Current State of Voluntary Renewable Energy Markets Lori Bird, NREL Renewable Energy Markets Conference 2012 Washington, D.C. September 25, 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Presentation Overview Size and Attributes of the Voluntary Market Voluntary Market Information by: o Tracking System o EPA o EIA State Highlights Utility Highlights Community Solar Summary and Trends 2
Millions of MWh Annually Voluntary Market Indicators 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 NREL Estimated Total Voluntary Market Green-e Energy Retail Sales EPA-GPP Sales Tracking System Estimate The overall voluntary market continues to exhibit strong growth. Tracking systems have become more comprehensive and better utilized, with 90% growth in use during 2011. Sources: CRS 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, REC Tracking Systems 3
4 Data Sources and Limitations U.S EPA s Green Power Partnership o Provided data on magnitude of purchases by its corporate, institutional, and government partners. More than 1,300 U.S. organizations; most of large purchasers. Center for Resource Solutions Green-e Energy retail sales o Reports certified sales; represented 65% of total voluntary market in 2010. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) o Collects data from utilities and marketers in two ways: Annual data (2011 not released yet) Monthly data (sample of respondents, 2011 data available) Regional REC tracking systems o Publically available data on voluntary RECs issued; some tracking systems report retired RECs as well.
Millions of MWh Annually 5 Green-e Energy Retail Sales up Est. 20% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Green Pricing Competitive Electricity RECs 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Green-e Energy retail sales increased an estimated 21% from 2010 to 2011. 2011 estimated retail sales total approximately 28 million MWh.
Institutional Purchasing Growth Jan. 2011 to Jun. 2012 New to Top 50 Microsoft City of Austin McDonnald s USA NYSE Euronext City of Philadelphia Google Citi Increased Purchase Wal-Mart Stores, Inc/CA and TX Lockheed Martin Corp. BD Hilton Worldwide U.S. Department of Energy Sprint Lowe s 6
Annual Generation by Customer Size (Millions of MWh) 7 EPA GPP Annual Sales by Customer Size 25 20 15 < 1,000 MWh load 1,001-10,000 MWh load 10,001-100,000 MWh load > 100,000 MWh load 10 5-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 The largest customers continue to dominate in terms of purchasing volume, accounting for 80% of total GPP sales in 2011. Source: EPA, 2012. Note: 2012 data is through June 31, 2012.
Millions of MWh annually 8 Compliance and Voluntary Markets 80 70 60 28% Growth Compliance (new renewables) 50 40 NREL Estimated Total Voluntary Market Green-e Energy Retail Sales 30 20 10 EPA-GPP Sales Tracking System Estimate - 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: CRS, 2012; EPA, 2012; Tracking Systems, 2012. The RPS driven compliance market continues to exhibit strong growth (28% in 2011). It will likely grow to more than 150 million MWh by 2015.
9 Green Power Sales by State Leading states often have multiple utilities actively engaging their customers to participate in green power programs. Source: EIA, 2011. Note: Incorporates EIA reporting entities only.
Sample: Utility Green Power Customers Number of Green Power Customers 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Portland General Electric Co PacifiCorp Sacramento Municipal Util Dist Puget Sound Energy Inc Public Service Co of Colorado Wisconsin Electric Power Co Connecticut Light & Power Co PECO Energy Co Northern States Power Co - Minnesota Los Angeles Department of Water & Power New York State Elec & Gas Corp Virginia Electric & Power Co Consumers Energy Co Public Service Co of NM Madison Gas & Electric Co Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. Wisconsin Power & Light Co Interstate Power and Light Co 2011 2010 Total customer participation for the 20 largest programs grew by 6.5% in 2011, to a total of 490,000 customers. Source: EIA, 2012. Note: The EIA 826 dataset is not a comprehensive list of utilities, rather a selection of industry respondents. 10
Sample: Utility Program Penetration Rates 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Portland General Electric Co Sacramento Municipal Util Dist Madison Gas & Electric Co Lower Valley Energy Inc PacifiCorp Los Alamos County Black Hills Electric Coop, Inc City of Eugene - (OR) Emerald People's Utility Dist Puget Sound Energy Inc Connecticut Light & Power Co Public Service Co of NM New York State Elec & Gas Corp City of Newark - (DE) Public Service Co of Colorado City of Fort Collins - (CO) Central Vermont Pub Serv Corp Poudre Valley R E A, Inc 2011 2010 Average participation rate in 2011 for the largest 20 programs in terms of green power customers was 2.9% (range = 0.5% to 9.8%). Average participation rate for all programs reported to EIA in 2011 was 0.9%. Source: EIA, 2012. Note: The EIA 826 dataset is not a comprehensive list of utilities, rather a selection of industry respondents. 11
12 Community Solar Development Selected Programs Utility/Provider UniSource Energy Services (AZ) San Miguel Power Association/Clean Energy Collective (CO) Colorado Springs (CO) Brewster Community Solar Garden Coop. Inc. (MA) Program Name Bright Arizona Community Solar Program Size (kw) Program Start Year 1,720 2012 SMPA Community Solar 1,000 2012 Community Solar Garden Facility Incentive Program Brewster Community Solar Garden 500 2012 345 2012 Acorn Energy Coop. (VT) Acorn Energy Solar One 150 2012 Poudre Valley REA/Clean Energy Collective (CO) Olympia (WA) United Power (CO) Community Solar 115 2012 Olympia WA, SunSlice Deal Sol Partners Coop. Solar Farm 75 2012 10 2012
13 Highlights 2011 voluntary sales grew on the order of 20% (EPA-GPP 22%, Green-e 19%) New large companies undertaking purchases: Microsoft, McDonalds, Coca-Cola Dodd-Frank did not consider RECs to be swaps; averting concerns about REC markets Tracking system sales in 2011 grew by 90%, to just under 40 million MWh ERCOT remains largest voluntary market, at 20 million MWh, by significant share REC prices remain low, under $1/MWh Mixed participation among utility programs, some losing customers, others showing gains Community solar a small but bright spot, most new programs
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Market Brief: Status of the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificate Market (2011 Data) http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/56128.pdf NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.