Sedona and Verde Valley Real Estate 213 in Review It is all about inventory! In 211 and 12, the big question was when home prices would hit bottom. With the median sales price of a single family home in the Sedona area rising 13% in 213 and with the inventory of homes available for sale lower than they have been in the last 7 years, especially in sales prices below $5,, we have to ask when are we going to see inventory rise and what impact this low inventory is going to have on prices for 214. The supply of residential inventory has fallen 57% in the Verde Valley since October of 27 and resulted in multiple offers and increasing prices. For the final piece of the housing market recovery we need to see inventory and sales in more in balance. 2 Verde Valley Residential Inventory 18 16 14 12 1 8 1282 1415 146 1482 1611 1668 1747 1558 1599 1682 1663 1668 1548 1322 1478 1512 143 1365 1272 1266 1239 13 18 1172 187 1169 957 943 931 892 814 854 855 86 743 6 4 2 May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Oct 7 Mar 8 July 8 Nov 8 Mar 9 July 9 May 1 Sept 1 Jan 11 July 11 Jan 12 July 12 Jan 13 July 13 Jan 14 With the reduction in inventory over the last 6 years we finally saw prices bottom out in 211 and 212 and have had a strong recovery in 213. The median sales price in the Sedona area of a single family home rose 13%. 1 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
Other areas of the Verde Valley have seen strong increases in median sales prices since the bottom of the market with prices rising 18% in the Camp Verde area, 28% in the Cottonwood and Cornville area and 35% in the Lake Montezuma and Rimrock area. Good news for homeowners in all areas of the Verde Valley. While the numbers of transactions has remained steady over the last four years, in addition to the decrease in inventory another driving force in increased prices has been the dramatic decrease in the number of foreclosures impacting the market and this trend is going to continue. 45 4 Annual Notice of Trustees Sales in Yavapai County (Foreclosures) 4223 373 35 3 286 2721 25 2374 2 15 1 5 933 9 847 572 575 1333 1167 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 The number of homeowners that are behind on the mortgages continues to decline as evidenced by the continued decrease in the Notice of Trustees sales recorded. Since their peak in 29 the number of Notice of Trustees filings in Yavapai County has decreased 72% to 1167 filings in 213, below the number in 27 and approaching numbers for a more normal real estate market. This bodes well for a continued reduction in the number of foreclosed properties impacting the market in 214 2 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
So what about inventory? Where is it going to come from? In addition to the normal reasons for folks wanting to sell their homes we are going to see some of the impact of pent up sellers. Sellers that have been on the sidelines waiting for prices to rise back closer to the highs at the peak of the market, but also prices to rise enough to get them above their mortgages. In addition we are going to see more lots being purchased for new homes and more existing lot owners building a home. This should help stabilize the lot market. I think 214 will also see the start of the recovery in new home sales. As the inventory of existing homes has been reduced, sales of new homes have been at historic lows bottoming out in 29. Now that housing inventory has been whittled down, builders are becoming more confident about breaking ground. At the same time, household formation should improve along with the steady gains in the job market, adding to the number of home buyers in an already tight market. Just the Facts: Sedona area: The median price of a single family home rose 13% in 213 over 212. The number of transactions remains steady at around 4 single family sales per year as it has been for the last four years. Vacant land transactions for 213 came in at 132 with a median sales price of $146,5 up 21%, the first rise in vacant land prices since 26. Houston, we have found the bottom of land prices! The luxury market, over $1,,, for 213 had it s best year since 27 with 31 sales. We are seeing a solid recovery in this segment of the market, but there is still a multi-year amount of inventory, especially in prices above $1,5,. Cumulative days on the market saw a significant drop to 118 days, a 25% decrease over the previous 12 month period. Well priced homes coming on the market are selling and closing quickly. The median sales price for Condos and Townhomes in the Sedona area dropped slightly to $211,5 for the last 12 month period which is 4% below the $221, price for 212. The number of transactions for the last 12 month period is 96, down from 111 in 212. Camp Verde: The median sales price for single family homes in the Camp Verde area for 213 was $142,25 up 4% from 212, and up 18% from the low in 211. The number of transactions is down to 14 from the 117 in 212. 3 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
