CHAPTER III Analysis of Production and Sales Trend of Indian Automobile Industry Analysis of production trend Production is the activity of making tangible goods. In the economic sense production means both making goods and rendering services that add value to a product even though no physical change has taken place 1. It covers all the activities of procurement, all action and utilization of resources such as materials, labour, energy, machinery etc., Production is one of the most important areas of performance. In business enterprises, production function will be considered to be very effective and useful because it must operate primarily to satisfy customer s demand and it must permit production activities to operate in an economical and efficient manner 2. Production may be considered as the backbone of the manufacturing business enterprises. The production data of a company may give an idea as to how the company has performed as compared to other companies of the same industry. The production performance of an enterprise can be measured in a number of ways. Production performance of the industry as a whole can be compared with different years; also the comparison can be done in between the competitive industries. For appraising the production performance of individual companies, production in different years can be compared and inter company comparison between companies under study may be more meaningful for this purpose. The analysis of capacity utilization can also significantly prove that production performance of a company or of the 1. S.A Sherlekar, Industrial Organization and Management (Bombay: Himalya Publishing Honee, 1998), P. 375. 2. A. Aziz, performance Appraisal-Accounting and Quantitative Approaches (Jaipur: pointer publishers, 2003), P. 22. 72
industries as a whole. All these techniques have been adopted to appraise the production performance of the automobile industry in the present chapter. An attempt has also been made to estimate trend co-efficients for production of automobiles in India during the study period by fitting a linear regression model. The linear model fitted is as follows P = + t + e Where P is rate of production, t is the time and and are the parameters [intercept and co-efficient respectively] and e is the error term. To test whether the difference between actual production and estimated production was significant or not, the following hypothesis is framed and tested. H o - There is no significant difference between actual production and the trend values of production among different years. (or) H a - There is significant difference between actual production and the trend values of production among different years. The automobile industry makes more range of products such as commercial vehicles, passenger cars and multiutility vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers. Table 3.1 shows the annual production of automobiles in India from the year 1995-96 to 2005-06. The variations of production of various products have also been computed taking the production data of 1995-1996 as the base 100. Further, product-wise dispersion in production of Indian automobile industry over the study period is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate. The estimates are presented in Table 3.1. 73
Table 3.1 Annual production of automobile in India (1995-96 to 2005-06) (In thousands) Years Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Two and Three Wheelers 1995-96 (100) 256.60 (100) 414.90 (100) 1107.99 1996-97 (117) 300.60 (119) 493.70 (228) 2522.70 1997-98 (89) 229.00 (116) 480.60 (238) 2640.40 1998-99 (53) 135.80 (122) 505.50 (263) 2911.30 1999-00 (71) 181.60 (168) 698.20 (294) 3259.00 2000-01 (59) 151.90 (151) 626.70 (295) 3266.70 2001-02 (62) 159.00 (148) 614.30 (366) 4056.50 2002-03 (82) 210.60 (173) 718.80 (455) 5035.90 2003-04 (110) 281.90 (177) 736.00 (453) 5013.80 2004-05 (133) 341.50 (240) 994.20 (578) 6403.70 2005-06 (148) 378.80 (276) 1144.50 (596) 6605.80 Mean 238.85 675.22 3893.07 CV 0.34 0.33 0.44 CAGR 4.00 10.69 19.54 Figures in brackets are indices Source: CMIE Database 74
