I-40 Douglas Boulevard Interchange Reconstruction and Related Widening Oklahoma County, OKLAHOMA INFRA Grant Application Benefit-Cost Analysis Technical Memo November 2017 Submitted by: Oklahoma Department of Transportation Contact: Laura Chaney, Planning and Performance Branch Manager, (405) 521-2705 e-mail: LChaney@odot.org
THIS PAGE LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK Supporting information can be found at: https://www.ok.gov/odot/progress_and_performance/ Federal_Grant_Awards/INFRA_Grants/Oklahoma_County_I-40_and_Douglas.html 1 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary... 1 1.1. Report Contents...2 2. Project Overview... 3 2.1. Challenges and How the Project will Address Them...4 3. General BCA Assumptions... 7 3.1. Real Dollar Valuations...7 3.2. Discounting to Present Value...7 3.3. Evaluation Period...7 3.4. Residual Value...8 3.5. Vehicle Occupancy...8 3.6. Build and No Build Assumptions...8 4. Project Costs... 9 5. Estimation of Project Benefits... 10 5.1. Traffic Volumes... 10 5.2. Travel Time Savings... 11 5.3. Truck Volumes... 12 5.4. Calculation of Value of Travel Time... 13 5.5. Safety... 15 5.6. Valuation of Safety Benefits Value of Reduced Crashes... 16 5.7. Lane-Blocking Accidents (Travel Time Impacts)... 18 5.8. Emissions Reductions Related to Reduced Accident-Related Delay... 21 6. Benefit-Cost Analysis Results... 22 6.1. Benefit-Cost Evaluation Measures... 22 6.2. Results... 23 6.3. Discussion of Quantifiable Benefits... 23 7. Sensitivity Analysis... 24 7.1. Independent Utility No Turnpike... 24 7.2. Alternate Safety Analysis... 24 7.3. Addition of Values for CO2... 25 7.4. Use of 3% Discount Rate... 25 7.5. Remove Growth Assumption from Value of Travel Time... 25 8. Non-Quantitative Costs and Benefits... 25 Appendix 1 No Build Maintenance Assumptions... 27 i Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
List of Tables Table 1: Project Benefits Matrix...1 Table 2: BCA Summary...2 Table 3: Project Capital Costs, in Undiscounted 2016 Dollars...9 Table 4: Daily Traffic Volumes for 2015 and 2045... 10 Table 5: Hourly Traffic Volumes without the Turnpike Traffic... 11 Table 6: Sample HCS Calculations of Weekday Travel Time Savings... 12 Table 7: Methodology for Interpolating Annual Travel Time Savings... 13 Table 8: Annual Travel Time Savings by Vehicle Type... 14 Table 9: Collision Statistics 2006-2016... 15 Table 10: Annual Average # of Crashes... 16 Table 11: Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) Used... 16 Table 12: Monetized Crash Value Assumptions (KABCO scale)... 17 Table 13: 2015 Calculated Value of Accidents (Without Turnpike Traffic)... 17 Table 14: Hours of Travel Delay for Peak-Hour Lane-Blocking Accidents, Selected Years... 19 Table 15: Value of Travel Time Savings for Accident-Related Delay... 20 Table 16: Vehicle Miles Traveled ( VMT ) Used for Calculating Emissions Savings from Avoided Accident- Related Delay, Selected Years... 21 Table 17: Tons of Emissions Saved from Avoided Accident-Related Delay, Selected Years... 22 Table 18: Value of Emissions Saved from Avoided Accident-Related Delay, Selected Years... 22 Table 19: Project Benefits Summary... 23 List of Figures Figure 1: I-40 Douglas Project Location...3 Figure 2: Shipping US Marine Corps F153 engines by truck from Tinker AFB after retrofit...4 Figure 3: Eastern Oklahoma County Turnpike Extension...4 Figure 4: Substandard Truck Clearance under I-40 on Anderson Road...5 Figure 5: Westbound morning traffic driving into Oklahoma City on I-40...6 Figure 6: Project Schedule...8 Figure 7: Total Vehicle Hours of Savings vs. Traffic Volumes... 13 Supporting Materials Supporting information can be found at: https://www.ok.gov/odot/progress_and_performance/ Federal_Grant_Awards/INFRA_Grants/Oklahoma_County_I-40_and_Douglas.html ii Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A benefit-cost analysis ( BCA ) was conducted for the I-40 Douglas Boulevard Interchange Reconstruction and Related Widening Project ( I-40 Douglas Project ), which was submitted by the Oklahoma Department of Transportation ( ODOT ) for a grant under the Nationally Significant Freight and Highway Projects (INFRA) program. The BCA was conducted in accordance with the benefit-cost methodology and values recommended by USDOT s July 2017 Benefit-Cost Analysis Guidance for TIGER and INFRA Applications. The period of analysis includes 43 years (2019-2061), which includes three years of construction, and 40 full years of benefits. The benefit-cost ratio was estimated at 1.11, with a net present value of $8.8 million. A summary Project benefit matrix is presented in Table 1 below. Table 1: Project Benefits Matrix Current Status/ Baseline & Problem to be Addressed Change to Baseline/ Alternatives Type of Impacts Population Affected by Impacts Economic Benefit Summary of Results (7% Discount Rate) Page Reference in BCA State of Good Repair, aging bridges and pavement, etc. Rehabilitate and/or replace roadway and bridges Reduced need for rehabilitation and maintenance Road users, taxpayers Avoided rehabilitation and maintenance costs $12.8 million Page 9 Aging bridges and pavement on four-lane facility Rehabilitate and/or replace roadway and bridges; add lanes. Long-term value of this improved infrastructure facility Road users, taxpayers Residual value of facility (after the final year of B-C Analysis) $2.6 million Page 8 Insufficient lane capacity, causing delay High crash rates caused by inadequate capacity, outdated interchanges, and poor geometrics Peak-hour vehicle crashes blocking lanes, causing severe delay Add one lane in each direction Add one lane in each direction, reconstruct interchanges, and improve the shoulders on this segment of I-40 Add lanes, increasing capacity for traffic driving around crashes in the roadway Reduced vehicle delays and improved travel reliability Crash rates reduced from reduced congestion and improved design Reduced delay Reduced emissions Road users, including local, regional, and interstate passenger and freight traffic Project area residents Auto and truck travel time savings Monetized value of crash reduction (reduced fatalities and injuries) Auto and truck travel time savings Value of lower emissions $8.5 million) $67.4 million $1.5 million $0.1 million Pages 10-14 Pages 15-18 Pages 18-21 Pages 21-22 1 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table 2 summarizes the year-by-year findings of the BCA in terms of hours of travel time saved, and the dollar values of all quantified benefits and costs. This table is also available in the BCA excel file under the SUMMARY tab. Table 2: BCA Summary Year Costs (No Build Costs (Build) Travel Time Savings (Annual, hours) Travel Time Savings (Accidentrelated) TOTAL hours of Travel Time Savings Value of Travel Time Savings Emissions Safety Benefits NET Benefits (Benefits - Costs) Discounted at 7% 2017 $0 $0 - $0 $0 $0 2018 $0 $0 - $0 $0 $0 2019 $0 $36,937,879 - $0 ($36,937,879) ($30,152,312) 2020 $6,925,387 $51,354,545 - $0 ($44,429,158) ($33,894,792) 2021 $0 $18,807,576 4,844.3 811.7 5,656 $99,294 $924 $2,038,741 ($16,668,616) ($11,884,493) 2022 $0 $0 19,377.3 3,246.9 22,624 $401,944 $4,517 $6,012,239 $6,418,701 $4,277,051 2023 $0 $0 21,109.8 3,553.4 24,663 $443,428 $6,689 $6,092,302 $6,542,418 $4,074,289 2024 $0 $0 22,842.2 3,860.0 26,702 $485,849 $7,245 $6,173,430 $6,666,524 $3,879,977 2025 $1,662,978 $0 24,574.7 4,166.5 28,741 $529,224 $7,645 $6,255,639 $8,455,486 $4,599,224 2026 $0 $0 26,307.2 4,473.1 30,780 $573,571 $7,880 $6,338,942 $6,920,393 $3,517,977 2027 $0 $0 28,039.6 4,779.7 32,819 $618,906 $7,996 $6,423,355 $7,050,256 $3,349,526 2028 $0 $0 29,772.1 5,086.2 34,858 $665,246 $7,968 $6,508,892 $7,182,106 $3,188,941 2029 $0 $0 31,504.5 5,392.8 36,897 $712,609 $7,800 $6,595,568 $7,315,977 $3,035,870 2030 $5,421,812 $0 33,237.0 5,699.4 38,936 $761,013 $7,514 $6,683,398 $12,873,737 $4,992,657 2031 $0 $0 34,969.5 6,005.9 40,975 $810,476 $7,135 $6,772,397 $7,590,009 $2,750,969 2032 $0 $0 36,701.9 6,312.5 43,014 $861,017 $6,722 $6,862,582 $7,730,322 $2,618,527 2033 $0 $0 38,434.4 6,619.0 45,053 $912,654 $6,299 $6,953,968 $7,872,921 $2,492,365 