INFRASTRUCTURE MARKETS, STAKEHOLDERS, AND NEEDS THROUGH 2025-2030 Michael Nicholas Gil Tal 1
VEHICLE PURCHASE, DRIVING, AND CHARGING AFFECT EACH OTHER Expand market $ Vehicle Purchase Driving Patterns Emission Reductions What are the policy goals for installing charging? Charging Grid Stability 2
WHAT POLICY GOALS DO WE WANT TO ACCOMPLISH WITH CHARGING AND WHICH ONES CONTRADICT EACH OTHER? Increase PEV sales as a substitute for conventional vehicles More chargers Encourage free charging in public? Greatest displaced petroleum for least infrastructure cost Fewer managed chargers (networked, smart, etc.) Make charging more expensive than home, but less than gasoline Reduce greenhouse gas and criteria pollutants More managed chargers, charge at work on renewable power Help stability of the grid Encourage work charging, more work charging 3
A TALE OF TWO BEVS: INCREASING CHARGER USAGE DOES NOT EQUAL INCREASED MILES Is switching charging from home to public with no increase in miles a success? Sales Maybe evmt No Emissions - Depends VGI - Depends Miles Driven Per Year Switching From Home to Public 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Who benefits? Who pays? 0 BEV Paid Charging BEV Free Charging Home Work Public DC 4
30 % OF BEV80S NEED CHARGING TO GET HOME AT LEAST ONCE/MONTH How many times in the last 30 days did you need out of home charging to complete your travel? 5
HOW DIFFICULT DOES FALLING GAS PRICES MAKE IT TO SELL ELECTRICITY? What are the economics of a charging station? Buy a kwh at 10 cents People will pay 13-18 cents/kwh Costs Total 18 cents/kwh including charger If Gas is $2.30, Break-even cost for: Plug-in Prius is 13 /kwh C-Max is 13 /kwh Volt is 18 /kwh $5000 to install over 10 years equals 8 cents/kwh =Challenging business case Electricity Price in Dollars/kWh Break even Cost of Electricity at Various Gasoline Prices $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 $1.80 $2.30 $2.80 $3.30 $3.80 $4.30 $4.80 $5.30 Dollars/Gallon of Gasoline Plug-in Prius Ford C-max Chevrolet Volt Leaf 6
HOW SHOULD WE DESIGN AND PLAN FOR A CHARGING NETWORK? A FRAMEWORK FOR DISCUSSION Modeling How to forecast for the future In-Use Charger Data 2015: What do drivers do? DC Public Work Home Surveys 2013-15: What do drivers want? 7
HOW DO LARGER BATTERIES SHAPE THE ROLE FOR CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE? Expands the market for vehicles. Garage orphans may buy. Increases the demand for charging Decreases the need for away from home charging for those with garages Increases the utility of L2 at home Fast charging demand stays relatively constant Increases the flexibility for Vehicle-Grid Integration. Public charging is more desirable than home charging. Solar/wind peaks. Larger battery PHEV capacity is effectively used Large battery BEVs relieve range concern. More will participate in VGI. 8
RESPONSE TO PRICE AT THE WORKPLACE SHOWS RANGE IS A SUBSTITUTE FOR CHARGERS In the charger or on the hood? Charging cost for vehicles vs Battery cost for vehicles Free - any range above 45-55 miles chargers are cheaper Home price above 20-30 miles chargers are cheaper Double home price chargers are always cheaper than the batteries 2,000,000 Free Charging Infrastructure vs Battery Cost Events per 100 Vehicles 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Workplace Charging Events per 100 Vehicles by Electric Range (Survey) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Vehicle Range 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Free Charging Double Lowest Home Rate Same as Lowest Home Price Log. (Free Charging) 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Log. (Same as Lowest Home Price) Log. (Double Lowest Home Rate) Charger cost Per 100 Vehicles Battery Cost per 100 Vehicles 9
WHAT IF WE WANTED TO SWITCH ALL CHARGING TO WORK FOR SOLAR VGI? 12,000 10,000 8,000 ASAP ALAP TOU-S Overgeneration from Duck Chart Megawatt-Hours 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-2,000 Time 10
BEVS HAVE LARGER BATTERIES BUT PHEVS HAVE RISK TOLERANCE 30% of commuters using BEV 100s can absorb 60% of overgeneration 11
SUMMARY Different policy goals result in different strategies for charger needs. Policy makers must decide what the goals are. Free charging is expensive from an infrastructure point of view Range is a substitute for charging and batteries are getting larger. Large BEVs may only use L2 at home or fast charging. PHEVs maybe the primary users of public L2 V2G matches workplace charging demand Managed charging at a low cost will address many policy goals. Selling electricity is not profitable accounting for installation and low gasoline prices. Role for policy to cover Capital? Infrastructure costs 8 cents/kwh Admin costs cents 2-4 cents/kwh Electricity cost 10 cents/kwh If break even costs are 15 cents what will fill in the gap? EV feel? VGI low cost electricity? Policy intervention? Gas increase? 12
RECOMMENDATIONS Mix of power levels to match usage. L1, L2, DC Fast Home Level 1 is being used effectively at home even for small battery BEVs Major barrier is utility rate structure and cost of electricity vs gas Work Only 30% of people need workplace charging to return home on electricity Congestion is caused by lack of chargers and inefficient use Pricing should be encouraged where practical Public Public charging can be work charging and vice versa (20%) Retail public charging is more often an amenity than a real benefit Fast Charging Network is too sparse to encourage reliable long distance charging. Consider charging plazas to increase reliability Fast charging is a backup to level 2 and should be encouraged as a companion where level 2 congestion is likely (near workplace). 13
QUESTIONS? Thank you Contact info Michael Nicholas mianicholas@ucdavis.edu Gil Tal gtal@ucdavis.edu 14