So what about inventory? Where is it going to come from? In addition to the normal reasons for folks wanting to sell their homes we are going to see some of the impact of pent up sellers. Sellers that have been on the sidelines waiting for prices to rise back closer to the highs at the peak of the market, but also prices to rise enough to get them above their mortgages. In addition we are going to see more lots being purchased for new homes and more existing lot owners building a home. This should help stabilize the lot market. I think 214 will also see the start of the recovery in new home sales. As the inventory of existing homes has been reduced, sales of new homes have been at historic lows bottoming out in 29. Now that housing inventory has been whittled down, builders are becoming more confident about breaking ground. At the same time, household formation should improve along with the steady gains in the job market, adding to the number of home buyers in an already tight market. Just the Facts: Sedona area: The median price of a single family home rose 13% in 213 over 212. The number of transactions remains steady at around 4 single family sales per year as it has been for the last four years. Vacant land transactions for 213 came in at 132 with a median sales price of $146,5 up 21%, the first rise in vacant land prices since 26. Houston, we have found the bottom of land prices! The luxury market, over $1,,, for 213 had it s best year since 27 with 31 sales. We are seeing a solid recovery in this segment of the market, but there is still a multi-year amount of inventory, especially in prices above $1,5,. Cumulative days on the market saw a significant drop to 118 days, a 25% decrease over the previous 12 month period. Well priced homes coming on the market are selling and closing quickly. The median sales price for Condos and Townhomes in the Sedona area dropped slightly to $211,5 for the last 12 month period which is 4% below the $221, price for 212. The number of transactions for the last 12 month period is 96, down from 111 in 212. Camp Verde: The median sales price for single family homes in the Camp Verde area for 213 was $142,25 up 4% from 212, and up 18% from the low in 211. The number of transactions is down to 14 from the 117 in 212. 4 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
Lake Montezuma and Rimrock: The median sales price for single family homes in the Rimrock and Lake Montezuma area for 213 was $11,75 up 11% from 212 and 35% from 211. The number of sales was down 3 to 8 sales in 213. Overall a solid recovery for this area. Cottonwood and Cornville: The median sales price for single family homes in The Cottonwood and Camp Verde area for 213 was $16, up 13% over 212 and up 28% since 211. The number of transactions was down about 3% to 487 sales. Overall, solid gains for the Cottonwood and Cornville areas of the Verde Valley. The Bottom Line: Prices will increase in 214 but not at the pace of 213, although lower priced segments of all the markets in the Verde Valley will remain strong due to lack of inventory. Interest rates will rise slightly but getting a loan will be a little pricier and dicier due to the new Dodd/Frank rules coming into effect regarding debt to income ratios and qualified loans. Job growth will remain steady, adding to the number of buyers coming into the market along with increased household formation. And this will be the year that home builders really get back into the market and add stiffer competition to existing home sellers. So the good news is rising home prices should motivate would-be sellers to put their homes on the market and also stimulate new construction, both of which will expand inventory, boost sales, and give house hunters more to choose from. Overall it will be a more back to normal year for the real estate market in 214. 5 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
YTD 213 Verde Valley Residential Sold vs Active.xls Price Range Rimrock Sedona Cottonwood Camp Verde Lake Montezuma Verde Valley Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active - 199K 1 25 435 97 123 45 14 48 762 215 2K - 299K 16 49 14 6 2 17 7 1 237 136 3K - 399K 132 59 36 37 4 11 2 4 174 111 4K - 499K 77 54 7 13 3 4 1 87 72 5K - 749K 79 62 4 9 4 6 1 88 77 75K - 999K 26 52 3 5 1 29 58 1 Mil - 1.49 Mil 22 32 2 2 22 36 1.5 Mil - 1.99 Mil 7 21 1 1 7 23 2 Mil - 2.49 Mil 1 5 1 1 6 2.5 Mil & Over 1 8 1 1 2 9 Sold vs Active - 499,999 415 187 582 27 15 77 113 63 126 534 Sold vs. Active 5K - 999,999 15 114 7 14 4 7 1 117 135 Sold vs Active 1 Mil & Over 31 66 1 5 3 32 74 Totals 551 367 59 226 154 87 114 63 149 743 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse Estate Data Source: SVVAR MLS as of January 3, 214 6 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
YTD 213 Verde Valley Vacant Land Sold vs Active.xls Price Range Rimrock Lake Sedona Cottonwood Camp Verde Montezuma Verde Valley Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active - 99K 37 29 68 185 11 77 33 113 149 44 1K - 199K 47 123 4 87 5 2 1 8 57 238 2K - 299K 31 6 2 18 4 1 33 83 3K - 399K 9 25 1 7 1 3 2 11 37 4K - 499K 2 16 2 1 3 3 21 5K - 749K 3 11 6 3 17 75K - 999K 1 12 6 1 18 1 Mil - 1.49 Mil 4 2 2 8 1.5 Mil - 1.99 Mil 2 6 4 1 2 11 2 Mil - 2.49 Mil 2.5 Mil & Over 1 7 8 Sold vs Active - 499,999 126 253 75 299 18 17 34 124 253 783 Sold vs. Active 5K - 999,999 4 23 12 4 35 Sold vs Active 1 Mil & Over 2 11 13 3 2 27 Totals 132 287 75 324 18 11 34 124 259 845 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse Estate Data Source: SVVAR MLS as of January 3, 214 7 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$7, Median Price Single Family Sedona Area 24-213 $6, $59, $557,5 $528,173 $5, $48, $4, $42, $398, $358, $35, $349,95 $395, $3, $2, $1, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 8 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
