Designing and financing resilient transport infrastructure Laura Frost, Arup Michael Stevns, Siemens AG, Infrastructure & Cities Sector Stephen Cook, Arup Michael Gruber, KfW siemens.com/answers
Case Study: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Stephen Cook, Arup siemens.com/answers
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Central railway station Page 4
Central bus station Page 5
80% of trips are by motorbikes Page 6
Heavy rainfall events are intensifying Maximum volume of 180 minute events, 1952-2002 Page 7
Maximum river levels are increasing Trend of maximum river level around HCMC, 1960-2006 Page 8
Rapid urbanisation exacerbates temperature rise and extreme rainfall events Maximum surface temps and Hard surface area, 1989-2006 Page 9
Climate Change and Urbanisation HCMC ranks in the top 10 cities in the world to be affected by climate change Approximately 50% of the city less than 1 metre above sea level Sea level is estimated to be around 30mm higher in 2050 than it is today. Rising temperatures: Average temperature in Vietnam could rise by 1 degree in 2050 and up to 3.6 degrees by 2100 Urban Heat Island: average temperature has increased at nearly double the rate in the surrounding Mekong Delta region. Population projected to reach 13 million by 2020 Page 10
11 November 2013 Floods, Ho Chi Minh City Credit: Tri Thuc/VNE
Planned HCMC Metro Rail Network 8 subway lines, 1 tramway, 2 monorails To connect city centre with new satellite towns Total cost 18.6 billion USD Largely ODA funded Line 1 under construction Page 12
Key issues and challenges for public transport design and operation System integration Multiple lines, multiple standards Monitoring and data Travel patterns and total flows Managing congestion Preparing for and managing the system during severe events Attracting ridership Page 13
Transport Resilience Measures System integration Integrated transport control centre Remote traffic signal control Monitoring and data Automatic asset monitoring Cameras Smart card ticketing Attracting riders Congestion charging, parking tax Smart card ticketing Bus priority lanes and signalling Page 14
Outline assessment method Establish the without scheme case Project growth in population, GDP and road traffic levels Project changes in mode split (public transport, cars, motorbikes) There will be more frequent severe weather events There will still be an organic spread of traffic information, via smartphones and existing networks. Develop the do something case Identify ITS measures and their added costs Identify avoided costs from reduced accidents, reduced journey times, reduced damage from better maintenance, more efficient system operation, reduced pollution. Identify additional revenue from enhanced ridership and other sources Page 15
Funding Resilient Infrastructure Michael Gruber, Senior Sector Economist, KfW siemens.com/answers
Discussion Moderator: Laura Frost, Arup siemens.com/answers
Framework for discussion Are cities like Ho Chi Minh ready to leap frog to a more sophisticated, higher-technology, model of operation? To whom do the costs & benefits of resilience investments accrue? How can these stakeholders be accounted for in cost-benefit assessment? How well aligned are the plans and priorities of cities and financial institutions? How could this be improved? What innovative financing/revenue capture mechanisms could work to support resilience investments in a city like Ho Chi Minh? Page 18
Thank you. Michael Stevns, Siemens, michael.stevns@siemens.com Stephen Cook, Arup, stephen.cook@arup.com siemens.com/answers