Automotive Production Forecasts In collaboration with The best available source of global and regional strategic information on light vehicle production. LMC s Automotive Production Forecasts offer comprehensive and detailed production forecasts for specific regions (Europe, North & South America, and Asia Pacific) and the global market (Global Automotive Production Forecast). They are vital tools for any component or OE manufacturer looking to gain an understanding of the light vehicle production industry. Knibb Gormezano & Partners The Essentials Seven-year production forecasts for light vehicles by manufacturer, make, model, bodystyle, platform and assembly plant International Management & Technology Consultants Years Full supporting text discussing the In-depth assessments of each major OEM, including capacity, strategies and prospects for future developments Product lifecycle charts, including start of production, end of production and next facelift dates macroeconomic developments underlying our forecasts Deliverables Annual, quarterly and/or monthly editions of the web-based report and updates, as well as full online browsing and download access to the report and data via LMC Automotive s Interactive Delivery System & Data Viewer For information about how our services can help enhance your business, please contact us at forecasting@lmc-auto.com. GLOBAL COMMERCIAL VEHICLE ENGINE, AFTERTREATMENT AND TRANSMISSION FORECAST Q2 2017 MARKET UPDATE www.kgpauto.com Issue 1
ABOUT US Knibb, Gormezano and Partners (KGP) provides consultancy services to the automotive and related industries worldwide. Since our foundation in 1988 we have helped over 500 companies worldwide grow and globalise. Our extensive global network is constantly being expanded to meet our customers requirements. SECTORS Light Vehicles (Cars and LCVs) Heavy Commercial Vehicles & Trailers Off-Highway and Industrial Vehicles Tractors and Agricultural Machinery Marine Components Materials Aftermarket ESP s PROJECTS Single Client Multi-Client Special Reports North America Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Rest of World CLIENTS Vehicle Manufacturers Component Suppliers Material Producers Service Providers (OE and Aftermarket) Government Finance Industry Others
Contents Table of Figures... 4 Table of Tables... 5 Disclaimer and Usage Rights... 7 Commercial Vehicle Engine Forecast Subscription Offer... 7 Acronyms... 8 Introduction... 9 Methodology... 9 Content... 9 Geographic Scope... 10 Regional Content... 10 Time Scope... 10 Market Outlook... 11 Legislative Outlook... 12 Commercial Vehicle Market Overview... 14 Production by Region... 17 Production by Emissions Solution... 19 Aftertreatment... 21 Production by Compliance Tier... 23 Indian Legislative Overview...24 North American Legislative Overview...26 European Legislative Overview...27 Chinese Legislative Overview...28 Captive vs Non-Captive Engines... 30 Top Engine Manufacturers... 33 Further Reading...34 Production by Segment... 35 Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Segment... 37 Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Sector Top Engine OEMs...39 Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Sector Top OEMs...40 Heavy Bus Segment... 42 Heavy Bus Segment Top Engine OEMs... 44 Heavy Bus Segment Top OEMs...45 Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Segment... 47 Medium Duty Commercial Vehicles Top Engine OEMs...50 Medium Duty Commercial Vehicles Top OEMs...51 Alternative Fuels and CO2... 53 Global Legislative Overview... 56 Brazil...56 China...57 Europe...59 India...60 Page 2
Japan...62 Korea...63 North America...64 Russia...65 Major OEM Engine Ranges Engine Programme Assumptions... 66 Ashok Leyland...66 CNHi...66 Cummins...66 Daimler...66 DongFeng...67 FAW...67 Foton...67 GAZ...67 Hino...68 International-Navistar...68 Isuzu...68 Kamaz...69 Paccar...69 Shanghai Diesel...69 Sinotruk...69 Tata...69 Volkswagen Group...70 Volvo Group...70 Weichai...70 Yuchai...70 Contacts... 78 About KGP... 79 Other Reports - Annual Review... 79 About LMC Automotive... 80 Page 3
