Latest news Overview Thai airports' 2017 air passenger traffic rises CDU maintenance at Kuwait's Mina al-ahmadi refinery Tupras issues tender to buy jet fuel Florida jet fuel shipments not interstate: judge US jet stocks up by 763,000 bl: EIA Singapore jet fuel swaps fell less than Dubai crude. Singapore jet prices this month were the highest since May 2015. Northwest European jet fuel cargo and barge premiums to Ice February gasoil rose sharply as a result of tightening regional supply. US jet fuel differentials mostly gained on Wednesday, despite the release of inventory data which showed a build in nationwide inventories. News Thai airports' 2017 air passenger traffic rises Passenger throughput at Thailand's airports rose in 2017, driven by the country's flourishing tourism industry and frequent visits from Asian travellers. Thailand airports hosted 133.12mn passengers in 2017, 9.4pc more than in 2016. International passenger throughput rose by 10.8pc from a year earlier to 75.79mn. The airports hosted 57.33mn domestic passengers in 2017, 7.6pc higher than in 2016. Passenger throughput using low-cost carriers increased by 14.2pc from a year earlier to 62.49mn. The airports handled 1.64mn t of air freight and mail in 2017, 9.5pc up on 2016. There were 833,082 aircraft movements in 2017 at Thai airports, a 5.4pc increase from 2016. Price summary Price $/t Singapore 193.81 641.27 81.40* South Korea 193.69 640.88 81.35* Mideast Gulf 190.24 629.45 79.90* Rotterdam 199.39 659.75* 83.75 New York 202.64* 663.94 85.11 Houston 196.26* 643.05 82.43 Los Angeles 202.76* 664.35 85.16 Change on day $/t Singapore -0.95-3.15 +1.69* South Korea -1.19-3.94 +1.69* Mideast Gulf -0.95-3.15 +1.69* Rotterdam +0.68 +1.69* +0.29 New York +0.04* +0.15 +0.02 Houston +0.43* +1.41 +0.18 Los Angeles +0.68* +2.23 +0.29 *assessed unit New York barge prompt jet fuel 220 210 200 190 180 170 Contents News 1-5 Argus Market Map 5 Commentary 6-7 hhhh 27 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 29 Dec 17 31 Jan 18
There were 401,829 low-cost carrier aircraft movements in 2017, a 12.3pc increase from 2016. CDU maintenance at Kuwait's Mina al-ahmadi refinery Kuwait s 440,000 b/d Mina al-ahmadi refinery is undergoing planned maintenance at its third crude distillation unit, which has a 120,000 b/d capacity. The turnaround will likely last for 30 days, although this could not be confirmed. As part of a near $16bn clean fuels project (CFP), the Mina al-ahmadi refinery is being integrated with the 265,000 b/d Mina Abdullah refinery. The goal is to raise their combined capacity to 800,000 b/d through the expansion of the latter and boost output of higher quality fuels. Problems with the integration of the Mina al-ahmadi refinery mean that the CFP is facing a delay of 2-4. Kuwait's state-owned refiner KNPC had expected to complete the venture by [the end of 2018]. Tupras issues tender to buy jet fuel Turkish refiner Tupras has issued a tender to buy 30,000t of jet fuel. The tender is for delivery 1-10 February cif Aliaga. Market participants said it would close in a few days. An earlier tender issued by Algerian state-owned refiner Sonatrach was awarded to Spanish firm Cepsa, for 30,000t of jet fuel. The cargo will load in Skikda around 15 February and was bought at a $13/t premium to fob Med High. Announcement Argus successfully completes annual Iosco assurance review Argus has completed the sixth external assurance review of its price benchmarks covering crude, products, biofuels, thermal coal, coking coal, natural gas, biomass and petrochemicals benchmarks. The review was carried out