Table 3.2 Estimates of trend co-efficient for production of automobile in India (1995-96 to 2005-06) S.No Type P = + t + e R 2 F value 1. Commercial Vehicles 181.01 (3.59) 9.64 (1.29) 0.16 1.68 2. Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles 306.55 (4.84) 61.44 (6.58)* 0.82 43.31 3. Two and three wheelers 883.26 (3.31) 501.63 (12.74)* 0.94 162.53 * - significant at 5 percent level; Source: computed Table 3.3 Projections for production of automobile in India (in thousands) Years Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Two and Three Wheelers 2009-10 325.60 1228.15 8407.71 2010-11 335.25 1289.59 8909.34 2011-12 344.89 1351.03 9410.97 2012-13 354.53 1412.47 9912.60 2013-14 364.17 1473.91 10414.23 Source: Computed 75
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Commercial Vehicles The production of commercial vehicle for the period of study has been shown in Table 3.1. The production of commercial vehicle mark fluctuating trend through out the study period. In the year 1995-96, the production was 256.60 thousands which increased in 1996-97 but gradually decreased. In the last four years the production increased continuously and it reached 378.80 thousands in 2005-06. The compound annual growth rate of production of commercial vehicles was positive which worked out as 4 per cent during the study period. The co-efficient of variation (0.34) indicates that the production of commercial vehicles moderately fluctuated during the study period. The results of estimates of trends co-efficients for production of commercial vehicles are presented in Table 3.2. Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles The annual production of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles has been shown in Table 3.1. The production of passenger cars and multiuitlity vehicles showed a fluctuating trend during the study period. The production was 414.90 thousand in 1995-96 which decreased after an increase to 493.70 in 1996-97. In 1997-98 the production process started increasing sharply for all years during the study period. It increased to 276 per cent in 2005-06 in the indices. But there was a sharp increase between 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06.The mean values of production of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles were 675.22 thousands during the study period. The compound annual growth rate is positive and the CV value (0.33) indicates that the production of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles moderately fluctuated during the study period. The results of estimates of trend co-efficient for production of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles are presented in Table 3.2. 77
Two and Three Wheelers It is evident from the Table 3.1 that the production of three wheelers and two wheelers showed a fluctuating trend throughout the study period. It was 1107.99 thousands in 1995-96 which increased very sharply till 2002-03 tremendously. But in the next year 2003-04 it declined to 5013.80 thousands. In the next two years it increased rapidly to 6605.80. The CV value experienced highly fluctuating variation. The compound annual growth rate of two and three wheelers was positive during the study period. The results of estimates of trend co-efficient for production of two and three wheelers are presented in Table.3.2. Production of automobiles in India-Projections The projections obtained for production of commercial vehicles, passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and two and three wheelers by linear model growth is listed in Table 3.3. It shows that the two and three wheelers have growing good market potential. Table 3.3 indicates that the commercial vehicles and passenger cars and multiutility vehicles are growing marginally. The table shows that the two and three wheelers are preferred over others. From the above analysis the linear model of time trend of production has proved to be good fit in case of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and two and three wheelers. This is revealed from the value of R 2, the coefficient of determination. The R 2 value of commercial vehicles was 0.16, such great variation in the value of R 2 implies that time explain production variation of Indian automobiles in different degree over the time. The values of was positive and hence it is statistically significant. 78
