Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, PDF Free Download

Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q4, 2010 Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

Presentation Overview Fourth Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Vehicle Registrations New and Used New Vehicle Market Share Purchase Loyalty Corporate and Brand Other Market Impacts Vehicle Financing Hybrid Market Share Impact of Gas Prices 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian s best in class data assets Integrated Information Assets Consumer Marketing Databases Credit Databases North American Vehicle Database Online Activity Databases Simmons National Consumer Study National Fraud Database 235 million consumers, 113 million households 1,500+ data attributes per record Attitudinal segments and touch-points 3,200 public and proprietary sources 110 million catalog buyers 148 million magazine subscribers Consumer 2 million credit inquiries daily 1.3 billion transaction updates/month 99.9% system availability 1.3 second response rate 220 million credit active consumers 50 million public records Business 22 million businesses 650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operation Includes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events 5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events 25 million Internet users interacting with one million Websites across 160+ industries Average of 60 billion emails sent on behalf of clients per year 50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categories Measures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile 700+ psychographic measures Easily extrapolated to any target file Approximately 600,000 known fraud records 186+ million cross-industry credit applications 215+ million consumer 200 +demographic and credit records 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Experian Automotive s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S. Quick Facts There are 239,811,984 light duty vehicles on the road Down over 470,000 units from last quarter (-0.20%) And up nearly 750,000 units vs. Q4 2009 Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.4% vs. 49.6%) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Current VIO U.S. Summary by Model Year 18,000,000 Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 79.2 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 79% Average Age = 9.9 years (up 3 months vs 2009 data) 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

Current VIO Vehicle Segment Pickup - Full Sized Mid Range Car - Standard Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower Van - Mini SUV - Lower Mid Range Pickup - Small Mid Range Car - Premium CUV - Entry Level Upscale - Near Luxury SUV - Large Upscale - Luxury SUV - Entry Level Sport Car - Touring Van - Full Sized CUV - Mid Range Traditional Car CUV - Premium Small Car - Budget Sport Car - Premium SUV - Upper Mid Range SUV - Premium Large Alt Power - Hybrid Car SUV - Pickup Sport Car - Upper Premium Upscale - Premium Alt Power - Hybrid Truck Other Upscale - Ultra Sport Car - Ultra Luxury Hybrid vehicles represent 0.77 percent of current VIO Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

Current VIO Percent Share Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer Hyundai Nissan Other GM Honda Domestic brands represent more than 61 percent of all vehicles in operation Toyota Chrysler Ford Source: Experian NVDB as of December 31, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

U.S. Automotive Market Overview Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q1 2009, 3x in 2010 New Vehicle Registrations Source: Experian Automotive 2009 2010 Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009, new vehicle registrations increased by more than 408,000 units (nearly 17 percent) Consistent with Q1 and Q2 increases 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10 10

U.S. Market New Vehicle Registrations New Vehicle Registrations 2009 2010 2009 2010 C4C 2009 2010 2009 2010 Q1, Q2 and Q4 consistent increases vs same quarters in 2009. Q3 2009 included cash for clunkers program Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

U.S. Market Used Vehicle Registrations Used Vehicle Registrations 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 2009 2010 Used vehicle registrations had largest increase compared to Q4 2009, as prior three quarters have been fairly consistent over prior year Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

New Vehicle Market Overview New Vehicle Registrations Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2009 Hyundai had highest unit and percentage gain versus Q4 2009, up nearly 80,000 units (56.6%) GM had second-highest unit gain, followed by Ford and Honda Nissan had the second highest percentage point gain (25.4%) followed by Honda (22.2%) and Chrysler (19.8%) Toyota was essentially unchanged, with 120 unit gain versus Q4 2009 Corporation Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Market Changers Ranked by Unit Change New Registrations Sonata up more than 28,000 units Equinox and Silverado up combined 34,000 units Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

M&M s (Market Movers) New Registrations 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Ranked by % change Grand Cherokee up 21,909 units Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Outlander up 2,634 units Elantra up 17,136 units Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q4 Performance Numerous small and mid-size coupes and luxury sedans entering market New entries represent more than 77,000 additional sales for 4 th quarter Source: Experian Automotive New Vehicle Registrations 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

New Vehicle Market Overview: Annual Summary 2,500,000 2,000,000 New Vehicle Registrations 2009 2010 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 - Source: Experian Automotive GM Ford Toyota Honda Chrysler Hyundai Nissan 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

Manufacturer Market Share Analysis CY2010 vs CY2009 Market Share Hyundai Nissan Chrysler Other 2009 GM Toyota Nissan Who is up? Ford 0.9% share Hyundai 0.7% share Nissan 0.4% share Chrysler 0.4% share Other GM Honda Ford Who is down? Toyota -1.6% share GM -0.3% share Honda -0.3% share Source: Experian Automotive Hyundai Chrysler Honda 2010 Toyota Ford 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Market Share Analysis: Model Level Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Hyundai, Nissan, Chrysler and VW Small / Mid- Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 22 22

