THE NEXT 25 YEARS: KEY CHALLENGES FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE NEW TECHNOLOGY WAVE AND OLD GLOBAL PROBLEMS Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Platform Development in Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Gurneeta Vasudeva Singh gurneeta@umn.edu IIASA YSSP: 4 Years and Beyond June 2, 217
Evolution of Alternative Fuel Vehicles China targets 5 mill EVs 22 Toyota introduces the fuel cell Mirai 215 Google tests driverless cars, Uber sets up R&D centers 216 217 Traditional cars outlawed 25 7 Toyota introduces the mass produced hybrids 2 Nissan, Tesla, BMW introduce full electric 211 12
Key Questions for Business Strategy and Policy Predicting and preparing for the nature of technological change High technology companies FAAMG spread their tentacles (media, driverless cars, artificial intelligence, retail) New entrants (e.g. Tesla, Chinese venture capital) Industry convergence Platform development in competing/complementary technologies: How are companies choosing EVs, FCVs or both organizational, competitive, regulatory and other institutional drivers? Is platform development in EVs complementary or competing with FCVs increasing returns to scale?
Institutional Variations Across Technology Alliances and Networks CountrIes and industries are characterized by diverse institutional logics (e.g. cooperative vs. competitive, open vs. closed systems) Institutional contexts shape the logics of action and learning outcomes of network participants
BUSINESS POLICY, STRATEGY AND MODELING Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles: Platform Development in Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Gurneeta Vasudeva Singh gurneeta@umn.edu IIASA YSSP: 4 Years and Beyond June 21, 217
Key Questions for Business Strategy and Policy I. How are companies choosing EVs, FCVs or both organizational, competitive, institutional drivers? II. Is platform development in BEVs and hybrid plug-ins complementary or competing with FCVs increasing returns to scale? III. How can we discern genuine commitments to alternative fuel vehicle technologies versus greenwashing?
How are companies making technological choices? Fuel cell Full electric Hybrid Natural gas Plug in hybrid Grand Total BMW 2 4 3 9 Coda 1 1 Daimler 3 3 2 8 Fiat 1 1 Fisker 1 1 Ford 1 6 2 9 Geely 1 1 GM 1 11 2 14 Honda 1 1 7 1 1 11 Hyundai 1 1 1 3 Kia 1 1 2 Mazda 1 1 Mitsubishi 1 1 Nissan 1 5 6 Subaru 1 1 Tesla 2 2 Toyota 1 1 14 1 17 VW 1 5 3 9 Grand Total 3 17 59 1 17 97 FCEV rollout plans: GM 22 launch, Nissan 22; California on road estimates: 222: 43,6; 216: 25 stations, 217: 49 stations
Plug-in Hybrid Sales Count 25 2 15 1 5 Plug in hybrid Sum of 21 Plug in hybrid Sum of 211 Plug in hybrid Sum of 212 Plug in hybrid Sum of 213 Plug in hybrid Sum of 214 Plug in hybrid Sum of 215 Plug in hybrid Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) BMW 555 3157 673 Daimler 118 545 Fisker 1 2 ZEV Modified (CARB) Ford 2374 13243 19983 17341 18969 Geely 86 165 GM 326 7671 23461 231 2115 16417 1943 Honda 526 449 64 Hyundai 15 2475 Toyota 1275 1288 13264 4191 52 VW 991 1619 5379 BMW Daimler Fisker Ford Geely GM Honda Hyundai Toyota VW
Electric Vehicle Sales Count 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 ZEV Modified (CARB) Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Full electric Sum of 21 Sum of 211 Sum of 212 Sum of 213 Sum of 214 Sum of 215 Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) BMW 671 692 1124 625 Coda 6 57 Daimler 4 47 168 943 3368 3293 196 FCA 1554 362 629 4526 3257 Ford 8 685 1738 1964 1582 75 GM 539 1145 2629 2979 Honda 93 569 47 2 Kia 359 115 1352 Mitsubishi 8 588 129 196 115 86 Nissan 19 9674 9819 2261 32 17269 165 Tesla 262 1865 16689 2541 35384 Toyota 192 196 1184 18 VW 357 4232 3189 BMW Coda Daimler FCA Ford GM Honda Kia Mitsubishi Nissan Tesla Toyota VW Linear (BMW) Linear (Nissan) Linear (Tesla)
Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales 9 ZEV Modified (CARB) Count 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell Fuel cell Sum of 213 Sum of 214 Sum of 215 Sum of 216 YTD (Oct) Toyota 72 813 Hyundai 29 38 39 Honda 1 2 2 Toyota Hyundai Honda
How Ford and GM are reinventing their business Overcoming organizational inertia and competency traps: For GM the turning point came when tiny Tesla Motors, a Silicon Valley startup, announced in 26 that it would produce a speedy electric sports car powered by those same laptop batteries. "That tore it for me," says Lutz. "If some Silicon Valley start-up can solve this equation, no one is going to tell me anymore that it's unfeasible. At Ford, under Mr. Mulally, the message was clear, industry insiders say: Ford was to unite around a common goal, returning to the basics of auto making. He sought to compel senior executive to abandon years of infighting and fiefdombuilding and pull together to develop more appealing and fuel-efficient products. Mr. Fields, by contrast has broadened the company s mission, aiming to better position the company to take on new Silicon Valley rivals, such as Tesla Motors Inc. and Alphabet Inc. s Google, looking to redefine the car business.
