Second Jharkhand State Road Project (RRP IND 49125) ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Introduction 1. The project involves capacity augmentation and rehabilitation of four state highway sections in the state of Jharkhand. Jharkhand is one of four states in India with a poverty incidence above 40%; it has the highest rural poverty incidence in the country. This is despite having abundant natural resources and associated industrial cities. The goals of the project improvements are to encourage the socioeconomic development of the state. 2. The project road sections have two lanes and deteriorated pavement. The traffic on these roads indicates the requirement for a minimum two-lane standard with paved shoulders. Slow-moving vehicles are not segregated and pedestrian walkways are not available in urban sections, thus adding to the congestion. The project road sections have a bituminous surface, but poor pavement structure results in pavement failure within a short time of pavement resurfacing and road roughness above desirable levels thus requiring pavement reconstruction. The road sections selected need both capacity augmentation and pavement reconstruction or rehabilitation to provide an acceptable level of service. 3. The economic evaluation of the project components used the Highway Development Model 4 (HDM-4). The model requires data on traffic, road geometry, condition, pavement structure, and material characteristics of the existing road, maintenance and road improvement costs, and vehicle operating cost. The project road improvement comprises improving an existing road, which is already travelled by motorized traffic but has capacity constraints and deteriorated road condition. The project will augment traffic capacity, improve the geometry, and improve road user facilities and road safety. The improvement of road corridors will result in savings to road users and society as a whole in the form of reduced vehicle operating and time costs for passengers and freight traffic. In addition, road maintenance costs will be reduced, as well as vehicle emissions and possibly road accidents. The costs to the road agency and road users in the with- and without-project scenarios were estimated and used to derive the net costs and benefits with the project and to calculate the economic viability of the project road sections. 4. The economic analysis uses the domestic price numeraire. The Indian rupee is used as the currency unit and the project cost is as of 2015. Customs duty and value-added tax are included in the project cost estimate, but are excluded in the economic analysis. Physical contingencies are included as they are part of the value of resources that will be used in the construction, but price contingencies are excluded as they do not reflect the real changes in the volume of resources consumed. A shadow exchange rate factor of 1.037, based on India s international trade data for 2013 2014, is applied to traded goods for the conversion to domestic prices. 1 A shadow wage rate factor of 0.74 is applied to the unskilled labor cost. An analysis period of 20 years of operation after construction completion is used. In the terminal year of the project, residual values of assets are considered as per their economic life by applying the straight-line depreciation method. B. Project Road Details and Traffic Forecast 5. The four roads selected for upgrading under the project pass through rural areas with fertile agricultural land along the entire corridor. The catchment area of the project roads has coal and other mineral potential, and major industrial areas. Improved connectivity can improve economic development of the project area. The project road sections have a poor to fair riding surface with an international roughness index of 4.0 6.0, requiring rehabilitation and capacity expansion. The improvement will result in reducing the index to 2.0 2.5; it is expected to be maintained below 3.5 with periodic overlays. Average journey speed on 1 Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry. http://www.commerce.nic.in.
