Emissions Overview, stage 6 addressing real driving

Emissions Overview, stage 6 addressing real driving Future Powertrain Conference 25/26th February 2015 Jon Caine Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 0

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 1

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 2

The view from 1925 Historical vision for affordable transport solutions through application of technology at scale Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 3

Emissions History - Gasoline Gasoline Emissions Evolution Emissions (HC+CO/10+NOx) (g/km) 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 PCV Improved Combustion EGR Electronic Ign. Evap Canister Oxi Cat EEC TWC CFI OBD Oxi Cat U.S. Europe SFI ORVR 1965 1975 1985 OBD II 1995 2005 DI 2015 CFI Model Year EEC TWC OBD DI Eu6 Source : Vehicle EuEnvironmental Gasoline Engineering is converging with US legislation allowing a modular approach Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 4

EU Emission Limits (g/km) 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 Eu1 IDI Pass Car., no EGR + low level oxi cat DI Truck., EGR + oxi cat Eu2 Emissions History Eu Diesel IDI: added EGR Improved combustion, Basic Electronic FIE controls DI added Basic Electronic FIE controls Eu3 CO/50 (HC+NOx)/10 PM NOx all DI: added high activity doc, full electronic controls of FIE / EGR; some charge air coolers; some EGR coolers St4 added increased FIE pressures; some Common Rail; improved combustion; some adpf Eu4 St5 added upgraded FIE, combustion, EGR systems, EGR bypass; CDPF Eu5 St 6 added NOx aftertreatment Eu6 Eu6c 0.00 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Source : Vehicle Environmental Engineering Stage 6 55% NO x reduction is the most significant challenge for Diesel, given the continued pressure for CO 2 Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 5

Increasingly complex business environment Dominated by UN ECE-based technical standards but with growing differences in interpretations and certification processes Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 6

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 7

Europe Emissions Overview EU 6 Cycle (NEDC Since 2000) Particle Number Diesel NOx Gas NOx After Treatment Gas E-OBD Diesel E-OBD EU 5 2009 Diesel 6x10 11 DPF EU 5+ 2011 EU 6 2014 + RDE Monitor Gas 6x10 12-25% - 55% - 25% No GPF Diesel NOx AT WLTP Stage 6 Introduces PM Limit on Gasoline and Further NO x reduction on Diesel Diesel NO x reduction leads to increasing adoption of NO x aftertreatment Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 8

Eu6 Diesel Benchmarking: 3 main NOx reduction paths Diesel NOx EU 6 2014-55% No de-nox DOC LP+HP EGR Mazda has highest capability with low C/R, VVA, Bi-Turbo & low PMAX Lean NOx Trap (LNT) Easy to package Purge FE & oil dilution penalty HP EGR NOx After treatment Routes DOC + Urea SCR Light-off issues on NEDC, trend to SDPF & LNT lite. UREA tank Package LP EGR HP EGR HP/LP EGR Competitor trends (source Suppliers, Consultants, Media) Light (B-Car, sub-b) Medium (C-Car) Heavy (CD-Car) & Small SUV, light CV Large SUV & Full size Commercial Wide range and mix of technologies expected at Eu6 across OEMs. PSA (100% urea SCR) and Mazda (expensive low c/r 2.2) remain outliers. Ford Eu6 assumption is LNT + HP EGR UREA SCR for CV Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 9

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 10

Background What's driving the change? Several governments and NGO s have produced data on air quality and vehicle tailpipe emissions Measured urban area NO 2 not in line with cycle emissions Stg 1 Stg 2 Stg 3 Stg 4 Stg 5 NO 2 limit value 2010 Sources: London Air Quality Network Monitoring 2012 Fig. 2: Air Quality measurements Germany busy urban area (Source:LANUV, 2009) No significant air quality reduction since stage 3 introduction Complex and multiple reasons, road traffic have their part to play Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 11

Drivers for Eu6c RDE Legislation Sources: National Trend Table for the German Atmospheric Reporting 2009 Sources: London Air, Smartphone App Air Quality increasingly on Political & Media agenda Urban air pollution is a particular concern Increasingly local measures are being used to address urban air quality More Low Emissions Zones evident Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 12

