Energy in transports: quantification of impacts

Energy in transports: quantification of impacts Patrícia Baptista LAETA, IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa patricia.baptista@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 1

The analysis approach for your group work 1. Identify and characterize the case study 2. What is the question you are trying to answer? Improve efficiency, reduce cost or emissions, create new system? 3. Fully characterize the problem: - Fleet, route, mobility patterns, constrains, - Consumption, emissions, cost impacts 3. What alternative solutions are available - Technological - Mobility management - Change in behavior. 4. Characterize alternative solutions - Time, cost, energy, emissions, 5. Compare and conclude 2

LCA of vehicle technologies and energy sources 1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. 3. Materials Cradle-to-Grave (CTG) - the vehicle manufacturing, maintenance and recycling. 2. Well-to-Tank (WTT) - fuel production stage. 3

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. Quantify: - Energy consumption - CO 2 emissions - Local pollutants emissions: HC CO NO x PM Related to energy efficiency Very relevant in urban centers due to exposure and inhalation of pollutants with consequent health effects 4

EU market current situation Fuel consumption along time a) b) Emission targets in new vehicle sales 5

EU market current situation New vehicle sales ACEA 2015 6

Usage stage - Typical energy consumption values Energy content Gasoline Diesel CO 2 Emission factors Gasoline Diesel 31.76 MJ/l 35.95 MJ/l 2.31 kg/l 2.68 kg/l Typical energy consumption values Vehicle Vehicle energy consumption l/100km kwh/km MJ/km Urban passenger car (diesel) 7.0-2.52 Urban passenger car (gasoline) 9.0-2.86 Motorcycle (gasoline) 4.5-1.43 Electric vehicle - 0.16 0.58 Electric bicycle - 0.03 0.10 Segway - 0.03 0.12 Unicycle - 0.01 0.04 Urban bus (diesel) 40.0-14.38 Interurban bus (diesel) 30.0-10.79 Metro - 5.0 18.00 Surface Metro - 7.0 25.20 Suburban train - 10.0 36.00 Interurban train - 15.0 54.00 Ferry boat - - 302.00 Measure of vehicles energy efficiency But is this the right unit of analysis? 7

What is the occupancy rate of a bus and of a metro? 8

What is the occupancy rate of a bus and of a metro? Carris Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Offer Vehicle x Km (S.P.) (million) 42.2 40.1 39.7 40.6 41 41.6 41.4 38.2 34.5 32.8 Seat x Km (S.P.) (millions) 3856 3605 3534 3621 3716.9 3748.9 3727.5 3431.5 3124.8 2967.4 Demand Passengers (S.P.) (milllions) 256.6 240.8 234.9 236.4 234.4 224.2 223.4 215 180.9 174.5 Passengers x Km (S.P.) (millions) 796 776 768.9 758.3 786.1 732.7 737.7 709.9 590.4 542.5 Quality Average speed (Km/h) 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.6 Occupancy rate 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Average number of people in bus 18.9 19.4 19.4 18.7 19.2 17.6 17.8 18.6 17.1 16.5 Metro de Lisboa Year Carriages x km of exploration Seat x km Passenger x km (million) Average km per trip (km) Occupancy rate 2014 507 2802 745.6 5.3 27% 2013 497 2752 655.7 4.8 24% 2012 494 2730 745.6 4.8 27% 2011 668 3361 864.2 4.8 26% 2010 698 3511 865.5 4.7 25% 2009 638 4272 829.1 4.6 19% 2008 623 3968 835.4 4.6 21% 2007 599 3818 835.5 4.6 22% 2006 642 3865 855.5 4.6 22% 2005 649 3905 862.3 4.6 22% 2004 628 3776 801.2 4.4 21% 9

