Market Survey on Petroleum Products

Market Survey on Petroleum Products January 27, 2005 Masuo OHASHI Research Coordinator The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan The Oil Information Center 1

Unit: Yen/L Situations Around OIC Foundation 180 160 1st Oil Crisis 2nd Oil Crisis Gulf War 140 120 O.I.C. founded Retail Gasoline 100 80 Retail Kerosene 60 40 20 CIF Crude Oil 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 2

A Scene From The 1st. Oil Crisis Housewives scrambling for scarce supply of toilet tissues 3

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan The Oil Information Center Founded : August 1981 Objectives : To provide the general consumers with accurate information on oil industry, to avoid the likes of social confusion experienced in the past oil crises. 4

Operations of The Oil Information Center - Business Scope - Market Prices Seminars, Publications, Website Domestic Distribution Overseas Distribution The Oil Information Center is commissioned by Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI, for providing the society with information concerning petroleum on a fair and unbiased basis. Its business comprises three parts, i.e.: Market Survey to investigate market prices for petroleum products and LPGs; Public Relations to organize seminars and producing publications; Research Activities to investigate and analyze the actual state of petroleum distribution in both domestic and overseas markets. 5

Types & Objectives of Market Surveys Petroleum Products Market Survey LPG Market Survey LPG Market Survey Automotive-use LPG LPG Market Survey Provide the the consumers with with price price information on on civil-use petroleum products (gasolines, kerosene, gas gas oil), oil), in in particular as as a reference to to determine if if the the market is is adequately reflecting the the crude crude cost cost fluctuations at at a time time of of steep steep and and violent rise. rise. Provide the the consumers with with market prices prices for for home-use LPGs, LPGs, as as a reference for for price price negotiation with with and and selecting the the retail retail marketer. Provide the the price price information as as a reference for for promoting the the environmentally beneficial LPG-cars. 6

Petroleum Products Market Survey - Organization - Ministry of Economy,Trade & Industry (METI) Ministry of Economy,Trade & Industry (METI) Commission Reports The Oil Information Center - Basic Design of of Survey Program - Selection of of Data Points - Survey Administration -Publicizing Results Outsourcing System Operator (Data (Data Processing) Processing) 7

Petroleum Products Market Survey (Monthly & Weekly Surveys) - Monthly Petroleum Products Market Survey (Started - April 1987) 1. Sampling Date : 10th Day of the Month 2. Sampled from : 3,500 Points 3. Collection method : via Postcard Form 4. Results Published on : 23rd Day of the Month 5. Publication Method : Printed Reports Internet - Website - Weekly Petroleum Products Market Survey (Started Started - August 1990) 1. Sampling Date : Every Monday 2. Sampled from : 1,300 Points 3. Collection method : via Phone or FAX 4. Results Published on : Every Wednesday 5. Publication Method : Printed Reports Internet - Website 8

Survey Administration (Selection of Participating Shops) Extraction of Survey Subjects (Nation-wide: 3,500 Shops Evenly Extracted from METI Regions, Prefectures & Blocks) Sample Population (Nation-wide: 9 METI Regions, 47 Prefectures, 365 Regional Blocks, about 50,000 Shops) 9

Survey Administration (Master File & Report Format) Master File Report Format Prefecture Blocks Shop ID# Secondary Data 1. Motouri Affiliation 2. Average Monthly Sales 3. Operational Types (e.g.: Full-serve or Self-serve, Stand-alone or Combined Ops) 4. Siting Conditions 1. Premium Gasoline 2. Regular Gasoline 3. Diesel Gas Oil 4. Kerosene, Store front 5. Kerosene, Delivered 10

Survey Administration (Data Collection, Analysis, Publication) Participating Shops The Oil Information Center - Acceptance of of Survey Forms Forms and anddata Verification - Publication System Operator - Data Processing 11

Data Processing Flow Data Entry Proof-listing Data Cleansing Check by comparison Check by data limits Summary Tables 12

Data Processing (Summary Table-1) 1. Nationwide Premium Gasoline Regular Gasoline Diesel Gas Oil Kerosene, Store Front Kerosene, Delivered 2. By METI Regional Bureaus 3. By Prefectures 4. By Regional Blocks 13

Data Processing (Summary Table-2) 1. By Motouri (*) Premium Gasoline Regular Gasoline Diesel Gas Oil Kerosene, Store Front Kerosene, Delivered (*) Affiliation with integrated refiner-marketer network 2. By Monthly Sales Volume 3. By Operational Types 4. By Siting Conditions 14

Data Processing (Integration into Database) Date Blocks Prefectures Secondary Information Product-wise Information Price Data 213 months accumulated: Apr. 1987 through Jan. 2005 Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp 15