7 Single Family Transactions Sedona Area 24-213 6 591 582 5 4 386 413 387 46 49 344 3 254 229 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 9 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
5 Vacant Land Transactions Sedona Area 24-213 45 439 4 35 337 3 25 2 15 121 12 132 1 73 6 96 93 95 5 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 1 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$6, Median Sales Price Vacant Land Sedona Area 24-213 $52, $5, $4, $375, $357, $3, $3, $225, $2, $136,347 $135, $125, $12,625 $146,5 $1, $- 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 11 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
2 Verde Valley Residential Inventory 18 16 14 12 1282 146 1482 1415 1668 1611 1747 1558 1599 1682 1663 1668 1548 1478 1512 143 1365 1322 13 12721266 1239 18 1172 187 1169 1 957 943 931 892 8 814 854 855 86 743 6 4 2 12 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
8 7 6 5 4 Sedona Residential Inventory 715 725 74 7 75 679 676 681 666 625 64 624 597 67 592 589 595 584 573 566 511 518 53 525 51 486 453 452 447 42 41 414 392 362 367 3 2 1 13 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
16 14 1399 1394 134313411354 1317 1295 Verde Valley Vacant Land Inventory 1465 13711382 1393 133813471354 1327 12 1 8 822 1147 199 1111 1154 1137 189 193 153 976 932 893 144 111118 958 979 979 933 934 94 845 6 4 2 May 6 Sept 6 Nov 6 Jan 7 April 7 June 7 Aug 7 Sept 7 Nov 7 Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 Jan 9 April 9 June 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 May 1 June 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Jan 11 April 11 July 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 April 12 July 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 April 13 July 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 14 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
6 Sedona Vacant Land Inventory 5 4 339 382 39 377 43 428 434 413 465 422 456 457 433 41 47 464 481 495 498 45 424 442 427 388 393 375 365 355 361 335 34 333 337 351 332 347 3 287 2 1 May 6 Sept 6 Nov 6 Jan 7 April 7 June 7 Aug 7 Sept 7 Nov 7 Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 9-Jan April 9 June 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 May 1 June 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Jan11 April 11 July 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 April 12 July 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 April 13 July 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 15 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
6 Single Family Transactions Above $1,, Sedona Area 24-213 55 52 5 42 4 3 33 31 25 24 2 19 17 17 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 16 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
2 Cumulative Median Days on Market for Single Family Sedona Area 24-213 18 16 16 157 182 167 162 158 14 12 112 118 1 9 8 7 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 17 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
45 Yavapai County Notice of Trustees Sales (Foreclosures Initiated) 4 4 4 35 3 25 2 15 353 29 23724 243 232 211 186 361 322 297 288 28 356 36 33 38 288 26 263 238 233 225 22 214 239 188 189 158 136 148 1 16 18 112 111 92 86 84 83 89 76 72 5 Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 Jan 9 Mar 9 May 9 July 9 Sept 9 Nov 9 Jan 1 Mar 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Nov 1 Jan 11 March 11 May 11 July 11 Sept 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 July 12 Sept 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 Aug 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 18 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
45 Annual Notice of Trustees Sales in Yavapai County (Foreclosures) 4223 4 373 35 3 286 2721 25 2374 2 15 1333 1167 1 933 9 847 5 572 575 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 19 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$3, Median Price Single Family Camp Verde Area 24-213 $285, $283,45 $25, $239,875 $213,5 $2, $166, $15, $147,5 $136, $137, $142,25 $12, $1, $5, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 2 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
14 Single Family Transactions Camp Verde Area 24-213 12 128 123 111 117 1 14 92 13 14 8 69 6 56 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 21 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
