Highway Loss Data Institute Bulletin Vol. 34, No. 20 : September 2017 Honda Accord theft losses an update Executive Summary Thefts of tires and rims have become a significant problem for some vehicles. Earlier studies by the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) found high theft losses for large Chevrolet/GMC pickups and the Honda Fit Sport due to wheel theft. An increase in thefts was also seen for the 2013 15 Honda Accord corresponding to the introduction of the Sport model with 18-inch wheels. For the 2016 Honda Accord four-door, 19-inch alloy wheels were added on the Sport and Touring models. A Sport Special Edition model with 19-inch wheels was new for 2017. This study examines the theft losses of 2016 and 2017 Honda Accord four-door models and how their results vary by wheel size. The chart below shows the estimated difference in theft claim frequency for 2016 Honda Accord four-door models compared with the LX model. The LX had 16-inch wheels, the EX, EX-L, and EX-L V6 models had 17-inch wheels, and the Sport and Touring models had 19- inch wheels. Claim frequencies for the EX, EX-L, and EX-L V6 models were not statistically different at the 0.05 level from the LX model. Frequencies for the Sport model were more than 7 times higher than the LX, and frequencies for the Touring model were almost 4 times higher. Both were statistically significant at the 0.05 level. 1,000% Estimated difference in theft claim frequency compared to LX model with 16 wheels, 2016 Honda Accord four-door 800% 17" wheels 19" wheels 600% 400% 200% 0% -200% EX EX-L EX-L V6 Sport Touring
Introduction As vehicles have added more sophisticated antitheft devices and become more difficult to steal, thieves have turned to stealing vehicle components (National Insurance Crime Bureau, 2015). Many vehicle parts, including wheels, have no identification markings, making them hard to trace and more marketable. Earlier HLDI studies have found tire and rim theft to be a problem for large Chevrolet/GMC pickups and the Honda Fit Sport (HLDI, 2015, 2016). An increase in thefts was also seen for the 2013 15 Honda Accord corresponding to the introduction of the Sport model with 18-inch wheels (HLDI, 2016). Claim frequency was more than 5 times higher for the Sport model than for all other models. Claim severity was 20 percent lower for the Sport model. Overall losses were more than 4 times higher for the Sport model. For 2016 models, 19-inch alloy wheels were added on the Sport and Touring models. A Sport Special Edition model with 19-inch wheels was new for 2017. This study examines the theft losses of 2016 and 2017 Honda Accord fourdoor models and how their results vary by wheel size. Methods Vehicle theft losses are paid under comprehensive coverage. The results in this study are based on theft losses and comprehensive coverage for 2011 17 Honda Accord four-door models from their introduction through April 2017. During this period, there were 1,470 theft claims in the HLDI database for the 2016 Accord four-door and 415 claims for the 2017 Accord four-door. Results were split at the model level using the first eight digits of the vehicle identification number (VIN). The four-door Accord Sport model had 18-inch alloy wheels for 2013 15 models and 19-inch alloy wheels for 2016 17 models. The Touring model had 19-inch alloy wheels for 2016 17 models. The Sport Special Edition had 19-inch alloy wheels for 2017 models. All other models had 16- or 17-inch wheels. A regression analysis was run to quantify the effect of wheel size on Honda Accord thefts while controlling for vehicle and rated driver factors. The covariates were model, rated driver age, gender, marital status, risk, comprehensive deductible, vehicle density (vehicles per square mile), and state group. Rated driver age was grouped into seven categories (14 24, 25 29, 30 39, 40 49, 50 59, 60 69, and 70 99), comprehensive deductible was grouped into three categories ($0 $300, $301 $600, and >$600), and vehicle density was grouped into three categories (0 99, 100 499, and 500 vehicles per square mile). Many states were grouped with nearby states due to low claim counts. The model used a Poisson distribution and a logarithmic link function. To ease in interpretation, the parameter estimates were expressed as estimated change. This was calculated by taking the exponent of the parameter estimate and then subtracting one. For example, using the parameter estimate for the EX model from Appendix A (0.2830), we get e 0.2830-1=0.33. This is interprested as claim frequencies for the EX model vehicles are estimated to be 33 percent higher than for the LX model vehicles (base group). HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 2
