SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR EV BATTERY TOM ZHAO Managing Director
What are WE facing today? What can BYD do? What can WE do more?
LFP vs NCM WHAT ARE WE FACING TODAY? LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market BYD ED Roadmap Rapid Growth of Lithium-ion Battery Cobalt price increased by leaps and bounds
LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market EV NMC (811) 25% NCA 10% NMC (111) 15% NMC (622) 30% NMC (433) 10% NMC (532) 10% LMO NCA LFP NMC (111) NMC (433) NMC (532) NMC (622) NMC (811) 2016 2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LFP & NMC is the mainstream of the market Storage 2016 2017-2030 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
LFP vs NMC LFP NMC Cost Cost Cost Cost Discharge C-rate E-density Wh/l Discharge C-rate E-density Wh/l Discharge C-rate E-density Wh/l Discharge C-rate E-density Wh/l Cycle life E-density Wh/kg Cycle life E-density Wh/kg Safety Safety Safety Safety Cycle life E-density Wh/kg Cycle life E-density Wh/kg Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Rapid Growth of Lithium-ion Battery Annual GWh 1,400 Electric vehicles 1,200 1,000 800 Consumer goods 600 400 200 0 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Stationary storage Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Assumes 100% of stationary is lithium-ion.
Cobalt would meet shortage sometime later Cobalt market (metric ton/year) 450,000 400,000 Demand Other Demand Storage 350,000 300,000 250,000 Demand CE Demand E-Bus 200,000 Demand EV 150,000 100,000 Historic supply 50,000 Future supply 0 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, press releases, Avicenne, USGS, IDTechEX, Wealthdaily Note: CE refers to consumer electronics, E-bus refers to electric buses
Cobalt Price increased more than 3 times in one year USD/pound Cobalt 99.8% Cobalt 99.3% Source: cbcie.com
Cobalt is the most fluctuations factor for NMC battery Percentage change in commodity price (%) -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Lithium -0.5% -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% -0.8% Cobalt -3.0% -1.7% 0.8%1.7% 3.3% 6.7% 10.0% Nickel -1.0% -0.6% -0.3% 0.3%0.6% 1.1% 2.2% 3.4% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Manganese Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: NMC chemistry modelled here is NMC (111). NMC battery pack cost is $223/kWh.
LFP vs NCM BYD WHAT CAN DO?
BYD Strategy Technology Upgrading on NMC Repurpose & Recycling Strong Tech. Backup-LFP
Technology Upgrading on NMC Repurpose & Recycling Strong Tech. Backup-LFP
Forecast mass of used batteries coming out of electric vehicles Unit:tonne 350,000 300,000 311,000 tonne = 25GWH 250,000 200,000 150,000 Battery Data 100,000 50,000 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Notes: ONLY EV Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Battery Repurpose & Recycling Cell Material Other Uses Cell Module Cell Recycle Repurpose xev Battery System Module
Repurpose - Energy Storage (Utility Scale) Baolong, Shenzhen Capacity:15MW/30MWH Area:1800 m2 Working Condition:3 cycle/day 0.5C Operating time:1700+cycles SOC range: 10%-100% Changsha Plant Capacity: 10MW/22.6MWH Area: 2500 m2 Working Condition: 2 cycle/day 0.3C Under Construction
Repurpose - Communication Base Station Capacity: 48V/150Ah, Load: 70A Capacity: 48V/600Ah Load: 60A
Repurpose - AGV AGV (Automatic Guided Vehicle) Capacity:12V/150Ah ;24V/150Ah
Raw Material Recycling Battery disassembling take 3 steps 3.Regeneration Graphite removing impurity, cladding, regeneration and activation Lithium iron phosphate regeneration: lithium extraction, precursor preparation NMC elements extraction and regeneration 2. Material Recycling Graphite elution, copper foil recycling. The positive material desorption, aluminum foil recycling 1.Disassembling Battery disassembling automatically Separation of battery components Positive &negative plate drying & deodorization.
Raw Material Recycling 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 85% 85% 95% 95% 98% 98% Manga Nickel Aluminu Copper Lithium Manganese nese Nickel Aluminum m Copper Lithium Cobalt Cobalt Graphite Graphite
Gap in the Future Notes: 1.supposed battery Recycling volume equal battery used volume that year 2. supposed 24 kwh battery contains 10 kg cobalt 3. supposed 24kwh battery equal 0.29 tonnes 4. supposed cobalt recycling rate is 95% cobalt new supply Cobalt supply from recycling used batteries
Technology Upgrading on NMC Repurpose & Recycling Strong Tech. Backup -LFP
Chinese Government Subsidy Policy Item 2017 China national subsidy standards 2018 China national subsidy standards Change Remark Recharge Mileage 100 R<150 20 / / 150 R<250 36 R 250 44 Cancel subsidies 150 R<200 15-58.3% 200 R<250 24-33.3% 250 R<300 34-22.7% 300 R<400 45 2.2% R 400 50 13.6% 1.More detailed grading, from three Levels to five Levels. 2.The threshold of recharge mileage increased to 150 km. Source: VehicleTrend
Driving Demand 80km /day *5 days=400 km is enough for daily driving One Week Drive without Additional Charge Zero Range Anxiety for 400KM
BYD EV Recharge Mileage
LFP vs NCM WHAT CAN WE DO MORE ON LFP?
BYD Commercial Vehicle
BYD Skyrail
BYD Energy Storage
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