12 Single Family Transactions Lake Montezuma and Rimrock 24-213 113 14 1 8 78 78 83 8 7 6 59 5 4 35 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 22 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$25, Median Sales Price Single Family Lake Montezuma and Rimrock 24-213 $22, $217,95 $2, $185, $15, $15,4 $158,5 $125, $1, $97,95 $81,825 $99,975 $11,75 $5, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 23 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$3, Median Price Single Family Cottonwood - Cornville Areas 24-213 $25, $245,5 $255, $259,9 $21, $2, $189, $15, $171, $149, $142, $16, $125, $1, $5, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 24 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
8 Single Family Transactions Cottonwood - Cornville Areas 24-213 738 7 655 6 5 45 477 521 51 487 4 358 371 3 277 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 25 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
14 12 1 8 6 1156 118 1171 1119 1136 117 171 17 179 138 15 118 996 966 824 9 827 889 756 75 741 723 714 693 686 655 641 Verde Valley Single Family Foreclosed and Short Sale Listings 4 Verde Valley Single Family Listings 2 22 242 259 276 34 271 274 281 284 265 274 285 279 281 265 271 214 239 197 186 172 156 158 139 83 9 75 26 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
14 12 1 8 6 4 2 55 4 12 12 53 41 52 24 23 27 74 34 87 82 52 43 67 66 64 37 34 118 85 46 91 76 93 75 52 53 47 46 117 114 66 13 1 79 78 88 11 6 55 5 45 44 43 45 74 32 86 1817 13 1 85 99 78 87 9 79 79 81 19 45 44 38 39 39 37 36 34 29 29 32 29 29 27 25 23 23 23 22 16 17 15 11 84 12 12 116117 78 84 69 82 Verde Valley Single Family Foreclosed/Short Sales Solds Verde Valley Single Family Total Solds 27 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$45, Median Sales Price Condominiums and Townhomes Sedona Area $4, $395, $35, $35, $3, $277, $31, $295, $275, $25, $255, $2, $162,5 $158, $184,995 $21, $196,5 $221, $211,5 $15, $1, $5, $ 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 28 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
16 Number of Condominuims and Townhomes Sold Sedona Area 14 142 138 126 123 12 116 15 111 1 96 8 73 73 6 55 52 59 56 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 29 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$35, $3, Verde Santa Fe Median Sales Price 2-213 $327,5 $317,5 $295, $262,175 $25, $244,58 $27,756 $29, $216, $2, $187,776 $177, $172,5 $173,5 $19,95 $15, $1, $5, $ 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 3 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
1 Verde Santa Fe Number of Sales 2-213 9 89 88 93 8 7 72 68 64 6 5 55 51 44 56 4 36 3 31 2 1 8 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 31 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
1 93 9 89 88 8 72 7 68 64 6 55 59 56 5 51 44 47 Verde Santa Fe Number of Sales 2-213 Distressed Sales:Foreclosed and Short Sales 4 3 31 36 33 23 2 1 8 5 8 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 32 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$35, Median Sales Price Manufactured and Mobile Homes Sedona Area 24-212 $3, $286, $258, $25, $234,95 $2, $18, $15, $16, $162,75 $136,7 $138,889 $146, $1, $12,5 $5, $ 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 33 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
7 Manufacured and Home Homes Transactions Sedona Area 24-212 63 6 5 51 45 4 34 36 34 3 3 28 2 17 21 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 34 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$3, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Single Family Homes 24-213 $25, $244, $242,5 $23, $2, $2, $174,5 $15, $15, $135, $135, $145, $112, $1, $5, $- 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 35 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
6 Cottonwood Single Family Homes number of Transactions 24-213 545 514 5 4 357 45 378 33 317 3 274 279 216 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 36 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$2, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Condos and Townhomes 24-213 $185, $18, $174, $16, $14, $127,9 $134,5 $12, $12,4 $1, $12, $93, $15,25 $84,5 $8, $76,125 $6, $4, $2, $- 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 37 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
6 Cottonwood Condos and Townhomes numbers of Transactions 24-213 5 49 4 36 34 34 38 3 28 26 27 3 22 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 38 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$14, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Mobile and Manufactured Homes 24-213 $12, $122,75 $118, $117,9 $17,5 $1, $83, $8, $7, $6, $58,8 $6, $5, $48,9 $4, $2, $- 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 39 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
16 Cottonwood Mobile and Manufactured Homes numbers of Transactions 24-213 14 135 12 1 86 92 8 75 6 61 43 43 49 47 4 27 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 4 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
$18, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Vacant Land 24-213 $16, $155,9 $155,45 $14, $12, $1, $12, $99, $15, $8, $69, $6, $59, $4, $4, $4, $26,875 $2, $- 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 41 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse
2 Cottonwood Vacant Land Numbers of Transaction 24-213 18 175 16 14 126 12 18 1 8 6 5 4 28 31 34 2 15 8 19 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 42 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse