Developing future light-duty vehicle regulations in California Annette Hebert Chief, Emissions Compliance, Automotive Regulations and Science (ECARS) Division California Air Resources Board August 1, 2017 1
California s Midterm Review Conclusions Joint Agency Review Supported Adopted MY 2022-2025 GHG standards, if Not Room for Strengthening PM standard is feasible but further action needed to ensure robust control Continue with existing technology-forcing ZEV requirements to develop the market Direct staff to immediately begin rule development for MY 2026 and beyond 2
NOx Emissions (tons per day) GHG Emissions (MMTCO2e/yr) Still need large emission reductions beyond current programs NOx, South Coast, All Sources GHGs, Statewide, All Sources 600 600 500 400 Current Programs 500 400 Reference Scenario 1990 Level 300 200 100 0 2023 South Coast Target 2031 South Coast Target 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 300 200 100 SB 32 40% Reduction Exec Order 80% Reduction 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 3
NOx Emissions (Tons per Day) GHG Emissions (mmtco 2 E/yr) Further emission reductions needed from all sectors, including light-duty vehicles 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 NOx, South Coast Under Current Programs 2023 2012 2017 2025 2035 Year Areawide Stationary Other Mobile Sources Heavy-Duty Vehicles Light-Duty Vehicles SIP Targets 2031 Source: CEPAM 2016 SIP, https://www.arb.ca.gov/app/emsinv/fcemssumcat/fcemssumcat2016.php Light-Duty Vehicles All Other Transportation Agriculture Residential & Commercial Electric Power Industrial High GWP Recycling and Waste Targets 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 GHGs, Statewide Under Current Programs AB 32 SB 32 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Note: CARB 2030 Scoping Plan contains strategies for achieving 2030 GHG target, https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2030sp_pp_final.pdf Exec Order 4
Statewide On-road Vehicle Population (Millions) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 - What might the light-duty sector need to do to achieve needed reductions? By 2050, 100% sales of ZEVs and PHEVs ICE+HEVs By 2030, 4M to 4.5M ZEVs and PHEVs on the road FCEV BEV PHEV 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Calendar Year Compared to MY2025 vehicles, MY2035 vehicle emissions would be: ~50% lower GHGs (emission rate declines 5-7% year-over-year) ~40% lower NOx Significant increases in renewable fuel feedstocks and energy generation Slower growth of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) from light-duty vehicles 5
Global Actions and Commitments to Electrification/Low Carbon Vehicles Government Goals/Policies China Developing a version of the ZEV regulation Québec Province Adopted a ZEV regulation Netherlands, Norway Goal of 100% ZEVs and PHEVs by 2025 Germany Goal of 100% ZEVs and PHEVs by 2030 France, United Kingdom Ban of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040 Governors Brown (CA), Brown (OR), and Inslee (WA) with Fiji Prime Minister joining Under2 Coalition 6
Industry Commitments to Electrification/Low Carbon Vehicles Automaker Goals Volvo Hybridize/Electrify all new models beginning 2019 Ford 13 new electrified vehicles by 2020 Daimler 10 new electrified vehicles by 2022 Volkswagen 30 new e-vehicles by 2025 Honda 2/3 of sales HEV, PHEV, or ZEV by 2030 Toyota Reduce global average new-vehicle CO 2 emissions by 90 percent by 2050 7
Leading by example: Complementary Policies California has an unwavering commitment to ZEVs and multi-agency ZEV Action Plan Upping state government s ZEV purchases to 50 percent by 2025 Adding approximately 1,500 new ZEVs to the state fleet Expanding vehicle charging infrastructure to at least 5 percent of workplace parking spaces at state facilities Adding approximately 4,500 new charging stations California invest over $100 million annually Infrastructure, purchase incentives, fleets, outreach campaigns 8
Moving forward Working on 2026 and subsequent model year standards for further criteria and GHG reductions, as well as increases in ZEVs on the road based on these guiding principles: Real-world emission reductions Increased certainty of future ZEV volumes Similar or lower system-wide emissions from new mobility options Implementation feasibility (costs, jobs, infrastructure, consumers) Next Steps Call for concepts to help solicit ideas on vehicle regulations in future years Stakeholder meetings and workgroups Public workshop to be held early 2018 Tentative 2020 Rulemaking for 2026 and beyond model years 9