Strategic Shifts in the Global Oil Equation Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman FACTS Global Energy (FGE) The 31 st JCCP International Symposium Tokyo, Japan January 30-31, 2013 The dissemination, distribution, or copying by any means whatsoever without FACTS Global Energy s prior written consent is strictly prohibited. 1
Overview Short Term: Price Pressures, Sanctions on Iranian Oil, and OPEC Spare Capacity Long Term: Market Tightness to Return and OPEC Holds the Cards for Additional Supply A Real Game Changer: Liquids Production from Shale Gas Projects Refining Sector: Near-Term Outlook OK, but 2015-17 will be Difficult. Will Enough Capacity be Closed? East of Suez Products Trade: More Gasoline and Diesel Must Leave the Region Gasoline: A Fuel of the Past? Bunker Sector: Specification Changes to Impact Bunker Demand 2
Short-Term Oil Market: Price Pressures, Sanctions on Iranian Oil, and OPEC Spare Capacity 3
Oil Demand in 2011 and 2012 - Slowdown from 2010 OECD demand boosted in Q2 2012 by high Japan oil input for power generation, due to shortfall in nuclear Y-o-y decrease in OECD demand in Q3 2012 should slow down temporarily in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 (mild winter last year) Non-OECD demand growth projected to pick up in second half of 2013, mainly due to acceleration in China 4.0 3.0 Change y-on-y, mmb/d 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-0.8 mmb/d +2.7 mmb/d +0.9 mmb/d +0.9 mmb/d +0.8 mmb/d OECD Non-OECD Net Global Growth 4
Iran Oil Exports Recovering Slightly Now Iran s estimated oil exports down to only 900 kb/d in July/August 2012 due to sanctions versus 2.2 mmb/d average in 2011. However, exports are expected to recover to around 1-1.3 mmb/d towards end 2012. Since the introduction of gas sanctions in October 2012, Iranian LPG exports have also been affected only one shipment in November, compared to seven in September and five in October. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Crude Oil Imports From Iran Current Outlook Through December (kb/d) Others EU Turkey S. Korea Japan India China 5
OPEC Spare Capacity Estimated at 4.5 mmb/d 14,000 OPEC Estimated Output and Capacity 12,000 10,000 2820 Estimated Spare Capacity Estimated November 12 Output 8,000 kb/d 6,000 190 150 4,000 2,000 295 125 65 900 0 *Note: Nigeria/Iraq output currently constrained by temporarily unavailable capacity; Iran's capacity at end-2012 potentially lower than projected due to impact of sanctions. 6
Long Term: Market Tightness to Return and OPEC Holds the Cards for Additional Supply 7
Long Term: Market Tightness Will Return Annual Base-Load Demand Growth: 2010-2020, kb/d Others: 48 kb/d Iran: 27 kb/d 481 280 136 97 China India Other Asia Middle East UAE: 48 kb/d Iraq: 45 kb/d Saudi Arabia: 112 kb/d Structural Demand Shift: OECD countries: Oil demand has peaked; Non-OECD countries: Strong annual base-load demand growth of around 1.0 mmb/d in 2010-2020. 8
1.5 1 Non-OPEC Production Plateau FSU M East L America N America Asia/Pacific Africa Europe Total mmb/d, change y-on-y 0.5 0-0.5-1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015* 2020* 2025* * Annual average of 5 years change But what will be the impact of shale gas related oil? 9
Expansion in Iraqi Export Infrastructure System Current Capacity (mmb/d) Planned Capacity (mmb/d) Iraqi-Turkish System (North) 0.7 + 0.9 Basra Port (South) 1.6 - Al Amaya Port (South) 0.5 - New Southern Export Project - + 3.2 Total 2.8 + 4.1 = 6.9 mmb/d by 2013-14 New Southern Export Project (3 undersea pipelines and 5 SPM facilities) plans to add a total of 3.2 mmb/d of export capacity by 2014. The first new SPM offshore Basra started up in March 2012, shortly followed by the second SPM in April, each with an eventual capacity of 900 kb/d. The third and fourth SPMs are scheduled for completion by 2020; with another spare SPM scheduled for completion by 2025. This has already allowed Iraq to boost exports from its Southern fields. Total crude exports reached a new monthly high of more than 2.6 mmb/d in October 2012. 10
