VEHICLE AUTOMATION. CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE MOBILITY. Dr. Thomas Helmer, BMW AG SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017
ROAD TRAFFIC: MANY INDIVIDUALS WITH LITTLE OVERALL MANAGEMENT. A SHORT GLANCE AT TYPICAL SITUATIONS Source: www.youtube.com/results?search_query= simple+solition+to+traffic Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 2
THE TECHNOLOGY OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING HAS A GREAT IMPACT FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND THE COMMUNITY. MORE COMFORT MORE TIME MORE FLEXIBILITY MORE SAFETY HIGH-PERFORMANCE-COMPUTING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COMPUTER VISION SENSOR RAW DATA PROCESSING LESS ACCIDENTS LESS PARKING LOT SEARCH LESS TRAFFIC LESS CO 2 VALIDATION METHODS SYSTEM SAFETY AND ROBUSTNESS Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 3
AIR AND ROAD TRAFFIC: THE SAFETY SITUATION. Fatalities per year (worldwide) Relative risk per bil. passenger miles (US) Road traffic 1 250 000 Air traffic 425* WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015 * avg. 2012-2016, ICAO Safety Report 2017 Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 4
ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY BECOMES A GLOBAL CONCERN. STRONG DIFFERENCES AROUND THE WORLD REGARDING MODALITY AND RISK. Leading cause of death Source: WHO: Global status report on road safety 2015 Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 5
DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC SAFETY. EXAMPLE GERMANY. SAFETY MEASURES SHOW EFFECT. Accidents / fatalities / injured persons / mileage (1970 = 100%) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Federal Statistical Office DESTATIS.de Time series accident data 1970 2016, Germany Mileage Accidents Injured persons Fatalities Example Germany: Reduction of fatalities from 1970 (21332) to 2016 (3206) by approx. 6/7. Year Active Safety Passive Safety 766 bil. km (305%) 2,6 Mio. (186%) 396666 (69%) 3206 (15%) EU-28 2016: 25500 fatalities US 2016: 37461 fatalities Sources: EU: European Commission - Fact Sheet, MEMO/17/675 US: 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview, DOT HS 812 456 Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 6
LEVEL OF AUTOMATION FOR ON-ROAD VEHICLES. 0 1 2 3 4 5 HANDS ON EYES ON HANDS ON EYES ON HANDS TEMP. OFF EYES TEMP. OFF HANDS OFF EYES OFF HANDS OFF MIND OFF HANDS OFF DRIVER OFF Longitudinal or lateral control Traffic control Awareness for take over No driver intervention No active assistance system No driver TASK OF THE DRIVER Longitudinal or lateral control Longitudinal and lateral control Take over request No take over request TASK OF THE CAR NO AUTOMATION DRIVER ASSISTANCE PARTIAL AUTOMATION CONDITINAL AUTOMATION HIGH AUTOMATION FULL AUTOMATION HUMAN TRANSITION OF RESPONSIBILITY (control and guidance) MACHINE Source: SAE J3016, Taxonomy and Definitions for Terms Related to Driving Automation Systems for On-Road Motor Vehicles. Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 7
ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS. CURRENT STATE OF THE ART: BMWX3 SERIES. Source: BMW Nederland www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-ok6wnqq1s Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 8
ADVANCED DRIVER ASSISTANCE IN THE NEW BMW 5 SERIES. COMFORT AND SAFETY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. Crossing traffic warning rear / front Top View Remote Night Vision Lane keeping assistant with active side collision protection Active cruise control with Stop&Go function Rear collision prevention Crossroad Assist Lateral parking aid Distance information Lane departure warning 3D View Top View Parking assistant Active Park Distance Control BMW Selective Beam Remote Control Parking Steering and lane control assistant Panorama View Speed Limit Device Speed limit and No Pass information Wrong Way Assist Lane change warning Speed Limit Assist Approach control warning with braking function Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 9
MORE TIME, NEW MOBILITY, INCREASED EFFICIENCY, DIFFERENT CITIES,... Source (t.l. clockwise): autovolts.com; globalspec.com; wordpresscom; 2025ad.com; inserts (t.l. clockwise): techmalak.com; scania.com; abc7news.com Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 10
ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC. NEW CONCEPTS COULD EXTEND ROAD TRAFFIC TO THE THIRD DIMENSION. Source (l. to. r.): Daimler; theverge.com Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 11
