What will contribute more to emissions reduction in Ireland in 2020 50,000 EVs or improving the efficiency of petrol and diesel cars? Eamonn Mulholland, Brian Ó Gallachóir UCC-ESRI Workshop ESRI, Dublin 9 th June 15
Overview 1. Current Irish private transport targets 2. Analysing our potential for meeting these targets 3. Effect meeting/missing these targets will have on emissions in the private transport sector
Current Irish Targets Legally Binding Legally Binding (on Manufacturers) EU Legislation: 130 gco 2 /km from new private cars by 2015 Ireland: (121 gco 2 /km in 2013) 95 gco 2 /km to apply to the entire car fleet by 2020 Non-Legally Binding NEEAP 2014: Revised ambition of 50,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020
Current Irish Targets Legally Binding Legally Binding (on Manufacturers) EU Legislation: 130 gco 2 /km from new private cars by 2015 Ireland: (121 gco 2 /km in 2013) 95 gco 2 /km to apply to the entire car fleet by 2020 Non-Legally Binding NEEAP 2014: Revised ambition of 50,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020
Current Irish Targets Legally Binding Legally Binding (on Manufacturers) EU Legislation: 130 gco 2 /km from new private cars by 2015 Ireland: (121 gco 2 /km in 2013) 95 gco 2 /km to apply to the entire car fleet by 2020 Non-Legally Binding NEEAP 2014: Revised ambition of 50,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020
Current Irish Targets Legally Binding Legally Binding (on Manufacturers) EU Legislation: 130 gco 2 /km from new private cars by 2015 Ireland: (121 gco 2 /km in 2013) 95 gco 2 /km to apply to the entire car fleet by 2020 Non-Legally Binding NEEAP 2014: Revised ambition of 50,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020
CarSTOCK Model The CarSTOCK model is a simulation model of the private car fleet in Ireland projected forward to 2050 Fuel Price and GNP are used to as the main drivers for the model Vehicles are disaggregated into a range of variables with given specific energy consumption for each type Total energy and emissions are calculated in the private transport sector in this model
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) New Car Emission Intensities Leading up to 2013 2% New Car Emissions Intensity Historic Data 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% 90-8% 70-10% 50 Ireland Ireland
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) New Car Emission Intensities Leading up to 2013 2% New Car Emissions Intensity Historic Data 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% 90-8% -10% Implementation of EU Regulation 70 50 Ireland Ireland
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) Efficiency Targets Achieved New Car Emissions Intensities 2020 Targets Achieved 2% 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% -8% 90 [VALUE] gco 2 /km 70-10% 50 Ireland Ireland
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) Efficiency Targets not Achieved New Car Emissions Intensities 2020 Targets not Achieved 2% 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% [VALUE] gco 2 /km 90-8% 70-10% 50 Ireland Ireland
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) Germany New Car Emissions Intensity Historic Data 2% 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% 90-8% 70-10% 50 Germany Germany
Annual Change in Emissions Intensity (%) New Car Emissions Intensity (gco 2 /km) Denmark New Car Emissions Intensity Historic Data 2% 190 0% 170-2% 150 130-4% 110-6% 90-8% 70-10% 50 Denmark Denmark
Electric Vehicles (EVs) Current revised ambition for Electric Vehicles in Ireland stands at 50,000 vehicles by 2020 Electric Vehicles are about three times more efficient than that of new petrol and diesel cars However the carbon intensity (gco 2 /MJ) of electricity was nearly twice the value of petrol and diesel in 2013 This poses the question of what will the gco 2 /km in EVs be compared to that of fossil fuelled cars in 2020
gco 2 /kwh Electricity Emissions Intensity 600 Emissions Intensity by Year 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour 2013 2014 2015
Electricity Carbon Intensity Compared to Petrol and Diesel gco 2 /MJ 180 [VALUE] gco 2 /MJ gco 2 /MJ 160 140 120 [VALUE] gco 2 /MJ 100 80 [VALUE] gco 2 /MJ 60 [VALUE] gco 2 /MJ 40 20 0 Petrol Diesel Electricity
Fuel Intensity of Electric Vehicles Compared to Petrol and Diesel Cars MJ/km 2.50 MJ/km 2.00 1.50 [VALUE] MJ/km 1.00 0.50 0.00 [VALUE] MJ/km Petrol Car Diesel Car Electric Car
Electric Vehicles
gco 2 /km EV Emissions Intensity to 2020 180 gco 2 /km 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Petrol Car Diesel Car Electric Car
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 6.50 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.00 Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.50 6.00 No Efficiency Improvement No Electric Vehicles Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions Low Efficiency, No EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.50 6.00 Efficiency Improvement of 1.5% p.a. No Electric Vehicles Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions Medium Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, No EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.50 6.00 No Efficiency Improvement 50,000 Electric Vehicles Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions Low Efficiency, No EVs Medium Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, 50,000 EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.50 6.00 Efficiency Targets Achieved No Electric Vehicles Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions Medium Efficiency, No EVs High Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, 50,000 EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.50 6.00 Efficiency Improvement of 1.5% p.a. 50,000 Electric Vehicles Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions High Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, No EVs Medium Efficiency, No EVs Medium Efficiency, 50,000 EVs Low Efficiency, 50,000 EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 6.50 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.00 Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 Efficiency Targets Achieved 50,000 Electric Vehicles 4.00 Historic Emissions High Efficiency, No EVs High Efficiency, 50,000 EVs Low Efficiency, 50,000 EVs Medium Efficiency, No EVs Medium Efficiency, 50,000 EVs Low Efficiency, No EVs
Scenario Analysis Overall Emissions 6.50 1,893,114 Cars in 2013 2,233,745 Cars in 2021 Private Car Emissions 6.00 Mt CO 2 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 Historic Emissions High Efficiency, No EVs Low Efficiency, 50,000 EVs
Conclusions In the short term, electric vehicles have a greater potential for emissions reduction than improving the energy efficiency of vehicles Petrol and diesel cars are limited in the emissions reductions they are capable of. Depending on the fuel mix providing the electricity, electric vehicles can reduce their gco2/km much lower.
Thank You www.ucc.ie/energypolicy