Table of Figures Figure 1: Commercial Vehicle Production by Region 2013 2023...18 Figure 2: Global Commercial Vehicle Production Volume by Aftertreatment 2013 2023...22 Figure 3: Indian Legislation and Aftertreatment Trends...24 Figure 4: Production Volume by Indian Bharat Stage Compliance 2013-2023...25 Figure 5: Global Production Volume by North American EPA Compliance 2013-2023...26 Figure 6: Production Volume by European Euro Compliance 2013 2023...27 Figure 7: Chinese Legislation and Aftertreatment Trends...28 Figure 8: Global Production Volume by China State Compliance 2013-2023 29 Figure 9: Global Engine Production Captive vs Non-Captive Engines 2013-2023...31 Figure 10 Top 10 Engine Manufacturer Groups...34 Figure 11: Global Commercial Vehicle Production by Segment...36 Figure 12: Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Production by Region 2013-2023...38 Figure 13: Heavy Duty - Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...38 Figure 14: Heavy Duty Vehicle Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...39 Figure 15: Global Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Production Volume Top 25 OEMs (000s)...41 Figure 16: Heavy Bus Production by Region 2013 2023 (000s)...43 Figure 17: Heavy Bus Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...43 Figure 18: heavy Bus Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...44 Figure 19: Global Bus Production 2013 2023 Top 25 OEMs...46 Figure 20: Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Production by Region 2013 2023 (000s)...48 Figure 21: Medium Duty Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...49 Figure 22: Medium Duty Vehicle Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...50 Figure 23: Global Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Production Top 25 Brands...51 Figure 24: Global Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Production Volume Top 25 Brands (000s)...52 Figure 25: China Base Case Natural Gas Scenarios (000s Units)...53 Figure 26: Base Case Global Hybrid Forecast (000s Units)...54 Figure 27: Potential CO2 Technologies...55 Figure 28: Brazilian Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005-2025...56 Figure 29: Chinese Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005-2025...57 Page 4
Figure 30: Beijing Legislation Timing and Emissions Limits 2005 2025...58 Figure 31 European Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005-2025...59 Figure 32 India Urban Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005-2025...60 Figure 33 India Rural Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005 2025...61 Figure 34 Japan Legislative Timing...62 Figure 35 Korea Legislative Timing...63 Figure 36 US EPA, CARB and GHG Legislative Timing...64 Figure 37 Russia Legislative Timing...65 Figure 38 Assumed Engine Ranges for Euro III-VI (Diesel/Gas)...71 Table of Tables Table 1 Geographic Scope...10 Table 2: Global Commercial Vehicle Production Legislative Timing...12 Table 3: Short and Medium-Term Emissions Legislation Assumptions...13 Table 4: Short and Medium-Term OEM Outlook...15 Table 5: Production by Region 2013 2023 (000s)...17 Table 6: Global Commercial Vehicle Production by Compliance 2013 202319 Table 7: Global Production by Aftertreatment Solutions 2013-2023...21 Table 8: Global Production by Individual Aftertreatment Technologies 2013-2023...21 Table 9: Emissions Compliance Equivalence...23 Table 10: Global Production by Engine Source 2013-2023...30 Table 11: CV Engine Market Non-Captive Engine Share by Region...31 Table 12: Major OEMs Engine Sourcing Outlook Captive vs Non-Captive...32 Table 13: Global Production by Engine Manufacturer 2013-2023...33 Table 14: Top Drivers by Segment...35 Table 15: Global Commercial Vehicle Production by Segment 2013-202...35 Table 16: Global Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Production by Region 2013-2023...37 Table 17: Heavy Duty - Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...38 Table 18: Heavy Duty Vehicle Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...39 Table 19: Global Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicle Production Top 25 OEMs.40 Table 20: Heavy Bus Production by Region 2013 2023 (000s)...42 Table 21: Heavy Bus - Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...43 Table 22: Heavy bus Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...44 Table 23: Global Heavy Bus Production Top 25 OEMs (000s)...45 Page 5
Table 24: Global Medium Duty Commercial Vehicle Production by Region 2013-2023...47 Table 25: Medium Duty - Captive vs Non-Captive Engine Supply...48 Table 26: Medium Duty Vehicle Production Top 15 Engine OEMs...50 Page 6