Results Figure 1 shows the observed theft losses of the Honda Accord four-door by model year. The results are presented in relative terms where 100 is equal to all passenger vehicles except the Honda Accord two-door, four-door, and hybrid models. Relative claim frequency increased from 97 to 165 when the Sport model with 18-inch wheels was added in 2013. A much larger increase in frequency occurred between 2015 models (183) and 2016 models (506) when 19-inch wheels were added to the Sport and Touring models. Exposure and claim counts for 2017 models are still somewhat low, but early results indicate even higher theft frequency (766) for 2017 Accords. Average claim severity dropped from 94 for 2012 models to 68 for 2013 models. Severities remained fairly flat for 2013 to 2017 models. Overall losses followed a similar pattern as claim frequencies with a small increase for 2013 models and much larger increases for 2016 and 2017 models. 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Figure 1: Relative theft losses of Honda Accord four-door by model year 2011 (16 17" wheels all models) 2012 (16 17" wheels all models) 2013 (Sport model with 18" wheels added) 2014 (18" wheels on Sport model) 2015 (18" wheels on Sport model) 2016 (19" wheels new for Sport and Touring models) 2017 (19" wheels on Sport, Sport Special Edition, & Touring models) 100 = all passenger vehicles except Honda Accord 2dr, 4dr, hybrid 0 claim frequency claim severity overall losses Figure 2 shows the estimated difference in theft claim frequency for 2016 Honda Accord four-door models compared with the LX model. Claim frequencies for the EX, EX-L, and EX-L V6 models were not statistically different at the 0.05 level from the LX model. Frequencies for the Sport model were more than 7 times higher than the LX, and frequencies for the Touring model were almost 4 times higher. Appendix A contains a table listing the results for all variables in the Poisson regression. 1,000% Figure 2: Estimated difference in theft claim frequency compared to LX model with 16 wheels, 2016 Honda Accord four-door 800% 17" wheels 19" wheels 600% 400% 200% 0% -200% EX EX-L EX-L V6 Sport Touring HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 3
Figure 3 shows the observed theft losses of the 2016 Honda Accord four-door by model. The results are presented in relative terms where 100 equals all 2016 passenger vehicles except the Honda Accord two-door and four-door. Relative claim frequencies for the models with 16-inch and 17-inch wheels ranged from 114 to 208. Frequencies for the Sport and Touring models with 19-inch wheels were over 12 times higher and over 6 times higher, respectively, than the all other passenger vehicles result. Claim severities were below 100 for all models, with the Touring and Sport having slightly lower average claim sizes. Overall losses had a similar pattern as claim frequency. Results for the Sport model were more than 7 times higher than the all other vehicle results, and results for the Touring model were more than 3.5 times higher. 