Global Automotive Trends, Outlook & Observations

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Global Automotive Trends, Outlook & Observations Jeff Schuster LMC Automotive Senior Vice President, Global Vehicle November 10, 2016 2015 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 2 Global Automotive Influences North America Demand Environment and Trends North American Production Outlook and Sourcing Trends Summary

Global Headlines 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 3 DRIVEN TO NEGOTIATE: HOW UNIFOR RODE U.S. AUTO SALES TRUMP??? Auto Sales Starting to Hit the Brakes

Global LV Sales Recent Boots Driven by China World 2016 forecast: 93.1 mn, up 3.9 mn units (+4.4%) North America 6% 6% 1% 14 15 16F Western Europe 5% 9% 6% 14 15 16F C&E Europe -2% -8% -13% 14 15 16F Asia Pacific 7% 5% 3% 14 15 16F South America 14 15 16F World China 2016 -Top Countries LV Sales (Millions) 27.6-11% -11% 4% 2% 4% US Japan 4.8 17.4-21% 14 15 16F Germany India 3.6 3.4 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 4

Global Production Growth is in Near-term 97 95 93 91 89 87 88.7.37.28.27.13.06 -.01 92.6 93.7 93.7 Volume expected to be up 4.3% in 2016, on strong growth in China due to boost in demand from tax cut. 2017 growth slows to 1.1% on China s pull forward impact spills over to production (-500K decline). Growth slows in WE with volume up a marginal 6K on Brexit uncertainty, while Central and Easter Europe see growth across much of the region, including recovery starting in Russia (+11%). Brazil also expected to start recover in 2017, up 8% but remaining risky. NA continues localization trend and expansion into Mexico, but growth only at 1.5% for year. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 5

Short-Term Capacity Utilization Capacity Utilization takes a hit in 2016 on struggling South America and East Europe. China s low utilization a function of heavy investment without consolidation of old capacity. 73.1% Global 68.2% 2013 2016 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 92.3% 92.7% 74.6% 81.5% 79.6% 65.8% 66.2% 68.8% 79.4% 57.1% 59.5% 36.4% 2013 2016 NA SA WE EE China Japan 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 6

8% 6% 4% 2% Global OEMs - Short-term Outlook Global Production Growth from 2015 Global OEM leads with mixed 2 groups dip into negative growth. VW diesel scandal risk - China growth and US prod. stability driving pace. Toyota is exposed in Japan but RAV4 and C-HR in EE doing well. R-N growth with new product barrage - Lannia in China, Kwid in India. 0% -2% -4% -6% VW Toyota Ren-Nis Hyundai/Kia GM Ford Honda FCA PSA Suzuki/Maruti Daimler BMW SAIC GM up with expansion in China (Cadillac). Ford flat with weakness across Europe and exposure in BR/AR. Honda tops growth Fit/Freed MPV in Japan and CR- V/Ridgeline in NA. FCA gains with Alfa expansion and Fiat Egea in EE, but falls in NA/SA. Suzuki transition in Asia ceases in Malaysia, down in Japan, growth in India. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 7

15% 10% Will Global Growth be Sustained? Year-on-year growth, World LV Sales GDP Average historical growth rates LV Sales: 3.1% GDP: 2.9% 5% 2016: 93 mn 2023: 111 mn 0% -5% -10% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average 2015-2023 growth rates LV Sales: 2.7% GDP: 2.7%, Oxford Economics 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 8

13.6% 0.8% Other 13.9% 1.9% 4.2% Iran 6.2% 5.3% India 4.1% 10.9% S Korea 7.6% 24.7% Japan 30.2% China 2.5% Russia 1.8% 15.0% WE 13.8% 4.1% Brazil 2.9% 19.0% NA 17.6% 2013 2023 Mature production hubs (NA, WE, Japan, S Korea) continue to lose ground as Emerging hubs expand further. Exception - Russia and Brazil not expected to return to 2013 levels. 44 new factories in China, averaging 150k of volume by 2023 drives growth lead; India adds 5 since 2013, but nothing new planned from 2016-2023. Iran gain due to restart of production after sanctions lifted then expansion. Global LV Production Spreading Resources Share of Global Production 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 9

