Efficient Electrification Initiative Update

Efficient Electrification Initiative Update NSTF Discussion Forum SE4All in South Africa April 17, 2018 Barry MacColl https://www.epri.com/#/pages/sa/us_national_electrification_assessment

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RPS Renewable Policy Standards 11

U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2017). 13

Potential annual electricity use (GWh) Electric Heavy Duty Trucks Tesla Semi Can EV technology displace a significant fraction of long distance heavy-duty trips? Tesla Semi Class 8 Tractor (preliminary) Initial range of 300 500 miles (2 kwh/mile) Estimated required usable battery pack energy of 600 1000 kwh Recharge up to 400 miles in 30 minutes Average charge rate of ~ 1.6 MW Peak charge rate would be significantly higher Overnight recharge rate of 100 200 kw Battery and powertrain durability should be sufficient with existing technology Truck and cargo info 50% of shipping ton-miles are for trips of less than 500 miles (73% less than 1,000 miles) Hours-of-service rules limit drivers to 11 hours/driving, 14 hour work day, 30 min break in first 8 hours Analysis needed to understand cost effectiveness, driving patterns, and operational impacts Cummins and other truck companies also working on EV and other technologies Hydrogen fuel cells or battery exchange could also play a role in the future 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Fast Charging Likely Required Below 100 100-249 250-499 500-749 750-999 1,000-1,499 Haul distance (miles) 1,500-2,000 Agricultural Coal and petroleum Construction Consumer products Food Industrial Metals and chemicals Other Over 2,000 Potential Truck Electricity Consumption 20

Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 23

Infrastructure Requirements and Grid Impacts How are Customer Infrastructure Requirements met? What are the service requirements? A 30-minute fast charge would be roughly twice as long as a typical fueling stop. 30 minute recharge requires 1.6 MW average. Peak charging rates (at low battery SOC) are about 2X average charge rate Current battery/charging technology for up to a 2C charge rate (2MW for a 1,000 kwh pack OEM roadmap is for 3.5C or greater by 2020 Travel Centers would need two DC fast charging stations for every fueling station A 10-lane travel center could see peak demand in excess of 30 MW Limited demand flexibility with fast charging Overnight charging at parking spaces Typical Travel Center electrical service is 500 750 kva Infrastructure buildout at company depots, distribution centers, etc. Would eliminate idling emissions, enable electrification of refrigerated cargo Sample Fast Charging Data Tesla Model S P85D Peak charge rate = 1.3C and 193% of average 25

External Electrification Analysis Efforts Electrification Futures Study Study aims to address similar issues as EPRI s National Assessment: Identification of key end-use electric technologies Impacts of widespread electrification on demand and consumption patterns Needed transformation of electricity system Role of demand-side flexibility Potential costs and benefits of electrification Results on the energy system and environmental impacts not expected until after summer into fall 2018. EPRI staff are on the external steering committee and provide electric technology data World Energy Outlook 2017 Four large-scale shifts in the global energy system: Rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies Growing electrification of energy Shift to a more services-oriented global economy Cleaner energy mix in China and the U.S. EPRI staff participate as expert reviewers on various studies; currently planning 2 joint Electrification & Decarbonization Workshops for 2018 North American Energy Trade and Integration Study Group Issues Variations in country specific energy price Greater electrification (e.g., higher electric vehicle penetration) Focus on infrastructure needs Focus on reliability and resilience High renewables penetration EPRI participates in study and leads the Electrification and Renewables issues 26