UPM FINANCIAL STATEMENTS RELEASE 217 Jussi Pesonen President and CEO 31 January 218
Q4 217 Excellent finish to the record-strong year 217 Comparable EBIT increased by 29% to EUR 366m (283m) EURm 4 Comparable EBIT 366 Operating cash flow was EUR 47m (45m) Net debt decreased to EUR 174m (1,131m) 35 3 283 Agreement with the Government of Uruguay on local prerequisites for a possible pulp mill Started basic engineering study of a possible biochemicals refinery 25 2 15 Announced focused growth projects in Plywood and Specialty Papers 1 5 Kymi pulp mill expansion and the Raflatac expansion in Poland were completed 2 UPM
Q4 217 Strong market environment UPM BIOREFINING Good demand, pulp deliveries +6%, strong growth in biofuels Pulp prices higher UPM Kymi pulp mill investment shutdown UPM SPECIALTY PAPERS Good demand, deliveries flat Significant progress in product mix, higher release liner deliveries Input cost increases mitigated UPM PAPER ENA Graphic paper deliveries -4% Newsprint contract manufacturing at the Schwedt mill ended Fibre costs higher UPM RAFLATAC Good demand globally, deliveries +6% driven in particular by developing markets Input cost increases impacted sales margins UPM ENERGY Electricity deliveries +4% Hydropower generation increased above normal level UPM PLYWOOD Good demand, deliveries +11% Modest input cost increases impacted sales margins 3 UPM
Comparable EBIT by business area EURm 18 UPM Biorefining % of sales 3 EURm 12 UPM Energy % of sales 6 EURm 12 UPM Paper ENA % of sales 12 15 25 1 5 1 1 12 2 8 4 8 8 9 15 6 3 6 6 6 1 4 2 4 4 3 5 2 1 2 2-2 -2 EURm 5 UPM Specialty Papers % of sales EURm UPM Raflatac % of sales 12,5 5 12,5 EURm 25 UPM Plywood % of sales 2 4 1 4 1 2 16 3 7,5 3 7,5 15 12 2 5 2 5 1 8 1 2,5 1 2,5 5 4 4 UPM
Comparable EBIT in Q4 217 vs. Q4 216 EURm 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Prices increased more than variable costs. Growth in deliveries. Less maintenance. Currencies had a negative impact. 283 11.4% Prices Deliveries Fixed costs Variable costs Currency, net impact Depr., forests, plantations 366 14.2% EURm Pulp prices and deliveries increased in Biorefining. Good deliveries and successfully offset input cost increases in other businesses. 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 283 11.4% Biorefining Energy Raflatac Specialty Papers Paper ENA Plywood Other operations and eliminations 366 14.2% Q4/16 Q4/17 Q4/16 Q4/17 5 UPM
217 strong performance continued through a turn in input costs environment 217 vs. 216: Sales EUR 1,1m 2% EBITDA EUR 1,631m +71m Comparable EBIT EUR 1,292m +149m Comparable EPS EUR 1.88 +.23 Comparable ROE 11.9% +1.pp Operating cash flow EUR 1,558m -128m Net debt EUR 174m -957m Net debt / EBITDA.11x -.62x 6 UPM
Business area long-term targets compared with realised returns 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 UPM Energy ROCE % * ) 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 UPM Biorefining ROCE % UPM Specialty Papers 3 ROCE % 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 UPM Paper ENA FCF/CE % 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 UPM Plywood ROCE % 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 UPM Raflatac ROCE % * ) shareholdings in UPM Energy valued at fair value Long-term return target 7 UPM
Group financial performance EURm 1 4 Comparable EBIT % Comparable ROE 14 Net debt EURm 4 5 Net debt and leverage Net debt/ EBITDA (x) 3, 1 2 Target: EBIT growth 12 Target: 1% 3 75 2,5 1 8 1 8 3 Policy: 2x 2, 2 25 1,5 6 6 4 4 1 5 1, 2 2 75,5 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 211 212 213 214 215 216 217, 8 UPM Comparable figures for 214 217, excluding special items for earlier years
Outlook for 218 9 UPM UPM reached record earnings in 217. Fundamentals for UPM businesses in 218 continue to be favourable. Healthy demand growth is expected to continue for most of UPM s businesses in 218, while modest demand decline is expected to continue for UPM Paper ENA. Sales prices are expected to increase in most of UPM s businesses, compared with 217. Input costs are expected to continue increasing in 218, compared with 217. UPM will continue measures to reduce fixed and variable costs to mitigate this. 218 starts with less favourable currencies than 217. Q1 218 results are expected to be impacted by temporary wood harvesting limitations in Northern Europe caused by unusually warm and wet weather in late 217 and the beginning of 218.