Global Platforms Push to Globalization 700 600 Total # of Platforms (LHA) Top 10 % of Ttl Prdxn (RHA) 27% 25% 500 23% 400 300 200 Push to global consolidation: Top-10 platform share increases even though total platform count increases 21% 19% 100 17% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 15% 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 10

Trend in Primary Design Lead Location 2013 2023 Other USA China 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% France Germany Shift in primary design lead location is consistent with push toward global modular platforms. Germany and Japan dominate volume scale, with most design coordinated from headquarters. China gains on maturing Chinese industry and volume, while US and Korea contract slightly. Korea Japan Italy Secondary design remains important and will drive some sourcing decisions. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 11

Global Body Type Movement from Cars to SUVs 6.9% 2013 Traditional Car MAV/MPV 2023 5.3% 19.7% 10.5% 52.6% Pickup Sporty Car 32.7% 42.7% SUV 9.5% 1.4% 8.8% 1.6% 8.3% SUVs grow to 1/3 of all light vehicles by 2023, coming mainly from traditional cars (sedans, wagons), but most body types lose share over forecast horizon. Only other body type to grow on a global scale is Sporty Car, with volume growth spread across all regions. Volume and growth dominated by German Premium Sporty and American Muscle. In addition, Honda, Hyundai and Mazda expand in segment. Pickup volume expands by 1.5mn units over period, with growth concentrated in Asia and North America. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 12

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 13 Global Automotive Influences North America Demand Environment and Trends North American Production Outlook and Sourcing Trends Summary

North America GDP Snapshot Trending Lower! 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% US Canada Mexico 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US Q3 real GDP growth stands at 2.9% (in line with the BEA). Moderating growth expected in 4Q (closer to 2%). Oct Jobs was upbeat, adding 161,000 but labor market is maturing which will likely lower consumer spending to 2%. GDP growth expected to average a soft 1.5% for 2016 and around 2% in 2017 and 2018. Canada We expect downbeat GDP growth of 1.2% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, supported by slowly strengthening non-energy activity and a fading drag from the energy sector. Debt levels and low oil prices could be further drag. Mexico GDP growth of 2.0% in 2016, but lower uptick in 2017 and 2018 (2.5%) amid lower growth in the US. The job market remains strong but inflation is starting to rise from low levels. Source: Oxford Economics 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 14

NA Demand Summary 17.0 18.3 19.4 +6.2% +1.2% +0.2% 20.7 21.0 21.0 21.8 Millions 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2023-0.2% 2016: 17.42mn 2016: +2.1% 1.94mn +17.8% 2016: 1.58mn 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 15

October sales came in slightly ahead of expectations with an 18 million unit SAAR. However, YTD sales are off 0.1% from 2015 and retail demand is off 1.7%. 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 2000 US LV sales Monthly Selling Rate (SAAR) Trend 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 16 2008 2009 2010 2011 SAAR Moving Average Annual 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US LV Sales Driven by Multitude of Factors Volume Total Sales 16.5mn 13.6mn Total Sales 17.4mn Growth in Fleet/Contraction in Retail Fleet at 19.5%, up from 18% in 2015 14.2mn Total Sales 17.4mn 14.0mn Risk 13.8mn -1.3% YoY 2014 2015 1. Disposable Income Source: JDP PIN, LMC Automotive 2. Unemp. 3. Housing Market Macro Factors 4. Stock Market 5. Fuel Prices 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 17 6. Credit/ Terms 7. Vehicle Equity 8. 9. Vehicle Price Incentive Actions 10. Product Activity Consumer Internals & OEM Drivers 2016F