Usage stage - Typical energy consumption values Energy content Gasoline Diesel CO 2 Emission factors Gasoline Diesel Typical energy consumption values 31.76 MJ/l 35.95 MJ/l 2.31 kg/l 2.68 kg/l Occupancy rate = NNNNNN oo pppppppppp NNNNNN oo sssss MM kk NNNNNN oo ppppppppp = MM pppp. kk x 100 Vehicle Vehicle energy consumption Occupancy Vehicle energy consumption l/100km kwh/km MJ/km Seats Number of passenger Occupancy rate MJ/pass.km Urban passenger car (diesel) 7.0-2.52 5 1.3 25% 2.01 Urban passenger car (gasoline) 9.0-2.86 5 1.3 25% 2.29 Motorcycle (gasoline) 4.5-1.43 1 1.0 100% 1.43 Electric vehicle - 0.16 0.58 5 1.3 25% 0.46 Electric bicycle - 0.03 0.10 1 1.0 100% 0.10 Segway - 0.03 0.12 1 1.0 100% 0.12 Unicycle - 0.01 0.04 1 1.0 100% 0.04 Urban bus (diesel) 40.0-14.38 70 7.1 10% 2.01 Interurban bus (diesel) 30.0-10.79 50 37.5 75% 0.29 Metro - 5.0 18.00 230 57.5 25% 0.31 Surface Metro - 7.0 25.20 240 24.5 10% 1.03 Suburban train - 10.0 36.00 890 222.5 25% 0.16 Interurban train - 15.0 54.00 301 225.8 75% 0.24 Ferry boat - - 302.00 600 215.0 36% 1.40 10

Usage stage - Typical CO 2 emission values Energy content Gasoline Diesel CO 2 Emission factors Gasoline Diesel 31.76 MJ/l 35.95 MJ/l 2.31 kg/l 2.68 kg/l Typical energy consumption values Vehicle Vehicle energy consumption l/100km kwh/km MJ/km Urban passenger car (diesel) 7.0-2.52 Urban passenger car (gasoline) 9.0-2.86 Motorcycle (gasoline) 4.5-1.43 Electric vehicle - 0.16 0.58 Electric bicycle - 0.03 0.10 Segway - 0.03 0.12 Unicycle - 0.01 0.04 Urban bus (diesel) 40.0-14.38 Interurban bus (diesel) 30.0-10.79 Metro - 5.0 18.00 Surface Metro - 7.0 25.20 Suburban train - 10.0 36.00 Interurban train - 15.0 54.00 Ferry boat - - 302.00 Vehicle energy consumption MJ/pass.km 2.01 2.29 1.43 0.46 0.10 0.12 0.04 2.01 0.29 0.31 1.03 0.16 0.24 1.40 Vehicle CO 2 emissions g/km g/pass.km 187 150 208 167 104 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1071 150 803 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22498 105 11

Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) types of model Road transport sector Single vehicle Fleet http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2013/part-b-sectoralguidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-b-road-transport Rail transport http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2013/part-b-sectoralguidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-c-railways Air transport http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2013/part-b-sectoralguidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-a-aviation Maritime transport http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2013/part-b-sectoralguidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-d-navigation 12

Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) types of model Single vehicle Vehicle micro-simulation Road transport sector Fleet Fleet macro-simulation Fuel, HC, NO x, PM, CO version 9.1 Fuel, VOC, NO x, PM, CO, zinc, selenium, Ni, chromium, copper, cadmium, lead, Sulphur, NH 3, N 2 O 1985-2007 - March 2010 financed by the European Environment Agency (EEA), in the framework of the activities of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. 13

Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) types of model Single vehicle Vehicle micro-simulation PSAT PSAT (Powertrain Systems Analysis Toolkit) was developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory. Powerful modeling tool to evaluate not only fuel consumption but also vehicle performance using a dynamic and/or quasistatic approach. RAPTOR The Rapid Automotive Performance Simulator (RAPTOR) is a modular vehicle energy simulation software co- developed by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and DaimlerChrysler for use by automotive, truck, and bus developers and suppliers using dynamic approach combined with quasistatic approach. It uses mixed backward/forward-facing simulation. Road transport sector Fleet Fleet macro-simulation MOBILE6 Vehicle Emission Modeling Software http://www.epa.gov/otaq/m6.htm Emission factor model for predicting gram per mile emissions of HC, CO, NO x, CO 2, PM, and toxics from cars, trucks, and motorcycles under various conditions. MOBILE6 was designed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to address a wide variety of air pollution modeling needs. Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/moves 2010a/420b10036.pdf MOVES can be used to estimate national, state, and county level inventories of criteria air pollutants, greenhouse gas emissions, and some mobile source air toxics from highway vehicles. 14

