Autonomous Vehicles: A look into the past - a look into the future Chester Wilmot, LTRC/LSU Presentation to the New Orleans Regional Planning Commission Freight Round Table 10/25/2017
THE PAST
1939 World Fair (NYC) GM Futurama Exhibit AVs by 1960
In 1980 s Europe introduced the Prometheus project (Program for European Traffic with Highest Efficiency and Unprecedented Safety) Headed by Daimler Benz 749m over 8 years Autonomous operation outside urban areas from Munich to Copenhagen (1,000 miles) in 1995.
DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) challenges in 2004 and 2005 Civilian groups invited to compete in 150-mile course in Mojave Desert in 2004 challenge. Urban Challenge in 2007 on 60 miles of urban and rural roads Established autonomous research groups at Stanford and Carnegie-Mellon that are still active
VisLab autonomous vehicle trip from Parma, Italy to Shanghai China in 2010 (8,000 miles)
Delphi equipped an Audi SQ5 which traveled from San Francisco to New York City in 2015. Autonomous operation on open road and during daytime only; manual operation in cities 3 lidars 1 vision camera
Google car Unveiled in 2010 Apple car announced in 2015
Growth in interest in AVs
THE PRESENT
Elevators Remember when elevators had an operator? They slowly disappeared until today it is unheard of. Why? Safety? Reliability? Cost?
Escalators and Moving Sidewalks Escalators have always operated autonomously High standards of safety apply to such a common carrier Moving sidewalks at airports Low speeds to maintain safety
Driverless trains Common at airports and theme parks today. Individual cars on a track Personal Rapid Transit system in Morgantown, West Virginia, first opened in the 1970 s on UWV campus and still operating today. 5 stations around campus 70 vehicles 3.6 miles of track Locale Transit type Number of lines Morgantown, West Virginia, United States Morgantown PRT vehicle near Beechurst Avenue Personal rapid transit/people mover 1 Overview Number of stations Daily ridership 5 16,000 [1] Operation
Other existing AVs Construction sites, container yards, open cast mining, warehouses (e.g. Amazon) In airplanes and shipping (automatic pilot) Characteristics of existing AV systems: Routine or simpler tasks Standard vehicle Limited site Controlled environment
THE PRESENT
Road Trains EU s Safe Trains for the Environment project. 5 trucks in platoon 20 spacing between vehicles Lead vehicle driven by professional driver; following vehicles autonomous. Tested on 120 mile trip in Spain. Trucks join platoon going in their direction by joining the rear end of the platoon; trucks leave by disengaging, moving into left lane, and remaining vehicles then move up to fill the gap.
Safety Improved safety is indisputably the main expected improvement from AVs. Sergey Brin, cofounder of Google, said It may sound cliché, but safety is issue one, two, and three. 5 million crashes per year in U.S.; 90% due to human error. Estimated annual cost of crashes in U.S. is $300 billion. But the public are not sure safety will be improved substantially record so far reinforces that.
Cost AV equipment costs approx. $100,000 Some researchers claim this will reduce to $10,000 in 10 year due to mass production but that assumes large market penetration in the next decade, which is not expected. Only 20% of U.S. auto buyers are prepared to spend more than $3,000 for AV technology.
THE FUTURE
Market penetration of AVs Uncertainty on the pace of penetration but most believe AVs will come into existence (this time!). Widespread use expected by the 2030 s or 2040 s Three biggest problems : Data fusion Public acceptance Liability
Data fusion Input from multiple sensors and processing it so that it can serve decision-making The Chris Urmson story. Autonomic computing and its relevance to Avs Managing the manager Can autonomically adapt, heal, optimize, protect. Triggers can be dynamic and reflect changing conditions, policies, or standards.
Public acceptance People like to drive and feel safer when they are the driver. Surveys in U.S., U.K., Australia, China, India, and Japan show the majority were concerned that AVs would not be as safe as driven vehicles. Only in China and India were the majority prepared to pay more for an AV U.S. consumers were only willing to pay about 5% more for an AV.
Liability OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) are insistent that a driver be present in an AV at all times. Americans spent $157m on automobile insurance in 2009. Insurance companies offer discount for policy holders who install their Event Data Recorders. Who owns the data, have access to it, and what will it be used for?
Total vehicle sharing Everyone shares vehicles like we share shopping carts today! No one owns, maintains, stores, or repairs cars anymore. Vehicles hailed electronically with < 1 min. wait Door-to-door service Current fleet reduced by 85%, Limited parking needs because individual vehicle use increases from 1 to 8 hours/day.
My own speculation! No road-based AVs. Large structures with footprint of up to 100 acres and about 10 platforms 100 ft. apart with residential and commercial structures on the periphery and park and recreational facilities in the middle. Transportation is by an elevator type vehicle that is capable of vertical and horizontal movement throughout the structure. Boarding and alighting sites every 100 ft throughout the structure.
When? 2060? Motivated by high price of land in large cities. No need for private vehicle with its storage, maintenance, insurance, and liability issues. Self-contained communities with all necessary services. Transportation system available for everyone independent of age or disability.
Question to you What is your opinion of AVs and the future of transportation? After more than a century of automobile domination, are we heading in a new direction? What is the future of Freight Transportation.