2034 $0 $0 40,166.8 6,925.6 47,092 $965,406 $5,868 $7,046,571 $8,017,845 $2,372,191 2035 $4,911,332 $0 43,159.3 7,455.1 50,614 $1,050,058 $5,646 $7,140,407 $13,107,443 $3,624,317 2036 $0 $0 46,151.7 7,984.6 54,136 $1,136,603 $5,425 $7,235,492 $8,377,521 $2,164,911 2037 $0 $0 49,144.1 8,514.1 57,658 $1,225,074 $5,248 $7,331,844 $8,562,166 $2,067,875 2038 $0 $0 52,136.6 9,043.7 61,180 $1,315,504 $5,111 $7,429,479 $8,750,094 $1,975,011 2039 $0 $0 55,129.0 9,573.2 64,702 $1,407,928 $4,992 $7,528,414 $8,941,334 $1,886,146 2040 $4,472,192 $0 58,121.4 10,102.7 68,224 $1,502,381 $4,834 $7,628,666 $13,608,073 $2,682,786 2041 $0 $5,000,000 61,113.9 10,632.2 71,746 $1,598,898 $4,675 $7,730,254 $4,333,826 $798,504 2042 $0 $0 64,106.3 11,161.7 75,268 $1,697,515 $4,503 $7,833,194 $9,535,211 $1,641,920 2043 $0 $0 67,098.7 11,691.2 78,790 $1,798,268 $4,316 $7,937,505 $9,740,089 $1,567,476 2044 $0 $0 70,091.1 12,220.8 82,312 $1,901,196 $4,023 $8,043,205 $9,948,424 $1,496,265 2045 $4,472,192 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,006,334 $3,683 $8,150,312 $14,632,522 $2,056,788 2046 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,030,410 $3,194 $8,150,312 $10,183,917 $1,337,832 2047 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,054,775 $2,764 $8,150,312 $10,207,852 $1,253,249 2048 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,079,432 $2,535 $8,150,312 $10,232,280 $1,174,063 2049 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,104,386 $2,340 $8,150,312 $10,257,038 $1,099,910 2050 $4,372,192 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,129,638 $2,139 $8,150,312 $14,654,282 $1,468,643 2051 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,155,194 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,307,646 $965,444 2052 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,181,056 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,333,508 $904,548 2053 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,207,229 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,359,681 $847,513 2054 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,233,716 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,386,167 $794,094 2055 $13,327,406 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,260,520 $2,139 $8,150,312 $23,740,378 $1,696,369 2056 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,287,646 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,440,098 $697,194 2057 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,315,098 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,467,550 $653,296 2058 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,342,879 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,495,331 $612,178 2059 $0 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,370,994 $2,139 $8,150,312 $10,523,446 $573,661 2060 $4,372,192 $0 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,399,446 $2,139 $8,150,312 $14,924,090 $760,329 2061 $0 $5,000,000 73,083.6 12,750.3 85,834 $2,428,239 $2,139 $8,150,312 $5,580,691 $265,716 TOTAL $49,937,683 $117,100,000 2,200,554.1 382,066.8 2,582,621.0 $61,061,054 $181,167 $301,151,793 $295,231,697 $6,284,008 This table does not include residual value, so Totals are less than the Project s final NPV. 1.1. Report Contents The sections below provide an overview of the Project, followed by detailed discussion of the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the BCA. Following these is a list of Project benefits that were not quantified in the BCA. Specifically: Section 2 provides an overview of the Project 2 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Section 3 describes general BCA assumptions Section 4 describes the cost assumptions for the Project and the No Build Section 5 documents the derivation and valuation of the travel time savings, emissions, and safety benefits Section 6 summarizes the results of the benefit-cost analysis Section 7 provides results of sensitivity analyses run on the BCA Section 8 lists non-quantified Project benefits that were not included in the BCA calculations To facilitate US DOT review, the original BCA analysis file (in Excel) can be downloaded from the Application website: https://www.ok.gov/odot/progress_and_performance/federal_grant_awards/ FASTLANE_Grants.htmlhttps://www.ok.gov/odot/Progress_and_Performance/Federal_Grant_Awards/I NFRA_Grants/Oklahoma_County_I-40_and_Douglas.html. 2. PROJECT OVERVIEW The I-40 Douglas Boulevard Interchange Reconstruction and Related Widening Project ( I-40 Douglas Project ) in southeastern Oklahoma County takes 5.5 miles of outdated Interstate, and brings it up to modern standards. The Project addresses the long deferred need to reconstruct the increasingly problematic I-40 Douglas Interchange, widens the Interstate from four through-lanes to six, and updates bridges and other infrastructure elements along the highway. Figure 1 illustrates the Project location within the surrounding area. Figure 1: I-40 Douglas Project Location This segment of I-40 is a critical piece of the National Highway System and the National Highway Freight 3 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Network, as well as recently being designated an FHWA Alternative Fuels Corridor for CNG. It carries over 44,000 vehicles daily, including high volumes of commuter traffic. The Douglas Avenue interchange on the west edge of the Project provides access to Tinker Airforce Base ( Tinker ), which is the largest single-site employer in the state of Oklahoma, at 26,000 employees, and anchors a number of aircraftrelated businesses in the area. Tinker provides maintenance and repair for military aircraft, serving 92 US Air Force bases, and 46 foreign nations. While many aircraft are flown into Tinker for maintenance, the base ships and receives the bulk of its goods and supplies via truck (Figure 2). Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum Figure 2: Shipping US Marine Corps F153 engines by truck from Tinker AFB after retrofit I-40 carries more trucks than any other interstate in Oklahoma, almost 15,000 each day. This includes approximately 6,640 per day through the Project segment. Maintaining interstate roadways and bridges to support heavy truck traffic without requiring trucks to reroute due to height restrictions or congestion is vital to the efficiency of the national transportation system. In addition to the existing need to improve this segment of I-40, another reason the Project is needed soon is Oklahoma Turnpike Authority s upcoming Project, the Eastern Oklahoma County ( EOC ) Turnpike Extension (Figure 3), which will connect I-44 to I-40 with a bypass east of Oklahoma City. This new toll road is scheduled to open to traffic by 2020, bringing thousands of additional vehicles per day onto I-40 headed east to the Project. 2.1. Challenges and How the Project will Address Them Figure 3: Eastern Oklahoma County Turnpike Extension The current state of the highway is inadequate to the task of providing high quality transportation for the 44,000 cars and trucks that traverse it each day. By 2045, daily traffic is expected to exceed 66,000, adding in background regional 4 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