Table 3.4 Annual production of selected automobile industry in India Industry Commercial Vehicles Range (in thousands) Mean (in thousands) CV CAGR Ashok Leyland Ltd 26.50-56.62 39.68 0.24 4.07 Tata Motors Ltd 129.32-423.45 236.55 0.41 8.83 Eicher Motor Ltd 5.19-44.76 16.02 0.92 20.58 Swaraj Mazda Ltd 2.88-14.56 6.82 0.58 12.47 Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Hindustan Motors Ltd 15.86-37.86 25.25 0.24-3.64 Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 63.15-141.12 88.48 0.30 8.01 Maruthi Udyog Ltd 277.78-562.75 394.76 0.22 7.28 Daewoo Motors India Ltd 5.15-35.54 14.72 0.83-1.96 Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 1212.76-1723.82 1416.30 0.11 2.56 Maharastra Scooters Ltd 17.90-154.36 88.15 0.65-14.45 TVS Motors India Ltd 442.81-1322.81 890.80 0.33 11.58 Hero Honda Motors Ltd 230.08-2322.65 1168.36 0.68 26.01 Source: Computed from the annual reports of the selected Industry 79
Table 3.5 Estimates of trend co-efficient for production of selected automobile industry in India (1995-96 to 2005-06) Industry Commercial Vehicles P = + t + e R 2 F value Ashok Leyland Ltd 29.88 (5.49) Tata Motors Ltd 97.15 (2.43) Eicher Motor Ltd -5.81 (-.99) Swaraj Mazda Ltd 0.40 (0.34) Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles 1.63 (2.03)* 23.23 (3.94)* 3.64 (4.22)* 1.07 (6.11)* 0.32 4.14 0.63 15.55 0.66 17.79 0.81 37.27 Hindustan Motors Ltd 32.78 (10.64) Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 50.94 (4.46) Maruthi Udyog Ltd 257.20 (8.50) Daewoo Motors India Ltd 17.25 (1.84) Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 1224.01 (15.49) Maharastra Scooter Ltd 182.92 (11.10) TVS Motors India Ltd 365.44 (11.90) Hero Honda Motors Ltd -239.64 (-2.66) * Significant at 5 percent level Source: computed. -1.26 (-2.76) 6.26 (3.72)* 22.93 (5.14)* -0.51 (0.31) 32.04 (2.75)* -15.80 (-6.50) 87.56 (19.33)* 234.67 (17.65)* 0.46 7.63 0.61 13.80 0.75 26.44 0.01 0.09 0.46 7.56 0.82 42.26 0.98 373.76 0.97 311.58 80
Dispersions in production of Indian Automobile Industry This section of the chapter intends to examine company wise dispersion, in production of Indian automobile industry over the study period of 11 years. This is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate. Further estimates of trend coefficient for production of selected automobile industry have been computed. The estimates are presented in Table 3.4 and Table 3.5. The annual production of selected automobile industry during the study period has been shown in Appendix I. It is observed from Table 3.4 that under commercial vehicles sector, Tata Motors Ltd had highest mean followed by Ashok Leyland Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd. Another important observation which follows from Table 3.4 is that mean production of commercial vehicles varies greatly in case of all the industries under commercial vehicles sector. From the CV value, all the industries experienced highly fluctuating variation. The compound annual growth rate of commercial vehicles by all the selected industries was positive during the study period and was highest in Eicher Motors Ltd. It is clear from that Table 3.5 that in commercial vehicles the F value was highest in Swaraj Mazda Ltd (37.27) followed by Eicher Motors Ltd and Tata Motors Ltd and was least in Ashok Leyland Ltd. The linear model of time trend of production has proved to be good fit in case of four industries. This is revealed from the value of R 2, the co-efficient of determination. The great variation is value of R 2 implies that time explain production variation of different industries under commercial vehicles sector was indifferent over the study period. 81
In passenger cars and multiutility vehicles sector, the F value was highest in case of Maruthi Udyog Ltd followed by Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd and Hindustan Motors Ltd. Further, the linear model of time trend is good in case of Maruthi Udyog Ltd and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd as the value of R 2 indicates that time explain production variation of these two industries vary from 75 per cent and 61 per cent during the study period. Under two and three wheelers sectors, the linear model of time trend of production has proved to be good fit in TVS Motors India Ltd and Hero Honda Motors Ltd as the value R 2 indicates that time explain production variation of these two industry vary to the tone of 98 and 97 per cent during the study period. Capacity utilisation of automobile industry In developing economy, the need for optimum utilisation of industrial capacity can hardly be over-emphasised. Production below the capacity in industrial plant is the source of a significant loss in the growth of Gross National Product of a country. The production performance of a business enterprise can be appraised on the basis of capacity utilisation. Full utilisation of the installed capacity is the dominant desideratum in judging the operational efficiency of the business enterprise. Through better utilisation of installed capacity, the economy should improve the capital output and capital labour ratios and should consequently result in more employment, more income and more competitiveness in export market without additional capital investment 3. Capacity utilisation means the proportion of the total capacity which has been gainfully utilised for the production of required goods and services 4. 3. NC Joshi, Management-concept and Analysis, P-50 4. Ibid, P.51 82