Single vehicle models - vehicle micro-simulation software Maps efficiency, power, voltage, amperage (hidrogen) Maps fuel, temperature, emissions (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, biodiesel, ethanol, hidrogen) CO 2 HC CO NO x PM H 2 O Exhaust + CO 2 - HC - CO -NO x - PM H 2 O Fuel consumption (g/s; l/100km) Emissions (g/s; g/km) Maps efficiency, power, voltage, amperage (electricity) Driving cycle or type of driver (slow, fast, sportive) Speed/time schedule Energy required propolsion system Vehicle dynamics A/C on/off Number passengers/load Vehicle specifications Road grade 15

Single vehicle models - vehicle micro-simulation software ADVISOR - ADvanced VehIcle SimulatOR developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Simulation of conventional and advanced new vehicle technologies : ICEV FCV HEV BEV Estimations of: performance fuel economy and CO 2 powertrain energy flow and efficiencies tailpipe emissions (HC, CO, NO x, PM) 16

Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) Fleet impacts EU reference methodologies and emission factors for all transport modes: - EMEP/EEA guidebook 2013 17

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Fleet Fleet macro-simulation version 9.1 Fuel, VOC, NO x, PM, CO, zinc, selenium, Ni, chromium, copper, cadmium, lead, Sulphur, NH 3, N 2 O 1985-2007 - March 2010 financed by the European Environment Agency (EEA), in the framework of the activities of the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change. 18

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Emissions: E TOTAL = E HOT + E COLD + E EVAP E TOTAL = E URBAN + E RURAL + E HIGHWAY 19

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Calculations: E HOT (i, j, k) = N j M j, k e HOT(i, j, k) E COLD(i, j) = β i, j N j M j e HOT(i, j) (e COLD(i, j) / e HOT(i, j) 1) E EVA (j) = 365 N j (e d + S c + S fi ) + R N vehicles of class j M km traveled by the vehicles of class j and type of road k e HOT or e COLD emission factor in g/km for pollutant i, vehicle j, road k β i,k = fraction of mileage driven with a cold engine or the catalyst operated below the light-off temperature for pollutant i and vehicle technology k, e CCCC e HHH i,k = cold/hot emission quotient for pollutant i and vehicles of k technology. e d losses during day, temperature variations S losses with parked hot vehicle (c carburator, fi fuel injection) R losses during vehicle operation 20

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Vehicle technology and Age of vehicle influences emission factor 21

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Influence of speed on emissions factors 22

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 http://emisia.com/content/copert-download http://emisia.com/content/acquire-license-copert-4 23

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Register: Help, Register to obtain full use of software 24

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Characterize fleet: - Number of vehicles - Type of fuel (gasoline, diesel, natural gas...) - Engine displacement - Vehicle age (to relate with Euro Standards) Characterize context: - Fuels - Weather conditions - Driving context (percentage of km performed in urban, highway, rural conditions) - Average speed (km/h) 25

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Example of input data - fleet 26

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Example of input data usage characterization 27

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Create New fleet: File, New 28

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Create Country: Crountry, Select/Add Consider Ltrip (km)=12 29

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Weather Info: Country, Country Info Introduce maximum and minimum temperatures, RVP, and Calculate Beta 30

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Fuel Info: Country, Fuel Info (attention to alternative fuels, if you are considering them) Possibility to introduce specificities of fuels and to estimate of fuel consumption for comparison 31

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Introduce your fleet: Fleet configuration, Add/Delete vehicle 32

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Introduce your fleet: Fleet configuration, Add/Delete vehicle - Passenger Cars - Gasoline: <0.8l, 0.8-1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l - Diesel: <1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l - LPG - Natural Gas - Hybrid vehicles - Buses Mini, Standard, Articulated - Urban Buses - Coaches - Heavy duty vehicles (by ton) - Rigid - Articulated - Mopeds and Motorcycles - 2 or 4 strokes Euro standards (g/km) 33

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Introduce your fleet details: Activity data, Input fleet data (do it for all sectors) Copert works in a fleet basis, so work in the hundreds basis (e.g. Multiply by a factor of 10 and divide in the end) 34