2016 US Sales Segment Share Movement 1.8% 38.8% share SUV growth slows from very strong 2015, but gains on small/compact demand, expanded lineups, favorable fuel prices. Pickups continue to gain ground 0.5% given low gas prices and new products. 15.0% share 1.4% 13.8% share 0.0% 12.3% share After falling 1 ppt. in 2015, D-Segment Cars continue to lose share to SUV demand. SUVs gain, but lower compact car demand hurts Premium. 0.5% 7.1% share Vans gain from new Pacifica, Metris, plus Transit. SUVs cut into personal MPV market. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 18

US Demand Still Expected to Grow? 20 19 18 17 16 17.4 17.4 17.9 17.5 17.7 17.9 15 14 15.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Baseline US LV topline is expected to grow at a CAGR of just 0.3% from 2015-2023 with 2017 now expected to be lower than 2016. Slow (>2%) economic growth supporting long run in autos! Risks to baseline include lease maturities (used car substitute), tighter credit and trade/fiscal policies. Negative bias with recession scenario - mild with short duration as volume falls to 15.4mn in 2019, a 12% drop from baseline. Recovery may be hampered by lower density growth, car sharing and regulations impact. Outperform scenario Near-term up from VW buyback and lease maturities followed by technology driven increase as market transitions. CAGR still only 0.8%. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 19

More SUVs are Coming! New SUV Entries SUV Mix of Majors/Minors Number of New Entries 25 20 15 10 5 0 22 23 18 19 17 14 15 13 13 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 150 New Entries/Majors/Minors! 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 20

Collision Course Not So Fast? 30% Consumers want SUVs! US Sales SUV share 36% 39% 40%+ Thousands 500 400 300 200 YTD Sep Hybrid/EV Sales Down! YTD Sep16-5% YTD Sep10 YTD Sep15 YTD Sep16 2020F Regulation coming tougher on cars to hit milestones 100 0 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 1Q06 Price of Oil to 2025 1Q08 1Q10 1Q12 1Q14 1Q16 1Q18 1Q20 1Q22 1Q24 Expected price of oil will not drive push toward compact car EVs SUVs continue to grow but will likely need stronger EV penetration Pickups have place in future, share expected to hold at 15% 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 21

US Large Pickup Market Will Remain Steady Volume (mn) 3.0 2.0 1.0 Large Pickup Volume Segment Share Volume and share level off as overall market growth flattens and Midsize Pickup gains entrants 16% 14% 12% 10% # of Entries 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Avalanche Exits 15 10 5 0 Dodge to Ram transition 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 22 8%

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 23 Global Automotive Influences North America Demand Environment and Trends North American Production Outlook and Sourcing Trends Summary

Short-term Production Outlook North America NA growth up 2.4% on the year with 16 new entries or in first full year. Some pressure on Q4 given plant shutdowns, 2H growth now expected less than 2%, down from 2.9% in 1H. 2017 outlook remains solid but lower growth rates (1.8%), given flattening of demand, but launch activity remains strong - New entries and Redesigns increase to 33 from 23 in 2016. Millions 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 17.5 Drops New Entries 0.20 0.42 Additional Growth 0.22 17.9 18.2 14.0 2015 2016 2017 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 24

Inventory is in Check 4.0 100 Inventory (millions) 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 80 60 40 20 Days Supply 3.0 0 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-15 Inventory very stable and in good shape through September at a 64-day supply suggesting industry has not started an overbuild as demand flattens out though there are some trouble spots in certain vehicle types. Interplay between inventory levels and incentives will be key indicator. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 25