Asia Net Crude Imports Rising Fast mmb/d 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Diversifying sources of crude supplies, but Asia has to import more from OPEC (especially Middle Eastern countries). Asian NOCs aggressively acquiring overseas upstream assets. China spent over US$60 billion in overseas direct oil and gas assets acquisitions between 2008 and end 2011. India, Korea, and Japan are also aggressive in their overseas acquisitions. Establishing a global trading network. -30 11
$200 $180 Long-Term Oil Price Outlook Dubai in US$/bbl $160 $140 CEILING $120 US$/bbl $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- FLOOR 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2011 are actuals. Forecasts in $2012 12
A Real Game Changer: Liquids Production from Shale Gas Projects 13
Real Game Changer: Liquids Production from Shale 2,000 1,800 Mississipian Lime Granite Wash Woodford Permian (Shale) Niobrara Eagle Ford Bakken 1,600 1,400 1,200 kb/d 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US crude production declined from about 6 mmb/d in 2003 to 5 mmb/d in early 2009, but light crude production associated with shale gas plays has reversed the trend. Current liquid production from shale is 700 kb/d with projections to nearly 2 mmb/d by 2015. 14
Non-Conventional Supply: Shale Gas Revolution Continues South America Proven Natural Gas Reserves (tcf) Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf) Venezuela 178.9 11 Colombia 4 19 2 Argentina 13.4 774 Brazil 12.9 226 Chile 3.5 10 64 Uruguay 21 Paraguay 62 Bolivia 26.5 48 Total 1,225 Total Recoverable Resource: 6,242 tcf Africa Proven Natural Gas Reserves (tcf) Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf) South Africa 485 Libya 54.7 290 Tunisia 2.3 18 Algeria 159 231 Morocco 0.1 11 Western Sahara 7 Mauritania 1 0 Total 1,042 15 4 8 9 Europe Asia (incl. AU) Proven Natural Gas Reserves (tcf) Proven Natural Gas Reserves (tcf) Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf) France 0.2 180 Germany 6.2 8 Netherlands 49 17 Norway 72 83 UK 9 20 Denmark 2.1 23 Sweden 41 Poland 5.8 187 Turkey 0.2 15 Ukraine 39 42 Lithuania 4 Others* 2.71 19 Total 639 * Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania. Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources (tcf) China 107 1,275 India 37.9 63 Pakistan 29.7 51 Australia 110 396** Total 1,785 North America USA 272.5 482 Canada 62 388 Mexico 12 681 Total 1,551 ** Recently downgraded by Geoscience Australia 12 Already banned! 11 1 6 5 7 3
Future of Shale Gas Liquids Outside the US The US resources are less than 8% of global resources. Very little non-us information on organic content. Speed of development outside the US will be slow due to lack of well servicing infrastructure. Shale gas requires pipeline infrastructure and a market. Shale gas exploration in China, Australia, Poland, and Argentina. What is the potential for shale gas liquids by 2020-25? 5 mmb/d? 10 mmb/d? Equivalent to Iraq or Saudi Arabia production? 16
Refining Sector: Near-Term Outlook OK, but 2015-17 will be Difficult. Will Enough Capacity be Closed? 17
Pressure on Refining Sector Falling Utilization Spare Capacity (mmb/d) 20 Spare Capacity Utilization after closures Utilization (no closures) 16 12 8 4 0 Global Refining Capacity and Utilization Rates 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% To bring utilization rates back up to 82-83% globally will require closure of around 7 mmb/d of capacity between 2009 and 2015. (2 mmb/d already confirmed) On the basis of current capacity + scheduled expansions, global utilization rates are set to fall to about 79% by 2015. This is not feasible on a sustainable basis! 18