R&D Trends in Hydrogen and Electric GM announced it has moved 5 fuel cell engineers and scientists from the laboratory side of the company into the chain of command that actually produces cars. 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Count of All Hydrogen Patents Count of All Electric Patents
Intra-firm R&D competition 35 Even U.S. companies that only commercialize electric vehicles did more R&D in hydrogen 3 25 2 15 1 5 Count of GM Electric Patents Count of GM Hydrogen Patents Count of Ford Hydrogen Patents Count of Ford Electric Patents
Intra-firm R&D competition Japanese companies do more R&D in hydrogen 35 3 Patent Counts 25 2 15 1 5 Count of Toyota Hydrogen Count of Toyota Electric Count of Honda Hydrogen Count of Honda Electric
U.S. Electric Charging Stations 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Count of Open Year Others Count of Open Year Tesla
California Infrastructure Competition In order to support the early market development of fuel cell electric vehicles, it is important that clean transportation stakeholders in Washington experience the technology firsthand. John Zagaja, Senior Vice President of Engineering, Proton OnSite 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 25 2 15 1 5 Count of Open Year Hydrogen California Count of Open Year Electric California
FCVs the other ZEV? Price Tax Credits Cost to Drive 1 Number of miles (EPA fueling estimates) Efficiency stations Range Refueling or Recharging time Horse power Time to 6 Drag Coeff. Plug in Hybrid Hybrid Fuel Cell Electric $27,1 (217 Toyota Prius Prime) $24,685 (217 Toyota Up to $4,5 in tax rebates $2.51 133 Comb. MPGe; 54 Comb. MPG 182,878 (Public gas stations and charging stations) 167,531 54 Comb. (Public gas MPG stations) 64 miles 588 633 miles Prius) N/A $4.34 $57,5 (217 Toyota Mirai) N/A $8.3 67 MPGe 33 312 miles $37,221 (216 217 model average) Up to $7,5 $4 122 MPGe 15,464 (4,63 outlets) as of February 7, 217 119 miles < 5.5 hours with a standard plug(11/12v ); >2 hours at a public charging station (24V) 121 5 minutes refueling time 95 About 5 minutes refueling time 151 5.8 hours avg. for 22/24V; 21 hours avg. for 11/12V 12 1.9 second s*.25 1.5 second s**.24 9. second s.29 9.6 second s N/A
Laws and Incentives: ZEV States State Hydrogen Plug in Hybrids Electric CA 29 53 55 CT 6 13 14 MA 5 1 13 MD 2 1 15 ME 2 4 4 NJ 1 5 8 NY 4 9 11 OR 6 13 14 RI 4 9 11 VT 5 5 6
Scaling EV Infrastructure North American government and utilities proposals for $1.4 billion in EV charging infrastructure Volkswagen Group of America is investing $2 billion over the next 1 years in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure and awareness Chinese government targets 5 million EVs by 22, US, 3.3. million by 225, 1.5 million in CA Chinese venture capital backed EV startups like Faraday, Lucid