growth, with the new traffic from the Turnpike extension. Without improvement, severe congestion is expected to occur along multiple segments of I-40, as well as at ramps during peak hours. Reliability is a major problem along this corridor. High levels of accidents cause multiple-lane shutdowns, or ramp closures, often at late night hours. During peak hours, local officials estimate that accidents close at least one lane of I-40 about once every three weeks. The I-40 Douglas Project is designed to address the following concerns, described in more detail below: State of good repair and geometric issues Safety, which impacts reliability Inadequate capacity, leading to congestion and delay State of Good Repair and Geometric Issues I-40 in the Project area, including the current I-40/Douglas Boulevard Interchange, was built in 1963 and is four years beyond its design life. The Douglas Boulevard Interchange is an outdated and dangerous design for the level of traffic it now carries, and its bridge structure is approaching structural deficiency and needs to be replaced. Other bridges on the Project are too narrow, and most have minimal clearance for semi-trucks to pass safely underneath. For example, the bridges over Anderson Road require repairs approximately every five years due to damage from trucks with tall loads hitting the bridge as they pass underneath. Figure 4: Substandard Truck Clearance under I-40 on Anderson Road In addition, the inside shoulders are only paved for a four-foot width, and the acceleration and deceleration lanes near the Anderson Road Interchange are inadequate for the current levels of traffic, making it difficult for traffic to safely enter and exit I-40. The Project addresses these concerns by widening the inside shoulders, replacing the Douglas Interchange, correcting the vertical clearances at Westminster Road, Post Road, and the I-40 bridges over Anderson Road, and by lengthening the acceleration and deceleration lanes at the Anderson Road Interchange. Safety Collision rates on the existing highway are twice the state average for a similar Interstate facility, averaging 2.4 collisions per week, with 11 fatalities in the past 10 years. The interchanges at Douglas and Anderson have an average of 20 collisions per year. This is in part due to inadequate acceleration and deceleration lane lengths at the Anderson Road Interchange, and tight ramp curves and the need 5 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
for merge lanes at the Douglas Boulevard Interchange, as well as congestion throughout the Project caused by inadequate capacity. The Project lengthens the acceleration and deceleration lanes to make entering and exiting I-40 safer, replaces the Douglas Boulevard Interchange with a new design, and adds one through lane in each direction on I-40 to reduce congestion-related accidents. Capacity, Congestion, and Delay Congestion and delay are a problem today, and are projected to worsen with traffic expected to grow by 1.3% annually through 2045 due to increasing development in eastern Oklahoma County and throughout the region. Growth in national freight traffic along I-40 is also a contributing factor. On top of this growth, the EOC Turnpike project is expected to add over 2,000 vehicles per day to this segment of I-40 when it opens in 2020, and 3,400 vehicles by 2045. Figure 5: Westbound morning traffic driving into Oklahoma City on I-40 Inadequate capacity causes two key problems: routine delays during peak hours, and severe delay when a lane-blocking accident occurs during peak travel hours. The engineering analysis, available on the Project Application website, shows that under normal peak hour traffic, the I-40 corridor has segments that operate at Level of Service ( LOS ) grade D (i.e., speeds below posted speed limit) or worse at peak hour today. Without improvement, LOS F conditions (i.e., traffic flow is irregular and speeds vary substantially because of congestion) will result along multiple segments, and at some ramps, during peak hours. The accident-related delay occurs approximately once every three weeks, causing hours of delay an unacceptable situation for a major freight thoroughfare. This severe congestion results in additional vehicle emissions, and occasionally causes secondary accidents. With the Project s additional through-lanes, this segment should be able to handle the daily traffic load without LOS F conditions. The problems related to accident-caused delay will also be dramatically reduced, as a blocked lane would mean two lanes still open for traffic, and not just a single lane as is the case today. Additional information on the Project can be found in the application, and in the materials on the Project s Application website, Oklahoma I-40 INFRA. 6 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
3. GENERAL BCA ASSUMPTIONS A formal benefit-cost analysis was conducted for this Project using best practices for BCA in transportation planning, and reflecting current INFRA grant application guidance. This benefit-cost analysis was done using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that can be downloaded from Oklahoma I-40 INFRA. It is important to note that a formal BCA is not a comprehensive measure of a project s total economic impact, as many benefits cannot be readily quantified or occur under conditions of uncertainty. The BCA analysis is restricted to the following quantifiable benefits: 1. Savings in No Build maintenance and rehabilitation costs to the state of Oklahoma 2. Residual value of the Project after the final year of the benefit-cost analysis 3. Travel time savings along this 5.5-mile segment of I-40 at peak hours 4. Accident reduction along the 5.5-mile segment of I-40 5. Accident-related travel time savings resulting from having an additional lane available to carry traffic during lane-blocking accidents 6. Emissions reduction from having an additional lane available to carry traffic during laneblocking accidents Additional unquantified benefits are discussed in Section 8. 3.1. Real Dollar Valuations All dollar figures in this analysis are expressed in constant 2016 dollars. 3.2. Discounting to Present Value Federal guidance recommends that applicants discount future benefits and costs to 2016 present values to represent the opportunity cost of money. The real discount rate used for this analysis is 7.0%. An additional analysis was done using a 3% discount rate, as a sensitivity analysis. 3.3. Evaluation Period The analysis was performed over a 43-year period covering 2019 through 2061. Construction will take place during 2019-2021, with expected completion of the Douglas Interchange reconstruction expected in the first quarter of 2021, and other components open to traffic August 2021 or before. Benefits therefore begin in 2021, with the first full year of benefits 2022. The analysis uses 40 full years of benefits, ending the analysis in 2061. Carrying the analysis through 2061 also allows the BCA to account for long-term maintenance costs, as there is a substantial maintenance cost for the bridges that is projected to occur in 2055 (in the No Build case), and there is also a significant maintenance cost in the Build case in 2061. 7 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
3.4. Residual Value Residual value of the Project was counted for 80 years after Project construction (40 years beyond the benefits analysis). This was done to account for the fact that the benefits of the Project, such as additional lanes, paved shoulders, a reconstructed interchange, and bridges that meet vertical clearance standards, should last well past 2061. 3.5. Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle occupancy was assumed to be 1.06 for cars, based on 2000 Census data for Oklahoma City. This is likely a conservative estimate for the Project area, as it is located in proximity to large employers such as Boeing and Tinker, making carpooling much more likely. 3.6. Build and No Build Assumptions The BCA was developed by comparing a Build case to a No Build case. For the Build case, environmental clearance and right-of-way acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of 2017, with final engineering completed by early 2019. It is assumed that notice of an INFRA grant award is made in early 2018, allowing construction of the Project to start in early 2019, and be completed by the end of 2021, as shown in Figure 6. Under the No Build, it is assumed that no widening will take place during the analysis period. However, ongoing pavement maintenance, rehabilitation of aging bridges, and other needed repairs will be made as shown in Table 3. To be conservative, the traffic projections for the Build and the No Build scenarios were assumed to be the same. Figure 6: Project Schedule Scope Items Planning and Engineering NEPA, ROW, Utility Relocation Final Engineering and Design Funding Obligation Construction - Interchange Construction - Bridge Work Construction - Through Lanes 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