Refinery Closures and Sales Since 2008 mmb/d 3.0 Who? mmb/d 4.5 Where? 2.5 Action since mid-2008 IOCs Atlantic Indep. 4.0 3.5 Action since 2008 For Sale Sold/Purchased 2.0 Japanese Refiners NOCs 3.0 Confirmed to close 1.5 Financials Other 2.5 Closed (August 2012) 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 Confirmed Closures Potential Closures Sold For Sale Purchased 0.0 Europe North America Asia LatAm Africa 19
East of Suez Refinery Build and Demand Growth Total AP Incremental Demand Total ME Incremental Demand kb/d 3,000 2,500 2,000 1st Wall of Refining Capacity Total AP Incremental CDU Capacity Unit: mmb/d 2008-2009 2010-2013 2014-2017 AP CDU Addition 3.05 3.19 3.97 ME CDU Addition 0.39 0.42 2.30 AP Demand Growth 0.53 3.62 2.95 ME Demand Growth 0.57 0.81 1.22 Gap 2.34 (0.82) 2.10 Total ME Incremental CDU Capacity 2 nd Wall of Refining Capacity 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20
kb/d 12,000 Who is Building East of Suez? Total Net Refining Capacity Additions in East of Suez, 2012-2020 11,120 kb/d 10,000 8,000 2,506 500 1,680 6,000 4,000 700 940 664 2,000 4,130 0 Chinese NOCs Chinese NOCs with Crudes Suppliers Chinese NOCs with IOCs and ME Suppliers Indian NOCs ME NOCs ME NOCs with IOCs Others (Net) NOCs will be involved in more than 90% of the refining capacity expansions in 2012-2020. Unlike the 2001-2010 period, independents will build much less refining capacity. IOCs are only involved in joint-venture projects with Chinese and Middle East NOCs. 21
Asia Pacific Refineries Becoming More Complex mmb/d 40 35 30 AP Cracking to CDU Ratio, 2008-2015 CDU Capacity Cracking-to-CDU Ratio (RHS) 44% 42% kb/d 1,200 1,000 AP Incremental Cracking Capacity, 2008-2015 Coker HDC 25 40% 800 FCC/RFCC 20 38% 600 15 10 5 36% 34% 32% 400 200-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Thermal cracking/vis-breaking is not included because almost no new builds/expansions Asia Pacific refineries are becoming more complex with higher conversion ratios, thus more fuel oil will be converted to gasoline and diesel, leading to higher surplus of transportation fuels and larger deficit of fuel oil. 22
Incremental East of Suez Refinery Supply: 2010-2015 Additional upgrading capacity increases East of Suez gasoline and diesel/gasoil supply significantly between 2010-2015. Has too much upgrading been planned? LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/Jet Diesel Fuel Oil 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 kb/d 23
Survival of the Fittest? Export Ratio (Total Export/Total Production) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Selective Refineries Complexities and Products Export Ratio, End 2010* SK Energy Ulsan Shell Tabangao Average Japanese refinery Shell Clyde FPCC Yunlin S-Oil Ulsan GS Caltex Yocheon Reliance Jamnagar 2nd Refinery 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Nelson Index * Note: the bubble size represents the size of the refinery 24
Refinery Closures and Sales in Asia Japan Taiwan China Singapore IOCs (Ex-Japan) kb/d Closures (2009-2011): 2,000-515 kb/d in Japan - 50 kb/d in China (local 1,800 refineries) 1,600 1,400 Confirmed Closures: - 279 kb/d in Japan - 200 kb/d in Australia (Shell and Caltex) Potential Closures: - 500 kb/d in Japan - 112 kb/d in PH (Shell) - 205 kb/d in Taiwan - 700 kb/d in China (local refineries) Sold: - PetroChina bought the 107 kb/d Osaka refinery from JX Group and 50% stake of the Singapore SRC refinery - San Miguel bought Esso Malaysia's 85 kb/d refinery in Port Dickson 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Closures (2009-2011) Confirmed Closures Potential Closure Sold 25
East of Suez Products Trade: More Gasoline and Diesel Must Leave the Region 26
kb/d 1,400 1,200 India Fearless Push Forward India Petroleum Product Balance LPG (Net Import) / Net Export 1,000 800 600 400 200 0-200 Naphtha Gasoline Kero/Jet Diesel -400-600 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 Fuel Oil 27
