RESULTS FOR Q4 216 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE
Market 1 2 Operation Financials 3
Market 1
216 Fourth Quarter Market Conditions Product Market Crude Oil Postponed Maintenances Started to take place High Agricultural Demand Normalized Seasonal Demand with El Nino fading away Industrially Driven Asian Growth and Stronger European Demand OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut FED Rate Hikes Emerging Markets Slow Down Brexit Stock levels were still higher Global Terrorism Fluctuation in currency & prices High Production of OPEC & Russia before cut / Increase in rig counts in USA 4
Key Highlights in Q4 Capacity Utilization* 1% Capacity Utilization Target has been achieved Dec Nov Oct 15 16 112 113,9 18,1 18 114,7 19,7 14 16 18 11 112 114 116 Thousand tons 15 16 Diesel sales increased by 11% 1 9 8 862 956 83 913 876 951 Diesel Sales 7 Oct Nov Dec Strong net refinery margins $/bbl 12 8 4 15 16 1,1 1,2 9,9 6,4 6,2 2,9 Net Refinery Margin Oct Nov Dec *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 5
11 Months 216 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons) Diesel Domestic Jet Fuel 216 2,38 216 1,24 +8.7 % +1.3 % 215 18,74 215 1,23 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 Gasoline,,4,8 1,2 1,6 Decline in bunker sales -5,6% Fuel Oil* 216 2,6 216,51 +7.1% -1.6 % 215 1,92 215,52,8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, 2,2,1,2,3,4,5,6 Source: EMRA *bunker excluded. 6
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl) 1 Ural Differentials, $/bbl 1-1 -2-3 -,53 -,54-1,41-1,17-1,59-1,66-1,64-1,6 -,73 -,21-1,78-1,68 -,61-1,3 -,94-1,76 -,66-2,2-1,2-1,6-1,4-2,4-1,3-1,3-1 -2-3 -4 211-214 Min/Max 215 216 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12-4 Price Differentials, $/bbl -4-8 -12 Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC 7
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl) 211-214 215 216 19,4 18,9 15,2 14,5 13,5 13,8 13, 1,9 12,8 15,7 15,2 14,6 11,2 7,9 9,2 8,9 1,8 1,1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 14,4 11,2 1,7 1,2-13,2-11,6-12, -1,6-13,1-5,7-12,5 7,3 7,7 7,9 9,4-15, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8
2 Operations
71,3 76,8 98,1 1,9 Production Capacity Utilisation* (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons) 12 1 12,5 4,4 +2,8% 15,3 4,4 8 6 6,59 5,6 6,93 6,75 7,32 7,42 7,36 7,23 5,51 8 79,1 2,4 74,9 4 4,55 4,63 5,41 3,6 6 2 Crude Oil Other Min / Max 27/214 214 215 216 4 213 214 215 216 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 33 days of operations. 1
Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons) 8 Domestic sales of selected products Diesel Gasoline Asphalt Jet Fuel 4 12 8 4 1,48 (Thousand tons) Domestic Export 4,7 1,1 1,73 5,6 1,7 3,6 3,9 2,27 6,9 1,8 5,1 1,66,43,45,46,39,23,27,43,42,76,86 1,,98 5,9 4,1 2,23,52 7,3 7,7 1,9 5,4 2,75,55,63,91,79 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,5 1,27 Diesel sales increased by %1,8 to 2.87 million tons compared to Q415. In full year, diesel sales soared by 18% Total Sales 1,3 6,4 6,4 1,5 4,9 1,8 1,16 7,9 8,1 1,2 1,2 6,8 6,9 6,1 1,8 4,3 7,9 1,7 1,3 6,2 6,4 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1,83,54 2,62 2,94,6,64 1,73,44,51,91 2,59 2,87,5,52,9,87 1,13 1,1 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7,6 11