4. PROJECT COSTS Initial capital costs for the Build include: Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum Construction costs for the Douglas Interchange Construction costs for the Interstate widening, including the bridges over Anderson Road. Design, right-of-way, and environmental costs for the Build are not included, as these are underway, and were assumed to be pre-incurred costs for the purposes of the grant application. Maintenance and Rehabilitation Costs for the Build include: A single $5,000,000 expenditure in the 20th year after construction (2041), and again 20 years after that (in 2061). Because the Project will be concrete, maintenance costs are infrequent. Table 3: Project Capital Costs, in Undiscounted 2016 Dollars Selected years (years not shown are not expected to have maintenance and rehabilitation costs) No-Build BUILD Year Maint & Rehab Bridge Rehab Bridge Damage Costs for I-40 Costs repair TOTAL Capital Costs Maintenance TOTAL 2016 - - 2017 - - 2018 - - 2019-36,937,879 36,937,879 2020 6,825,387 100,000 6,925,387 51,354,545 51,354,545 2021-18,807,576 18,807,576 2022 - - 2023 - - 2024 - - 2025 1,562,978 100,000 1,662,978-2030 4,372,192 949,620 100,000 5,421,812-2035 4,372,192 439,140 100,000 4,911,332-2040 4,372,192 100,000 4,472,192-2041 - 5,000,000 5,000,000 2045 4,372,192 100,000 4,472,192-2050 4,372,192 100,000 4,472,192-2055 4,372,192 8,855,214 13,227,406-2060 4,372,192 4,372,192-2061 - 5,000,000 5,000,000 TOTAL 24,314,155 2,951,738 700,000 32,338,085 107,100,000 5,000,000 112,100,000 Source: Oklahoma Department of Transportation Maintenance and rehabilitation costs for the existing roadway in the No-Build are broken out into three types in Table 3: Scheduled maintenance work on bridges Roadway resurfacing Unscheduled repairs to low bridges that are damaged by trucks. Additional detail on the derivation of these costs is in Appendix 1. 9 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
5. ESTIMATION OF PROJECT BENEFITS Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum The BCA s travel time and safety benefits are calculated based on the following factors which are described in this section: 1. Traffic volumes which drive congestion, and thus determine future travel times 2. Current and projected crashes (total) which drive safety benefits 3. Current and projected crashes that block a lane of traffic during peak travel hours which determine accident-related delay and emissions, in combination with traffic volumes 4. Emissions factors for trucks and passenger cars 5.1. Traffic Volumes Traffic volumes were available for the years 2015 and 2045 without the Turnpike traffic that is expected from the planned Eastern Oklahoma County Turnpike Extension. A separate analysis determined that the Turnpike would have added 2,290 vehicles per day to the Project traffic in 2015 (if it existed then), and will add 3,390 vehicles per day in 2045. The resulting volumes are summarized in Table 4. The daily volumes for the years after 2045 are assumed to be stable (no growth, no decrease). Annual growth for the years between 2015 and 2045 is assumed to be 1.3% per year, based on the traffic in the largest portion of the Project (Douglas to Anderson), which is expected to grow 49% between 2015 and 2045. Table 4: Daily Traffic Volumes for 2015 and 2045 Segment Without Turnpike With Turnpike Traffic Added by Turnpike Percent Growth Added by Turnpike 2015 2045 2015 2045 2015 2045 2015 2045 West of Douglas 56,860 84,580 59,150 87,970 2,290 3,390 4.0% 4.0% Douglas <--> Anderson 42,514 63,240 44,804 66,630 2,290 3,390 5.4% 5.4% Anderson <--> 240 37,960 53,080 40,250 56,470 2,290 3,390 6.0% 6.4% Source: ODOT, 2016. Numbers in blue are interpolated. Hourly volumes for the two segments without Turnpike traffic are shown in Table 5. These were increased by 5.4% for calculations that required Turnpike traffic to be considered. 10 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table 5: Hourly Traffic Volumes without the Turnpike Traffic Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum East of Douglas <---> West of Anderson East of Anderson <---> West of I 240 Time 2015 2015 2045 2045 2015 2015 2045 2045 EB WB EB WB EB WB EB WB 00:00 345 426 492 600 297 366 417 510 01:00 186 237 264 336 162 207 225 285 02:00 75 39 108 54 66 33 93 48 03:00 72 57 102 81 63 51 87 6 04:00 72 117 102 165 63 102 87 141 05:00 105 348 147 492 90 300 126 417 06:00 510 1,065 726 1,503 441 921 612 1,275 07:00 981 2,112 1,398 2,982 849 1,827 1,182 2,529 08:00 1,119 3,036 1,644 4,251 936 2,409 1,425 3,240 09:00 852 1,365 1,215 1,926 738 1,179 1,026 1,635 10:00 804 1,047 1,149 1,476 696 903 969 1,254 11:00 834 1,119 1,188 1,581 720 969 1,005 1,341 12:00 1,002 1,233 1,428 1,740 867 1,065 1,206 1,476 13:00 1,065 969 1,518 1,368 921 837 1,284 1,161 14:00 1,173 990 1,674 1,398 1,164 855 1,413 1,185 15:00 1,662 1,383 2,370 1,950 1,437 1,194 2,001 1,656 16:00 3,141 1,071 4,491 1,926 2,580 984 3,579 1,710 17:00 2,346 1,584 3,345 2,235 2,031 1,368 2,826 1,896 18:00 1,983 1,248 2,826 1,764 1,716 1,080 2,388 1,497 19:00 1,173 900 1,671 1,269 1,014 777 1,413 1,077 20:00 900 621 1,284 876 780 537 1,056 744 21:00 753 516 1,074 729 651 447 909 618 22:00 558 321 1,095 456 483 279 672 387 23:00 426 327 606 465 369 285 513 393 Source: Garver (for ODOT) 2016. Numbers in bold indicate the highest peak traffic hours in each direction, for each year. 5.2. Travel Time Savings Travel time savings were determined by modeling the speeds using Highway Capacity Software ( HCS") from the Highway Capacity Manual. The peak-hour, peak-direction traffic volumes in 2045 for the two I-40 Project segments (the segments east and west of the Anderson Road interchange) are shown in Table 6 below with Turnpike traffic added in. Also shown are the HCS modelling results given these input traffic volumes and the road segment length. Additional HCS runs were made for the expected volumes during other hours of the day on each segment, for both 2015 and 2045. The resulting daily travel time savings were summed to obtain a daily travel time savings figure, and were then annualized assuming 255 days/year to account for lower volumes on weekends and holidays. 11 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table 6: Sample HCS Calculations of Weekday Travel Time Savings During highest peak hour in 2045 Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum West of Anderson Interchange East of Anderson Interchange Length of segment 3.7 miles 1.8 miles AM Peak Traffic (westbound) Volumes (from Table 5) 4,478 3,447 Modeled speed (Build) 67.2 69.9 Modeled speed (No Build) 49.3 63.4 Resulting travel time savings (hours, daily) 90 9 PM Peak Traffic (eastbound) Volumes (from Table 5) 4,731 3,809 Modeled speed (Build) 66.0 mph 69.3 mph Modeled speed (No Build) 44.6 mph 59.4 mph Resulting travel time savings (hours, daily) 127.3 16.5 Source: Highway Capacity Manual Software, 2016. Numbers in black indicate the inputs to the model. Numbers in blue are the output of the HCS model, or are calculated. A linear increase in traffic volumes (in this Project by 1.3% per year) did not produce a linear increase in travel delay (see Figure 7). As a result, interpolating years between 2015 and 2045 was accomplished, as explained in Table 7, by assuming that the half way point in benefit growth would be 2034 (instead of 2030, which would be the half way point if a straight-line methodology was used). This reduces benefits somewhat in the early years, and increases them somewhat in the later years, more in line with the graph. Resulting yearly travel time savings assumptions are shown in Table 8, and in the Source data of Travel Time Savings tab in the BCA spreadsheet available at Oklahoma I- 40 INFRA. 5.3. Truck Volumes Trucks make up 15% of daily volumes along this segment of I-40, and important freight corridor for Oklahoma and the nation. During peak hours, traffic is 13% trucks, with the remainder (87%) assumed to be passenger vehicles. The number of transit and inter-city buses was assumed to be negligible. For this BCA, the 13% figure was used in all calculations because all of the benefits from travel time savings were assumed to occur during peak hours. 