2 existing project road sections is approximately 38 54 kilometers (km)/hour, which is expected to be improved to approximately 65 km/hour with the project. These improvements will reduce vehicle-operating cost by 16% 22% and travel time by about 40%. The base year traffic assessment and forecast are based on traffic studies. The analysis identifies single homogenous traffic sections along three roads and two homogenous traffic sections along one road. The base year traffic obtained from the traffic surveys constitutes normal traffic. The study of the road network does not indicate any potential diverted traffic to these roads. The project road corridors are existing road sections, which provide connectivity at present but are characterized by capacity constraints and poor conditions. The upgrading will improve service and reduce road user cost. No additional traffic generation is considered in the analysis, although some additional traffic could be generated. The project road details are given in Table 1. Table 1: Base Year Traffic on Project Road Sections Percent Share of Road Name and Homogenous Road Length AADT Passenger Goods Traffic Sections (km) (units) Vehicles Vehicles Dumka Hansdiha Road 44.2 3,691 74.8 25.2 Giridih Jamua Sarwan Road 45.2 Section 1 23.6 6,083 78.5 21.5 Section 2 21.6 6,551 91.0 9.0 Gobindpur Tundi Giridih Road 43.5 6,396 76.8 23.2 Khunti Tamar Road 43.7 3,840 88.6 11.4 AADT = annual average daily traffic, km = kilometer. 6. Passenger traffic represents more than 75% of traffic on the project road sections; of this, two-wheelers comprise 50% 60%. About 500 1,500 vehicles per day transport goods. Traffic growth on a road facility is generally estimated on the basis of historic trends and growth forecasts of the economy and the population. In the absence of historic traffic data on the project road corridors, the vehicle registration growth in the project influence area and economic parameters such as net state domestic product, per capita income, and population were analysed to estimate vehicle growth elasticity in relation to these parameters and was adopted for the traffic projection. The traffic growth rates adopted for the traffic projection are given in Table 2. Table 2: Adopted Traffic Growth Rates (%) Vehicle Type 2014 2019 2019 2024 2024 2029 Beyond 2029 Car, van, jeep, two-wheeler 8.0 6.9 5.1 4.5 Three-wheeler 5.6 4.7 3.3 2.5 Bus 4.9 4.1 3.3 2.5 Goods vehicles 7.2 6.6 5.0 4.1 C. Economic Analysis 7. Road characteristics. The inventory and condition survey, and the material and pavement investigations data and analysis provide the required HDM input data for the existing road characteristics. The data from detailed project reports is used in the analysis. 8. Vehicle characteristics and costs. The HDM model takes as input the vehicle technical and operating characteristics, vehicle price, tire price, fuel price, maintenance, and
3 vehicle operation staff cost. The technical and vehicle operating characteristics are adopted from similar studies. The vehicle and tire price, excluding taxes and labor cost for vehicle maintenance and operation, collected from Jharkhand and given in the final report of the project preparatory studies are adopted for the study. 2 The crude oil prices are currently hovering around $50/barrel from the high of over $100 in the last 5 years. Economic fuel prices have also been derived, excluding taxes and duties, assuming an average crude oil price of $75/barrel, or approximately Rs4,650/barrel over the analysis period. 9. Value of time for passengers and freight. For passenger-carrying vehicles, values of passenger working and nonworking time are based on per capita income in the state. The per capita income per employed person is worked out and average hourly income is derived assuming 2,080 hours of work per year. The value of time in private passenger vehicles is equated to the income of owners of these vehicles, which is substantially higher than for the average population. The hourly cost for passengers in public transport vehicles in rural areas may be at the lowest, and is equated with the opportunity cost of labor or minimum wage. The work time for bus passengers is valued at 0.5 times the average hourly income, twowheeler passengers at 1.0 times, and car passengers at 2.0 times. The value of bus passenger time was modified applying a shadow wage rate factor for unskilled labor. The value of nonwork time is taken as one-fourth of the value of work time. The value for the state gross domestic product per capita was obtained from the Economic Survey of India 2013 14 and projected for 2014 15 as Rs56,232. 3 The calculated values of time for each passenger-carrying vehicle is as follows: bus: working Rs22.2/hour, nonworking Rs5.5/hour; car: working Rs99.6/hour, nonworking Rs24.9/hour; and two- and three-wheelers: working Rs49.8/hour, nonworking Rs12.5/hour. 10. For goods-carrying vehicles, a value of time for cargo was calculated using the method suggested in the HDM manual taking the opportunity cost of cargo. The value of time for freight is calculated as the time value of goods in transit, i.e., the value of the goods carried times the commercial interest rate paid by the owners as an inventory cost. Considering the predominance of regional trade and main goods carried, a cargo value of Rs65,000 per ton is assumed and the opportunity cost of cargo delay or value of time for cargo is estimated considering 75% of cargo will benefit and an interest rate of 12%. 11. Salvage value. A straight-line depreciation method is used to calculate the salvage value of project elements at the end of the analysis period. Among the project elements, bituminous components are assumed to have a life of 20 years or less, with periodic renewal as needed, and to have no salvage value. The pavement structure below the bituminous layer in the widening portion is assumed to have a 30-year life for salvage value calculation. Bridges and cross-drainage structures can have a life of more than 40 years. Assuming a 40-year life for all structures, the salvage value was calculated on a straight-line depreciation method. The salvage value estimated is 8% 12% for the four road sections at the end of the analysis period. 12. Other parameters. Other parameters used, such as analysis period, discount rate, construction period, and the year of opening of the road for traffic after construction are presented in the Table 3. 2 ADB. 2011. Technical Assistance to India for Advanced Project Preparedness for Poverty Reduction State Road Projects (Subproject 20). Manila. 3 Government of India. 2014. Economic Survey of India 2013 14. Delhi.