NA Short-Term Production by OEM Group 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Tesla Hyundai Fuji Heavy Daimler 2016 2017 GM R/N Toyota Industry VW Ford BMW FCA Hyundai/Kia localizing at Monterrey plant drives growth, Montgomery adds Santa Fe. GM 16 gains on strong SUV and Pickup volume and new CT6/Bolt; 17 falls on lower Car and Large PU/SUV output. Ford declines in 16 on slowing Car demand and Compact SUV competition; 17 under pressure but slight growth with new Continental. VW for 16 under pressure, helped by new Audi capacity; 17 adds needed SUVs. FCA 16 off with Toluca and Sterling Heights downtime; 17 falls on drops/sourcing shifts/changeovers. Toyota 16 up with localized ES-Series and expanded Highlander output; 17 declines on Camry changeover, Venza and GCC Sequoia end. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 26

NA Production and Capacity Long-term Trend Demand level adds stability layer through horizon. Localization and exports drive production expansion. Some relief in the mid- to long-term, but utilization holds just below 90%. Millions 25 20 15 10 5 0 Production Excess Capacity Utilization 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 27

NA Production Volume Growth by Segment Thousands 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Compact SUV Midsize SUV Compact Premium Car Top 5 Volume Gainers/Losers 2015-2021 Small Car Compact Car Midsize Sporty SUVs will account for the majority of gain in total NA output, given increased demand and numerous new entries. Compact and Small gain while Large Cars and Large SUVs are under pressure from market preferences and regulations. Compact MPV Van/MPV Large SUV Midsize Car Large Car Volume Delta by Bodystyle 2015-2021 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 28 SUV Car Pickup Sporty Thousands

North America Capacity and Sourcing Movement Millions 18.7 2.4 3.7 USA Mexico Canada 22.4 2.4 5.7 12.6 14.3 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2015 2023 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 7 new plants and investments in 3 others in Mexico to account for 55% of new capacity US production in transition to trucks and SUVs adds 5 new plants (3 low volume) and 10+ with capacity investment. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 29 85% 13% 3% NAFTA Costs and lack of incentives hurt Canada However, Unifor contract keeps Oshawa 2 alive and get investment from Ford in Essex and FCA for Brampton. 67% 19% 14% 63% 27% 10%

NA Production Shifts in Body Types Car Share SUV Share Premium Share 60% 40% 20% 0% US 2016 2023 Canada Mexico Industry 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% US 2016 2023 Canada Mexico Industry 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% US 2016 2023 Canada Mexico Industry 38 39 7 3 23 29 47 55 9 7 10 14 34 42 4 2 3 9 Car share falls slightly as another shift to trucks continues. Shift of small car to Mexico drives volume to increase to 4 million units by 2017. Consumer demand for SUVs drives significant expansion with volume reaching 40% of total NA production. US continues to dominate but expansion in Mexico leads to significant growth (140%). Strong capacity investment in Mexico, will drive production growth - Audi/BMW/MB-Infiniti investment. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 30

Global Platform Consolidation Continues Millions 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2015 (North America) 2015 (Global) 2023 (North America) 2023 (Global) 2015 Top 10 platforms accounted for 42% of NA production volume, by 2023 this is expected to increase to 50%. Scale, scope and complexity increases as platforms underpin variety of bodystyles, driveline configurations and powertrains. 2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 31

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 32 Global Automotive Influences North America Demand Environment and Trends North American Production Outlook and Sourcing Trends Summary

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 33 Summary China driving near-term global growth but expected to contract in 2017. Brexit is not over and poses a risk over mid-term. Russia and Brazil appear to be at bottom. US demand growth appears to be coming to a halt, with some risk for the remainder of the year. No evidence of major contraction coming, but long-term growth expected to average less than 0.5%. Number of entries increases as more SUVs and alternative fuel vehicles are added to the US market - with slowing demand, competition increases. North American production is on watch in Q4 2016 as OEMs align supply with slowing demand. North American production outpaces demand, investment still pouring in with volume into the 19 mn unit range. Launch activity is strong, though some risk with new plants being underutilized if demand slows further.

2016 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 34 Accurate real-time automotive intelligence, forecasting and analysis Thank You! JSchuster@lmc-auto.com