by professional services firm PwC. Annual independent, external reviews of oil benchmarks are required by international regulatory group Iosco s Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies, and Iosco encourages extension of the reviews to non-oil benchmarks. For more information and to download the review visit our website http://www.argusmedia.com/about-argus/ How-We-Work/ Egyptian state-owned EGPC issued a rare tender earlier this month to sell 27,500t jet fuel fob el Dekheila loading at the end of February. The tender closed today. Market participants said the Mediterranean was well supplied with around five cargoes on offer over the next month, which are currently unplaced. Florida jet fuel shipments not interstate: judge Interstate tariffs should not apply to Florida pipeline deliveries of jet fuel delivered by vessel from other US states, a federal administrative law judge has decided. Airlines last year sought Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authority over tariffs on the Central Florida Pipe Line, delivering from Tampa to Orlando, Florida. Because the state lacks refineries, movements to and through storage into the pipeline were essentially part of a larger interstate effort, they argued. And because the state lacks a regulator of pipeline tariffs or administration, the airlines wanted a federal avenue to dispute pipeline operator Kinder Morgan's policies. But jet fuel delivered from other states by barge or tanker rested for testing in Tampa storage before entering the pipeline, breaking the flow of product and making the movement intrastate, an administrative law judge said this week. FERC trial staff agreed with Kinder Morgan in the case, finding that the movements were not subject to the Interstate Commerce Act. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and UPS had not proven that products move continuously from US Gulf coast docks to Orlando and other airports inside the state, the judge said. Product waits for testing and co-mingles in storage for 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 New York jet fuel premium to WTI crude $/t 3 Aug 17 2 Oct 17 30 Nov 17 31 Jan 18 hh Page 2 of 8
Argus global spot market prices Daily spot prices Contract averages Differentials Prices Prior week Prior month Current MTD Asia-Pacific Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean Singapore fob cargo Prompt Mops +0.20 +0.40 +0.30 81.30 81.50 81.40 81.99 75.45 81.00 South Korea fob cargo Prompt Mops +0.15 +0.35 +0.25 81.25 81.45 81.35 82.15 75.73 81.22 Japan c+f cargo Prompt - - - 82.85 83.05 82.95 83.54 77.26 82.58 Mideast Gulf Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean Mideast Gulf fob cargo Prompt Mopag +1.40 +1.60 +1.50 79.80 80.00 79.90 80.54 73.74 79.55 Mideast Gulf fob diff to Ice Prompt Ice -0.60-0.40-0.50 - - - -0.88-1.88-1.20 Africa Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean Durban c+f cargo $/t Prompt 646.23 646.43 646.33 650.79 600.95 642.26 West Africa delivered $/t Prompt 681.75 684.95 631.70 676.47 FSU Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean Moscow formula incl VAT Rbs/t Prompt - - - - - 37,482.00 38,386.00 36,180.24 38,054.76 Moscow formula ex VAT $/t Prompt Ice - - -47.22 - - 564.28 576.91 521.57 569.43 Moscow spot fit incl VAT Rbs/t Prompt - - - 42,500 45,100 43,800 43,800 44,050.00 43,828.13 Moscow spot cpt ex VAT $/t Prompt - - - 639.84 678.98 659.41 658.28 636.32 656.49 Chimkent fca incl VAT $/t Prompt - - - - - - 781.90 756.69 776.59 Pavlodar fca incl VAT $/t Prompt - - - - - - na na na Europe Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean High High High Northwest Europe fob cargo $/t Prompt - - - 651.00 652.00 651.50 659.25 603.75 649.42 Northwest Europe cif cargo $/t Prompt +0.00 +47.75 +48.75 +48.25 659.25 660.25 659.75 666.80 612.24 657.41 Northwest Europe fob barge $/t Prompt +0.00 +46.25 +46.75 +46.50 657.75 658.25 658.00 661.50 610.49 653.41 Mediterranean fob cargo $/t Prompt - - - - 641.00 642.00 641.50 648.75 594.93 638.82 Mediterranean cif cargo $/t Prompt Ice +45.75 +46.75 +46.25 657.25 658.25 657.75 664.80 611.24 655.73 Mediterranean cif diff to Med fob $/t Prompt fob +15.75 +16.75 +16.25 - - - +16.55 +16.80 +17.41 US Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean New York cif waterborne 54 grade Prompt Mar -4.25-3.75-4.00 202.39 202.89 202.64 206.72 193.68 203.82 New York del Colonial 54 grade cycle 4 Feb -4.50-4.00-4.25 202.42 202.92 202.67 206.54 193.00 203.50 New York fob barge 54 grade Prompt Mar -4.25-3.75-4.00 202.39 202.89 202.64 206.59 193.68 203.79 New York fob Buckeye 54 grade Prompt Mar -4.25-3.75-4.00 202.39 202.89 202.64 206.59 193.68 203.79 Philadelphia fob Laurel 54 grade Prompt Mar -4.25-3.75-4.00 202.39 202.89 202.64 206.59 193.68 203.79 del Port Everglades, FL 54 grade Prompt - - - - - - 202.52 205.85 188.34 201.84 del Tampa, FL 54 grade Prompt - - - - - - 202.04 205.37 188.10 201.45 US Gulf fob waterborne 54 grade Prompt Mar -9.50-8.75-9.12 197.14 197.89 197.52 200.85 183.31 196.89 US Gulf fob Colonial 54 grade cycle 8 Mar -10.75-10.00-10.38 195.89 196.64 196.26 199.60 182.06 195.64 US Gulf fob Colonial 54 wgt avg Prompt Mar - - -10.45 - - 196.19 199.55 182.05 195.61 Tulsa fob Group Three Q grade Prompt Feb 0.00 +3.00 +1.50 206.92 209.92 208.42 211.51 191.93 206.18 Chicago fob Prompt Mar +1.00 +2.00 +1.50 207.64 208.64 208.14 213.59 189.55 207.84 Los Angeles fob Prompt Mar -4.50-3.25-3.88 202.14 203.39 202.76 205.66 185.98 202.09 LAX fob Prompt Mar -4.75-3.50-4.12 201.89 203.14 202.52 205.41 185.73 201.84 San Francisco fob Prompt Mar -6.00-4.75-5.38 200.64 201.89 201.26 204.16 184.48 200.59 Argus US Jet Fuel Index Prompt - - - - - 202.45 206.36 187.82 202.34 Latin America Timing Basis Low High Mean Low High Mean Mean Mean Mean del east coast Mexico Prompt - - - 198.35 199.10 198.72 202.61 185.59 199.11 del Rosarito Prompt - - - 204.77 205.52 205.14 209.25 193.57 206.42 del Lazaro Cardenas Prompt - - - 203.36 204.11 203.74 208.04 192.36 205.20 more than a week before pipeline shipments out of Tampa, breaking the movement into an intrastate shipment, the judge wrote. But FERC may need to review the standards it uses to determine interstate versus intrastate shipments, and should consider airline arguments that Kinder Morgan was over-recovering costs by 56.7pc, the judge added. Kinder Morgan said it was pleased with the decision and with its chances before the commission. Airline representatives could not be immediately reached for comment. US jet stocks up by 763,000 bl: EIA US jet fuel inventories rose by 763,000 bl for the week ended 26 January, according to data from the Energy Information Page 3 of 8
Argus jet fuel forward curve Singapore cargo swap Northwest Europe cargo swap $/t New York barge Houston Colonial pipeline Timing Mean Change Mean Change Timing Mean Change Timing Mean Change Month 1 81.25-0.45 47.00 +2.25 Prompt 202.64 +0.04 cycle 8 196.26 +0.43 Month 2 80.75-0.50 46.25 +1.50 10 days fwd 202.64 +0.05 cycle 9 196.02 +0.36 Month 3 80.35-0.50 46.00 +1.50 15 days fwd 202.64 +0.05 cycle 10 195.76 +0.28 Quarter 1 79.95-0.40 46.00 +1.50 20 days fwd 202.64 +0.05 cycle 11 195.52 +0.20 Quarter 2 79.00-0.40 44.50 +0.50 Quarter 3 