SAJF demand and supply status An update on the development and commercialization of Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuel (SAJF) Steve Csonka Executive Director, CAAFI First flight from continuous commercial production of SAJF, 10Mar 16 Fuel from AltAir Fuels, Paramount, CA (HEFA-SPK 30/70 Blend) Now being delivered to LAX fuel farm for everyone s upload 29Mar 17
Summary (from 2016 presentation) Approaching 2020 CNG aviation commitments Activity needed in next 2-3 years for SAJF to have a material impact against goal and expected carbon monetization Making progress on multiple fronts, but challenges remain Working a full range of activities targeting commercialization Opportunities to contract seed oils at large scale are pending Emerald, SG Preston, Neste, 3 April 2017 2
Observations Aviation still a committed offtaker CNG 2020 codified in international agreement at ICAO (CORSIA) Fuel coming into the system from AltAir and Neste Challenge is getting to petro price point parity - policy is still enabling Continued progress: technical, FSRL, FRL, commercial US Fuel Demand Gasoline: growth declining from 1.5% to flat Big changes over next decade? Diesel: flat (renewable displacing petroleum) Jet Fuel Surpassed 24B gpy production in 2016 < 3M gal HEFA (0.1%) 3.5+% continued traffic growth rate in US, greater abroad 3 April 2017 3
SAJF offtake agreements Beyond numerous demonstration programs neat quantities 5 M gpy from 2016 3 yr agreement 30/70 blend 3 yr agreement Enabling LAX flts 375M usg 90-180 M gpy Over 10 yrs 50 M gpy Over 10 yrs 3 M gpy each going into Bay Area, CA 3 April 2017 4
SAJF offtake agreements Beyond numerous demonstration programs neat quantities 48 A350 deliveries 10% blend 10M gpy, 10 yrs Up to 40M gal Over 5 yrs (MOU) (Bioport on demand) (Salvage MSW work?) (HBE defunct, focus on new engagement) 3 April 2017 5
Approved SAJF approved production pathways Added one in 2016 Gasification & FT (FT-SPK) Hydroprocessing F.O.G. (HEFA-SPK) Biochem sugars (HFS-SIP) FT-SPK/A ATJ-SPK 50% max blend 50% max blend 10% max blend 50% max blend 30% max blend 3 April 2017 6
Low FRL In- Process Task Forces ASTM approval pipeline Next 3 ( 17 18 approvals) have implications for lipids Refinery Co-processing 5% max incoming blend Catalytic Hydrothermolysis 50%+ max blend HEFA+ (wider-cut HEFA with HDRD) modest max blend ATJ-SPK (expansion to C2-C5 alcohols) SK/SAK (CCS - APR) ATJ-SKA 15 additional processes 3 specifically applicable to lipids 3 April 2017 7
Commercialization in-development Renewable Diesel & Jet Existing DPA Awardees Red Rock, Fulcrum Emerald AltAir Build out (~5X) Diamond Green expansion SG Preston (5 facilities in first tranche) ARA licensing and build-out UOP licensing for refinery retrofit Neste, REG, UPM, potential pivots Unlocking of renewable diesel and refinery co-processing Necessitates serious engagement with purpose grown oilseed & FOG development / expansion 3 April 2017 8
Gallons per Year (M) Commercialization intent Declared nameplate capacities: signficant opp ty Independent CAAFI assessment 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 If all addressed via oilseeds: 1.5 to 2.0 M acre/yr 1.75x more if refinery coprocessing gets traction 24 / 32 12 / 16 Production Acreage Required (million acres) at 200 / 150 gal/acre Significantly more at lower yields of some oilseeds 1,000 500 0 0 / 0 Ignores 2.5B gpy biodiesel production 3 April 2017 9
Lipid feedstocks Potentially enabling of significant production Multiple conversion processes Multiple feedstock developers Multiple producers Multiple low LUC/ILUC agribased feedstocks, plus: White Grease, Poultry Fat, Tallow UCO / Yellow Grease Brown Grease, Biosolids Easier supply chain scale-up leveraging biodiesel and HDRD production capacity Lowered H2 cost & availability (from NG) helps 3 April 2017 10 Targeting most sustainable solutions: Low, or Zero, impact LUC/ILUC & F-v-F solutions; Environmental Services a plus.
Summary SAJF a large, stable, and growing market (24B gpy US, 80B worldwide) Offtake / commercialization impeded by: Risk, lack of supply chain maturity & poor capital availability Desire for price parity, with depressed price of oil Uncertain, unstable, inequitable policy Still potentially enabled by today/tomorrow s policy Commercial aviation can offer long term contracts of significant volume, enabling financeability Potential for supply chain investment, with upside/downside sharing Aviation acknowledges that we may need to settle for having SAJF as a biorefinery byproduct, until such time as oil price, policy, other fuel markets, and technology mature Allows for very robust business-growth models for some scenarios Production from purpose grown, inedible, sustainable oilseeds (e.g. Carinata) viewed as being a big, high-potential part of the solution 3 April 2017 11
Steve Csonka Executive Director, CAAFI +1-513-800-7980 csonka.caafi.ed@gmail.com steve.csonka@caafi.org www.caafi.org
Commercial Aviation s CO2 commitments To decouple carbon growth from demand growth Biofuels a key component of GHG containment strategy 1.5% annual fuel efficiency improvements CNG 2020 These 3 industry commitments are currently being converted into regulation through an ICAO/CAEP basket of measures : CO2 Standards MBMs will monetize carbon Similar commitment from BizAv & DOD 3 April 2017 13