Disclaimer and Usage Rights Information contained in this document has been obtained by Knibb, Gormezano & Partners from industry sources believed to be reliable. However, because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by our sources, Knibb Gormezano does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. This report is licensed for internal use only and should not be transmitted to 3rd parties without permission of Knibb Gormezano and Partners. Commercial Vehicle Engine Forecast Subscription Offer Purchasers of this report are entitled to a discounted extract of KGP s database within three (3) months of purchase, also available via our online-shop. The full database service costs 11250 for a single user download, with a quarterly summary report. A full subscription of 4 quarterly database deliveries, quarterly summary reports and the annual review is 22500. Page 7
Geographic Scope This report is a summary of KGP s Multi-Client subscription database covering global production of Commercial Vehicles and their engines across the following markets/regions: Table 1 Geographic Scope Report Region Asia Pacific Other China India Japan EU & EFTA C & E Europe North America Latin America Rest of World Countries South Korea China India Japan EU28 CIS, Turkey, Ukraine Canada, US Argentina, Brazil, Mexico Iran Regional Content 1. Top OEMs in the three key segments on a global basis. The three key segments, based on Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) are Buses (>6T), Medium Duty (6-16T) and Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicles (>16T). 2. Top engine OEMs, including who they supply to, where they produce engines. 3. Aftertreatment options and penetration. 4. Compliance and legislative effects on production and OEM participation in each given market Time Scope The horizon of the forecast in this report is 2012 2023. The full service database for the Commercial Vehicle Engine and Aftertreatment Forecast has a horizon out to 2027. Page 10
Legislative Outlook Legislation is the major driver forcing machine and engine development. Noxious emissions of HC, CO, NOx and PM are the main criteria emissions, limited by increasingly stringent legislation to less than 2% of an unregulated engine s typical emissions. Notable changes over the past year included: GHG II in the USA will change the dynamics of the engine development programmes. China Clean Air Act is a positive for several OEMs and aftertreatment suppliers because Chinese OEMs will need to develop relationships with more technically advanced companies to meet the new regulations. The potential investment changes following Brexit will be discussed at greater length. Table 2: Global Commercial Vehicle Production Legislative Timing Page 12
Aftertreatment Commercial vehicle aftertreatment solutions have been well established in the developed world for several years. Most vehicles produced in EU & EFTA, Japan, Korea and North America will have an aftertreatment package that includes SCR and DPF. The growth for aftertreatment solutions in emerging markets is likely to be SCR because of the poor fuel quality typically found in emerging markets. Table 7: Global Production by Aftertreatment Solutions 2013-2023 000's 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2015-2020 D 2015-2020 % None 1,298 1,101 565 541 311 298 313 330 345 357 369-235 -42% EGR 126 111 141 161 192 180 185 185 165 126 132 44 31% EGR, DOC 25 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 1 15% EGR, DOC, DPF 236 217 217 223 219 228 237 245 248 254 259 28 13% EGR, TWC 66 90 154 112 106 112 118 122 126 129 134-32 -21% SCR 864 651 826 1,131 1,405 1,319 1,389 1,295 1,331 1,314 1,367 469 57% SCR, DOC, DPF 1 26 48 52 54 56 58 61 64 66 68 13 27% SCR, EGR, DOC 1 1 0 0 4 5 5 7 8 8 9 7 2646% SCR, EGR, DOC, DPF 582 903 973 928 934 1,015 1,076 1,287 1,243 1,312 1,383 314 32% SCR, EGR, TWC - - - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0% SCR+EGR+DPF 0 0 0 0 - - 22 45 119 246 255 45 267153% Table 8: Global Production by Individual Aftertreatment Technologies 2013-2023 000's 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2015-2020 D 2015-2020 % EGR 1,036 1,331 1,494 1,434 1,467 1,551 1,654 1,903 1,923 2,088 2,185 408.4 27% SCR 1,448 1,580 1,847 2,110 2,397 2,395 2,552 2,697 2,766 2,947 3,084 849.9 46% DOC 845 1,156 1,248 1,213 1,222 1,314 1,387 1,611 1,575 1,651 1,730 362.9 29% DPF 819 1,146 1,238 1,202 1,207 1,299 1,393 1,638 1,675 