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 Figure 3: Relative theft losses of 2016 Honda Accord four-door by model LX - 16" wheels EX - 17" wheels EX-L - 17" wheels EX-L V6-17" wheels Sport - 19" wheels Touring - 19" wheels 600 400 200 100 = all 2016 passenger vehicles except Honda Accord 2dr and 4dr 0 claim frequency claim severity overall losses Figure 4 shows the observed theft losses of the 2017 Honda Accord four-door by model. The results are presented in relative terms where 100 equals all 2017 passenger vehicles except the Honda Accord two-door, four-door, and hybrid. To increase sample size, exposure and claims for the LX, EX, EX-L, and EX-L V6 models were combined. No results are shown for the Touring model due to low exposure. As with the 2016 results, the models with 19-inch wheels had significantly higher claim frequencies and overall losses than the models with 16-inch and 17-inch wheels. For the Sport and Sport Special Edition, the frequency of claims was over 15 times higher than all other passenger vehicles, and overall losses were about 10 times higher. The results are based on exposure and claims through April 2017. This date is still early for 2017 models, as many have not yet been sold. These early findings may change as more data are added. 1,800 1,600 1,400 Figure 4: Relative theft losses of 2017 Honda Accord four-door by model LX, EX, EX-L, EX-L V6-16 17" wheels Sport - 19" wheels Sport Special Edition - 19" wheels 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 100 = all 2017 passenger vehicles except Honda Accord 2dr, 4dr, and hybrid 0 claim frequency claim severity overall losses HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 4
Figure 5 shows the theft claim size distribution for the Honda Accord four-door 2013 15 models with 16-inch and 17- inch wheels, 2013 15 models with 18-inch wheels, 2016 models with 19-inch wheels, and 2017 models with 19-inch wheels. The claim size includes the deductible amount. For 2013 15 models with 16-inch and 17-inch wheels, claims were concentrated below $2,000 and above $15,000. Claims for the 2013 15 models with 18-inch wheels peaked at $3,001 to $4,000 (22 percent), about the cost of replacing four tires and rims. Claims for 2016 and 2017 models with 19-inch wheels peaked at $4,001 to $5,000 (26 percent and 25 percent, respectively). The higher claim amounts for 2016 and 2017 models may be due to the higher costs of tires for 19-inch versus 18-inch wheels. 30% 25% 20% Figure 5: Honda Accord four-door theft claim size distribution 2013 15 models with 16 17" wheels 2013 15 models with 18" wheels 2016 models with 19" wheels 2017 models with 19" wheels 15% 10% 5% 0% $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 >$15,000 damage amount (loss plus deductible) Figure 6 shows the state distribution of theft claims for the Honda Accord four-door 2013 15 Sport model, 2016 Sport and Touring models, and 2017 Sport, Sport Special Edition, and Touring models. New York had the highest percentage of claims for each group with 37 percent of 2013 15 Sport model claims, 24 percent of 2016 Sport and Touring model claims, and 31 percent of 2017 Sport, Sport Special Edition, and Touring model claims. Florida had the second highest percentage of claims for the 2013 15 models (10 percent) and 2016 models (16 percent). California had the second highest percentage for 2017 models at 20 percent. 40% 35% 30% Figure 6: State distribution of theft claims by model year 2013 15 Sport model 2016 Sport & Touring models 2017 Sport, Sport Special Edition, & Touring models 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% CA CT FL MD MA NJ NY PA other states HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 5
Conclusion Theft claim frequencies for the Honda Accord four-door have dramatically increased in recent model years. The first increase was seen for 2013 models when the Sport model with 18-inch wheels was introduced. A much larger increase occurred for 2016 models when 19-inch wheels were added to the Sport and Touring models. Early results for 2017 models indicate that theft claim frequency continues to be high for the Sport and Touring models. The rise in claim frequency is largely attributed to thefts of 18-inch and 19-inch wheels on select models. Theft claim frequency for models with 16-inch and 17-inch wheels remains low. In the 2016 HLDI study on Honda Accord theft losses, New York accounted for 47 percent of theft claims for the 2013 15 Sport model. The percentage of claims from New York was still high in the current study at 37 percent for 2013 15 Sport models and 24 percent for 2016 Sport and Touring models. Claim size amounts, including the deductible, were concentrated in the $3,001 $4,000 range for 2013 15 Sport models in both the current and 2016 studies. For 2016 Sport and Touring models, claim size peaked slightly higher in the $4,001 $5,000 range. References Highway Loss Data Institute. 