China Deficit in Products Expected to Enlarge by 2020 kb/d 300 200 China Petroleum Product Balance LPG (Net Import) / Net Export 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600 Naphtha Gasoline Kero/Jet Diesel -700-800 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 Fuel Oil 28
East of Suez Net Products Exports kb/d 2010 2015 2020 LPG 38 50 81 Naphtha -439-451 -882 Gasoline 221 73 313 Kero/jet 1,018 737 764 Diesel 907 828 968 Fuel Oil -927-710 -838 Key Developments: Naphtha and fuel oil continue to be in large net deficit. Gasoline and middle distillates net exports set to increase due to rapid expansion of refining capacity. 29
Regional Products Trade Pointers for the Future North America: Structural decline in oil demand Latin American deficit will remain (for now) WTI price realignment: pressure on refining will re-emerge? Latin America: Robust demand growth Delays to refining capacity Gasoline + MD deficit continues Europe: Oil demand declining Squeeze on gasoline export markets continue Middle distillate imports remain high Pressure on refining remains Russia: Shifting emphasis towards clean product exports Regaining lost European MD market Eastwards export shift mainly to crude oil Middle East: High demand growth but slower refining expansion Main growth in products exports shifted beyond 2015? Africa: Refining expansion slower Products imports remain through mid term 30 Asia: Continued strong demand growth But refining capacity expansion keeping pace Naphtha and fuel oil deficits continue
Gasoline: A Fuel of the Past? 31
Bearish Outlook for Global Gasoline Demand Gasoline Demand by Region mmb/d 10 mmb/d 24 Global demand to peak around 2017 at slightly above 23 mmb/d 9 N. America 23 8 7 22 6 21 5 4 20 3 19 2 Asia Europe Middle East 18 1 0 17 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Global Total (Right Axis) Bearish outlook, but gasoline will still remain world s major road transport fuel. OECD demand set to decline with the largest drop in North America led by the US. Non-OECD Asia will drive gasoline demand growth. 32
US Vehicle Efficiency Affecting Demand Trend Now Gradual introduction of more efficient vehicles is starting to impact fleet average 12 Liter/100 km 11 10 New Registered Light Duty Vehicles 9 Fleet on the road 8 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 33 2006 2008 2010 2012
Asian Gasoline Demand Will Grow, But for How Long? Asian Gasoline Demand mmb/d mmb/d 8 4 China 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Japan + Korea India + Indonesia Rest of Asia Asia 2030 China s gasoline demand to grow by more than 500 kb/d in the next five years and keep rising to 2.8 mmb/d in 2020 due to massive fleet expansion. Passenger car fleet to grow to some 210 million in 2020 and 250 million in 2030. Demand growth in India and Indonesia is also expected to be strong. However, new technologies like engine downsizing, fuel efficient tires, hybrid vehicles, etc., will cap overall gasoline demand growth strongly in the next few decades. 34
Bunker Sector: Specification Changes to Impact Bunker Demand 35
How will Specification Changes Impact Bunker Demand? 6 5 Bunker Demand with IMO Global Cap in 2025 (base case) mmb/d mmb/d Distillate 4 3 0 5 3 Residual Residual 2 Additional 2.2 mmb/d distillate demand vs 2011 1 0 2010 Distillate 4 2 1 6 Bunker Demand with IMO Global Cap in 2020 Additional 1.3 mmb/d distillate demand vs base case 2020 2030 FO >4% FO 3.5% FO 1.5% Distillate >0.5% Distillate 0.1-0.5% Distillate <0.1% FO 1% Source: Outlook for Marine Bunkers and Fuel Oil to 2030 (FGE/Robin Meech) 36
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Appendix 38