ROAD AND AIR TRAFFIC. DIFFERENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS AND DIFFERENT OPERATORS. Inhomogeneous driver groups (experienced / inexperienced, old / young, etc.) Mixed infrastructure with other traffic participants No overall traffic management or control Highly trained personnel Dedicated flight corridors Exclusive infrastructure / overall traffic control Source (l. to. r.): BMW, shutterstock.com; eurocontrol.int; lufthansa.com Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 12
THE OPTIMAL LEVEL OF AUTOMATION DEPENDS ON THE DRIVING TASK. ACTIVATION MODEL FOLLOWING YERKES / DODSON (1908). Delegation of tasks Information / foresight Safety functions Performance of the driver Requirements Performance BOREDOM CONTROL, FLOW STRESS Need of assistance or automation UNDERLOAD OPTIMUM OVERLOAD Difficulty of driving task Bored out ideal Burned out Maximum performance by the human can be reached at a medium level of strain. Source: based on http://www.viriya.net/jabref/the_relation_of_strength_ of_stimulus_to_rapidity_of_habit-formation.pdf Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 13
ASSISTANCE AIMS AT THE COMBINATION OF ADVANTAGES OF BOTH HUMAN AND MACHINE IN THE DRIVER-VEHICLE SYSTEM. Rapiddecision-making, even in highly complex situations Flexibility to respond to the situation as required No susceptibility to fatigue, stress or distraction Continuous improvement of collective knowledgeby learning Rapid interpretation of (previously unknown) situations Instantaneous ethical assessment of situations Source: BMW Forward-thinking responses / anticipation Strongly developed ability to improvise Fast pre-programmedreaction with high level of precision Objective measuring and assessment of physical values such as distance,relative speed or acceleration Precise and reliable repetition of pre-defined processes Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 14
THE HUMAN IS NOT MADE FOR MONITORING TASKS. GENERAL EFFECTS OF AUTOMATION ARE WELL KNOWN. Humans are not built for monitoring tasks (Reason et al. 1990) 99% boredom and 1% panic fear (Kraiss, 1994) Monitoring drivers are less likely to intervene (Gold et al. 2013) Drivers engage more in non-driving related tasks when driving automated (Carsten et al. 2012) Source picture: BMW The more advanced a control system is, so the more crucial may be the contribution of the human operator (Bainbridge, 1983) Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 15
SPECIFIC CHALLENGES OF VEHICLE AUTOMATION. Certification Trust Test / validation Reliability Mode awareness Safety Acceptance Overreliance in automation Take over process Ethics Situation awareness Loss of skill Liability Security Risks of automation Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 16
INCREASED VEHICLE AUTOMATION. WHERE ARE WE TODAY? Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 17
DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS. DRIVING SPEED & SCENARIO COMPLEXITY AS KEY FACTORS. L4/5: 1st Generation >2025 (Phase-In >2020) L2: e.g. BMW 7&5-series, today Complexity Traffic Scenario Inner City New Mobility Concepts Next Generation? Rural Flow & Safety L3/L4: 1st Generation (L3) >2020 2nd Generation (L4) Highway Travelling Comfort & Safety Driving Speed Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 18
ONE POSSIBLE FUTURE: ADEQUATE ASSISTANCE AND AUTOMATION IN EVERY SITUATION. Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 19
CONCLUSION. 1 2 3 4 Automation promises new business models, increased traffic safety, and improved traffic efficiency. Understanding the driver, traffic situations and related driving tasks is essential for successful driver assistance and automation. Increasing automation poses new challenges to human-machine-interaction as well as testing & validation of functions. The successful introduction and full realization of potentials of automation in road traffic depends on a comprehensive knowledge of human, technology, and traffic. Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Seite 20
Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 21
IMPLICATIONS FOR CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION (L3). THE DRIVER WILL REMAIN A CRITICAL PART. If a system limit is encountered, the driver must take over control within a given period. The driver remains the fallback level for scenarios the automation is not able to handle. Driver performance is therefore crucial for ensuring safety for highly automated vehicles. Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 22
TAKE OVER SCENARIO FOR L3 HIGHWAY PILOT. Source: BMW Vehicle Automation SESAR Innovation Days 11.2017 Page 23