Opet 1.8 1.5 1.2 9 1.324 1.224 1.279 1.325 1.356 526 394 Station Numbers Opet Sunpet 1.393 1.444 1.54 394 41 418 427 435 431 6 3 798 83 885 915 938 966 1.9 1.73 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Market positions as of 31th of December: White Product: 17,7% Black Product: 19,4% 12
Financials 3
Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl 12 9 6 3 4,56 2,3,3 4rd Quarter 1,6 5,17 5,5 3,84 3,54 213 214 215 216 1 8 6 4 2 12 Month 6,47 6,3 4,83 3,97 3,21 2,45 1,67 1,95 213 214 215 216 Tüpraş Net Med Complex Tüpraş Net Med Complex $ / bbl Gross Margin Inventory Effect Clean Clean Gross Margin Clean Clean NET Margin Med Margin 215 Q4 1,9 -,8 11,7 5,9 3,5 216 Q4 15, 1,2 13,8 8,9 5,1 * Hedge Operations not included 14
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q4 (FOB Italy Prices) Q4 Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl 216 215 Product Yield % 216 215 LPG 362, 364, 3,6% -17,2-11,3 Gasoline 55, 464, 2,1% 12,8 13,5 Naptha 421, 388,7 1,1% -1,9,2 Jet Fuel 468,8 417,7 17,5% 1,2 9,4 Diesel 451,2 45,5 32,5% 11,2 1,8 Diesel 1 442,4 389,7,7% 1, 8,7 Fuel Oil 1% 283,6 22,2,2% -5,7-12,5 Fuel Oil 3,5% 259,7 182,9 18,8% -9,4-15,5 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 5,6 4,6 Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 49,5 43,7 94,5% Margin Differences, $/bbl 1, Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 55,6 Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 56,9 Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL 186,6 15
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 12M (FOB Italy Prices) 12M Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl 216 215 Product Yield % 216 215 LPG 38,3 36,7 3,6% -16,2-2,3 Gasoline 462,3 557,5 2,1% 13,3 16,2 Naptha 366,6 432,9 1,1% -2,3-3,6 Jet Fuel 48,9 51,9 17,5% 8,3 11,4 Diesel 394,6 494,7 32,5% 9,3 14, Diesel 1 384,9 478,1,7% 8, 11,8 Fuel Oil 1% 222,3 269,1,2% -9,4-11, Fuel Oil 3,5% 25,2 255,4 18,8% -12,1-13,1 Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,3 6,6 Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 43,7 52,5 94,5% Margin Differences, $/bbl -2,3 Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 213,3 Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -495,6 Total Effect of Product Cracks, mn TL -1.495,5 16
Income Statement (In TL) Q4 Q4 12 M 12 M % Diff. Million TL 215 216 215 216 % Diff. 8.898,5 1.759,4 21 Net Sales 36.893 34.855-6 1.289,5 1.599,4 24 Gross Profit 4.126,4 3.649,2-12 -282,5-294, 4 Operating Expenses -877,1-995,4 13 177,2-318,6-28 Income/Loss from other operations -497,5-296,5-4 1.184,1 986,8-17 Operating Profit 2.751,8 2.357,3-14 3,6 28,9 Income/Loss from equity -6 investment 72,6 158,9 119 1.214,7 1.15,6 Operating Profit Before Fin. -16 Income/Loss 2.824 2.516-11 -139,5 845,2-76 Financial Income 862,7 1.173,9 36-28,2-965,1 3.319 Finance Expenses -1.461,8-1.746,1 19 1.47, 895,7-14 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225,4 1.944, -13 814,9 83, -1 Net Profit 2.55,2 1.793,3-3 1.27,6 1.55,4 24,7 EBITDA *(mn.tl) 3.798,9 3.396,3-1,6 1.35,7 1.337,9 29,2 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934,5 2.984,3-24,1 1.353, 1.121,5-17 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb 3.237,8 2.898,3-1,5 1.181,2 954,1-19,2 EBITDA (mn.tl)-cmb- CCS 3.373,3 2.486,3-26,3 17