Market Share Analysis: Segment Level Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Market Share Market Share Change Full Size Pickup SUV Entry Level CUV Entry Level SUV Lower Mid Range Small Car Budget SUV - Large Mid Range Car - Premium Small Car - Economy Sport Car - Touring Mid Range Car - Standard Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q4 2010 versus Q4 2009 Entry Level SUV and CUV, SUV Lower Mid Range and Small Car Budget had strong increases Mid Range Car Standard, Sport Car Touring and Small Car Economy had large market share drops Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 23

Market Share Analysis: Import Brand Market Share Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share Market Share Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon Cash For Clunkers 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

Loyalty Methodology Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase. Provides complete view of repurchase activity Owned Vehicle: Honda Honda Honda Acura Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a Multiple vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new Levels vehicle purchase. Essentially tracking vehicle replacement 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

Loyalty Types Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella Corporate Loyalty Example: Owned Vehicle: Brand Loyalty Example: Brand Loyalty measures whether Multiple a new vehicle purchase matches a prior Levels new vehicle owned at the brand level. Owned Vehicle: Honda Honda Honda Acura 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

Market Overview - Loyalty Q4 2010 Corporate Loyalty Corporate Loyalty by Month 2010 GM passed Ford to gain top spot in Corporate Loyalty (first time in 3 quarters) Hyundai is higher than Honda for 3 rd straight qtr Chrysler continues to increase Source: Experian Automotive GM ends quarter with dramatic increase in loyalty Toyota and Ford in downward trend Honda and Hyundai end year in deadlock Chrysler on upward trend for year 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28 28

Brand Loyalty Top Gainers for Q3 2010 Q4 2010 vs Q4 2009 Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change Luxury brands represent five out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty Jeep, Dodge and Chrysler show strong increases Kia had highest point gain, more than seven percentage points Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 29

Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10 70% 60% 50% 40% Q4 2010 Brand Loyalty Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with nearly two out of three returning to Kia 30% 20% 10% Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty Chevrolet had three of top ten brand loyal vehicles 0% Kia Forte Ford Fusion Source: Experian Automotive Ford Edge Chevrolet Impala Ford Five Hundred Chevrolet Traverse Model Owned Ford Flex Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Ford Focus 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30 30

2007 Who took from Whom? Net Units Ford (471,254) GM (330,313) Chrysler (225,213) Honda 325,555 Toyota 701,225 GM 64,000 Ford Honda Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32 Net Owner Migration

Q4 2010: Who s taking from Whom? Net Units GM (195,063) Chrysler (184,771) Ford 60,368 Toyota 147,430 Honda 172,036 GM 72,124 Ford Honda Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 Net Owner Migration

Q4 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai GM Nissan 5,930 Ford Hyundai Honda 13,968 Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34 Net Owner Migration

Q4 2010: Net Migration to Nissan GM Hyundai Ford 5,930 Nissan Honda 6,597 Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35 Net Owner Migration

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Lender Type 35% Dealer Loyalty 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Captive Bank Finance Credit Union Lender Type BuyHere / PayHere 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 40

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Brand Loyalty Captive Non-Captive 0% Ford Toyota Honda Hyundai Chevrolet Nissan Dodge Brand Owned 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 41

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Captive vs. Non-Captive 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Dealer Loyalty Captive Non-Captive Brand Owned 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Vantage Score 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Deep Sub Prime Brand Loyalty Sub Prime Non Prime VantageScore Prime Super Prime ( < 600 ) ( 601 640 ) ( 641 700 ) ( 701 800 ) ( 801 + ) Finance Source: Captive Mercedes-Benz Financial Toyota Financial Services American Honda Finance Ford Motor Credit BMW Bank of North America Nissan Infiniti Financial Services 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 43

Impact of Vehicle Financing: Term 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Brand Loyalty 12 24 36 48 60 72 > 72 Term In Months Ford Loan Ford Lease Honda Loan Honda Lease 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 45

Gas Prices vs. Segment Share: Economy Cars Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy Market Share Gas Price per Gallon 2008 2009 2010 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 49

Gas Prices vs. Segment Share: Hybrid Vehicles Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy Market Share Gas Price per Gallon 2008 2009 2010 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 50

Conclusions Consistent quarter-over-quarter growth in new vehicles registrations, relatively stable for used vehicles. 2010 closed 11.3% higher than 2009 Ford, Hyundai, Nissan and Chrysler continue to gain market share. While Toyota, GM and Honda lost share. Corporate loyalty increased across the industry, with GM ending the year in the lead, followed closely by Ford. Subaru had the highest increase in loyalty, followed by Hyundai. Variations in finance type and lending source can have large impact on customer loyalty. The degree to which manufacturers and lenders capitalize on this varies. Success of select vehicle segments is very sensitive to gas prices. Domestic manufacturers are better positioned in terms of product to defend share during times of rising fuel costs. 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 51