4 Table 3: Other Input Parameters Used for the Highway Development and Management Model-4 Analysis Item Value Analysis period from opening year (years) 20 Discount rate (%) 12 Construction period (years) 3 Construction start year 2016 Opening year for traffic 2019 13. Construction and maintenance alternatives. The construction and maintenance alternatives for the HDM analysis are defined based on the improvement options identified. Based on the traffic and capacity assessment, a two-lane configuration with paved shoulders is adopted for the road sections. The construction cost estimate for project options is based on detailed design and bill of quantities. The cost estimate includes the civil works cost, environmental impact mitigation costs, land acquisition and resettlement costs, utility shifting costs, relevant consulting services, and physical contingencies. The economic costs of construction were derived from the financial construction cost by applying a conversion factor of 0.85 derived by removing transfer payments and using opportunity costs of labor. The land acquisition costs are accounted equivalent to the economic loss of agricultural production, which is calculated as the product of net revenue of agricultural product per hectare and hectares to be acquired over a 40-year period. The periodic maintenance unit costs adopted are based on the unit cost estimates for the project. Traffic congestion during construction will be minimized by the traffic management plan; the impact is considered marginal. 14. Economic assessment. An economic analysis was conducted for the project road sections. On the benefit side, only vehicle operating cost savings and travel time savings are quantified and included. Other benefits include accident cost savings and environmental benefits. The improvement in geometry, road signs and markings, and improved layout in town sections are likely to reduce accidents. At the same time, the increase in speed resulting from the improvements may increase the severity of accidents. The main environmental benefit will be from capacity augmentation and reduced congestion and vehicle emissions. Overall the impact will be positive but reduced accident benefits and vehicle emissions were not quantified and included in the analysis. 15. The results of the economic analysis using the HDM-4 model for the project road are summarized in Table 4. The first year rate of return is reported in the table. The results indicate that the project development option has a rate of return well above the opportunity cost of 12%. The first year rate of return is also above the opportunity cost indicating that the project proposal is timely. The cash flow streams for all road sections are given in Table 5. Table 4: Results of the Economic Analysis Road Sections EIRR (%) NPV (Rs million) Dumka Hansdiha Road 14.9 617.3 Giridih Jamua Sarwan Road 18.0 934.8 Gobindpur Tundi Giridih Road 19.0 1,294.6 Khunti Tamar Road 15.5 361.6 All Road Sections 16.9 3,208.3 EIRR = economic internal rate of return, NPV = net present value.
5 Year Table 5: Cash Flow Stream for Project Road Sections (Rs million) Increase in Road Agency Costs Capital Cost Maintenance Cost Decrease in Road User Costs Vehicle Operating Cost Time Cost Net Benefit 2016 1,744.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1,744.0) 2017 3,488.10 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3,488.1) 2018 3,488.10 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3,488.1) 2019 0.00 9.5 1,018.6 386.9 1,396.0 2020 0.00 9.5 987.5 413.3 1,391.3 2021 0.00 9.5 1,039.2 442.3 1,471.9 2022 0.00 9.5 1,067.3 474.4 1,532.1 2023 0.00 9.5 1,135.2 509.0 1,634.6 2024 0.00 1,154.0 1,118.6 537.3 501.9 2025 0.00 9.5 1,394.4 570.1 1,954.9 2026 0.00 9.5 1,445.1 604.6 2,040.2 2027 0.00 9.5 1,557.8 641.9 2,190.2 2028 0.00 9.5 1,595.6 681.4 2,267.4 2029 0.00 9.5 1,691.7 719.9 2,402.1 2030 0.00 1,153.9 1,711.3 760.9 1,318.3 2031 0.00 9.5 2,063.1 806.5 2,860.1 2032 0.00 9.5 2,150.0 854.3 2,994.8 2033 0.00 9.5 2,318.9 906.9 3,216.3 2034 0.00 9.5 2,388.8 958.1 3,337.4 2035 0.00 9.5 2,536.5 1,013.3 3,540.3 2036 0.00 1,153.9 2,604.7 1,073.0 2,523.8 2037 0.00 9.5 3,030.0 1,138.9 4,159.3 2038 (897.99) 9.5 3,178.5 1,209.3 5,276.2 EIRR (%) 16.9 NPV @ 12% 3,208.3 ( ) = negative value, EIRR = economic internal rate of return, NPV = net present value. 16. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to investigate the robustness of the economic viability of the project to cost over-runs and benefit reductions. The following cases were analysed: (i) base cost and base benefits, (ii) capital costs increased by 10% and base benefits, (iii) base cost and benefits decreased by 10%, (iv) capital costs increased by 10% and benefits decreased by 10%, and (v) 1-year delay in construction. 17. The results of the sensitivity analyses for the road corridors are given in Table 6. With an increase in capital costs of 10% and a reduction in benefits of 10%, both project corridors have an economic internal rate of return above 12%. Based on the economic analysis of the project options, as well as on the engineering and traffic assessment, the project is recommended for implementation.