Income Statement (In USD) Q4 Q4 12 M 12 M % Diff. Million USD 215 216 215 216 % Diff. 3.31 3.332 1 Net Sales 13.571 11.547-15 45 51 13 Gross Profit 1.517,8 1.28,9-2 -99-91 -8 Operating Expenses -322,6-329,8 2 71-16 Income/Loss from other -249 operations -183, -98,2-46 422 314-26 Operating Profit 1.12,2 78,9-23 11 8 Income/Loss from equity -24 investment 26,7 52,6 97 433 322 Operating Profit Before Fin. -26 Income/Loss 1.39 834-2 -6 277-561 Financial Income 317,3 388,9 23 2-312 -15.676 Finance Expenses -537,7-578,4 8 375 287-24 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 818,6 644, -21 285 256-1 Net Profit 938, 594,1-37 421,8 48,4 13,9 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397,4 1.125,1-19,5 352,2 48,6 16, EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962, -32,8 481,4 354,4-26 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb 1.191, 96,1-19,4 411,8 282,6-31,4 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb- CCS 1.226, 797, -35, 18
Profit Bridge On Tüpraş 12M Mil. TL 5. 4.5 4. 95,1 383,4 3.5 3. 823,5 1.495,5 2.5 2. 487,9 667,4 48,5 1.5 1. 2225,4 1.944, 5 Profit Before Tax in 215 Yield Difference Crude Oil Differentials Inventory Effect Total Expenditures Crack Margin Differences Pricing, FOB_CIF Diff & FX Others Profit Before Tax in 216 19
Financial Highlights (mn $) -1.955 578 551 1.34 1.994 1.869 1.598 1.663 2.452 2.577 2.748 2.37 2.258 2.391 1.751 1.729,19,3,32,24,26,35,4,11,16,22 14 1 6 2-2 715 16 361 1.397 422 1.125 56 41 48 89 EBITDA 338 294 315 415 226 237 153 78 95 79 15 15 114-27 -11 212 213 214 215 216 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Net Income 938 817 285 629 667 271 594 47 91 175 268 256 39 435 171 273 197 75 161 75 231 72 112 113 27 212 213 214 215 216 Net Debt Return on Average Equity 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3.,4,35,3,25,2,15,1,5, 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Q1 216 1H 216 9M 216 2
Balance Sheet Analysis 3,46 3,22 3,1 3,28 3,4 2,46 1,74 1,7 1,59 1,36 1,23 1,69 1,98 2,2 4 Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) 2, Receivables (Billion $) 3 2 1 2,16 1,72 1,69 1,31,641,68 1,21 1,4,82 1,4 1,64 1,59 2,45 1,72 1,6 1,2,8,4, 1,33,93,71,52,51,9,2,66 1,7,88,91,91,7,75 5 4 3 2 1 Financial Loans (Billion $) 3,7 3,4 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,9 4, 4,2 3,6 3,6 3,4,9 1,,3,3,3,4,5,6 1, 1,2 1,1 3,4,6,6,5 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3, 3,3 3,1 3, 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,9 5 4 3 2 1 Payables (Billion $) LT Loans ST Loans 21
Tüpraş Balance Sheet Million USD 31.12.216 31.12.215 Difference % Difference Current Assets 3.884 3.7 877 29 Cash & C. Equivalents 1.719 1.41 678 65 Receivables 911 882 29 3 Derivatives 1 6 3 52 Inventories 1.25 723 32 42 Pre-paid expenses 28 37-9 -25 Other Current Assets 19 317-126 -4 Long Term Assets 4.987 5.753-766 -13 Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 264 264 Fixed Assets 3.338 3.95-612 -15 Derivatives 15 86 19 22 Pre-paid expenses 68 62 6 1 Deferred Tax 917 1.11-184 -17 Other Long Term Assets 296 291 6 2 Total Assets 8.871 8.76 111 1 Short Term Liabilities 3.597 3.36 561 18 Financial Loans 556 644-87 -14 Payables 2.2 1.363 657 48 Derivatives 8 14-6 -4 Deferred Incomes 4 8-4 -45 Provisions 18 24-6 -24 Other ST Liabilities 99 984 6 1 Long Term Liabilities 2.953 2.845 17 4 Financial Loans 2.892 2.768 124 4 Payables & Provisions 59 67-8 -12 Derivatives 1 9-9 -95 Other LT Liabilities 2 1 7 Equity 2.298 2.856-558 -2 Minority Interests 22 22 1 3 Total Liabilities 8.871 8.76 111 1 22