12 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Figure 7: Total Vehicle Hours of Savings vs. Traffic Volumes 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: Highway Capacity Software runs. The x-axis shows hourly volumes. The Y-axis shows the vehicle-hours of travel time savings for the x-axis volumes assuming a 4-lane road (2 lanes in each direction). Table 7: Methodology for Interpolating Annual Travel Time Savings based on the calculated values for 2015 and 2045 Range of Years Rule 2015-2020 Zero benefits, the Project is not complete until late 2021. 2021 Assume ¼ of the 2022 benefits, because most of the Project opens by September 2021. 2022-2033 Ramp up benefits straight line between 2015 and the 2034 value (which is halfway between 2015 and 2045 TT savings) 2034 Assume halfway between 2015 and 2045 2035-2044 Ramp up benefits straight line between 2034 (halfway point) and the calculated 2045 levels 2045-2051 Use the HCS-calculated 2045 benefits (no growth after 2045) 5.4. Calculation of Value of Travel Time The value of time provided in the BCA Guidance was used, specifically $14.10/hour for passenger vehicles (All Purposes), and $27.20/hour for trucks. The BCA assumes a real growth in the value of time of 1.2% annually. The results are shown (undiscounted) in Table 8, and provide an estimated total benefit of $8.5 million using a 7% discount rate. 13 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table 8: Annual Travel Time Savings by Vehicle Type Year Annual Travel Annual Time Travel Time Savings for Savings Trucks (13%) Hourly Value of Truck Travel Value of Truck TT Savings Annual Auto TT Savings (87%) Annual Auto TT Savings (1.06 pers/veh) Hourly Value of Auto Travel Value of Auto TT Savings Value of Total Annual Travel Time Savings Units > (veh hours) (veh hours) $ 2016$ (veh hours) (person hours) $ 2016$ 2016$ 2021 4,844 630 $ 28.87 $ 18,182 4,215 4,467 $ 14.97 $ 66,862 $ 85,044 2022 19,377 2,519 $ 29.22 $ 73,602 16,858 17,870 $ 15.15 $ 270,658 $ 344,260 2023 21,110 2,744 $ 29.57 $ 81,145 18,366 19,467 $ 15.33 $ 298,395 $ 379,539 2024 22,842 2,969 $ 29.92 $ 88,858 19,873 21,065 $ 15.51 $ 326,758 $ 415,616 2025 24,575 3,195 $ 30.28 $ 96,744 21,380 22,663 $ 15.70 $ 355,760 $ 452,504 2026 26,307 3,420 $ 30.65 $ 104,807 22,887 24,260 $ 15.89 $ 385,410 $ 490,217 2027 28,040 3,645 $ 31.01 $ 113,050 24,394 25,858 $ 16.08 $ 415,721 $ 528,771 2028 29,772 3,870 $ 31.39 $ 121,475 25,902 27,456 $ 16.27 $ 446,704 $ 568,179 2029 31,505 4,096 $ 31.76 $ 130,086 27,409 29,053 $ 16.47 $ 478,370 $ 608,456 2030 33,237 4,321 $ 32.14 $ 138,887 28,916 30,651 $ 16.66 $ 510,732 $ 649,619 2031 34,969 4,546 $ 32.53 $ 147,880 30,423 32,249 $ 16.86 $ 543,802 $ 691,682 2032 36,702 4,771 $ 32.92 $ 157,069 31,931 33,847 $ 17.07 $ 577,592 $ 734,660 2033 38,434 4,996 $ 33.31 $ 166,457 33,438 35,444 $ 17.27 $ 612,115 $ 778,571 2034 40,167 5,222 $ 33.71 $ 176,047 34,945 37,042 $ 17.48 $ 647,383 $ 823,430 2035 43,159 5,611 $ 34.12 $ 191,433 37,549 39,801 $ 17.69 $ 703,960 $ 895,393 2036 46,152 6,000 $ 34.53 $ 207,162 40,152 42,561 $ 17.90 $ 761,802 $ 968,964 2037 49,144 6,389 $ 34.94 $ 223,241 42,755 45,321 $ 18.11 $ 820,931 $ 1,044,172 2038 52,137 6,778 $ 35.36 $ 239,677 45,359 48,080 $ 18.33 $ 881,369 $ 1,121,046 2039 55,129 7,167 $ 35.79 $ 256,474 47,962 50,840 $ 18.55 $ 943,140 $ 1,199,614 2040 58,121 7,556 $ 36.22 $ 273,641 50,566 53,600 $ 18.77 $ 1,006,266 $ 1,279,907 2041 61,114 7,945 $ 36.65 $ 291,182 53,169 56,359 $ 19.00 $ 1,070,771 $ 1,361,953 2042 64,106 8,334 $ 37.09 $ 309,105 55,772 59,119 $ 19.23 $ 1,136,680 $ 1,445,785 2043 67,099 8,723 $ 37.54 $ 327,416 58,376 61,878 $ 19.46 $ 1,204,016 $ 1,531,432 2044 70,091 9,112 $ 37.99 $ 346,122 60,979 64,638 $ 19.69 $ 1,272,805 $ 1,618,927 2045 73,084 9,501 $ 38.44 $ 365,230 63,583 67,398 $ 19.93 $ 1,343,071 $ 1,708,301 2046 73,084 9,501 $ 38.90 $ 369,613 63,583 67,398 $ 20.17 $ 1,359,188 $ 1,728,801 2047 73,084 9,501 $ 39.37 $ 374,049 63,583 67,398 $ 20.41 $ 1,375,498 $ 1,749,546 2048 73,084 9,501 $ 39.84 $ 378,537 63,583 67,398 $ 20.65 $ 1,392,004 $ 1,770,541 2049 73,084 9,501 $ 40.32 $ 383,080 63,583 67,398 $ 20.90 $ 1,408,708 $ 1,791,787 2050 73,084 9,501 $ 40.80 $ 387,677 63,583 67,398 $ 21.15 $ 1,425,612 $ 1,813,289 2051 73,084 9,501 $ 41.29 $ 392,329 63,583 67,398 $ 21.41 $ 1,442,720 $ 1,835,048 2052 73,084 9,501 $ 41.79 $ 397,037 63,583 67,398 $ 21.66 $ 1,460,032 $ 1,857,069 2053 73,084 9,501 $ 42.29 $ 401,801 63,583 67,398 $ 21.92 $ 1,477,553 $ 1,879,354 2054 73,084 9,501 $ 42.80 $ 406,623 63,583 67,398 $ 22.19 $ 1,495,283 $ 1,901,906 2055 73,084 9,501 $ 43.31 $ 411,502 63,583 67,398 $ 22.45 $ 1,513,227 $ 1,924,729 2056 73,084 9,501 $ 43.83 $ 416,440 63,583 67,398 $ 22.72 $ 1,531,385 $ 1,947,826 2057 73,084 9,501 $ 44.36 $ 421,437 63,583 67,398 $ 22.99 $ 1,549,762 $ 1,971,200 2058 73,084 9,501 $ 44.89 $ 426,495 63,583 67,398 $ 23.27 $ 1,568,359 $ 1,994,854 2059 73,084 9,501 $ 45.43 $ 431,613 63,583 67,398 $ 23.55 $ 1,587,180 $ 2,018,792 2060 73,084 9,501 $ 45.97 $ 436,792 63,583 67,398 $ 23.83 $ 1,606,226 $ 2,043,018 2061 73,084 9,501 $ 46.53 $ 442,033 63,583 67,398 $ 24.12 $ 1,625,500 $ 2,067,534 TOTAL 2,200,554 286,072 $ 11,122,028 1,914,482 2,029,351 $ 40,899,309 $ 52,021,337 14 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
5.5. Safety The crash rate along the Project segment of I-40 is more than twice the average rate for urban interstates in the state of Oklahoma, at 135.7 accidents per 100 million vehicle miles traveled compared to 63.6 crashes for the average urban interstate in Oklahoma (Table 9). Table 9: Collision Statistics 2006-2016 Crashes, I-40 between Douglas Boulevard and I-240 Fatal crashes 11 Total fatalities (persons) 12 Incapacitating injury crashes 57 Other injury crashes (incl. Possible injury) 306 Property damage only crashes 865 Total Crashes 1,239 Average annual crashes 123.9 Crash Rate (per 100 million vehicle miles) 135.7 Statewide Rates for similar roadways 63.6 Source: ODOT, 2016 Evidence points to high traffic volumes and congestion as likely factors in the high crash rate: The most commonly listed cause of collisions (41%) was No Improper Action" During peak hours, the most-commonly listed cause of accidents (25%) was following too closely (tied to congestion) In each year 2009-2015, the top accident type is rear end collisions Most accidents occur during normal conditions: dry pavement (77%), clear or cloudy weather (82%), and during daylight (68%) Crashes occur at the interchanges as well, due to tight curves (25 mph limit), a short merge section at the Douglas Interchange, and inadequate acceleration and deceleration lanes at Anderson Road. For the BCA, the accidents that take place at each intersection, and the accidents along the rest of the mainlanes of I-40, were analyzed separately. Historical crash data for each is presented in Table 10. 5.5.1. Project Changes to Reduce Accidents The Project would improve safety along the mainlanes by adding a lane in each direction to I-40, reducing congestion. In addition, the inside shoulders will be widened to ten feet paved vs just four paved feet today, allowing disabled vehicles to safely pull over away from moving traffic. At the Douglas Boulevard Interchange, the Project would replace the outdated interchange design with a modern Single-Point Urban Interchange ( SPUI ). The cloverleaf ramps would be replaced 15 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