Table 3.6 Capacity utilisation in automobile industry in India (1995-96 to 2005-06) Years Commercial Vehicles Installed capacity (000) Capacity utilisation (%) Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Installed capacity (000) Capacity utilisation (%) Two and three Wheelers Installed capacity (000) Capacity utilisation (%) 1995-96 332.66 69.56 475.60 51.06 3779.08 55.66 1996-97 391.16 47.64 514.84 52.07 4416.18 55.34 1997-98 409.16 33.81 526.84 44.54 4724.68 58.41 1998-99 452.00 29.29 824.84 34.75 5339.68 59.43 1999-00 467.00 48.30 779.00 60.48 5789.18 49.37 2000-01 471.00 41.07 749.00 57.12 6372.88 46.84 2001-02 468.00 54.20 783.80 50.80 10487.70 43.84 2002-03 453.00 68.82 693.80 65.61 10143.57 49.25 2003-04 460.50 92.62 556.00 76.74 7483.50 58.01 2004-05 482.60 95.50 623.00 82.14 9823.20 62.03 2005-06 505.80 96.88 794.00 91.43 10120.40 73.41 Mean 60.53 60.61 55.60 CV 0.41 0.28 0.15 CAGR 3.35 5.99 2.82 Source: CMIE Database. 83
It also refers to the relationship between production and installed capacity. The relationship has been calculated by dividing figure of production by figure of installed capacity in terms of percentages 5. The overall performance of manufacturing business enterprise, to a great extent, depends upon its the utilisation of production capacity, it also indirectly helps in exploring the production performance. The production performance ultimately depends on foreign market and finally contributing to Gross National Product 6. The automobile Industry in India produces a large variety of products. The installed capacity and capacity utilisation ratio of different products of automobile industry during the study period is presented in Table 3.6. The capacity utilisation ratio of commercial vehicles marked a fluctuating trend during the study period. It varied in range of 67.59 per cent from 29.29 per cent in 1998-99 to 96.88 per cent in 2005-06. The CV value came to 0.41, whereas average capacity utilisation ratio remained 60.53 during the study period. The capacity utilisation ratio of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles also showed fluctuating trend. It varied from 34.75 per cent in 1995-96 to 91.43 per cent in 2005-06 indicating the range of 56.68 per cent. The CV has 0.28 with a mean of 60.61 during the study period. The two and three wheelers sector revealed a fluctuating trend during the study period. It varied in range 29.57 per cent from 43.84 per cent in 2001-02 to 73.41 per cent in 2005-06. The co-efficient variation being 0.15 and the mean being 55.60 during the study period. It is, therefore, obvious that the Indian Automobile Industry has not utilised its plan capacity effectively. It is, therefore, suggested that the management should concentrate on overcoming the problem of power cuts, implementing research programs, adopting new techniques, etc. 5. A.N. Agarwal, Corporate performance evaluation (Jaipur: Pointer Publisher, 1991), P. 66 6. A. Aziz, opp.cite., P. 36. 84
Table 3.7 Capacity utilisation of selected automobile industry (Production as percentage of installed capacity) (1995-96to 2005-06) Industry Range (%) Commercial Vehicles Mean (%) CV CAGR (%) Ashok Leyland Ltd 52.50-113.26 78.54 0.24 3.35 Tata Motors Ltd 16.57-48.24 32.15 0.35 1.84 Eicher Motor Ltd 43.25-106.75 100.71 0.95 0.58 Swaraj Mazda Ltd 57.60-196.92 114.85 0.43 8.15 Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Hindustan Motors Ltd 24.78-61.09 40.64 0.27-3.64 Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 47.09-93.94 67.97 0.22 1.32 Maruthi Udyog Ltd 94.40-194.94 125.37 0.25 6.11 Daewoo Motors India Ltd 6.21-46.26 18.40 0.72 13.67 Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 11.51-86.23 41.31 0.58 6.57 Maharastra Scooter Ltd 11.93-102.91 60.89 0.64-14.05 TVS Motors India Ltd 52.10-97.83 71.62 0.17 6.52 Hero Honda Motors Ltd 59.88-98.29 86.56 0.12 0.30 Source: Computed 85
