Marine Bunkers 2020 & Beyond 8 th International Istanbul Bunker Conference Donald Gregory, C Eng., Director Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems Association
EGCSA Objectives To protect and promote the interests of the EGCS industry To transfer knowledge on the environmental, technical & commercial realities of EGCS technologies Compliance with the Code of Conduct of the EGCS Association
Unprecedented Environmental Regulations DIESEL ENGINE - EMISSIONS TO AIR Increasing number of emission control areas (ECAs) = 0.10%S A global sulphur cap = 0.50%S (unless using exhaust gas cleaning) Tier III NOx ECAs applying to vessels with keel laid from 2016 Ban on use of residual fuels in the Antarctic Consideration on the ban of residual fuels in the Arctic (IMO Polar Code) Assessment of the emissions of particulate including black carbon Current sulphur oxide emission control areas in red 3 Polar Code - Maximum extent of Arctic waters application Courtesy of IMO Polar Code
Unprecedented Environmental Regulations GLOBAL WARMING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AMBITIONS Mandatory targets for Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) Mandatory requirements for Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) Plans for targets for Energy Efficiency Operational Index (EEOI) European Union Regulation (EU) 2015/757 for Monitoring, Reporting & Verification (MRV) Unforeseen impact of methane slip effectively neutralises CO 2 benefits of gas engine operation 4
Unprecedented Environmental Regulations TRANSFER OF AQUATIC INVASIVE SPECIES Known as the Ballast Water convention requires that ballast water must be handled/processed in a way that prevents species from being transported in ship s tanks to a new territory where preditation is minimal or non-existent The measurement of compliance is highly problematic due to the wide variation in the definition of viable organisms Technologies have to deal with a massive variation in operating conditions creating severe challenges to meet extermination assurance under all conditions Few approved systems available General view is all current equipment will need upgrading or scrapping within 5 years of installation. Zebra mussel on native species Courtesy of Dept of Natural Resources 5
Longest Bottom of Cycle since the Motorship Courtesy of Clarkson Research 6
Longest Bottom of Cycle since the Motorship Courtesy of Clarkson Research 7
Longest Bottom of Cycle since the Motorship 8 Courtesy of Clarkson Research
Unprecedented Uncertainty & Risk FUEL CHOICE OR CAPITAL INVESTMENT? SOx emissions compliance Wet scrubber attractive if fuel cost & fuel consumption high & a deficit in low sulphur fuel availability NOx emissions compliance Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) dependent on vessel lifetime trading pattern & fuel availability Limited compatibility with heavy fuel oil Selective Catalytic Reducton (SCR) dependent on vessel lifetime trading pattern & fuel cost x consumption compatibility with wet SOx scrubber challenging LNG, Methanol, Gas Oil Cost x consumption compared with heavy fuel oil Fuel availability & energy density Methane slip impact on global warming 9
Technology Solutions - SOx Wet Scrubber Cost effective >10MW Little or no consumables Mature technology Low maintenance High reliability Several 100s systems in service Reduces a % of particulate Can be installed to meet just 0.5%S global cap Courtesy of EGCSA
Technology Solutions - SOx Dry Scrubber Zero water discharge Recycling ashore of absorbent material No exhaust cooling Suits downstream SCR unit Limited service experience Unlikely to meet >20MW due to system weight Currently no suppliers Courtesy of Couple Systems
Technology Solutions - SOx Membrane Scrubbing fluid separated from exhaust gas Several scrubbing fluid options No process fluid treatment required Economic for <10MW engines Modular construction New technology, little operational experience to date Courtesy of Ionada
Particle concentration, #/m3 11.5 20.5 36.5 64.9 115.5 205.4 365.2 Particle concentration, #/m3 Technology Solutions - SOx Twin Charge Electrostatic Scrubber Exhaust gas & water spray opposite charges High mass transfer coefficient Liquid/Gas ratio 1.2L/m3 ( 8.64t/MWh) 50% reduction by particle count of 50nm 150nm particles Challenge of retaining operational integrity of high voltage charge systems Undergoing joint development under EU funded project with Fincanteri etal 5.0E+11 3.0E+11 1.0E+11-1.0E+11 5.0E+11 3.0E+11 1.0E+11-1.0E+11 Before Scrubber Particle diameter, nm After Scrubber Particle diameter, nm
Technology Solutions Ship-Owners Requirements Low capital cost 3 months to 2 year payback Low operating cost savings should offset opex Zero maintenance apart from filters Fully automated no engineer intervention required Reliable 100% availability & compliance Unlikely to be attractive for ships >15yrs
Fuel Solutions NOx & SOx NOx LNG with Otto cycle dual fuel engines SOx LNG Methanol 0.5%S Diesel & HFO blend Courtesy of Wartsila Corporation Above only includes fuels that are in commercial use today
Fuel Solutions Ship-Owners Requirements Low cost Widely available Simple to use Suitable for marine application Acceptable safety risk High energy density Reliable
The 2020 Conundrum Scrubbers attractive for vessels with high fuel consumption Global installation capacity at an all time high Option to install lower cost 0.5%S scrubbers Very easy solution to 2020 compliance Virtually all sectors losing money Ballast water systems investments Age of ship at 2020 Difficulty to raise cash No benefit for early installation
Scenario 2020 Massive switch to 0.50%S resulting in $600 to $800/t diff Wood McKenzie estimate $60BN/year additional fuel cost Significant advantages for ship s with lower fuel cost Lubricant changes required for cylinder oils Shipboard reporting of non-compliance Ship s older than 15 years unattractive to trade 2020 Compliance Option Ship No LNG 200 LPG, Methanol, etc 20 0.50% S fuel 48,000 HSFO 2,000 18
Scenario 2025 Shipping industry global growth circa 2.5% New Normal gaining acceptance Scrapping of ships >15years reduces overcapacity Large order book for scrubbers & other after-treatment systems Switch back to HSFO creates changes for cylinder oils 2025 Compliance Option Ship No LNG 2,000 Methanol, et al 500 0.50% S fuel 20,000 HSFO 30,000 19
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