78.05-0.50 Spot market deals done Market Spec Timing Basis Price Volume fob ARA Jet A-1 5-9 Feb Ice gasoil Feb 46 3000 t fob ARG Jet A-1 11-15 Feb Mops -4 3000 t NYH Buckeye Jet A 5 Feb Mar Nymex -4 25000 bl NYH Buckeye Jet A 5 Feb Mar Nymex -4 25000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -11 25000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -11 25000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -11 25000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -11 50000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -11 50000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -10 50000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -10 200000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -10 50000 bl USGC Colonial Jet A 8th Cycle Mar Nymex -10 50000 bl LA Jet A Feb Mar Nymex -4 25000 bl LA Jet A Feb Mar Nymex -4 25000 bl LA Jet A Feb Mar Nymex -3 25000 bl Argus jet fuel premium to gasoil Prior week Prior month Prior three Prior six Singapore jet vs 0.5% +0.96 +1.33 +1.66 +1.30 Rotterdam jet vs 0.1% +2.84 +1.92 +2.27 +2.45 Houston jet vs heating oil +2.81 +3.40 +3.33 +4.77 Argus jet fuel premium to crude Prior week Prior month Prior three Prior six Singapore jet vs Dubai +15.06 +13.84 +13.27 +13.20 Rotterdam jet vs Brent +14.60 +13.51 +13.75 +13.86 Houston jet vs WTI +18.73 +18.53 +17.96 +18.20 Related markets Nymex heating oil benchmark Ice gasoil Nymex WTI Ice Brent benchmark $/t Feb 18 206.92 611.50 settlement settlement Mar-18 206.64 612.50 64.73 69.05 Apr-18 205.47 610.75 64.56 68.89 May-18 204.06 606.75 64.31 68.57 Jun-18 202.94 603.00 63.96 68.24 Jul-18 202.39 600.75 63.53 67.87 Aug-18 201.83 598.50 63.02 67.50 Sep-18 201.58 596.75 62.49 67.11 Oct-18 201.29 595.25 61.97 66.71 Dec-18 201.02 589.75 61.01 65.83 Dec-19 196.10 576.50 56.72 61.81 Dec-20 194.30 567.75 54.12 59.17 Dec-21 194.69 559.25 52.64 57.65 Dec-22 576.75 52.13 57.14 Administration (EIA). At 41.614mn bl, inventories stand about 888,000 bl below where inventories stood the same week last year, and about 4.95pc above the five-year average. Demand for the fuel was mostly stable, dropping by 9,000 b/d to 1.622mn b/d. Imports of the fuel into the US rose last week, by 100,000 b/d to 197,000 b/d. At the US Atlantic coast, jet fuel inventories rose by 93,000 b/d to 115,000 b/d, while at the west coast, imports rose by 7,000 b/d to 82,000 b/d. Exports of jet fuel were down by 120,000 b/d to 87,000 b/d last week. Page 4 of 8
Argus Market Map W: +1.77 M: +2.82 W: +6.16 M: +5.24 W= Prior week M= Prior month Delta Outright W: +6.06 M: +3.92 Houston W: 199.60 M: 182.06 W: +6.99 M: +11.62 W: +5.22 M: +8.80 Rotterdam W: 201.37 M: 184.88 W: +5.46 M: +5.23 W: +9.61 M: +9.31 W: +4.16 M: +4.08 W: +3.45 M: +4.07 W: +10.45 M: +6.34 Singapore W: 195.21 M: 179.64 Geographic comparisons First center less second center Price spreads in Price spreads in $/t Prior week Prior month Prior three Prior six Prior week Prior month Prior three Prior six Rotterdam Singapore +6.16 +5.24 +5.93 +5.82 +20.38 +17.34 +19.63 +19.25 Los Angeles Singapore +10.45 +6.34 +8.65 +11.45 +27.92 +14.96 +22.75 +32.26 Singapore Mideast Gulf +3.45 +4.07 +4.00 +3.98 +11.42 +13.47 +13.24 +13.16 Rotterdam Mideast Gulf +9.61 +9.31 +9.93 +9.79 +31.81 +30.82 +32.86 +32.41 Mediterranean Mideast Gulf +4.16 +4.08 +5.45 +5.69 +13.76 +13.51 +18.04 +18.82 Rotterdam Mediterranean +5.46 +5.23 +4.48 +4.11 +18.05 +17.31 +14.82 +13.59 New York Rotterdam +5.22 +8.80 +4.37 +6.32 +10.58 +22.85 +8.53 +15.27 Rotterdam Houston +1.77 +2.82 +4.27 +1.46 +12.32 +15.23 +19.78 +10.22 New York Houston +6.99 +11.62 +8.64 +7.78 +22.90 +38.07 +28.31 +25.49 Los Angeles Houston +6.06 +3.92 +6.99 +7.09 +19.86 +12.84 +22.90 +23.23 Jet fuel inventories at the US Atlantic coast rose by 924,000 bl to 10.046mn bl, while production was down by 6,000 b/d to 110,000 b/d. At the US Gulf coast, inventories fell by 63,000 bl to 13.452mn bl and production fell by 77,000 b/d. Midcontinent jet fuel inventories rose by 815,000 bl to 6.99mn bl. Production in the same region rose by 20,000 b/d to 247,000 b/d. Jet fuel inventories at the US Rocky Mountain region fell by 21,000 bl to 712,000 bl and production was stable at 37,000 b/d. At the US west coast region, jet fuel inventories fell by 892,000 bl to 10.414mn bl. Production at the west coast was up by 16,000 b/d to 436,000 b/d. Page 5 of 8
Market commentary Asia-Pacific Singapore jet fuel swaps fell less than Dubai crude. Singapore jet prices this month were the highest since May 2015. There were no physical deals done during afternoon trading in Singapore. There were no bids or offers as well. Fob Singapore jet fuel premiums were assessed at $0.20/bl against Singapore spot assessments. Fob Singapore cargo prices reached $80/bl this month following the crude price trend and further supported by seasonal demand. The last time fob Singapore jet cargo price touched this level was in May 2015 for a very short period. The February-March time spread widened by $0.20-0.25/bl to $0.45/bl level compared with last month in backwardation indicating high prompt month swap values. Relatively high jet prices have triggered airlines to raise passenger fuel surcharges for flights originating to/from Japan and possibly Taiwan and South Korea. Japanese airlines' fuel surcharge is assessed bimonthly, based on a two-month average of Singapore jet-kerosine prices. Fob South Korea cash differentials stayed at more than $0.20/bl against Singapore spot assessments. February-loading cargoes from South Korea and Japan have been secured and Japanese refiners are preparing to look at the early March loading market. Japan during the week ending 27 January raised jet fuel production to 1.71mn bl from 1.13mn bl the previous week, latest data from the Petroleum Association of Japan showed. Kerosine production at 2.34mn bl was lower by 18.9pc from the previous week, following the unexpected shutdown of two crude distillation units (CDUs) last week. Idemitsu shut down the 160,000 b/d Aichi refinery on 22 January because of a boiler issue, but CDU operations resumed yesterday. JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy closed the 145,000 b/d Sendai refinery on 25 January. Kerosine stocks were lower by 10.8pc at 10.65mn bl compared with the previous week, despite high winter season demand. Jet fuel cash differentials for cargoes loading from the Mideast Gulf are assessed higher at a mid-$1/bl level. The arbitrage economics of loading cargoes from west coast India and the Mideast Gulf to Europe remain unviable on paper. Jet Europe Northwest European jet fuel cargo and barge premiums to Ice February gasoil rose sharply as a result of tightening regional supply. Vitol bought two 3,000t barges. The first was from Glencore fob ARA loading 5-9 February at a $46.50/t premium to Ice February gasoil. Shell sold the same size barge fob Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Ghent loading 11-15 February at a $4/t discount to spot quotes. The barge premium rose by $5.50/t to reflect the value of the deal against Ice February gasoil. In the cargo market, there were five bids against a single offer, all against spot quotes or outside Argus' assessment period. Premiums to Ice