Material demand for batteries and potential supply constraints IEA seminar on e-mobility Benjamin Jones Managing Consultant CRU Consulting March 7 218
The EV revolution is demanding larger proportions of some key commodities Automotive demand as % of total demand Lithium 35% 47% Cobalt 8% 23% Nickel 2% 6% 216 221 Automotive demand growth as % of total demand growth, 216-221 Lithium 77% Cobalt 63% Nickel 29% Copper 14% Data: CRU but what are the key drivers of market opportunities and risks? 2
215 217 219 221 223 225 227 229 China s EV policy is evolving rapidly from subsidies to quotas NEV program China Subsidy Made in China A new subsidy scheme Credit/quota system Sales of new ICE Introduced its NEV program to support EVs 21 Introduction of subsidies to support NEVs 212 To support innovative and technology upgrades to boost high technology industrial sector including EVs. 215 Eliminate subsidies for NEVs that have recharge mileage. NEV subsidies to decline by 2% from 217. Subsidies for higher quality passenger EVs will remain attractive. 216 Implementing a minimum NEVs sale share for each carmakers from April 218, from 1% in 219 and 12% by 221. 217 China is drawing up plans to phase out the sale of new ICE Under review 1 2 3 4 5 BEV market share in China, 217-23 % 15% 1% 5% % New producer mandate boosts BEV market share by c. 4% in 225 Incremental demand under crediting system 225, % 217 demand in China 4% 3% 294% 221% 2% 1% % 8% 9% Copper Lithium Cobalt Nickel Pre China NEV policy CRU, NDRC, MIIT, MOST Post China NEV policy recent policy reforms likely to spur metals demand, particularly for li & co 3
Metal intensities differ in new vehicle & energy storage technologies Cathode composition by battery storage technology KGs per kwh 1.5 1.5 Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide battery (NCA) 1:1:1 5:3:2 8:1:1 Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NCM) Aluminium Manganese Nickel Cobalt Lithium Battery technology in China, 225 BEV market share, % Slow case Base case Rapid case NCA NMC (1:1:1) NMC (5:3:2) NMC (6:2:2) NMC (8:1:1) NMC/LMO LMO LFP Change in metal demand 225 compared to base deviation from 225 baseline, % 217 demand 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% 378% -11% Cobalt Slow case Rapid case innovation in NCM cathode a major driver of future ni & co demand -113% Nickel 251% 4
5 Ride sharing has huge potential impacts on vehicle demand Ride hailing, car ownership costs & replacement demand in China, 235 Total annual cost of use, $ 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 EVs greater cost advantage High uptake of ride sharing 2m car parc Reduction in replacement car demand due to ride hailing Low uptake of ride sharing Data: CRU 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5m car parc Annual car replacement, millions this disruption is more likely in an EV world
DOWNTREND UPTREND Key takeaways for nickel, lithium, cobalt, and copper prices Nickel Lithium Cobalt Copper Further Ni substitution away from Co as battery technology continues to develop (e.g. 8:1:1 for 5:3:2) Faster uptake, growth of EV market than expected Inability of new producers to rapidly ramp up battery grade material production results in more persistent deficits Looming deficits DRC supply disruptions lead to price spikes Depressed Cu & Ni prices keep Cu-Co, Ni-Co production low Need to build out / reinforce distribution networks Transformers and motors needed for EVS drive up wire demand Supply challenge is to increase availability of battery grade nickel sulphate to match rapid demand growth Large stocks of LME grade material available Emergence of superior battery technology, fuel cell vehicles Project enthusiasm creates oversupply Price and supply risks leads to continued & increased substitution away from Co battery chemistries Emergence of, say, a pouch based cell technology or with no need for Cu foil that limits Cu demand inside battery packs Data: CRU 6
7 Benjamin Jones Managing Consultant Tel: +44 2 793 2252 Email: ben.jones@crugroup.com CRU International Limited London Sydney Tokyo Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Mumbai Toronto New York Pittsburgh Sao Paulo Santiago Registered in England No.9475. Registered office: 11 Finchley Road
Overview of demand modelling framework Policy Transport & power Macro EV Policy Carbon emission costs Oil prices Congestion Car sharing EV related power demand Energy efficiency Long term car demand growth Consumer preferences Electricity generation Materials Technology Manufacturing capabilities (EVs, hybrids, ICE, fuel cell) Renewables Availability Characteristics Price / quality trade-off OEM strategy Material Selection Thermal power Nuclear/ hydro Demand for Different Materials Ni Li Cu Ag Bx Fe Coal Economics, policy, technology and consumer preferences determine metals demands
Analysing cost curves key to understanding price risk Metal business cost curve, 218 1=5 th percentile Nickel Lithium Cobalt 1 st quartile 2 nd quartile 3 rd quartile 4 th quartile 25 Copper 2 15 1 Ø 5 9
Years Timing mismatch in the supply chain: room for bottlenecks Timing mismatch in the supply chain, a glut can occur anywhere due to volume, quality and obtaining accreditation Time to Enter LIB Supply Chain Constructio n Other Mine Converter Precursor and cathode Battery Maker NEV Producer 1 8 6 4 2 Mine Conversion Facility Precursor/cathode Battery maker Car Maker Average Construction Time 1.5 years 1.5 years 6 months 2-3 years n/a Other Time Requirements Exploration to construction: New plant to produce stablised lithium chemicals: Lithium chemical accreditation process in battery use: Government and EV maker accreditation process EV/LIB design: Average 5 years + 6 months 6 months + Up to 12 month 8+ years 1
Chemical market well-supplied due to additional volumes from Katanga & ERG Annual Cobalt supply-demand balance Tonnes 12, 1, Cobalt price ($/lb) S/D Deficit (tonnes) 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 Global Metal Balance Global Non-metal Balance but the metal market remains tight due to low metal refining capacity 11