Dispersion on capacity utilisation ratio of selected automobile industry This section of the chapter intends to examine industries wise capacity utilisation ratio of Indian automobile industry over the study period. This is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate. The estimates are presented in Table 3.7. The individual capacity utilisation ratio of selected automobile industry during the study period has been shown in Appendix II. It is observed from the Table 3.7 that under commercial vehicles sector on an average Swaraj Mazda Ltd has the highest per cent (114.85 per cent) followed by Eicher Motors Ltd (100.71 per cent) and Ashok Leyland Ltd (78.54 per cent) during the study period. Ashok Leyland Ltd had the lowest CV value of 0.24 whereas Eicher Motors Ltd has the highest during the study period. The compound annual growth rate of all industries was positive in this sector. It is also observed from the Appendix II that the capacity utilisation ratio of Swaraj Mazda Ltd 100 per cent from 2000-01 to 2003-04. Among the selected passenger cars and multiutility vehicles, Maruthi Udyog Ltd had the highest mean capacity of 125.37 per cent followed by Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd (67.97 per cent) and Hindustan Motors Ltd (40.64 per cent). The analysis of co-efficient of variation reveals that Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd had the least (CV = 0.22), while Daewoo Motors India Ltd had the highest CV value during the study period. The compound annual growth rate was positive in all industries except Hindustan Motors Ltd during the study period. The mean capacity ratio was the highest in Hero Honda Motors Ltd (86.56 per cent) followed by TVS Motors India Ltd (71.62 per cent) and Maharastra Scooters India Ltd (60.89 per cent) during the study period. The 86
CV value was the lowest in Hero Honda Motors Ltd (0.12) while the highest was in Bajaj Auto Ltd (0.58) during the study period. The compound annual growth rate was positive in all cases except Maharastra Scooters India Ltd during the study period. To conclude, the mean rates of capacity utilisation varied in all industries irrespective of the sector of which they belong. Analysis of sales trend Sales is the value of the output offered to the customers. It is the life blood of a business enterprise without which the business cannot survive. Further, sales is the indicator of the operational efficiency of management in how efficiently the management has used the assets of the business. The higher the volume of sales, the more efficient the management. Sales is also related to profitability of an enterprise. If other things remain constant, the higher the amount of sales, the more profitable of the business is and viceversa. The trend of sales indicates the direction in which forecast for further can be made. The trend analysis of sales helps to understand the growth of a business enterprise. For proper trend analysis, the trend should be studied at least over a period of five or more years 7. The sales performance of an enterprise can be measured in a number of ways. The sales performance of the industry as a whole can be compared with different years; also the comparison can be done in between the competitive industries. The analysis of market share can also significantly prove the sales performance of a company or of the industry as a whole. All these techniques have been adopted to appraise the sales performance of the Indian automobile industry in the present section. 7. Sanjaey J. Bhayani, A study on sales trend and cost structure of Indian Cement Industry, The Management Accountant, Jan 2006, Vol.41, No.1, PP 66-72. 87
An attempt has also been made to estimate trend co-efficient for sales of automobiles in India during the study period by fitting a linear regression model. The linear model fitted is as follows P = + t + e Where P is rate of sales, t s the time and and are the parameters [intercept and co-efficient respectively] and e is the error term. To test whether the difference between actual sales and estimated sales was significant or not, the following hypothesis is framed and tested. H o - There is no significant difference between actual sales and the trend values of sales among different years. (or) H a - There is significant difference between actual sales and trend values of