1,878 1,964 399.8 32% EGR sees growth throughout the forecast period as OEMs in both developed and emerging markets use EGR as part of a combined aftertreatment solution. SCR growing throughout the forecast period as emerging markets start to tighten emissions regulations many OEMs from developing nations are using an SCR only solutions because of the cost and fitment benefits over more complicated combined solutions, that aren't quite necessary at the current level of legislation in developing markets. This is likely to change rather quickly with China's Clean Air Act being passed recently. DPF technologies are becoming increasingly important in developed nations as stricter regulations demand their use across the entire range Page 21
China On a world scale, it probably the Chinese market that is most critical, due to the overall size, but also the air quality issues in many of the major cities. China is not only reducing emissions it is also seeking to improve fuel economy across the segments. The ability of a planned economy has also allowed the government to incentivise new energy vehicles, which includes hybrids and electric buses, as well as natural gas trucks. We expect that China will adopt National Stage VI, an EU equivalent with domestic amendments by 2020. This will not only include the particle number limit, and advanced OBD, but also roadside monitoring of emissions, through a gantry system. Two stages of China VI are expected to be introduced starting in 2020/2021 and 2023/2024 respectively. Figure 29: Chinese Legislation Timings and Emissions Limits 2005-2025 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 China China II China III China IV China V China VI a China VI b Aftertreatment Trends No Aftertreatment No Aftertreatment Some SCR and EGR SCR Necessary SCR, DPF, DOC Necessary, Often EGR Test Cycle ECE-R49 ESC/ELR ESC/ELR ESC/ELR WHSC NOx Limit (g/kwh) 7.0 5.0 3.5 2.0 0.4 NOx % Reduction (From China I) PM Limit (g/kwh) 13% 0.15 38% 56% 75% 98% 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.01 PM % Reduction (From China I) 58.3% 70.6% 94.4% 94.4% 97.2% Page 57
Engine OEM Euro IV/EPA04 Euro V EPA07 Japan PNLT/09 Paccar Scania Volvo Group (Inc. Eicher) D0836/E0836 D2066 D2676 D2868 D3876 E2876 FR (Cummins) GR (Cummins) PR MX DC9/OC9 DC13 DC16 E483 E494 E694 D5 (Deutz) D7 (Deutz) D9 D11 D13 D16 D0836/E0836 D2066 D2676 D2866 D3876 E2876 FR (Cummins) GR (Cummins) PR MX DC9/OC9 DC13 DC16 E483 E494 E694 D5 (Deutz) D7 (Deutz) D9 D11 D13 D16 Cummins ISB3.9 ISB4.5 B4.5 Euro VI EPA10 Japan PPNLT/16 D0836/E0836 D2066 D2676 D2868 D3876 (E2876) PX5 (Cummins) PX7 (Cummins) MX11 MX13 DC9/OC9 DC13/OC13? DC16 (New update) CEP13 (New update) E483 E494 E694 D5/GH5 (MD) GH7 (MD) D8 (MD) D11 (HD) D13 (HD) D16 (HD) Page 73
Contacts Page 78
About KGP KGP is a global Automotive consultancy, founded in 1988. Contact us for global specialist automotive and related industry expertise including: 1. Market Intelligence 2. Technology Analysis 3. Non-Road Mobile Machinery 4. Commercial Vehicles 5. Light Vehicles 6. Electric and Hybrid Powertrains Clients include many global OEMs, Tier One, Two, Three and other suppliers, as well as other industry stakeholders. Other Reports - Annual Review In addition to the Global Quarterly Executive Summary (this document), KGP also provides an annual review covering each of the regions listed in the Geographic Scope, as well as Mini Profiles of each of the major Global OEMs. Page 79
About LMC Automotive LMC Automotive provides the highest quality global sales and production forecasts for Light Vehicles and Medium and Heavy commercial vehicles, along with forecasts of engine and transmission supply and demand. Our regular forecasting products include: Automotive Sales Forecasts Automotive Production Forecasts Engine & Transmission Forecasts Emerging Market Reports (China, India and ASEAN) Global Car & Truck Forecast Global Commercial Vehicle Forecast Global Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Forecast Global Automotive Scenarios Service European Trade & Inventory Service Recognised as leading experts in forecasting, LMC Automotive provides the automotive industry with strategic insights unavailable elsewhere. www.lmc-auto.com LMC Automotive has offices worldwide, as well as representation through MarkLines in Tokyo and CARCON in São Paulo. Page 80
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