with straight ramps, and the weave area would be removed, as the SPUI design separates these movements. At the Anderson Road Interchange, the Project would extend acceleration and deceleration lanes in both directions by more than 100 feet, and would widen the bridge over Anderson Road so that dedicated turn lanes could be added, reducing rear-end crashes. Table 10: Annual Average # of Crashes Accident Severity Mainlanes Douglas Interchange Area Anderson Interchange Area Fatal 1.1 0.17 0 Incapacitating Injury 5.7 0 0.3 Non-Incapacitating Injury 12.2 2.0 1.5 Possible Injury 18.4 2.8 1.17 PDO 86.5 8.8 3.6 TOTAL 123.9 13.8 6.6 Source: ODOT. Accidents for mainlanes are based on 2006-2016 data. Crashes for interchanges are from an analysis of 2009-2014 crashes. Table 11 shows the specific Crash Modification Factors (from the CMF Clearinghouse) which were applied to the average annual accidents in Table 10. Table 11: Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) Used CMF ID # Value Applied to Rule 8336 0.74 Mainlanes Adding one 12-foot lane. 3 star rating. Affects all accidents. 475 0.93 474 0.89 Anderson Interchange Anderson Interchange Extend deceleration lane by approx 100ft. 3 star rating. Affects all accidents. Extend acceleration lane by approx 98ft. 5 star rating. Affects all accidents. 478 0.55 Douglas Interchange Source: http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org/ Provide a straight ramp instead of a cloverleaf ramp. 4 star rating. Affects all accidents. 5.6. Valuation of Safety Benefits Value of Reduced Crashes The cost savings that arise from a reduction in the number of crashes include direct savings (e.g., reduced personal medical expenses, avoidance of lost wages, and lower individual insurance premiums), as well as significant avoided costs to society. 16 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Crash rates for this analysis were derived from historical accident records along this segment of I-40. These records use the KABCO scale of crash severity, and the cost valuation of these accidents (shown in Table 12 below is from the 2017 BCA Guidance document. Table 12: Monetized Crash Value Assumptions (KABCO scale) Crash Type (KABCO) Unit Value (in 2016 $) Fatal $9,600,000 Incapacitating Injury $459,100 Non-Incapacitating Injury $125,000 Possible Injury $63,900 PDO $3,200 Source: USDOT 2017 BCA Guidance Utilizing the historical annual average number of accidents from Table 10, and the value of each accident type in Table 12, the average annual value of crashes was calculated for the 2015 base year as shown in Table 13. Table 13: 2015 Calculated Value of Accidents (Without Turnpike Traffic) Accident Severity Mainlanes Douglas Interchange Area Anderson Interchange Area Fatal $10,560,000 $1,632,000 $0 Incapacitating Injury $2,616,870 $0 $137,730 Non- Incapacitating $1,525,000 $250,000 $187,500 Injury Possible Injury $1,175,760 $178,920 $74,763 PDO $276,800 $28,160 $11,520 Avg Annual Cost of Accidents $16,154,430 $2,089,080 $411,513 17 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
The totals in Table 13 were then grown by 1.3% annually, and increased by 5.4% to account for the Turnpike traffic 1. By 2045 the value of accidents (undiscounted) reaches $8.2 million, after which accidents and traffic levels are assumed to level off through to the end of the analysis in 2061. The resulting total value of avoided accidents, discounted at 7%, is $67.4 million. 5.7. Lane-Blocking Accidents (Travel Time Impacts) Reliability is a major problem for mobility along this corridor. High levels of accidents cause multiplelane shutdowns, or ramp closures, often at late night hours. The BCA focuses on accidents that close a single lane during peak hours, as these would have the largest impact on travel delay and emissions. Single-lane closures are a problem that could be solved by the Project, because having an additional lane in each direction would double the capacity of an accident-constrained roadway from one remaining lane to two. Interviews with local safety officials indicate that accidents that close down at least one lane of I-40 during peak hours occur approximately once every three weeks (17.3 times per year), and that closures typically last 30 minutes. 5.7.1. Estimation of Delay from Lane-Blocking Accidents The BCA quantifies the delay from these accidents based on the hourly traffic volumes in Table 5, increased by 5.4% to account for Turnpike traffic. The travel time savings for lane-blocking accidents was calculated by assuming that each lane of a road can handle 2,000 cars per hour. If a lane is closed for half an hour, it can only move 1,000 vehicles. So a road like I-40, with two through-lanes in each direction can process 4,000 vehicles per hour (per direction) with both lanes open and 3,000 vehicles per hour with one lane blocked for 30 minutes. Similarly, in the Build, a six-lane road could handle 6,000 vehicles per hour per direction with no accidents, and 5,000 vehicles per hour if one lane is blocked for half an hour. The calculated travel delay, as shown in the BCA spreadsheet, is derived from the differential between demand (expected traffic volumes for that hour) and the capacity (3,000 vehicles per hour in the No Build, and 5,000 vehicles per hour in the Build). At the highest peak hours, demand exceeds the No Build capacity (3,000) today, but even in 2045 does not reach as high as the Build s 5,000 vehicles per hour. Therefore there is no travel delay if one lane is blocked for 30 minutes in the Build condition. 1 Note that no values from prior to the completion of Project construction (in 2021) are counted as benefits. The base traffic year for which data was available is 2015, so growth is based off of this number, which is why figures for 2015 are shown throughout the BCA Excel file. 18 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
5.7.2. Methodology The analysis shown in the Accident-related Delay tab of the BCA excel file assumes that once every three weeks (17.3 times per year), an accident occurs at the peak hour and blocks a lane for 30 minutes. To calculate hours of delay in the No Build, peak hour traffic levels in both the 2015 and 2045 traffic levels were examined by calculating how many cars would be delayed in that hour. For example, if traffic at 8AM WB in 2045 is 4,732 (4,491 from Table 5, plus 5.4% for Turnpike traffic), then 3,000 vehicles could pass through, leaving 1,732 vehicles to pass through in the following hour. These have an assumed average of a half-hour of delay each (total=866 hours). These remaining 1,732 vehicles are then added to the volumes coming in during the 9AM hour, in this case, 3,524, yielding a total demand for 5,256 vehicles. Assuming the accident is cleared up after 30 minutes, the 4-lane I-40 is now back to handling 4,000 vehicles per hour, meaning that (5,256-4,000=) 1,256 vehicles are left behind with an assumed average delay of half an hour each (total=628 hours). This continues until the next hour s traffic is low enough to pass through without further delays. The analysis calculates the travel time savings in 2015 and 2045 for each peak hour (westbound WB AM and eastbound PM), and for both segments (east and west of the Anderson Road interchange). The analysis also assumes that accidents occur at each of these four time/location combinations at the same frequency so the resulting total delay from each segment and each direction is averaged to produce a single average travel time delay per incident. Table 14 shows the results calculated for 2015 and 2045 traffic volumes, and the resulting annual average. Table 14: Hours of Travel Delay for Peak-Hour Lane-Blocking Accidents, Selected Years Year AM WB Peak PM EB Peak AM WB Peak PM EB Peak Average Delay per Accident Annual Accident- Related Delay (x52/3) 2015 99 155 0 0 64 1,109 2045 739 1,611 207 385 736 12,750 Source: Highway Capacity Manual Software, 2016 The average delay per accident was calculated for in-between years using the methodology specified in Table 7. Because the Project won t be open to traffic until 2021, there are zero benefits prior to that year. Results are shown in Table 15 below. 19 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