sales among different years. The annual sales quantity of automobiles products such as commercial vehicles, passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and two and three wheelers from 1995-96 to 2005-06 are presented in Table 3.8. To study the trend of sales in automobile industry during the study period, the year 1995-96 is taken as the base year and figure of sales in the base year have been taken equal to 100. Index numbers have been calculated for the remaining year based on the amount of sales for the base year. Further, the product wise dispersion in sales of Indian Automobile Industry over the study period is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate. The estimates are also presented in Table 3.8. 88
Table 3.8 Annual sales units of automobile in India (In thousands) Years Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Two and Three Wheelers 1995-96 (100) 248.23 (100) 398.03 (100) 2724.54 1996-97 (92) 228.71 (129) 511.88 (112) 3053.34 1997-98 (61) 150.44 (126) 503.12 (120) 3265.39 1998-99 (54) 134.60 (125) 496.10 (137) 3729.51 1999-00 (66) 165.05 (166) 661.33 (141) 3828.99 2000-01 (58) 144.29 (161) 641.31 (141) 3829.33 2001-02 (53) 130.62 (159) 633.15 (156) 4250.50 2002-03 (75) 185.84 (173) 689.52 (167) 4543.27 2003-04 (109) 271.43 (184) 730.91 (207) 5635.90 2004-05 (124) 308.42 (192) 763.02 (228) 6215.24 2005-06 (145) 360.50 (206) 821.50 (251) 6825.62 Mean 211.65 622.80 4363.78 CV 0.37 0.21 0.31 CAGR 3.79 7.49 9.60 Figure in brackets are Indices Source: CMIE Database 89
Table 3.9 Estimates of trend co-efficient for sales units of automobile in India (1995-96to 2005-06) S.No Type P = + t + e R 2 F value 1. Commercial Vehicles 140.51 (3.07) 11.92 (1.77) 0.25 3.14 2. Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles 395.59 (16.22) 37.85 (10.53)* 0.93 110.86 3. Two and Three Wheelers 2046.68 (7.86) 384.67 (10.02)* 0.92 100.40 * - significant of 5 percent level Source: Completed Years Table 3.10 Projections for sales units of automobile in India Commercial Vehicles Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles (In thousands) Two and Three Wheelers 2009-10 318.95 963.34 7816.73 2010-11 330.87 1001.19 8201.40 2011-12 342.79 1039.04 8586.87 2012-13 354.71 1076.89 8970.74 2013-14 366.63 1114.74 9355.41 Source: Completed 90
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Commercial Vehicles The annual sales of commercial vehicles for the period of study has been shown in Table 3.8. The sales of commercial vehicles marked fluctuating trend throughout the study period. In the year 1995-96 the sales was 248.23 thousands which decreased to 134.60 thousands in the next three years. This was due to increasing prices and decrease in quantity of sales. But again from 1999-00 a slow increase in quantity of sales occurred. In the last three years the sales of commercial vehicles increased continuously and registered 360.50 indices in 2005-06. The analysis of CV value indicates that the sales of commercial vehicles moderately fluctuated during the study period. The results of estimates of trend co-efficient for sales of commercial vehicles is presented in Table 3.9. The yearly increase in sales of commercial vehicles comes to 11.92 thousands. Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles It is evident from Table 3.8 that the sales trend of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles registered a rising trend throughout the period of study except in 1998-99 which showed a declining trend when compared to previous year. The mean value of sales of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles is 622.80 thousands during the study period. The analysis of CV value indicates that sales of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles moderately fluctuated during the study period. Table 3.9 shows the linear least square trend of sales of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles. The yearly increase in sales comes to 37.85 thousands. 92
