Alternate pathways to reduced petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions Use of Hydrogen for the Light Duty Transportation Fleet: Technology and Economic Analysis NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis Results USAEE/IAEE North American Conference September 2, 25 Peter C. Balash Economist National Energy Technology Laboratory
Disclaimer/acknowledgements I would like to thank my co-authors and colleagues: Donald Hanson, ANL Dave Schmalzer, ANL Dale Keairns, NETL John Molburg, ANL Kathy Stirling, NETL John Marano, ANL/NETL Ken Kern, NETL And other colleagues for their helpful comments along the way All views expressed are those of the authors and should not be construed to reflect the policies or views of the United States Department of Energy, the National Energy Technology Laboratory, or Argonne National Laboratory
Dedication This presentation is dedicated to the memory of John Ruether (1941-25) NETL Senior Engineer, friend, colleague, and project inspiration
Can Energy Security and Climate Concerns be Reconciled? President Bush, February 23: Reduction of Petroleum Consumption 11 million barrels per day, by 24 Reduction of Carbon Equivalent 5 million metric tons per year, by 24 NETL/ANL Study Assumption Reductions are from forecasted baseline
US Energy Consumption by Fuel 1949-225 14 12 History Projections Quadrillion Btus 1 8 6 4 2 Oil Shocks and Economic Restructuring Domestic Petroleum Petroleum Imports Coal 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 29 214 219 224 NH-Rew hydro nuclear coal NG dom NG imp. pet.dom pet imp. Source: EIA; 1948-23: Annual Energy Review 23, Table 1.3; 24-225: Annual Energy Outlook 25, Tables 1,2, and 17 Natural Gas Imports Domestic Natural Gas Non-Fossil
US GHG Emissions, 199-22 6935 Tg 22 5782 598 416 138 year 6129 Tg 199 52 643 393 91 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tg CO2 Eq. CO2 N2O CH4 HFCs PFCs and SF6 Source: EPA, 24 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table ES-2
22 US CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion, by Sector 25 72 2 299 Tg CO2 15 1 46 1729 1868 petroleum natural gas coal 5 15 267 53 169 424 126 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electricity Source: EPA, 24 Greenhouse Gas Inventory, National Inventory Tables, Table 3.3
Scenario Project Purpose Study plausible scenarios for hydrogen economy Recognition of role of petroleum complex and transportation fuels infrastructure Investigate macro role of coal-based technologies For both petroleum substitution and carbon reductions
Scenario Project Purpose, cont d Support wider DOE hydrogen economy modeling effort Initial implementation of DOE (H2A) cost estimates Respond to National Academy call for Fossil Energy Systems Analysis to study H2 economy Identify appropriate economic drivers Guide techno-economic system to optimal outcome within scenario period
NETL/ANL Scenario Analysis Target Transportation and Power Generation Enabling Technologies Hybrid-Electric Vehicles; Fuel Cells Carbon Capture and Sequestration Coal-to-Liquids (Fischer-Tropsch) Externality Charges Energy Security Premium Carbon Charge
Technical Challenges Integration of cost and performance specifications of refinery and coproduction plants with AMIGA economic model. Important for richer representation of investment choices Implementation of H2A cost estimates for technologies not yet in existence Must assume technological breakthrough in FCV case Identification of appropriate performance characteristics of advanced vehicles
Scenario Structure Uses Presidential reduction goals as drivers Reductions from future, not current, levels H2-economy based on FCV a possible means to achieving quantitative goals, not an end in itself As distinct from Academy study (24) replacement of petroleum-based light-duty vehicle fleet, or DOE H2 Posture plan (25) Focus on renewable hydrogen Recognition of scientific debate E.g. Romm (24), Shinnar (23), Demirdöven and Deutch (24)
Petroleum Target 35 Million barrels per day 35 3 25 2 15 1 21 21 28 27 31 11mmb/d reduction from AMIGA ref. implies future consumption at today s levels 5 25 225 24 AEO25 AMIGA Source: EIA AEO25 Yearly Table 11; author extrapolation; AMIGA reference run
Carbon Emissions Target 25 2151 Million Metric tons C eq. per year 2 15 1 5 1171 1169 1645 1562 1761 C target reduction from AMIGA ref. reduces C to level ~7% above today s 25 225 24 AEO25 AMIGA Ref Source: EIA AEO25 Yearly Table 18 (transport petroleum; electric power); author extrapolation; AMIGA reference run
Scale of Challenge 35 Vehicle Stock Increases 63% HEVs Millions of Vehicles 3 25 2 15 HEVs Large SUV Conv. SUV Large SUV Conv. SUV 1 Large Car Large Car 5 Small Car Small Car 25 24 Source: AMIGA Reference Run