Table 15: Value of Travel Time Savings for Accident-Related Delay Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum Year Annual Annual Travel Time Travel Time Savings for Savings Trucks (13%) Hourly Value of Truck Travel Value of Truck TT Savings Annual Auto TT Savings (87%) Annual Auto TT Savings (1.06 pers/veh) Hourly Value of Auto Travel Value of Auto TT Savings Value of Total Annual Travel Time Savings Units > (veh hours) (veh hours) $ 2016$ (veh hours) (person hours) $ 2016$ 2016$ 2021 812 106 $ 28.87 $ 3,047 706 749 $ 14.97 $ 11,203 $ 14,250 2022 3,247 422 $ 29.22 $ 12,333 2,825 2,994 $ 15.15 $ 45,351 $ 57,684 2023 3,553 462 $ 29.57 $ 13,659 3,091 3,277 $ 15.33 $ 50,229 $ 63,888 2024 3,860 502 $ 29.92 $ 15,016 3,358 3,560 $ 15.51 $ 55,217 $ 70,233 2025 4,167 542 $ 30.28 $ 16,403 3,625 3,842 $ 15.70 $ 60,318 $ 76,720 2026 4,473 582 $ 30.65 $ 17,821 3,892 4,125 $ 15.89 $ 65,533 $ 83,354 2027 4,780 621 $ 31.01 $ 19,271 4,158 4,408 $ 16.08 $ 70,864 $ 90,135 2028 5,086 661 $ 31.39 $ 20,753 4,425 4,691 $ 16.27 $ 76,314 $ 97,067 2029 5,393 701 $ 31.76 $ 22,268 4,692 4,973 $ 16.47 $ 81,885 $ 104,153 2030 5,699 741 $ 32.14 $ 23,816 4,958 5,256 $ 16.66 $ 87,578 $ 111,394 2031 6,006 781 $ 32.53 $ 25,398 5,225 5,539 $ 16.86 $ 93,397 $ 118,795 2032 6,312 821 $ 32.92 $ 27,015 5,492 5,821 $ 17.07 $ 99,342 $ 126,357 2033 6,619 860 $ 33.31 $ 28,667 5,759 6,104 $ 17.27 $ 105,416 $ 134,083 2034 6,926 900 $ 33.71 $ 30,354 6,025 6,387 $ 17.48 $ 111,622 $ 141,977 2035 7,455 969 $ 34.12 $ 33,067 6,486 6,875 $ 17.69 $ 121,599 $ 154,666 2036 7,985 1,038 $ 34.53 $ 35,841 6,947 7,363 $ 17.90 $ 131,798 $ 167,639 2037 8,514 1,107 $ 34.94 $ 38,676 7,407 7,852 $ 18.11 $ 142,225 $ 180,901 2038 9,044 1,176 $ 35.36 $ 41,575 7,868 8,340 $ 18.33 $ 152,883 $ 194,458 2039 9,573 1,245 $ 35.79 $ 44,537 8,329 8,828 $ 18.55 $ 163,777 $ 208,314 2040 10,103 1,313 $ 36.22 $ 47,564 8,789 9,317 $ 18.77 $ 174,910 $ 222,474 2041 10,632 1,382 $ 36.65 $ 50,658 9,250 9,805 $ 19.00 $ 186,286 $ 236,944 2042 11,162 1,451 $ 37.09 $ 53,819 9,711 10,293 $ 19.23 $ 197,911 $ 251,730 2043 11,691 1,520 $ 37.54 $ 57,049 10,171 10,782 $ 19.46 $ 209,787 $ 266,836 2044 12,221 1,589 $ 37.99 $ 60,348 10,632 11,270 $ 19.69 $ 221,920 $ 282,268 2045 12,750 1,658 $ 38.44 $ 63,719 11,093 11,758 $ 19.93 $ 234,314 $ 298,033 2046 12,750 1,658 $ 38.90 $ 64,483 11,093 11,758 $ 20.17 $ 237,126 $ 301,609 2047 12,750 1,658 $ 39.37 $ 65,257 11,093 11,758 $ 20.41 $ 239,972 $ 305,229 2048 12,750 1,658 $ 39.84 $ 66,040 11,093 11,758 $ 20.65 $ 242,851 $ 308,891 2049 12,750 1,658 $ 40.32 $ 66,833 11,093 11,758 $ 20.90 $ 245,765 $ 312,598 2050 12,750 1,658 $ 40.80 $ 67,635 11,093 11,758 $ 21.15 $ 248,715 $ 316,349 2051 12,750 1,658 $ 41.29 $ 68,446 11,093 11,758 $ 21.41 $ 251,699 $ 320,145 2052 12,750 1,658 $ 41.79 $ 69,268 11,093 11,758 $ 21.66 $ 254,720 $ 323,987 2053 12,750 1,658 $ 42.29 $ 70,099 11,093 11,758 $ 21.92 $ 257,776 $ 327,875 2054 12,750 1,658 $ 42.80 $ 70,940 11,093 11,758 $ 22.19 $ 260,870 $ 331,810 2055 12,750 1,658 $ 43.31 $ 71,791 11,093 11,758 $ 22.45 $ 264,000 $ 335,791 2056 12,750 1,658 $ 43.83 $ 72,653 11,093 11,758 $ 22.72 $ 267,168 $ 339,821 2057 12,750 1,658 $ 44.36 $ 73,525 11,093 11,758 $ 22.99 $ 270,374 $ 343,899 2058 12,750 1,658 $ 44.89 $ 74,407 11,093 11,758 $ 23.27 $ 273,618 $ 348,025 2059 12,750 1,658 $ 45.43 $ 75,300 11,093 11,758 $ 23.55 $ 276,902 $ 352,202 2060 12,750 1,658 $ 45.97 $ 76,203 11,093 11,758 $ 23.83 $ 280,225 $ 356,428 2061 12,750 1,658 $ 46.53 $ 77,118 11,093 11,758 $ 24.12 $ 283,587 $ 360,705 TOTAL 382,067 49,669 $ 1,932,668 332,398 352,342 $ 7,107,048 $ 9,039,717 20 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
5.7.3. Value of Travel Time Saved from Reduced Accident-Related Delay Benefit-Cost Technical Memorandum Travel time savings from lane-blocking accidents was calculated by dividing it into truck hours saved (13%) and passenger vehicle hours saved (87%), and multiplying passenger vehicle hours by the average vehicle occupancy rate to get person hours saved. Values of time for trucks and passengers are then applied, as explained in Section 5.4. Results, shown in Table 15, add up to $1.5 million when discounted at 7%. 5.8. Emissions Reductions Related to Reduced Accident-Related Delay Vehicles generally produce higher emissions per mile when they are going at stop-and-go speeds, compared to uncongested highway speeds. Emissions factors were obtained from CAL B/C (for Volatile Organic Compounds) and CARB EMFAC 2011 (for other pollutants). For this analysis, the factors for 5 mph were used to approximate the breakdown speeds that are experienced under the No Build condition, and the 60 mph factors were used for the Build condition with an extra lane to handle traffic. These factors are applied per vehicle mile traveled, so three miles was used for the distance. Three miles works with the analysis because 3 miles at 60 mph takes 3 minutes, and 3 miles at 5 mph takes 36 minutes (33 minutes longer), which is similar to the 30-minute delay assumed in the accidentrelated delay analysis. Further, the 30-minute delay per vehicle (explained in Section 5.6.2) was backed out of the accidentrelated travel time savings to arrive at the number of delayed vehicles. These vehicles were multiplied by 3 to provide the VMT for the emissions factors. The Emissions Factors and Emissions tabs in the BCA spreadsheet show the detailed calculations for each year. Samples of the resulting Vehicle Miles Traveled for three different years are shown in Error! Not a valid bookmark self-reference.. Autos and Trucks were separated out because each vehicle type has different emissions factors. Table 16: Vehicle Miles Traveled ( VMT ) Used for Calculating Emissions Savings from Avoided Accident-Related Delay, Selected Years Year Accident relateddelay # Vehicles Delayed # trucks (13%) # Passenger Vehicles (87%) Truck VMT Passenger Vehicle VMT 2022 3,246.9 6,494 844 5,650 2,533 16,949 2034 6,925.6 13,851 1,801 12,051 5,402 36,152 2045 12,750.3 25,501 3,315 22,185 9,945 66,556 21 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
The Emissions Factors tab shows the result of multiplying the above VMT for each emission factor, and calculating the difference between the emissions of each pollutant at 5 mph and 60 mph. This reduction in emissions is shown in Table 17 for three sample years. Table 17: Tons of Emissions Saved from Avoided Accident-Related Delay, Selected Years Year CO2 NOx SOx PM10 VOC CO 2022 14.8 0.5-0.0003 0.0446 0.0233 2034 25.6 0.7-0.0005 0.0144 0.0294 2045 44.9 0.4-0.0009 0.0139 0.0456 The value of this reduction in vehicle emissions is shown in Table 18. The value of CO2 is based on the value of Carbon in the 2016 BCA Guidance. It is shown for information only, and was not included in the NPV or BCA ratio calculations. The value of other pollutants is taken from the 2017 BCA Guidance (there is no value for CO emissions in either document), specifically: Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) $8,126/metric ton Particulate Matter (PM) $371,711/metric ton Sulphur Oxides (SOx) $48,025/metric ton Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) $2,062/metric ton Table 18: Value of Emissions Saved from Avoided Accident-Related Delay, Selected Years Year CO2 NOx SOx PM10 VOC CO TOTAL 2022 $721 $4,309 - $116.09 $91.96 - $4,517 2034 $1,581 $5,642 - $195.94 $29.75 - $5,868 2045 $3,273 $3,322 - $332.45 $28.64 - $3,683 The overall emissions benefits add $56,264 to the Project s NPV. 6. BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS RESULTS 6.1. Benefit-Cost Evaluation Measures The benefit-cost analysis converts potential gains (benefits) and losses (costs) from the Project into monetary units and compares them. The following two common benefit-cost evaluation measures are included in this BCA. Net Present Value ( NPV ): NPV shows the net benefits (benefits minus costs) after being discounted to present values using the real discount rate assumption. The NPV provides a perspective on the overall dollar magnitude of cash flows over time in today s dollar terms. Benefit-Cost Ratio: This measure divides the present value of incremental benefits by the present value of incremental costs to yield the benefit-cost ratio. The benefit-cost ratio 22 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