Two and Three Wheelers The total sales figures in quantity of two and three wheelers have been presented in Table 3.8. The table reflects a rising trend in sales of two and three wheelers over the study period. Only during 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 the sales remained constant. The mean value of sales of two and three wheelers comes to 4363.78 thousands. Table 3.9 shows the linear least square trend of sales of two and three wheelers. The yearly increasing sales come to 384.67 thousands. Sales of automobiles in India - Projections The projections obtained for sales of commercial vehicles, passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and two and three wheelers by linear growth model have been presented in Table 3.10. It is evident from the Table 3.10 that commercial vehicles, passenger cars and multiutility vehicles were growing marginally whereas two and three wheelers have fast emerging growing market in the years to come in our country. It can be concluded that the linear model of time trend of sales has proved to be good fit in case of passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and two and three wheelers. This is revealed from the values of R 2 which varied from 0.25 for commercial vehicles, 0.93 for passenger cars and multiutility vehicles and 0.92 for two and three wheelers. Such a great variation in the value of R 2 implies that time explains sales variation in different degree over the time. It is concluded that at present sales level of automobiles product is at a satisfactory level yet there is further scope to increase the level of growth rate per year regularly. 93
Table 3.11 Annual sales units of selected automobile industry in India Industry Commercial Vehicles Range (in thousands) Mean (in thousands) CV CAGR (%) Ashok Leyland Ltd 29.68-67.82 40.69 0.29 6.11 Tata Motors Ltd 128.86-383.73 222.40 0.36 7.80 Eicher Motor Ltd 5.28-63.83 20.45 1.10 26.94 Swaraj Mazda Ltd 2.98-14.68 18.77 1.26 13.25 Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Hindustan Motors Ltd 21.05-38.03 25.72 0.24-3.23 Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 62.93-142.91 89.10 0.29 7.39 Maruthi Udyog Ltd 275.26-523.25 383.29 0.21 6.63 Daewoo Motors India Ltd 6.50-35.79 16.07 0.68 5.20 Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 1301.97-1720.25 1433.00 0.10 2.82 Maharastra Scooters Ltd 16.93-152.60 87.86 0.66-15.76 TVS Motors India Ltd 410.81-1426.92 892.85 0.37 13.25 Hero Honda Motors Ltd 230.16-2620.42 1205.87 0.71 27.54 Source: Computed 94
Table 3.12 Estimates of trend co-efficient for sales units of selected automobile industry in India (1995-96 to 2005-06) Industry P = + t + e R 2 F value Commercial Vehicles Ashok Leyland Ltd 27.39 (4.42) Tata Motors Ltd 109.60 (3.31) Eicher Motor Ltd -13.49 (-1.58) Swaraj Mazda Ltd 0.284 (0.24) Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Hindustan Motors Ltd 32.82 (10.08) Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 50.38 (4.87) Maruthi Udyog Ltd 257.50 (10.23) Daewoo Motors India Ltd 14.28 (1.69) Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 1224.03 (18.22) Maharastra Scooters Ltd 182.08 (10.79) TVS Motors India Ltd 308.85 (9.08) Hero Honda Motors Ltd -310.08 (-3.04) * - Significant at 5 percent level Source: computed 2.22 (2.43)* 18.80 (3.85)* 5.66 (4.50)* 1.085 (6.32)* -1.18 (-2.46) 6.45 (4.23)* 20.97 (5.65)* 0.36 (0.24) 31.49 (3.13)* -15.70 (-6.31)* 97.33 (19.41)* 252.66 (16.81)* 0.40 5.88 0.62 14.80 0.69 20.21 0.82 39.95 0.40 6.07 0.67 17.92 0.78 31.93 0.01 0.06 0.52 9.78 0.82 39.85 0.98 376.59 0.97 282.66 95
Dispersions in sales of Indian automobile industry This section of the chapter intends to examine company wise dispersion in sales of Indian automobiles over the study period. This is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate which were presented in Table 3.11 and 3.12. The annual sales of selected automobile industry during the study period is shown in Appendix III. It is observed from Table 3.11 that under commercial vehicle sectors Tata Motors Ltd had the highest mean sales followed by Ashok Leyland Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd. The mean sales vary greatly in case of all the industries under the sector from the CV value, two out of four industries (50 per cent) experienced moderate fluctuating variation in sales during the study period. The compound annual growth rate of sales of commercial vehicles was positive during the study period and is highest in Swaraj Mazda Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd. It is clear from Table 3.12 that the linear model at time trend of sales has proved to be good fit. This is revealed from the value of R 2 which implies that time explain sales variation of different industries under commercial vehicles sector is in different degrees over the time. It is observed from Table 3.11 that under passenger cars and multiutility vehicles sectors, Maruthi Udyog Ltd had high mean value followed by Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd and Hindustan Motors Ltd. It is observed that three out of four industries have experienced moderately fluctuating variation in sales during the study period. The analysis of compound annual growth rate of sales is positive in all cases except Hindustan Motors Ltd. It is highest in Daewoo Motors Ltd followed by Hindustan Motors Ltd. 96