Strong cash flow and balance sheet EURm 1 8 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 Free cash flow Operating cash flow 1,558 Net debt EURm 3 5 3 2 5 2 Net debt Net debt / EBITDA (trailing12 months) 3,5 3, 2,5 Net debt / EBITDA 2, 8 1 5 1,5 6 4 2 Operating cash flow 212 213 214 215 216 217 1 5 1, 174 Net debt,5.11x, 212 213 214 215 216 217 1 UPM
Dividend proposal: 21% increase EUR per share 1,4 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2 % of operating cash flow per share 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Dividend policy UPM aims to pay an attractive dividend, 3 4% of operating cash flow per share Dividend proposal for 217 EUR 1.15 (.95) per share, totalling EUR 613m 39% of 217 operating cash flow, 212 213 214 215 216 217 11 UPM
5-year cumulative cash flow (213-217) disciplined capital allocation in action Strong operating cash flow EUR 6.4bn Focused investments EUR 1.9bn Deleveraging Attractive dividend EUR 2.6bn EUR 1.9bn Industry-leading balance sheet Net debt /EBITDA.11x 12 UPM
Aiming higher with continued transformation and earnings growth Performance focus continues, supported by continuous improvement culture and innovation Attractive shareholder distribution Capital allocation to growth, maintaining high standards for return requirements. Attractive focused growth investments and selected transformative projects Maintain headroom in our strong balance sheet 13 UPM
UPM current investment portfolio for earnings growth Focused growth projects Completed in Q4/17 Kymi pulp mill expansion, Finland Raflatac expansion, Poland Construction stage Kaukas pulp mill expansion, Finland Raflatac expansion, Finland Jämsänkoski label papers expansion, Finland Chudovo plywood mill expansion, Russia Feasibility study Nordland PM2 conversion from fine papers to label papers, Germany Transformative prospects Possible new pulp mill, Uruguay UPM and the Government of Uruguay signed an agreement on local prerequisites for a possible new pulp mill. Infrastructure projects and the preengineering of the mill in progress. Biomolecules businesses Basic engineering study started regarding a potential industrial-scale biochemicals refinery, Germany Exploring next steps in biofuels 14 UPM
Establishing a competitive operating platform in Uruguay Current operations Uruguay prospect Plantation base in West Uruguay Fray Bentos pulp mill 1.3 million tonnes ~1 km of river barging for outbound logistics Sea port in Nueva Palmira loading half vessels Ocean vessels to pulp markets Plantation base in Central and North Eastern Uruguay Potential new pulp mill about 2 million tonnes, on-site investment estimate EUR 2bn Railway with high technical standards Deep sea port in Montevideo loading full vessels Ocean vessels to pulp markets 15 UPM
Potential pulp mill in Uruguay could be a competitive alternative time schedule is several years The ongoing second preparation phase is expected to take 1.5 2 years Investment Agreement signed Potential UPM Investment Decision Phase I Phase II Phase III 16 UPM
Illustrative capital allocation ( * for next 5 years, assuming the Uruguay pulp mill investment Performance focus Strong cash flow Attractive dividend EUR ~3-4bn Industry-leading balance sheet High return investments EUR ~3-4bn Net debt /EBITDA < 2x Maintain headroom 17 UPM ( * This is not a forecast
Summary UPM reached record earnings in 217. Fundamentals for UPM businesses in 218 continue to be favourable. UPM is in better standing than ever. The company has strong businesses and a portfolio of attractive growth opportunities. In the coming years, UPM can: allocate more capital to growing and transforming the company increase the distribution to the shareholders maintain headroom in the strong balance sheet The Board proposes a dividend increase of 21% 18 UPM
