Biofuels: Considerations and Potential Clarks on Univ ersi ty 5 Sep tember 2007 Len a Han se n Rocky Mou ntain Ins titu te
Understanding the Goal President Bush s goal Produce 35 billion gallons of alternative fuel by 2017 Several possible underlying motivators: Increase energy security Decrease fuel price volatility Increase sustainability
Where does a car s gasoline go? 13% tractive load 87% of the fuel energy is wasted 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Braking Resistance Engine Loss Accessory loss Rolling Resistance Aerodynamic drag Idling Loss Drivetrain Loss 6% accelerates the car, <1% moves the driver Three-fourths of the fuel use is weight-related Each unit of energy saved at the wheels saves ~7-8 units of gasoline in the tank (or ~3-4 with a hybrid) So first make the car much lighter! (safer, ~free)
The future of high efficiency vehicles Heavy trucks use 12% of all US oil Could save 65% of that for the equivalent of $0.25/gallon of diesel Move from 6.2 mpg to 11.8 mpg Airplanes can become 2-3x more efficient Could save 45% of 2025 demand for the equivalent of $0.45/gallon of jet fuel Personal cars are largest users of US oil Could save 69% of that for the equivalent of $0.46/gallon of gasoline Move from ~20 mpg to 66 mpg
After efficiency alternative supply U.S. petroleum product consumption and net petroleum imports What are the choices? 30 Total Petroleum Use Hydrogen million barrels/day 20 10 Conventional Wisdom State of the Art Net Imports Conventional Wisdom State of the Art Compressed natural gas Synthetic fuel Electricity Biofuels 1950 1975 2000 2025
How do we use transportation oil? Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook
Different types of biofuels for different needs Need: Substitute for Gasoline Substitute for Diesel Alternative: Chemical structure: Feedstocks: Ethanol Alcohol Corn, sugar, cellulose Biodiesel Oil Waste veggie oil, soy beans, jatropha, palm US production:
Current production reflects demand
Detail on: Ethanol
Types of Ethanol: not all ethanol is created equal Feedstocks Feedstock examples Conversion process Status Key Characteristics Conventional Sugar/starch Sugarcane, corn Fermentation Commercial scale Energy-intensive, competes with food State of the Art Cellulose Switchgrass, poplar Enzymatic hydrolysis, thermochemical Pilot projects Can be grown on marginal lands, potentially high yields
Market reality: biofuels must be cost-competitive Current tax exemption ends
Key drivers of cost Cost Element Feedstock Crop Cost Transportation Yield Conversion Process efficiency Total Production Cost Incentives Conventional Wisdom Corn Expensive Site specific ~7 tons grain/acre ~100-110 gal/ton $1.40/gal Cellulose? State of the Art Site specific 5 (current)-10 (target) tons/acre ~100-120 gal/ton (target) $2.50/gal (current) Production Tax Credit Research & Development Many others n/a $0.51/gal DOE grants State incentives, renewable fuel standards, fueling station incentives, etc
Detail on: Biodiesel
Types of Biodiesel Conventional State of the Art Type Waste Oil Dedicated Crops Dedicated Crops Feedstock examples Used cooking oil Soy bean oil Jatropha, palm oil, cellulose Conversion process Transesterification Transesterification Transesterification, gasification Status Commercialized Commercialized Commercialized Key Characteristics Low cost, reduces input to landfills High cost feedstock, competes with food Not established in U.S. Location Domestic Domestic International
Market reality: biofuels must be cost-competitive CCC subsidy starts EPACT subsidy ends CCC subsidy ends EPACT subsidy starts
Key drivers of cost Conversion process is well understood and reasonably inexpensive Cost is in the feedstock Oil crops generally have low yields Exceptions are tree crops like palm and jatropha Costs of these crops is unclear very few field tests in the U.S.
Non-economic factors
Benefits of Biofuels Ethanol Biodiesel CW SOA Waste CW SOA GHG reduction ~25% ~85% ~80%? ~70% ~80% Agricultural Revitalization? Jobs?? New Revenues Energy Security
Pitfalls of Biofuels Ethanol Biodiesel CW SOA Waste CW SOA Ag Impacts (toxics, soil erosion, water pollution)? Water use? Damage to Ecosystem Services & Preservation? Labor Exploitation Competition with food crops
Key Barriers to Biofuels Adoption: the biofuels value chain Agriculture Conversion Distribution End Use
Key Barriers to Biofuels Adoption: the biofuels value chain Agriculture Conversion Distribution End Use
And wait, there re more barriers Agriculture Conversion Distribution End Use
Key questions to consider Is the goal energy security, fuel price hedge, agricultural revitalization, or climate change mitigation? How much biofuel do we really need? How do you distinguish between sustainable and unsustainable biofuels? How quickly will R&D efforts progress? What policy interventions are necessary and possible?
Lena Hansen lhansen@rmi.org (970) 927-7344