A Regional Look at the Inventories November 9-1, 9 25 MANE-VU Science and Policy Meeting Serpil Kayin, Megan Schuster, and Pat Davis
Presentation Outline Basis for selection of candidate measures Emission contribution Source apportionment Potential for additional reductions in the near-future timeframe (cost effectiveness, geographic/seasonal applicability, time frame for implementation) Where we are 22 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory Status: Data availability and summaries by pollutant, major source categories, state and regional totals, important source categories (SCCs) by pollutant, state, and regional totals, density maps, and seasonality. Where are we going? Projected future trends: 22-22 Summaries by pollutant, state, regional total and important source categories Potential non-egu controls for SO2, NOx, VOC? What do SA studies identify as the most important source categories for PM/RH?
MANE-VU 22 Modeling Inventory Version 1 of 22 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory and Summary www.marama.org click on Regional Haze, then 22 MANE-VU Inventory Summaries by state, region, pollutant, SCC, density maps, comparison with 1996 and 1999 inventories Version 2 of 22 MANE-VU Modeling Inventory available Based on updates from states (adding emissions for new SCCs, or updating old data) Projections are developed based on Version 2 Version 3 of 22 inventory will be available soon Documentation is available at the above site. TSD for SIPs will be devoped All data available: ftp.marama.org
1.2 1.8.6.4.2 22 + NESCAUM Total Annual SO2 Emissions by State Point ONROAD NONROAD Area North Carolina** Virginia** West Virginia** District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont Delaware Connecticut Millions t/y
.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 22 + NESCAUM Total Annual NOx Emissions by State Point ONROAD NONROAD Area District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont North Carolina** Virginia** West Virginia** Delaware Connecticut Millions t/y
.18.16.14.12.1.8.6.4.2 22 + NESCAUM Total Annual PM2.5 Primary Emissions by State Point ONROAD NONROAD Area District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont North Carolina** Virginia** West Virginia** Delaware Connecticut Millions t/y
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 22 + NESCAUM Total Annual VOC Emissions by State Point ONROAD NONROAD Area District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont North Carolina** Virginia** West Virginia** Delaware Connecticut Millions t/y
.2.18.16.14.12.1.8.6.4.2 22 + NESCAUM Total Annual NH3 Emissions by State Point ONROAD NONROAD Area District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont North Carolina** Virginia** West Virginia** Delaware Connecticut Millions t/y
MANE-VU Future Year Inventories (29, 212, 218) EGU sector: Worked with eastern RPOs, ran IPM with and without CAIR/CAMR Data for 29 and 218 CAIR case available for modeling 212 data will be available when requested Contract in place with ICF for further technical sensitivity and policy ( BOTW ) runs Non-EGU Point, Area, and Non-Road Growth and control packages and emission summaries available for OTB+OTW (includes CAIR/CAMR) available. Worked with states, used different methodologies for different sources (EGAS 5., NONROAD, EPA data, State data, DOE data) Contract in place with MACTEC for further work to develop inventories with BOTW controls.
MANE-VU Future Year Inventories (29, 212, 218) Mobile source inventories States submitted M6 input files and VMT data for 29, 212, and 218 NESCAUM and NY DEC QA d data and it is ready for SMOKE modeling TSD for SIPs will be developed
25 2 + NESCAUM EGU Sector Emissions 22 MANE-VU 29 CAIR RPO 21 CAIR EPA 215 CAIR EPA 218 CAIR RPO 22 CAIR EPA 15 tons/yr 1 5 NOX SO2
Comparison of EGU Sector SO2 Emissions 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 22 MANE-VU 29 Base RPO 29 With CAIR RPO 218 Base RPO 218 With CAIR RPO tons/yr 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Connecticut District of Columbia Maryland New Hampshire New York Pennslyvania Vermont West Virginia
Comparison of EGU Sector NOx Emissions 25, 22 MANE-VU 29 Base RPO 2, 29 With CAIR RPO 218 Base RPO 15, 218 With CAIR RPO tons/yr 1, 5, Connecticut District of Columbia Maryland New Hampshire New York Pennslyvania Vermont West Virginia
1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, Sector Summary for Sulfur Dioxide 22 29 212 218 Total Emissions (tpy) 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, EGUs non-egus Area NONROAD Other Nonroad on-road
Sector Summary for Oxides of Nitrogen 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 22 29 212 218 Total Emissions (tpy) 8, 6, 4, 2, EGUs non-egus Area NONROAD Other Nonroad on-road NO x
2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, Sector Summary for Volatile Organic Compounds 22 29 212 218 Total Emissions (tpy) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, EGUs non-egus Area NONROAD Other Nonroad on-road VOC
Total Emissions (tpy) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Sector Summary for Ammonia 22 29 212 218 1, 5, EGUs non-egus Area NONROAD Other Nonroad on-road NH 3
5, 45, 4, 35, Sector Summary for PM 2.5 22 29 212 218 Total Emissions (tpy 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, EGUs non-egus Area NONROAD Other Nonroad on-road PM2.5
15, 125, 1, 75, 5, 25, Area Source SO2 Emissions 22 29 212 218 Other ICI Oil HomeHeatOil HomeHeatOther ICI Coal Tons per Year