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Introduce your circulation details: Activity data, Input Circulation data (do it for all sectors) 35

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Introduce more details: possibility to introduce influence of road slope, A/C usage, vehicle load, mileage degradation, etc only used if information is available Example: fleets performing logistics operations should account for vehicle load factor 36

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Calculate impacts: Emissions, Total Emissions - use All emissions (including all factors) option 37

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Compare with fuel estimate: Emissions, Fuel Balance 38

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Export data: File, Input/Export, Excel file Choose: - All vehicles - Inputs: Population and Mileage - Outputs: Total CO, Total VOC, Total NO X, Total PM exhaust, Total FC, Total CO 2 39

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle simulation tool, COPERT 4 Data processing: - All data in tons - Divide by 10 if a correction factor was used - Calculate the per vehicle and per km impacts for validation (number of vehicles in Population and kilometers in Mileage) - Calculate MJ/km or l/100km and compare with typical values - Calculate the g/km and compare with the Euro standards 40

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. Example of results: For which average speed is fuel consumption lower? 41

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. Example of results: For which average speed is fuel consumption lower? For the average Portuguese fleet 25 16 Energy consumption (l/100km) 20 15 10 5 y = 0.0025x 2-0.4068x + 24.509 R² = 0.9023 y = 0.0018x 2-0.29x + 18.042 R² = 0.9055 y = 0.0016x 2-0.245x + 15 R² = 0.897 Gasoline < 1.4l Gasoline 1.4l-2.0l Gasoline >2.0l Poly. (Gasoline < 1.4l) Poly. (Gasoline 1.4l-2.0l) Poly. (Gasoline >2.0l) Energy consumption (l/100km) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 y = 0.0015x 2-0.2323x + 15.477 R² = 0.9258 y = 0.0011x 2-0.1671x + 11.519 R² = 0.9243 diesel < 2l diesel >2l Poly. (diesel < 2l) Poly. (diesel >2l) 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 Av Speed (km/h) 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 Av Speed (km/h) 100 120 140 42

1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. Example of results: Case study of over 300 Bus fleet in the Lisbon area Fleet characterization + Usage conditions (average speeds and % between types) Urban Buses Midi Urban Buses Standard Urban Buses Aritculated Fuel consumption HC NOx CO PM l/100km g/km g/km g/km g/km Conventional Euro 1 Euro 2 15.42 0.32 4.35 0.87 0.08 Euro 3 16.37 0.29 3.71 1.13 0.10 Euro 4 14.58 0.04 2.22 0.58 0.02 Euro 5 15.50 0.02 2.02 0.10 0.02 Conventional 56.45 3.10 19.35 7.63 1.02 Euro 1 46.06 1.17 12.06 3.33 0.51 Euro 2 43.81 0.82 13.30 3.02 0.23 Euro 3 46.22 0.75 12.66 3.32 0.24 Euro 4 40.69 0.09 6.92 1.61 0.05 Euro 5 Conventional 67.62 3.38 23.99 9.46 1.25 Euro 1 57.20 1.32 15.22 4.39 0.63 Euro 2 55.21 0.90 16.54 4.27 0.30 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 44

LCA of vehicle technologies and energy sources 1. Tank-to-Wheel (TTW) - vehicle utilization stage related to driving the vehicle. 45

Summarizing, for group work analysis: 1. Characterization of fleet 2. Quantification of BAU impacts 3. Definition of alternative scenarios 4. Quantification of scenarios impacts 5. Analysis of results - Just energy consumption and CO 2 emissions energy consumption from fleet statistics and CO 2 emissions with average emission factor - Local pollutants vehicle age, engine displacement and fuel type must be available, as well as usage conditions, to run COPERT 4 46

For the analysis of scenarios results: 1. Why? Does it make any sense? 2. What are the advantages? - Time - Energy - Emissions 3. For energy source/vehicle technology shift: Is there fuel and vehicle available at a competitive price? Are there filling/charging stations? 4. Is legislation ready? 5. Who pays? Is there a sustainable business model? 6. Who wins? 47

Energy in transports: quantification of impacts Patrícia Baptista LAETA, IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa patricia.baptista@tecnico.ulisboa.pt 48