Comparable EBIT in 217 vs. 216 EURm 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 8 6 4 2 Prices and variable costs increased. Growth in deliveries. Less maintenance. Currencies had a negative impact. 1,143 11.6% Prices Deliveries Fixed costs Variable costs Currency, net impact Depr., forests, plantations 1,292 12.9% EURm 1 6 Pulp prices and deliveries increased, biofuels improved in Biorefining. Good deliveries and input cost mitigation in other businesses. 1 4 1 2 1 8 6 4 2 1,143 11.6% Biorefining Energy Raflatac Specialty Papers Paper ENA Plywood Other operations and eliminations 1,292 12.9% 216 217 216 217 2 UPM
Low investment needs in existing assets allow growth projects with modest total capex EURm 1 2 Capital expenditure Estimate 1 8 Myllykoski acquisition 6 Uruguay acquisition Depreciation 4 Strategic investments 33 35 2 Operational investments 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218E 21 UPM
UPM s main currency exposures Key currency exposures USD, GBP and JPY Policy to hedge an average of 5% of the estimated net currency cash flow for the next 12 months Estimated annual foreign currency net cash flow, before hedging USD GBP JPY Others EURm 81 37 2 22 22 UPM
Timing of significant maintenance shutdowns Timing of significant maintenance shutdowns Timing Q2 17 Q4 17 Q2 18 Q4 18 Unit Pietarsaari pulp mill Olkiluoto nuclear power plant Kymi pulp mill Fray Bentos pulp mill Kaukas pulp mill Lappeenranta biorefinery Olkiluoto nuclear power plant Pietarsaari pulp mill Maintenance shutdowns impact Maintenance costs Production volumes Operational efficiency Excluding the impact of larger maintenance shutdowns, there is a seasonal pattern in UPM s fixed costs, partly related to other maintenance activity Q1, Q3 fixed costs below annual average Q2, Q4 fixed costs above annual average 23 UPM
Maturity profile and liquidity Liquidity Committed credit facilities Liquidity on 31 December 217 was EUR 1.4bn (cash and unused credit facilities) Bilateral committed credit facilities EUR 657 million for general financing purposes EURm 8 Maturity profile of outstanding debt EURm 8 Committed credit facilities maturities 6 6 4 4 2 2 24 UPM
UPM Biorefining Demand-supply drivers of pulp market 25 UPM Demand Supply Short term Re- and destocking of inventories Maintenance stoppages Production issues End use demand Capacity closures Conversions New mill starts Debottleneck investments Sustainable, renewable and recyclable Food product safety Replacing plastics Decline of graphic paper production and scarcity of recycled fibre Long term Population growth Urbanisation Middle class expansion Aging demography Availability of competitive mill locations E-commerce Plantations, sustainable wood raw material Water availability Infrastructure
UPM Biorefining Chemical pulp market EUR/tonne 9 Pulp market prices, EUR USD/tonne 11 Pulp market prices, USD 8 1 9 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 BHKP, Europe, EUR BHKP, China, EUR NBSK, Europe, EUR NBSK, China, EUR BHKP, Europe BHKP, China NBSK, Europe NBSK, China 26 UPM Sources: FOEX Indexes Ltd, ECB
UPM Energy Cost efficient generation enables robust profitability in challenging market environment MWh Market electricity prices vs UPM sales price 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 Helsinki Front Year System Front Year UPM average sales price UPM Energy profitability 212 213 214 215 216 217 Comparable EBIT, EURm 217 186 22 181 116 91 % of sales 45. 39.9 43.5 43.6 32.7 28.8 27 UPM
Graphic paper prices EUR/t 1 Europe USD/t 11 North America USD/t 12 China 9 1 11 8 9 1 9 7 8 8 6 7 7 5 6 6 4 5 5 News SC LWC WFC WFU News SC LWC WFC WFU WFC r (1% chemical pulp) Uncoated Woodfree Reels (1% chemical pulp) Sources: PPI, RISI 28 UPM
UPM Paper ENA Paper price vs. cash cost of marginal cost producer EUR/t Price Cash cost of a marginal producer 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 29 UPM Sources: PPI, RISI, Pöyry