It is clear that Table 3.12 signifies the linear model at time trend of sales which is proved to be good-fit in Maruthi Udyog Ltd (383.29 per cent) and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd (89.10 per cent) as per the value of R 2, coefficient of determination. The value of R 2 indicates that time explain sales variation of these two industries are 78 per cent and 67 per cent respectively. The negative value of in case of Hindustan Motors Ltd implies sales decline over the study period. It is observed from Table 3.11 that under two and three wheelers sectors, the mean value of sales are the highest in case of Bajaj Auto Ltd, Hero Honda Motors Ltd and TVS Motors India Ltd. The table also reveals that two out of four industries has showed moderately fluctuating variation in sales series over the study period. The compound annual growth rate is negative only in case of Maharastra Scooters Ltd. Among the industries having positive compound annual growth rate Hero Honda Motors Ltd is the highest during the study period. It is observed from Table 3.12 that the linear model of time trend of sales has proved to be good fit in case of TVS Motors Ltd, Hero Honda Motors Ltd as per R 2. The negative value of, the time trend co-efficient confirms the decline in sales in case of Maharastra Scooters India Ltd during the study period. Dispersions in Market share of Indian Automobile Industry This section of this chapter intends to examine company wise dispersion in market share of Indian automobile industry over the study period. This is achieved through estimation of mean, co-efficient of variation and compound annual growth rate which are presented in Table 3.13. It is observed from Table 3.13 that under commercial vehicles sector on an 97
Table 3.13 Annual market share of selected automobile industry in India Industry Commercial Vehicles Range (%) Mean (%) CV CAGR (%) Ashok Leyland Ltd 31.05-39.39 35.00 0.09 1.67 Tata Motors Ltd 24.93-65.25 39.72 0.37 6.29 Eicher Motor Ltd 5.75-19.24 13.22 0.37 11.50 Swaraj Mazda Ltd 3.33-16.23 8.70 0.45 13.51 Passenger Cars and Multiutility Vehicles Hindustan Motors Ltd 2.67-11.23 6.75 0.34 2.09 Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd 36.45-57.23 46.74 0.15 2.50 Maruthi Udyog Ltd 23.82-41.33 31.43 0.21-2.45 Daewoo Motors India Ltd 1.35-8.00 3.87 0.70 0.96 Two and Three Wheelers Bajaj Auto Ltd 16.12-32.18 22.21 0.19 7.18 Maharastra Scooters Ltd 1.59-10.50 6.74 0.54-9.97 TVS Motors India Ltd 10.31-18.21 13.75 0.19 3.64 Hero Honda Motors Ltd 8.27-14.24 10.84 0.17 5.45 Source: Computed 98
average Tata Motors Ltd (39.72 per cent) had the highest market share ratio followed by Ashok Leyland Ltd (35 per cent) and Eicher Motors Ltd (13.22 per cent). The compound annual growth rate is positive in all industries over the study period. The annual market share of selected automobile industry during the study period has been shown in Appendix IV. Among the selected passengers cars and multiutility vehicles on an average Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd has the highest market share ratio (46.74 per cent) followed by Maruthi Udyog Ltd (31.43 per cent), Hindustan Motors Ltd (6.15 per cent) and Daewoo Motors Ltd (3.87 per cent) during the study period. The CV experienced a moderate fluctuation during the study period. The analysis of compound annual growth rate of market share is positive in all cases except Maruthi Udyog Ltd. In case of two and three wheelers the market share is highest in Bajaj Auto Ltd (22.21 per cent) followed by TVS Motors India Ltd (13.75 per cent), Hero Honda Motors Ltd (10.84 per cent) during the study period. The CV value experienced a moderate fluctuation during the study period. The compound annual growth rate of market share is positive in all cases except Maharastra Scooters India Ltd. To conclude, the mean rates of market share vary greatly in case of all the industries under examination irrespective of the sector to which they belong. 99