Electricity sector resilience Sara Walker
What s the big deal? 1. GROWTH in world energy consumption 2. Climate Change Global: UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and the most recent COP17 Europe: 20 20 20 UK: Climate Change Act 2008, 30% of UK electricity it from renewable energy sources by 2020 3. Security of OPEC supply Trans European energy networks UK growth in imports
What s the big deal? 3. Securityof Oil net exporters (2009) supply Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Islamic Republic of Iran Nigeria United Arab Emirates Iraq Angola Norway Venezuela Kuwait Others
What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Gas net exporters (2010) Russian Federation Norway Qatar Canada Algeria Indonesia Netherlands Malaysia Turkmenistan Nigeria Others
What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Coal net exporters (2010) Australia Indonesia Russian Federation Colombia South Africa United States Kazakhstan Canada Vietnam Mongolia Others
What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Source: DECC (2011) UK Energy in Brief. London: DECC.
What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Closing of at least 22GW (about a quarter of generating capacity) by 2020 2.5billion infrastructure investment by National Grid through Electricity Alliance, 2007 20122012
What s the big deal? 4. Ageing 100000 infrastructure 90000 UKinstalledelectricitygeneration electricity capacity 80000 (MW) d plant capacity UK installe 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 Renewables other than hydro and wind Wind Pumped storage Natural flow Gas turbines and oil engines Nuclear stations Combined cycle gas turbine stations Conventional steam stations 10000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year
What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Capital expenditure (actual and allowance) for all GB distribution network operators. Capital expe enditure ( m 200 07 08 equivalent) )1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 Year allowance expenditure
What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Capital expenditure (actual) for all GB Transmission System Owners Capital expend diture ( m) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 Year NGET SPT SHETL
Where are we now regarding security? 1. Capacity margins General target 20% Fell to 16.5% in 2003/04 16% in 2009 Predicted to fall as low as 5% in 2020 under BAU
Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance N 1 and Security and Quality of Supply Standards Customer Interruptions (CIs) and Customer Minutes Lost (CMLs)
Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance: Percentage of CI at a given network voltage level, one Distribution Network Operator.
Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance: Percentage of CML at a given network voltage level, one Distribution Network Operator.
Where are we now regarding security? 3. Diversity Herfindahl Hirschmann index (mean=3029 for UK 2006 2010) HHI I = i= 1 2 p i Shanon Weiner index (mean=1.40 for UK 2006 2010) SW = p ( ) i Ln p i I i= 1
Where are we now regarding security? 4. Terrorism Threat of terrorist attack on critical infrastructure 1.5% of world terrorist incidents from 1998 to 2007 had targeted energy infrastructure UK priority risks are international terrorism, cyber attack, major accident or natural hazard, and an international ti military crisis ii
What can resilience bring to the table? 1. A new definition of a healthy system. Following the occurrence of a secured event on the onshore transmission system, measures shall be taken to re secure the system to the above operational criteria as soon as reasonably practicable. (National Grid, 2011) The system s ability to reduce efficiently i both ththe magnitude and duration of deviation from target system performance levels. (Vugrin et al, 2011) The perception is the need to maintain the status quo. The system performance measures become the goal.
What can resilience bring to the table? Resilience as a concept accepts that a system may, following short term shock or long term stress, move to a new equilibrium. Ecology type view ofresilience resilience. Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks Walker et al, 2004
What can resilience bring to the table?
What can resilience bring to the table? 2. Flexibility of scale Capacity margins, N 1 performance, customer interruptions, customer minutes lost, diversity measures and terrorism risks focus primarily on the hardware of a system and security of SUPPLY. Resilience based around a socio technical scenario approach can encompass a richer scale, including the landscape within which the system sits, linkages to other systems, the system personnel, system users, system processes, as well as system hardware and software.
What can resilience bring to the table? 2. Flexibility of scale Source:DECC
What can resilience bring to the table? 3. Resilience of what and for whom? Power relations Electricity consumption per capita, 2009 Cultural values Equity 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 000 10,000 Per capita electricity consumption (kwh) Benin Sudan Kenya Ghana Sri Lanka Morocco Iraq Mexico Brazil China Venezuela Chile Libya South Africa UK Russia Israel Germany Saudi Arabia France Japan Bahrain New Zealand Australia USA Sweden Qatar Canada Kuwait Iceland Country
In summary Previous measures of security have been supply side focussed Capacity margins, N 1 system performance, customer interruptions, customer minutes lost, and Shannon Weiner type indices allfocus onsupply and the wires sections of the electricity sector Resilience as a concept allows us to rethink the definition of a working electricity sector, to consider the context within which the system sits, and to better understand the context of power, culture and equity which frames the scope of human action
Sara Walker sara.walker@northumbria.ac.uk ac uk Tel 44 (0) 191 2273286 twitter.com/sarawalker22 http://uk.linkedin.com/pub/sara com/pub/sara walker/19/286/b23