Customer Preferences & Solar PV Adoption Jen Robinson Steven Coley Nadav Enbar Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Conference October 17, 2017
The power system is changing Combined Heat and Power Demand Response Home Energy Management Rooftop Solar Electric Vehicles Distributed Solar PV Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Generation Becomes More Flexible Consumers Become Energy Producers T & D Becomes More Controllable and Resilient Power Flow Loads Become More Interactive and Dynamic A More Dynamic End-to-End Power System 2
What technology and services do customers want? What will they adopt now? In the future? Generation Planning Time distinct load and availability RPS Management Stock Load Research & Pricing Net premise load shapes Generation Operations Time distinct local load changes Adoption Drivers Preference/ Adoption Models Market Share Estimates Distribution Planning Distribution Operations Localized stock, performance Customer Solutions Marketing Localized net circuit loads Informing program design Targeting programs to customers 3
How do others predict what people want? Feb 25, 2013 4
Applying Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) to PV Characterize Part Worths : The contribution of individual drivers of preference formation Choice likelihood f { Product Features,, Demographics Premise Characteristics { Preferences Market Shares Rooftop or community Cost/Financing Supply Payments Energy Output Income Gender Age Education Structure Type Garage? Lot Size Shading 5
Survey questions are choice sets choice model QUESTION 10 Please identify which option you would prefer, whether you would actually choose that option, and if so, when you would choose it. Base your choice on the options on this page only. Characteristics Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Provider Solar Panel Company Solar Panel Company Solar Panel Company Acquisition Lease Purchase Lease to Own Location Roof Roof Roof Payment for Solar Option $139/month for 15 years $28/month for 15 years $28/month for 15 years Savings on Electricity Bill $140/month for 15 years $15/month for 25 years $15/month for 25 years Savings Minus Payment Reduction in Emissions + $180 over 15 years $540 over 25 years $540 over 25 years 60% 30% 100% Which option do you prefer? I prefer this option. I prefer this option. I prefer this option. No Yes Would you actually choose this option? How many years in the future would you choose this option? year(s) (Enter 0 if you would choose this option now) 7 6
Choice model potential market size in ST Illustrative: Statistical Model of Drivers of Choice for Rooftop Solar Service Territory Demographic Data Negative Influence Positive Influence Total Savings Total Cost Household Income is Less Than $55k Home is Less Than 1,500 Square Feet Renter Expects to move from current residence in next 5 years Black male, 35-54 Home is part of a multi-unit structure Household Income is Greater Than $100,000 Asian female, 35-54 Hispanic male, 55 and over Other race female, 55 and over White female, 55 and over Level of Emissions Reductions Home is Greater Than 3,000 Square Feet White male, 55 and over Hispanic female, 18-34 Home Owner Expects to live in current residence for at least 20 more years Early Adopter of New Technologies American Indian male, 35-54 Is concerned about future electricity prices Predictions of Rooftop Solar Potential Market Size for Service Territory 7
Simulation tool 8
Tool selection console 9
Combining adoption estimates with PV hosting capacity Better prioritize future analysis for: Operational flexibility Investment upgrades Investment deferrals Node Level PV Hosting Capacity Low HC & High Adoption High HC & High Adoption Low HC & Low Adoption High HC & Low Adoption PV Adoption Estimate 10
Together Shaping the Future of Electricity Nadav Enbar Principal Project Manager nenbar@epri.com Steven Coley Sr. Project Engineer scoley@epri.com Jen Robinson Sr. Technical Leader jrobinson@epri.com 11