expresses the relation of discounted benefits to discounted costs as a measure of the extent to which a Project s benefits either exceed or fall short of their associated costs. 6.2. Results Table 19 summarizes the cost and the quantifiable benefits of the Project in terms of present value. The present value of the Project s cost is $92.2 million (using the 7% discount rate), and the benefits have an estimated present value of $101.9 million. The resulting benefit-cost ratio and net present value ( NPV ) are 1.11 and $8.8 million respectively. With a 3% discount rate, the benefit-cost ratio and NPV are 2.12 and $111.7 million. Table 19: Project Benefits Summary Undiscounted Present Value at 7% Present Value at 3% PROJECT COST 117,100,000 83,899,304 99,365,041 Benefits Saved Maintenance Costs of No Build 49,937,683 12,772,128 24,910,208 Travel Time Savings (everyday) 52,021,337 8,471,818 22,081,945 Travel Time Savings (accident-related) 9,039,717 1,463,065 3,828,348 Emissions 181,167 56,264 103,654 Safety 301,151,793 67,420,037 145,996,269 Residual Value 53,550,000 2,549,702 14,160,688 TOTAL BENEFITS 465,881,697 92,733,014 211,081,113 NPV 348,781,697 8,833,710 111,716,071 Benefit Cost Ratio 3.98 1.11 2.12 6.3. Discussion of Quantifiable Benefits Most of the Project benefits are a result of the accident reduction that will result from improvements to the corridor. These include interchange upgrades with increased merging distance, lane additions, surface and marking renewals, paved inside shoulders, and improved signage. These safety features and related design will bring this segment of the I-40 corridor to a quality that meets or exceeds national standards. Travel time savings and improved travel time reliability also provide Project benefits; and these gains result primarily from the addition of one extra lane to the 5.5-mile segment of I-40 in each direction. Travel time savings are a significant benefit to this Project, as substantial increases to average speed are possible with the addition of two lanes, particularly in the AM and PM peak hours where travel speeds are projected to increase by 18-21 miles per hour above No Build speeds west of the Anderson Interchange (Table 6). Travel time and emissions benefits also result from the increased capacity that will substantially reduce accident-related delay. 23 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
The remainder of the benefits are the avoided costs of rehabilitation and maintenance of the No Build, and the Residual Value discussed in Section 3.4. As described in the application, the existing facility is experiencing concerns with structural deficiency, deck repairs, and other issues related to is age, which explains the $12.8 million (discounted) value of avoided maintenance. 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS A number of sensitivity analyses were run to determine the benefit-cost ratio under varying future conditions, or with changes in the valuation of certain items. Under each of these scenarios, the benefits were found to exceed project costs. 7.1. Independent Utility No Turnpike As noted in the INFRA Application Narrative, an important driver of the I-40 Douglas Project is the expected traffic that will be added to I-40 as a result of the Turnpike extension beginning in 2020. This traffic adds approximately 5.4% to the traffic volumes (see Table 4), thus impacting both travel delay (by increasing congestion), and safety (based on vehicle-miles travelled). It is possible, but unlikely, that the EOC Turnpike would experience delays or risks in construction. As noted in the application, the Turnpike project will be fully paid for by bonds, is not affected by the state budget process, and is currently being let to contractors. Nonetheless, the BCA was run with the lower traffic numbers to assess if benefits exceeded costs without the addition of Turnpike traffic. The analysis found that even with the lower traffic volumes (that is, without the Turnpike Extension), the I-40 Douglas Project has benefits that exceed the cost of the Project. Running the BCA with 5.4% lower traffic volumes in all years resulted in a benefit-cost ratio of 1.02 using a 7% discount rate. This is less than the 1.11 ratio with the Turnpike traffic, but still indicates that the safety and travel time benefits clearly exceed the Project costs. 7.2. Alternate Safety Analysis Safety provides more than half of the benefits of this project, and a closer examination is warranted. Selection of appropriate CMFs can be tricky since so much of this project will change, and CMFs do not always match perfectly. For example, the analysis uses a CMF that predicts accident reduction for lengthening acceleration lanes by 100 feet, but the Project will lengthen acceleration and deceleration lanes by more than 100 feet. The paved median will be widened to match standards, but no CMF was found dealing with that improvement. The Douglas Interchange will be completely re-designed, with numerous changes, but only one CMF was used to predict accident reduction at that location. A previous analysis (done for the 2016 FASTLANE application) assumed that the accidents on the mainline would be reduced to the average accident rate for similar roads in Oklahoma. Table 9 shows the average rate (63.6 crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled), compared to today s rate (135.7 crashes per 100 million vehicles miles traveled). If one assumes that the project will bring the accident rate to the average level for similar facilities in Oklahoma, the overall Project NPV rises 24 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
substantially to $52.1 million with a 1.62 benefit-cost ratio. And these numbers ignore any potential reduction in the interchange accidents. 7.3. Addition of Values for CO2 The USDOT 2017 BCA Guidance does not provide values for CO2 emissions. If last year s values are included the change to the Project benefits are minimal adding only $16,685 to the Net Present Value. 7.4. Use of 3% Discount Rate As shown in Table 19, using a 3% discount rate increases the NPV to over $111.7 million, with a BCA ratio of 2.12. This is due to the fact that as traffic increases in the later years of the analysis, the benefits increase. Higher traffic volumes increase delay exponentially, and accidents typically grow with traffic volumes as well. 7.5. Remove Growth Assumption from Value of Travel Time The BCA assumes a real growth in the value of time of 1.2% annually from the 2016 figures provided in the 2017 BCA Guidance. These figures are $14.10 for All Purposes Private Vehicles Travel, and $27.20 for Truck Travel. If no change in real value is included, the Project s NPV at 7% drops to $6.5 million, with a Benefit-Cost ratio of 1.08. 8. NON-QUANTITATIVE COSTS AND BENEFITS In addition to the benefits described above, there are additional benefits to this Project which we were not able to quantify. These include: The benefit of reliability while travel time savings can be easily valued by the value of hours saved, it is more difficult to develop a value for reliability. With a half-hour or more delay occurring more than once a month on average, business travel or other important trips may need to be begin earlier to account for delays that may not occur. The benefit of delay reduction from lane-blocking accidents that occur during non-peak hours. Damage to vehicles from rough pavement. The benefit of lower emissions from the improved traffic fluidity associated with the improvements at the interchanges. With longer acceleration and deceleration lanes at the Anderson Road Interchange, and the removal of the weave at Douglas Interchange, the speed of through traffic will be smoother, reducing congestion and emissions. The final non-quantified benefit is the impact the I-40 Douglas Project will have on national defense. Tinker Air Force Base is without question a vital asset in our military infrastructure, repairing and maintaining the world s most advanced aircraft for military bases across the nation and beyond (Tinker serves 46 foreign nations, as well as 92 Air Force bases in the US and overseas). As noted 25 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA
above, Tinker ships and receives a majority of its goods via truck, and I-40 is therefore vital to its operations. I-40 and Douglas Boulevard in the Project area also serve a major share of commuters to the base, which is the largest single-site employer in Oklahoma. Figure 6: An aircraft mechanic replaces nut plates on a B-52H Stratofortress at Tinker Air Force Base. 26 Oklahoma I-40/Douglas INFRA