2015. Theft losses for Honda Fit vehicles. HLDI Bulletin 32(32). Arlington, VA. Highway Loss Data Institute. 2016. Pickup thefts in Texas. HLDI Bulletin 33(5). Arlington, VA. Highway Loss Data Institute. 2016. Honda Accord theft losses. HLDI Bulletin 33(16). Arlington, VA. National Insurance Crime Bureau, 2015. Wheels and tires disappear in the motor city. NICB.org, June 18. Available: https://www.nicb.org/newsroom/news-releases/wheels-and-tires-disappear-in-the-motor-city. Appendix Parameter Appendix A: Poisson regression results for 2016 Honda Accord theft claim frequency Degrees of freedom Estimate Effect Standard error Wald 95% confidence limits Chi-square P-value Intercept 1-13.2888 0.2271-13.7338-12.8437 3424.97 <.0001 Model LX 0 0 0 0 0 EX 1 0.2830 33% 0.1550-0.0207 0.5867 3.34 0.0678 EX-L 1 0.1526 16% 0.1478-0.1370 0.4422 1.07 0.3017 EX-L V6 1-0.1163-11% 0.2187-0.5449 0.3124 0.28 0.5950 Sport 1 2.0919 710% 0.1021 1.8917 2.2920 419.55 <.0001 Touring 1 1.5839 387% 0.1448 1.3001 1.8677 119.65 <.0001 Rated driver age 14 24 1 0.0084 1% 0.1092-0.2056 0.2225 0.01 0.9383 25 29 1 0.2681 31% 0.0891 0.0934 0.4428 9.05 0.0026 30 39 1 0.0847 9% 0.0799-0.0720 0.2413 1.12 0.2895 40 49 0 0 0 0 0 50 59 1-0.3010-26% 0.0991-0.4953-0.1067 9.22 0.0024 60 69 1-0.2533-22% 0.1166-0.4819-0.0248 4.72 0.0298 70 99 1-0.6121-46% 0.1613-0.9282-0.2960 14.41 0.0001 Gender Female 0 0 0 0 0 Male 1 0.0858 9% 0.0555-0.0229 0.1945 2.39 0.1219 Unknown 1-1.1610-69% 0.6145-2.3654 0.0434 3.57 0.0588 HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 6
Parameter Appendix A: Poisson regression results for 2016 Honda Accord theft claim frequency Degrees of freedom Estimate Effect Standard error Marital status Married 0 0 0 0 0 Wald 95% confidence limits Chi-square P-value Single 1 0.2927 34% 0.0599 0.1753 0.4100 23.90 <.0001 Unknown 1 0.3579 43% 0.3582-0.3441 1.0600 1.00 0.3177 Assigned Risk Nonstandard 1-0.0530-5% 0.1205-0.2892 0.1832 0.19 0.6604 Comprehensive Deductible Vehicle Density Standard 0 0 0 0 0 $0 $300 1-0.1695-16% 0.0904-0.3467 0.0078 3.51 0.0609 $301 $600 1-0.0333-3% 0.0708-0.1722 0.1055 0.22 0.6379 $601+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 vehicles per square mile 1-0.9296-61% 0.1578-1.2389-0.6202 34.69 <.0001 100 499 1-1.4005-75% 0.1092-1.6146-1.1865 164.44 <.0001 500+ 0 0 0 0 0 State Alabama-Mississippi 1 0.8740 140% 0.3867 0.1161 1.6320 5.11 0.0238 Alaska-Hawaii 1-0.6334-47% 1.0173-2.6272 1.3605 0.39 0.5335 Arizona-New Mexico 1 0.7053 102% 0.4300-0.1375 1.5480 2.69 0.1010 California-Nevada 1 0.6773 97% 0.2011 0.2830 1.0715 11.34 0.0008 Colorado-Utah 1 0.0634 7% 0.5336-0.9823 1.1092 0.01 0.9053 Florida 1 1.7255 462% 0.1975 1.3384 2.1126 76.33 <.0001 Georgia 1 1.5839 387% 0.2252 1.1425 2.0254 49.45 <.0001 Illinois 1 1.5840 387% 0.2281 1.1370 2.0311 48.23 <.0001 Kansas-Missouri- Oklahoma-Arkansas 1-0.5879-44% 0.5338-1.6341 0.4584 1.21 0.2708 Kentucky-Tennessee-West Virginia 1-1.1315-68% 0.7315-2.5652 0.3021 2.39 0.1219 Louisiana 1 0.6486 91% 0.3446-0.0267 1.3240 3.54 0.0598 Maine-New Hampshire- Vermont 1 1.0853 196% 0.7365-0.3582 2.5287 2.17 0.1406 Maryland-Virginia-Delaware- District of Columbia 1 2.1122 727% 0.1988 1.7226 2.5018 112.9 <.0001 Massachusetts-Connecticut- Rhode Island 1 2.1832 787% 0.2313 1.7299 2.6366 89.08 <.0001 Michigan-Ohio-Indiana 1-0.5329-41% 0.3819-1.2815 0.2157 1.95 0.1629 Minnesota 1-0.4744-38% 0.7312-1.9076 0.9587 0.42 0.5164 Montana-Wyoming-Idaho- North Dakota-South Dakota- 1 0.2108 23% 0.6084-0.9816 1.4032 0.12 0.7290 Nebraska-Iowa New Jersey 1 1.0674 191% 0.2186 0.6390 1.4959 23.85 <.0001 New York 1 2.1941 797% 0.1942 1.8135 2.5747 127.64 <.0001 North Carolina-South Carolina 1 0.2230 25% 0.3126-0.3898 0.8357 0.51 0.4757 Pennsylvania 1 1.7305 464% 0.2287 1.2822 2.1787 57.25 <.0001 Texas 0 0 0 0 0 Washington-Oregon 1-0.0569-6% 0.4216-0.8833 0.7695 0.02 0.8926 Wisconsin 1 1.4421 323% 0.3673 0.7222 2.1620 15.42 <.0001 HLDI Bulletin Vol 34, No. 20 : September 2017 7
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