WORLD OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND & STOCK CHANGE 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012 1Q13 2Q13 DEMAND USA Canada/Mexico Latin America W Europe FSU (apparent demand) Other Europe Japan Korea/Aus/NZ China (apparent demand, excl. strategic) Other Asia-Pacific Africa M East Total Demand 19.2 4.4 6.6 14.9 4.5 0.8 4.5 3.5 9.2 10.6 3.3 8.2 89.7 19.1 4.3 6.6 14.5 4.4 0.8 4.9 3.7 9.9 10.8 3.3 8.0 90.3 18.8 4.4 6.7 14.4 4.2 0.8 3.9 3.3 9.6 10.8 3.3 8.3 88.5 19.0 4.5 6.9 15.1 4.9 0.8 4.4 3.5 9.4 10.5 3.3 8.9 91.2 18.9 4.4 6.8 14.5 4.9 0.7 4.9 3.6 9.8 11.0 3.4 8.6 91.5 19.0 4.4 6.8 14.6 4.6 0.8 4.5 3.5 9.7 10.8 3.3 8.5 90.4 18.4 4.4 6.8 13.9 4.6 0.7 5.4 3.7 10.1 11.1 3.4 8.5 91.0 18.7 4.6 6.9 14.0 4.7 0.7 4.4 3.5 10.0 11.2 3.4 8.7 90.8 18.7 4.7 7.0 14.3 5.0 0.7 4.6 3.5 9.2 10.8 3.5 9.4 91.3 18.7 4.5 7.0 14.1 5.5 0.7 4.9 3.7 10.2 11.3 3.5 8.7 92.8 18.6 4.6 6.9 14.1 4.9 0.7 4.8 3.6 9.9 11.1 3.4 8.8 91.5 18.5 4.5 6.9 13.8 5.1 0.7 5.1 3.8 10.3 11.4 3.5 8.5 92.1 18.5 4.4 7.0 13.5 4.9 0.7 4.1 3.6 10.2 11.4 3.5 9.0 90.8 SUPPLY USA Canada Mexico North Sea Total FSU China Other Non-OPEC Total Non-OPEC Output (Crude/NGLs) Bio-liquids (ethanol/bio-gasoline, etc) GTL/CTL Processing Gain, balancing item etc Non-OPEC Supplies (incl. Indonesia) 7.6 3.4 3.0 3.8 13.4 4.1 12.6 47.9 1.9 0.2 4.2 54.2 7.6 3.5 3.0 3.7 13.5 4.2 12.7 48.2 2.0 0.3 4.0 54.5 7.8 3.4 3.0 3.4 13.5 4.1 12.4 47.6 2.0 0.3 4.0 53.9 7.8 3.6 2.9 3.2 13.4 4.0 12.6 47.5 2.0 0.3 4.0 53.8 8.3 3.7 2.9 3.4 13.4 4.0 12.6 48.3 2.1 0.3 4.0 54.7 7.9 3.6 2.9 3.4 13.5 4.1 12.6 47.9 2.0 0.3 4.0 54.2 8.5 3.7 2.9 3.4 13.6 4.1 12.0 48.2 2.0 0.3 3.9 54.4 8.6 3.7 2.9 3.2 13.5 4.1 11.9 47.9 2.0 0.3 3.9 54.1 8.7 3.7 2.9 2.8 13.4 4.1 12.2 47.8 2.0 0.3 3.9 54.0 8.9 3.8 2.9 3.1 13.6 4.2 12.3 48.8 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.2 8.7 3.7 2.9 3.1 13.5 4.1 12.1 48.2 2.0 0.3 3.9 54.4 8.9 3.8 2.9 3.3 13.6 4.2 12.2 48.9 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.3 Libya Iraq Other OPEC Total OPEC Crude (excl. Indonesia) NGLs/other Total OPEC (excl. Indonesia) 1.5 2.4 25.5 29.4 5.4 34.8 1.2 2.7 26.4 30.3 5.6 35.9 0.2 2.7 27.0 29.9 5.6 35.5 0.1 2.7 27.6 30.4 5.7 36.1 0.6 2.6 27.8 31.0 5.8 36.8 0.5 2.7 27.2 30.4 5.7 36.1 1.2 2.6 27.9 31.7 5.9 37.6 1.4 2.9 27.9 32.2 6.0 38.2 1.5 3.2 27.5 32.2 6.0 38.2 1.6 3.2 27.1 31.9 6.0 37.9 1.4 3.0 27.6 32.0 6.0 38.0 Total Supply 89.0 90.4 89.4 89.9 91.5 90.3 92.0 92.3 92.2 93.1 STOCK CHANGE OECD Company Strategic/government (incl. China) Non-OECD/transit/floating/unreported lmplied Stock Change 0.0 0.1-0.8-0.6-0.4 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.9-0.1-0.3-0.9-1.3-0.7 0.2 0.5 0.0-0.2 0.0 0.1-0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 3.2% 30.0 9.6 2.7% 30.2 9.6 2.59 58-0.1% 29.0 9.7 2.64 57 0.6% 31.7 9.0 2.63 57 1.0% 31.0 9.0 2.57 56 0.8% 30.5 9.3 0.8% 30.7 9.6 2.61 59 2.6% 30.7 9.4 2.64 58 0.1% 31.3 8.9 2.68 58 Reference items Demand change year-on-year % Call on OPEC crude (no stock change) FSU Net Oil Exports End-period OECD company stocks (bill bbls) End-period OECD stock cover (days) 39 3Q13 4Q13 2013 18.5 18.5 18.5 4.5 7.2 13.9 5.1 0.7 4.2 3.5 9.7 11.5 3.6 9.5 91.9 4.4 7.1 13.9 5.0 0.7 4.6 3.8 10.8 11.6 3.6 9.1 93.1 4.5 7.1 13.8 5.0 0.7 4.5 3.7 10.3 11.5 3.5 9.0 92.2 9.0 3.8 2.9 3.2 13.6 4.2 12.3 49.0 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.4 9.2 3.9 2.8 2.9 13.7 4.2 12.3 49.0 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.4 9.3 4.0 2.8 2.9 13.6 4.2 12.4 49.2 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.6 9.1 3.9 2.8 3.1 13.6 4.2 12.3 49.0 2.1 0.4 3.9 55.4 1.6 3.4 26.5 31.5 6.1 37.6 1.6 3.5 26.1 31.2 6.2 37.4 1.6 3.5 26.1 31.2 6.2 37.4 1.6 3.5 25.6 30.7 6.2 36.9 1.6 3.5 26.1 31.2 6.2 37.4 92.4 92.9 92.8 92.8 92.5 92.8-0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.9-0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.9-1.3 0.1 0.6-0.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.4% 31.6 8.5 2.66 58 1.2% 31.1 9.1 1.2% 30.7 8.9 2.65 60 0.0% 29.2 9.1 2.75 62 0.7% 30.3 9.0 2.80 62 0.3% 31.3 9.1 2.68 58 0.8% 30.4 9.0