February gasoil rose by $2.25/t to $48.25/t to reflect the move in swaps values. Supply is tightening in northwest Europe as a result of lower imports from the Mideast Gulf. And Kuwait s 440,000 b/d Mina al-ahmadi refinery is undergoing maintenance at its third CDU which could last around 30 days. In the Mediterranean, supply was said to be ample. There are around five cargoes on offer over the next month which Futures forward curve New York less Houston: 3-day moving avg 90 Nymex heating oil Nymex WTI Ice gasoil Ice Brent 16 14 80 12 70 60 10 8 6 hh 50 Feb 18 Jan 20 Dec 21 Nov 23 4 27 Oct 17 29 Nov 17 29 Dec 17 31 Jan 18 Page 6 of 8
are currently unplaced, market participants said. Turkish refiner Tupras has issued a tender to buy 30,000t of jet fuel. The tender is for delivery 1-10 February cif Aliaga and is expected to close in a few days. An earlier tender issued by Algerian state-owned refiner Sonatrach was awarded to Spanish firm Cepsa, for 30,000t of jet fuel. The cargo will load in Skikda around 15 February and was bought at a $13/t premium to fob Med high assessments. Egyptian state-owned EGPC issued a rare tender earlier this month to sell 27,500t jet fuel fob el Dekheila loading at the end of February. The tender closed on Wednesday. New York less Rotterdam: 3-day moving avg 50 40 30 20 10 0 hh Americas US jet fuel differentials mostly gained on Wednesday, despite the release of inventory data which showed a build in nationwide inventories. US jet fuel demand was mostly stable last week, dropping by 9,000 b/d to 1.622mn b/d. Jet fuel at the New York Harbor saw gains in differentials on Wednesday, despite the release of inventory data, which showed a 924,000 bl build in PADD I inventories last week. PADD I jet fuel inventories now stand at 10.046mn bl, about 925,000 bl below where stockpiles stood the same week last year. Buckeye pipeline jet fuel traded at March Nymex ULSD -4 / USG, while Colonial pipeline material continued to be talked at about a 0.25 discount to the Buckeye market. Jet fuel prices on the US Gulf coast rose by 0.43 to 196.27 on Wednesday, halting the two-session decline that saw prices fall to a week-low on Tuesday. Differentials for jet fuel moved 0.5 higher from Tuesday, trading from March Nymex -10.75 to -10 on scheduling day of the eighth cycle. US Gulf coast jet fuel rolls for cycles eight/nine traded at 0.3 and 0.20 backward, deepening the backwardation in the forward structure ahead of the cycle change. Chicago jet fuel cash differentials continued to decline Wednesday as offers for jet fuel originating at the Citgo East Chicago terminal fell to March Nymex +2 for first-cycle February shipping. Chicago jet cash differentials fell by 1 from Tuesday s market. Outright prices fell by 1.07, reflecting the slight fall in the March Nymex ULSD contract price. Group Three jet fuel cash differentials continued to hold steady as trade activity remains doggedly thin. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that regional jet fuel stocks posted a fall of 900,000 bl to 10.4mn bl in the week ending 26 January, yet levels remained 7.2pc higher than a year ago. -10 1 Aug 17 29 Sep 17 29 Nov 17 31 Jan 18 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 New York jet fuel less heating oil 0 New York jet fuel: Differential range of trade 0 3 Aug 17 2 Oct 17 30 Nov 17 31 Jan 18 26 Dec 17 8 Jan 18 19 Jan 18 31 Jan 18 Los Angeles February jet fuel traded between March Nymex -4.5 and -3.25, reversing Tuesday s losses. Cash prices gained 0.7 to close at $2.03/USG. hh Page 7 of 8
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