How to Achieve Cuts Reference Case: Business as usual Oil Prices From $37/b in 21; Gas Prices from $6/mmBtu Extended Transition Hybrid-electric vehicles and Clean Hydrocarbons HEV case Coal Power/Fischer-Tropsch Co-Production Plants Hydrogen Achievement Hydrogen Production for Fuel Cell Vehicles FCV case DOE H 2 Posture Plan guidelines Clear Skies -Like Emissions Targets Energy Security Charges on premium fuels from 21 H 2 A program (DOE EE) H 2 cost data Gasification, Hydrotreating and Clean fuels Refinery Modeling Nuclear Generating Capacity Constant Carbon Charges on Electricity generation from 215 Four size categories of Hybrids; eventual Plug-Ins More stringent clean air regulations begin in California Technological breakthroughs assumed Assumptions are kept from left to right
Externality Charges 8 7 $ per metric ton C; $ per barrel oil 6 5 4 3 2 1 Model optimizes imposition of charges 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 More stringent anti-smog measures + higher fuel economy implies lower C charge for FCV case Reference Carb Ch - HEV Carb Ch - FCV ES Prem - HEV ES Prem - FCV Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Effective Oil Prices 7 Extended Transition 7 Hydrogen Achievement 6 6 5 5 $/bbl 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 World Oil Price ES charge per bbl Carb Ch per bbl Externality charges result in higher effective than nominal oil prices; Slightly higher imputed carbon and energy security charges in HEV-only case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Vehicle Stocks 3 Extended Transition 3 Hydrogen Achievement 25 25 Million vehicles 2 15 1 5 2 15 1 5 HEVs 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 FCVs ICEs HEVs ICEs HEVs FCVs Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Distribution of Vehicle Types in FCV Case Small Car CV 2% YEAR 24 Large Car CV 15% FCV 43% FCV 5% In end-period, FCVs dominate middle categories, but HEVs remain and large ICEs retain attraction Conv. SUV HEV 37% CV 17% FCV 18% Large SUV HEV 35% FCV 52% HEV 31% HEV 19% CV 63% Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs, FCV Case
Mileage, Full-size Cars, Hydrogen Achievement Miles per gallon gasoline equivalent full-size cars 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Efficiencies of competing advanced vehicles improve Large CV Large HEV Large FCV 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Reduced Petroleum Consumption 3 25 2 85% of goal met through efficiency; 15% from coal/f-t substitution 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 FT-Fuels Offset Other fuels vehicle fuels Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case Million barrels per day
Petroleum Supply Slate Extended Transition 25. Million barrels /day 2. 15. 1. Crude imports lead decline 5.. 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Domestic Oil Crude Imports NGL Net product imports Other Inputs Volume Gain
Carbon Emissions by Sector, year 24 Million metric tonnes C 25 2 15 1 584 828 65 567 485 566 536 H2 carbon Other Transport Power 5 933 728 75 reference FCV HEV Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Reductions in C, target year 24 FCV Case total: 5 MmtC HEV Case total: 537 MmtC other, 17 other, 18 Transport 343 renew, 12.4 Power 25 IGCC seq, 12.6 Transport 292 Power 228 renew, 122.6 IGCC seq, 15.4 Transportation bears larger burden of C reduction in FCV case Renewable power expansion plays bigger role in C reduction in HEV case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
C Reductions over Time Anti-Smog measures push transport sector in FCV case 4 35 3 25 2 FCV Case Million Metric Tons C 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Higher C charge pushes power sector in HEV case 35 3 25 2 Power Transport O ther HEV Case Million Metric Tons C 15 1 5 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Power Transport Other Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Total Electrical Output, Year 24 72 24 7173 Growth in energy input to transport sector increases overall generation in HEV Case 6% v. reference 4.8% v. FCV case 71 Trillion Watt Hours 7 69 68 67 66 6764 6843 65 reference FCV case HEV case Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Energy Supply Growth to Vehicles HEV Case Trillion Btus 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Growth in Energy Input to Transport Sector levels off as more efficient plug-in HEVs become prevalent 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Petroleum Grid Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs - HEV case
Coal Usage Year 24 4. 35. 3. 8.9 5.1 4.2 Quadrillion Btus 25. 2. 15. 1. 5.. 28.7 27.8 27.5 4.6.2 1.5 reference HEV FCV Old Coal Power New Coal Power FT plants Coal to H2 Existing coal generation disappears except in reference case. Advanced coal generation highest in reference case, but coal use 11-15% higher in alternative scenarios due to increased usage in FT plants and coal-to-hydrogen plants Source: AMIGA Presidential Goals Scenario Runs
Observations HEVs are more efficient relative to both conventional ICEs and H 2 FCVs than in the National Academy Study Higher carbon reduction targets would require more coal plant sequestration More reduction in petroleum in sectors other than lightduty fleet Sensitivities could include constrained oil supplies less efficient advanced vehicles higher carbon reduction targets faster development of coal technologies