Rail~Volution 2010 Click to edit Master title style Transit in Bay Area Blueprint October 21, 2010 0
Bottom Line State-of-Good Repair essential for reliable transit service large funding shortfalls BART not out of capacity today Ridership could dramatically grow Capacity improvements not in regional plan (T2035) MPO s need to consider transit capacity in regional Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) 1
BART Basics 360,000 daily riders 104 miles 43 stations 1.3 billion annual passenger miles 2
Bay Area 2035 Forecast Growth San Francisco Oakland Population 2035 2 million more 37% of regional growth in SJ,SF and OAK 2/3 rd of regional in Urban Core (around Bay) Employment 2035 1.8 million more Of top 10 growth areas, 2/3 rd of regional growth will be in SJ, SF and OAK San Jose 3 3
California Climate Policy Framework AB32 CA Global Warming Solutions Act 1990 emissions levels by 2020 Executive Order #S-3-05 (2005) 80% below 1990 emissions by 2050 SB375 Sustainable Communities Strategy (2008) Regional GHG Emission Targets for Autos / Light Trucks 4
California SB 375 Reforms Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) California Air Resources Board (CARB) establishes regional GHG targets for cars and light duty trucks (travel) Regions design Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS) as part off their RTP Consistency between transportation t ti investments, t land use, and housing allocations 5
California SB 375 CARB Implementation 6
California SB 375 CARB Implementation % reduction in GHG / capita from 2005 levels Established for 2020 and 2035 7
50+ Years of History, 35+ Years of Service B A R T 1946 1957 1962 1964 1970 1972 Bay Area Council & others begin discussions BART District Created Voters Approve BART Plan Construction Begins BART Car Prototype Created BART Carries First Passenger 8
Critical Reinvestment Needs After 35 years, reinvestment and upgrades are vital Investment projects include: Replace/Add Rail cars Station Modernization Track Improvements Traction Power Capacity Enhancements Train Control/Communication systems 9
BART Capital Program for Core System Major Funding Shortfalls $14 BART Capital Program (a) ($billion) $12 $10 $8 Shortfall Funded (b) $ billion $6 $4 $2 $0 Core Infrastructure Renovation Existing Fleet Replacement Capacity Modifications (a) Not shown are $30 million in Security improvements and $30 million in Quality Enhancements (b) Funding as "programmed" in MTC 2035 Regional Transportation Plan 10
BART Ridership Current Travel Markets 2/3rds of BART trips to/from Market Street stations East Bay Weekday Trips by Sub-Area 48%: Transbay 28%: intra-west Bay 24%: intra-east Bay Transbay West Bay 11
BART Average Daily Ridership Historic Trends and Projections BART Ridership and SF Job Growth 900000 700000 800000 700000 SF Jobs (1) Daily BART Riders 2035 High: 660,000 600000 2035 Low: 536,000 500000 600000 1) SF Jobs ( 500000 400000 400000 300000 Daily BART Rid dership SF Jobs Historic i BART Ridership BART FY08 SRTP (FY09 - FY16) MTC T2035 w/o Project MTC T2035 w/ Project 300000 200000 200000 100000 100000 0 0 1969 1974 1979 1984 (1) US Bureau of Labor Statistics 1989 1994 1999 Year 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 12
minute inter rval) 3500 3000 Patrons Entering & Exiting BART (15-Minute Intervals) Where Do Patrons Enter and Exit? Embarcadero Montgomery 2500 2000 Patr rons (per 15 1500 1000 Civic Center Powell Balboa Park 12th Street 500 0 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Source: BART DAS data, April 2008 Time of Day 13
Sustainable Communities Strategy Shape Demand Morning Travel Markets 1) Policy (pricing, parking) 2) Land Use / Job Centers Expand where ample transit capacity reverse commute regional employment subcenters off-peak 14
Capacity Constraints Where Could BART See Problems in the Future? On-Board Train Crowding Passenger per Seat or per Car (Load Factors) Train Control System Vehicles SF Downtown Stations Platform Crowding g( (PM) Stair, Escalator & Faregate Queuing (AM) Emergency Exiting Yards & Shops Station Access 15
Transbay Corridor Management Illustrative ti Phased Improvements over 50 Years Max. Load Point in peak direction (future peak hour increase) Short < 2,500 Medium 2,500 7,500 Long 7,500 12,000 BART Remove Train Seats Demand Management Strategies Station Access Station Capacity 3-Door Train Fleet Train Control Improvements Expand Train Fleet Bus Construct New Transbay Tube + Stations Transbay Terminal Bay Bridge Contra-Flow Lane 16
JR Railway (Japan) Supply-Side Side Strategy 17
Capacity Overview Questions? 18