6 Road Sections Table 6. Sensitivity Analysis Results Economic Internal Rate of Return (%) Cost Benefits Cost Increased 1-Year Delay Base Increased Reduced and Benefits in Case by 10% by 10% Reduced by 10% Construction Dumka Hansdiha Road 14.9 13.7 13.5 12.5 14.6 Giridih Jamua Sarwan Road 18.0 16.6 16.4 15.1 17.3 Gobindpur Tundi Giridih Road 19.0 17.6 17.4 16.0 18.2 Khunti Tamar Road 15.5 14.2 13.9 12.7 14.9 Road Sections Base Case Net Present Value (Rs million) Cost Benefits Cost Increased Increased Reduced and Benefits by 10% by 10% Reduced by 10% 1-Year Delay in Construction Dumka Hansdiha Road 617.3 399.2 320.4 102.3 533.9 Giridih Jamua Sarwan Road 934.8 772.8 660.9 499.1 798.6 Gobindpur Tundi Giridih Road 1,294.6 1,109.2 962.3 776.8 1,120.5 Khunti Tamar Road 361.6 245.1 190.5 74.0 290.2 Road Sections Increase in Cost Switching Value (%) Reduction of Increase in Cost and Benefits Reduction of Benefits Dumka Hansdiha Road 28.3 (20.8) +/-12.0% Giridih Jamua Sarwan Road 57.7 (34.1) +/-21.5% Gobindpur Tundi Giridih Road 69.8 (39.0) +/-25.0% Khunti Tamar Road 31.0 (21.1) +/-12.6% ( ) = negative value. Note: For switching values, the +/- indicate the percentage by which cost increases and benefit decreases to result in a net present value of 0. D. Financial Analysis 18. The budget allocated for roads and bridges capital expenditure in FY2014 is about Rs21,275 million. Of this, Rs2,683 million is allocated for maintenance under the nonplan budget category of state highways, which is sufficient for routine maintenance of all roads under RCD. 4 Periodic resurfacing has been conducted under the plan budget category. 5 This shows the budget allocation for the existing state roads in Jharkhand is sufficient. 6 19. Incremental recurrent costs associated with the project are estimated to be 1.2% of the current road maintenance budget of the state government. Periodic maintenance cost of the project roads is estimated as 0.7% of the overall Road Construction Department budget in FY2014. Initial 5-year maintenance will be covered under the performance-based contract, which is budgeted as part of the project cost. Thus, the state government can reasonably be expected to afford to allocate sufficient budget to the State Highways Authority of Jharkhand to maintain the project roads. 4 Jharkhand Infrastructure Development Corporation. 2013. Road Prioritization Study cum Vision Document for Identification of Viable Road Sections to be development in PPP Mode in the State of Jharkhand. Ranchi. The Road Construction Department is responsible for maintenance of 6,876 km as of the end of April 2013. Routine maintenance cost is estimated at about $20 million assuming $3,000 per km. 5 Resurfacing cost is estimated at $48 million per year assuming $35,000 per km every 5 years. This represents about 15% of the plan budget in FY2014. 6 Sector Assessment (accessible from the list of linked documents in Appendix 2).