Other 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Area Source NOx Emissions 22 29 212 218 HomeHeatOil HomeHeatGas HomeHeatWood Open Burning ICI Fuel Tons per Year
Other 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Area Source VOC Emissions 22 29 212 218 HomeHeatWood Indust. Coating AIM Degreasing Consumer Prods. Fuel Transfer Waste Treatment Tons per Year
Area Source NOx Emissions by State 12, 1, 22 29 212 218 8, Tons per Year 6, 4, 2, CT DC DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT
Area Source VOC Emissions by State 1,, 9, 8, 22 29 212 218 7, Tons per Year 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, CT DC DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VT
MANE-VU Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicle Miles Travel growth Miles (1^6) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 22 29 212 218 VMT (1^6) 513,338 542,762 586,92 641,93 Year
6.E+2 5.E+2 4.E+2 3.E+2 2.E+2 1.E+2.E+ Mobile Sources (VMT) District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont VMT 2 VMT 9 VMT 12 VMT 18 Delaware Connecticut VMT Millions
On-Road NOx Emissions Distribution Aug 1 st, 12LST of year 22/29/212/218 Y22 Y29 Y218 Y212
Typical Summer Day Mobile Source NOx Emissions 22 29 212 218
1.2E+3 1.E+3 8.E+2 6.E+2 4.E+2 2.E+2.E+ Mobile Sources (NOx ( Typical Summer Day) Delaware District of Columbia Maine Maryland Massachusetts New Hampshire New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont NOx 2 NOx 9 NOx 12 NOx 18 Connecticut TPD
14 ICI Boilers (NOx: ~ 6, t/y; SO2: ~ 13, t/y) 16 Home Heating (S2: ~ 13, t/y) Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 12 1 8 6 4 Industrial--All Fuels and Commercial--LPG, Wood Kerosene Commercial--Coal, Oil, Natural Gas Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 14 12 1 8 6 4 Residual Oil Distillate Oil 2 2 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December 25 AIM (VOC: ~ 143, t/y) 8.5 Consumer Products (VOC: ~ 26, t/y) Architectual Coatings and Industrial Maintenance 8.45 Traffic Markings 2 8.4 Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 15 1 Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 8.35 8.3 8.25 8.2 8.15 5 8.1 8.5 January February March April May June July August September October November December 8 January February March April May June July August September October November December
8.55 Cutback Asphalt and Emulsifield Sealer (VOC: ~ 2, t/y) MWC ( NOx: ~ 25, t/y; SO2: ~ 3,5 t/y) Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 8.5 8.45 8.4 8.35 8.3 8.25 8.2 8.15 Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 8.1 2 8.5 1 8 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December 1 Gasoline Distribution Facilities (VOC: ~ 15, t/y) RWC (VOC: ~ 3, t/y; PM2.5: ~ 13, t/y) 25 9 Indoor 8 Outdoor 2 Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 7 6 5 4 3 Monthly % Fraction of Emissions 15 1 2 5 1 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December
Major Contributors in the MANE-VU Region 22 through 29 and 218 w/ OTB+OTW NOx ~5% Mobile % contributions remains roughly same ~2% EGUs VOC ~3% Res. Fuel Comb. % contributions remains roughly same (of which 8% wood V3 will go down) ~25% Highway-gasoline SO2 substantial decrease in % EGU contribution ~7% EGUs ~35% ~1% Industrial ~3% ~1% Residential ~35% NH3 increase in % agricultural contribution ~15% Highway-gasoline, rest agricultural PM2.5 % contributions remains roughly same ~25% EGUs and Industrial ~15% Off-highway ~1% Highway
Findings from analysis of speciated aerosol data combined with ensemble trajectory evaluations in MANE-VU Common source categories with impacts on PMfine mass concs. & visibility impairment in NE sites Windblown dust: minor contributor to avg. fine mass, with highest short term impacts from Saharan transport Sea Salt: minor contributor to fine mass, identified at coastal and near coastal sites. Significant at best visibility days at Acadia & Brigantine. Oil burning: minor contributor to fine mass, identified at many sites, within and downwind of the NE urban corridor.
Findings from analysis of speciated aerosol data combined with ensemble trajectory evaluations in MANE-VU Common source categories with impacts on PMfine mass concs. & visibility impairment in NE sites Ammonium Nitrate: a small to moderate contributor to avg fine mass, with regional influences at rural sites from upwind agricultural ammonia-emitting areas, and significant local source contributions in urban areas. Wood Smoke: a small to moderate contributor to avg fine mass, with contributions higher in rural areas, winter peaks in northern areas from residential wood burning, occasional large summer impacts at all sites from wildfires.
Findings from analysis of speciated aerosol data combined with ensemble trajectory evaluations in MANE-VU Common source categories with impacts on PMfine mass concs. & visibility impairment in NE sites Motor Vehicles & Secondary Organics: a moderate to large contributor to avg fine mass, with influence from both gasoline & diesel vehicles in urban areas; at forested rural sites, biogenic organics are likely to be more important. Coal Burning (incl. pri. aerosol and sec. aerosol formation): largest mass contributing and visibilityimpairing category at most sites, contributions primarily from utility and industrial sources in western MANE-VU, northern VISTAS and the MRPO regions.
What is next? Updates of emission summaries will be available at www.marama.org under Regional Haze. What other emission summaries are needed? A non-egu projection contract is in place. OTB+OTW and BOTW emissions are upcoming. An EGU projection contract is in place. BOTW emissions are upcoming.