Europe Emissions Overview EU 6c Cycle (NEDC Since 2000) EU 5 2009 EU 5+ 2011 EU 6 2014 + RDE Monitor EU 6c 2017 RDE in-use WLTP Particle Number Diesel NOx Gas NOx After Treatment Gas E-OBD Diesel 6x10 11 DPF Gas 6x10 12-25% - 55% - 25% Diesel NOx AT Gas 6x10 11-7 NO 2 90mg/km NOx Real Driving Emissions: On-road monitoring with Portable Emissions Measurement. NEDC NOx reduction over a larger operating range than NEDC. 0 to 30 C ambient up to 145kph? Up to 700m altitude? risk of sub zero & high speed? CF to be determined Diesel E-OBD 12.5mg/km PM Stage 6c Tightens PM Limit on Gasoline Introduces Real Driving Emissions Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 13

Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 14 Portable Emissions Measurement System

Typical Drive (to RDE rules) Vehicle Speed [kph] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Urban Average Speed(23 kph) 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Time [sec] Vehicle Speed [kph] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Rural Average Speed(61 kph) 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Time [sec] Vehicle Speed [kph] 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Motorway Average Speed(96 kph) 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Time [sec] All sections meet EU commission proposal on 33 ± 5% by distance driven Total driving duration is between 90 and 120 min The Drive profile has approximately 1/3 Urban, 1/3 Rural, 1/3 Motorway Duration 90-120minutes Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 15

Background What's driving the change? RDE emissions extends test window Normal and extended range Limit based on legal standard multiple Engine Load RDE Extended Range NEDC Engine Speed Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 16

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 17

Diesel Challenges for stage 6c Diesels have the challenge of the RDE in an environment of reducing fuel economy The RDE requirement drives high load NOx control The reduced fuel consumption drives light off issues. Light off will define aftertreatment strategies Total 300 Total 270 10% PT FE Exhaust 100 Exhaust 85 Coolant 100 Coolant 85 10% Fuel Economy improvement 15% less to coolant and exhaust Flywheel 100 Same Vehicle Flywheel 100 Same Vehicle same energy to Flywheel Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 18

The temperature challenge for Diesel 2 Competing technologies Lean Nox Traps Urea SCR Lean NOx Trap (LNT) Best for low temperature / light vehicles on NEDC. Combined with LP EGR to improve fuel economy. Trend to combine pscr function onto cdpf. LNT cdpf pscr NOx sensor DOC LNT operating range Urea SCR operating range Urea SCR NEDC light-off is difficult for light vehicles even with close-coupled sdpf. Best RDE conversion efficiency when at temperature. Additional UREA tank weight / package Dosing control module mixer sdpf NOx sensor LNT systems can be optimised to meet RDE boundary conditions provided sufficient feedgas NO x reduction can be achieved. LNT particularly good at NO 2 reduction Urea SCR may be expanded from CV to heavier passenger car applications. Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 19

SCR vs NOx Trap System Performance LNT Avoids package and weight issues of SCR Provides good NO x performance at good fuel economy Starts working quickly at lower exhaust temperatures Light Applications have lower NO x challenge with the need for good city and low speed conversion favours LNT Heavy Applications with higher speeds and loads favour SCR Ford Heavy Commercial Vehicles plan SCR solutions System Performance (& Cost) Urea SCR has significant fixed costs but low variable costs compared to NO x Traps NO x Trap Advantage Stage 6c? Break Point Affected By: Drive Cycle Temperature PGM Prices Dosing System Urea SCR Advantage NOx Trap (High PGM) Urea SCR (No PGM) Total NO x Conversion Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 20

Agenda Emissions History Stage 6 Emissions Stage 6c Emissions Background What's driving the change? The Fuel Economy Environment Competing Emissions Technologies What do we really want Vehicle Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 21

A Balanced Solution Industry Need Regulatory Requirement Customer Want All we need is The right system technology, at the right time, for the right cost, for scale roll-out, to meet customer pull, and regulatory requirement Technology deployment prioritised with decreasing value Every achievement reinforces the possibility of more Every CO2 action lowers the value of future improvements The automotive technology pipeline is challenged as never before. Achieving Balance requires Evolutionary AND Revolutionary solutions Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 22

A Final Thought 1,264Kg 13,995 11.07/Kg 150g 2.50 16.67/Kg 215g 2.90 13.48/Kg The Challenge, Excellent Emissions Control and Excellent Value Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 23

Thank You Future Powertrain Conference 25 th February 2015 24