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 216) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash 1.161 Receivables & other assets 117 Stock 988 Forward & CFH 1,83 Payables 1.92 ST Financials 426 RUP 296 LT Financials: 2,627 RUP Loans: 1,26 Eurobond: 7 Other credits 667-49 million $ *Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,426 mn $ 23
Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Capacity Utilisation Investment The average Brent price in 217 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel on average. We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4. 4,5 dollars per barrel band in 217. Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 6.25 dollars per barrel Expectations for 217; Full Capacity Utilization Production: approximately 29,2 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales: 3.6 million tons Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million USD investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity. 24
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. 25
Extras
4rd Quarter Product Yields 215 216 Coke 2,9% LPG 3,4% Other 1,4% Fuel Oil 7,% Other 4,8% Bitumen 11,5% Black Prod. 21,4% Mid. Distil. 52,3% Light Distil. 21,5% Gasoline 2,9% Naphtha,6% Jet 17,6% Coke 3,1% LPG Other 3,3% 1,2% Fuel Oil 5,% Other 4,5% Bitumen 13,1% Black Prod. 21,2% Mid. Distil. 52,8% Light Distil. 21,5% Gasoline 2,3% Naphtha 1,2% Jet 14,3% Diesel 34,6% Diesel 38,5% White Product 77.49% Production 7.33 mn ton API:3.27 White Product 77.57% Production 7.31 mn ton API:3.1 27
Product Yields 215 216 Coke 1,8% Fuel Oil 1,8% Other 5,2% Bitumen 1,7% ASRFO+Vac,4% Other 5,2% Black Prod. 23,6% Mid. Distil. 49,6% Light Distil. 21,6% Gasoline 2,6% Naphtha 1,% Jet 19,% ASRFO+Vac,3% Fuel Oil 7,2% Coke 2,5% Other 5,3% Other 5,3% Bitumen 12,4% Black Prod. 22,3% Mid. Distil. 5,4% Light Distil. 22,% Gasoline 2,9% Naphtha 1,1% Jet 16,5% Diesel 3,5% Diesel 33,9% White Product 75,43% Production 27,27 mn ton API:31,35 White Product 76,57% Production 27,93 mn ton API:3,62 28
Crude Oil (12M) Increased heavy crude supply by 14,2 % after RUP API>34 2,6% 16,6% 6,3% 41,7% 34>API >3 41,7% 41,% API<3 37,7% 42,4% 52,% 214 215 216 We are dealing with 65 trading crude oil in Med 29
Production (million tons) Middle Distillate Light Distillate 5, 4, 3, 2, 1,, 3,8 3,8 3,7 3,9 3,4 3,1 1,9 2,2 2,5 2,3 2,5 3, 2,3 2,5 1,8 2,1 2,4 2,8 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,6 2,,7,9 1,,9 1, 1,3 1,6 1,3 1, 1,3 1,3 1, Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 2, 1,5 1,,5, 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,6 1, 1, 1,2 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,5,9 1, Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Jet Diesel Gasoline Naphtha 2, 1,5 1,,5, Black Product 1,9 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,5 1,6 1,3,7 1,4 1,2,5,4,6,4,6,4,9,8,8 1, 1, 1,1,8 1, 1,1 1,,8,8,3,5,4,3,4 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 Crude Oil API 33,1 32,9 32,5 32,2 31,8 31,9 31,1 3,8 3,33,5 3,33,1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 214 215 216 3
