Automobile Manufacturers and E15 Approval Tracey King Renewable Fuels Association
Background After passage of EISA in 2007, U.S. Dept. of Energy began testing the impacts of mid-level ethanol blends (e.g., E20) on emissions control systems and durability. In October 2010, EPA issued a partial waiver allowing the use of E15 in MY2007 and newer vehicles In January 2011, EPA issued a second partial waiver allowing the use of E15 in MY2001-2006 vehicles
Nearly nine out of 10 light-duty vehicles are legally approved for E15 Approximately 87% of the current fleet is legally approved by EPA to consume E15 Assuming normal fleet turnover, close to 100% of fleet will be MY2001 or newer by 2022 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 62% 68% MY2001 or Newer (and FFVs): Share of U.S. Light-Duty Auto Fleet 87% 89% 91% 93% 94% 96% 98% 99% 84% 81% 77% 73% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Actual Projected Source: RFA analysis of data from EPA, FHWA, and Motor Intelligence
How did autos respond to EPA waivers? OEMs generally do not retroactively approve the use of fuels in legacy vehicles that were not tested or validated on the fuel Thus, OEMs did not recommend using E15 in legacy vehicles built prior to EPA waivers However, some OEMs reacted relatively quickly to EPA waivers GM approved E15 in MY2012 vehicles Ford approved E15 in MY2013 vehicles These two OEMs represent roughly one-third of U.S. market
E15 Automaker Approval Status GM approved the use of E15 in MY2012 vehicles Ford followed in MY2013 Several foreign OEMs joined in MY2014 Fiat-Chrysler was the last of the Detroit Three to approve E15 in MY2016 Models approved for E15 comprise 70% of 2016 sales When FFVs made by Nissan, Mitsubishi, and others are added, roughly 75% of new vehicles are approved for E15 Source: RFA analysis of owners manuals and warranty statements. Market share data from Motor Intelligence
More than 20% of current auto fleet is explicitly approved for E15, including 70-75% of MY2016 sales Million Vehicles Light-duty cars and trucks (E10 compatible) 240 Percent of Total Fleet Approved by EPA to use E15 (MY2001 or later) 209 87% Explicitly warranted for E15 by OEM (including FFVs) 52 22% Flex-fuel Vehicles, or FFVs (E0-E85 compatible) 22 9% Not approved for E15 by EPA 35 15% These automakers explicitly approve E15 in new vehicles
Vehicle Validation Timing Estimate Vehicle validation for sale is a complex, expensive process. But adding E15 to the process should not be onerous. Materials Compatibility- All materials used in production (metals, elastomers, paint, etc.) starts 4-10 years before launch (BL). Engine durability testing- dyno and vehicle- 2-4 years BL Engine/vehicle calibration with the new fuel- 1-3 years BL- Evaporative emissions, tailpipe emissions and fuel economy testing- 1-3 years BL Customer satisfaction testing- 1 year BL 7
More than one out of five light-duty vehicles are OEM-approved for E15 22% of the current fleet is explicitly approved by the manufacturer to consume E15 If just the current OEMs approving E15 continue to do so, 50% of the fleet will be explicitly approved for E15 by 2023 If all OEMs approve E15 beginning in MY2018, 50% of the fleet will be explicitly approved for E15 by 2021 Share of Light-Duty Auto Fleet OEM-Approved for E15 100% of New Vehicles E15 Approved by OEM, MY2018-MY2023 70% 70% of New Vehicles E15 Approved by OEM, MY2018-MY2023 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Actual Projected
Further OEM Approvals Approximately 70% of the automobiles sold in the US are validated with E15. It is likely that few, if any of these vehicles had to be modified for E15 usage. Automakers are very conservative in many respects, and will not provide a formal approval without a formal validation program. A champion is required, one person within a company to speak out about what needs to be done. RFA continues to work with remaining automakers to discuss E15 approval. 9
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