Product Yields 6% 5% Middle Distillate 53% 52% 43% 47% 46% 46% 46% 43% 45% 51% 52% 53% 25% 2% Light Distillate 22% 21% 22% 23% 23% 21% 21% 22% 22% 23% 22% 22% 4% 3% 27% 27% 27% 26% 28% 27% 31% 35% 3% 32% 34% 39% 15% 2% 1% 21% 21% 22% 23% 22% 2% 2% 21% 22% 21% 21% 2% 1% 17% 2% 19% 17% 18% 19% 21% 18% 16% 19% 18% 14% 5% % Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Jet Diesel % Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Gasoline Naphtha 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 28% 29% 26% 26% 9% 8% 9% 12% Black Product 1% 26% 27% 7% 1% 26% 21% 21% 1% 3% 3% 9% 19% 2% 13% 11% 17% 18% 17% 14% 15% 5% 7% 21% 22% 21% 3% 3% 3% 13% 14% 13% 5% 5% 5% Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke 34,5 33,5 32,5 31,5 3,5 29,5 28,5 27,5 Crude Oil API 33,1 32,9 32,5 32,2 31,8 31,9 31,1 3,8 3,5 3,3 3,33,1 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 214 215 216 31
246 219 18 78 42 477 197 18 1.31 1.126 1.191 1.343 2.43 2.155 2.871 3.367 4.988 5.7 9.15 1.812 Sales (Thousand Tons) Domestic Sales Export Volumes 12. 215 : 22.2 mn tons 216 : 24.8 mn tons 3.5 215 : 6.4 mn tons 216 : 5.5 mn tons 3.137 1. 8. 215 216 3. 2.5 2.888 2.551 215 216 2. 6. 1.5 1.493 4. 1. 848 2. 5 349 262 456 Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other 32
Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for 216 6 Brent Crude Price TL/Dollar 56 3,54 3,54 3,57 3,52 3,47 52 5,6 49,8 51,6 55,4 3,42 3,37 48 3,32 3,27 44 3,22 4 36 3,6 39,9 36,2 3,8 4,3 3,7 41,9 3,17 3,12 3,7 3,2 32 2,97 2,92 28 2,87 24 26, 2,8 2,82 2,77 33
Trading Activities Finished Products Because of low desulfurisation margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports, ULSD imports were increased in paralel to the sales volume rise. Intermediates We have purchased HVGO + LCGO for the conversion units after RUP. Product Imports, Ton* Intermediate Imports, Ton* 1.4 1.2 1. 8 6 4 2 215 216 637 465 93112 84 1.97 49 588 1.24 23 61 3 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 671 HVGO 628 215 216 67 5 LCGO+CO 34
Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/crude $/bbl) 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,7 1,24 1,45 Gasoline 1,38 1,31 1,32 1,32 1,24 1,26 1,15 1,12 1,13 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1,14 1,29 1,23 Diesel 1,29 1,25 1,2 1,2 1,16 1,12 1,25 1,23 1,21 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 213 214 215 216 213 214 215 216 1,3 1,27 Jet Fuel 1,5 Fuel Oil 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,12 1,22 1,21 1,22 1,21 1,21 1,18 1,17 1,17 1,15 1,1 1,2,9,6,81,81,85,78,8,8,8,67,74,77,61,64 1,5,3 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 213 214 215 216 213 214 215 216 35
Inventory Effect* Analysis 215 216 $ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total 1st Quarter -35,1-35,1-7,2-9, -13,4-22,4 2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 7,1 117, 3rd Quarter -45,9-55,7-11,6 2,3 12,8 15,2 4rth Quarter -42,8-4,7-83,5 64,8 58,5 123,4 Sep -5,2,9-4,3 2,4 11,7 32,1 Nov -1,6-17,4-28,1 8,3 4,9 13,2 Dec -27, -24,2-51,1 36,2 41,9 78,1 12 Months -95,6-92,5-188,1 15,1 128, 233,1 *FX effect Included, hedging excluded 1