THE CITIES OF THE FUTURE SMART WAY TO MOVE PEOPLE THE FUTURE OF CARS AND THE IDEAS OF FLEXIBLE CONGESTION RIGHT LONDON 16th October 2012 FRANCESCO GRILLO & JEANNE LAPERROUZE www.visionwebsite.eu Agenda THE CITY OF THE FUTURE 1. THE CITY OF THE FUTURE 2. THE PAY AS YOU POLLUTE PRINCIPLE: THE KYOTO OF THE CITIES CHANGE 3. THE CITY OF THE FUTURE FRAMEWORK 4. TENTATIVE TIMELINE THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY 5. THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY FRAMEWORK 6. THE PARADOXES OF THE CAR 7. THE FUTURE OF THE CAR INDUSTRY 8. SMART STRAGIES 9. INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE 10. THE FLEXIBLE CONGESTION RIGHTS
THE CITY OF THE FUTURE AND.... BACK TO THE FUTURE
MAIN AREAS IN ORDER TO DEVELOP POST KYOTO CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND PARTNERSHIPS ICT SMART HOUSES POST WASTE SOCIETY EFFICIENT MOBILITY BOTTOM UP ENERGY AND SMART GRID EVERY DAY DEMOCRACY INDUSTRY THE RISE OF CITIES Number of cities (10,000 inhabitants and above) 1700 1750 1800 1870 1 Scandinavia 3 3 7 21 2 England (Wales) 11 22 57 147 3 Scotland 3 7 14 23 4 Ireland 3 3 8 15 5 Netherlands 20 18 19 29 6 Belgium 13 14 20 45 7 France 62 63 88 161 8a Italy CN 34 40 51 66 8b Italy SI 32 49 75 136 9 Spain 25 30 60 107 10 Portugal 2 4 3 14 11 Switzerland 3 4 4 11 12 Austria (Hungary) 10 18 31 98 13 Germany 34 38 64 222 14 Poland 4 5 5 18 15 Balkans 20 24 43 65 16 Russia (European) 8 19 36 121 EUROPE 287 361 585 1,299 Source: Dizionario Geografia Antica Moderna, Francesco Predari, 1871 Cities with more than 10 million people Source: UN 0 in 1990 2 in 1970 23 in 2011 37 in 2015 Cities occupy 2% of the land; host 50% on world population; produce 80% of GDP and produce 70% of CO2 emissions Source: UN, 2010
THE END OF THE NEVERENDING STORY Top 10 European Cities Population 1990/1991 Population 2011/2012 Growth rate London 6.83 8.17 19.7% Berlin 3.47 3.50 1.0% Madrid d 3.01 3.28 9.1% Rome 2.78 2.80 0.9% Paris 2.15 2.11 1.8% Hambourg 1.69 1.80 6.7% Budapest 2.02 1.74 13.7% Vienna 1.54 1.73 12.4% Warsaw 1.66 1.70 2.7% Bucharest 2.11 1.68 20.4% TOTAL top ten cities 27.24 28.52 4.7% TOTAL EU 27 473 539 14.0% THE THEORY (NEW ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY,..) ECONOMIES OF SCALE (AND COMPETITION) CONGESTION (AND POLLUTION) COST
PAY AS YOU CONGEST AND POLLUTE (1) BEHAVIOR CHANGING OPTIONS BAN (APPARENTLY MORE EQUITABLE AND EASIER TO DESIGN) INCENTIVES (FLEXIBILITY, RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENTS) PAY AS YOU CONGEST AND POLLUTE (2) COUNTRIES CITIES PEOPLE (AND FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES)
MAIN AREAS IN ORDER TO DEVELOP POST KYOTO CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND PARTNERSHIPS ICT SMART HOUSES POST WASTE SOCIETY EFFICIENT MOBILITY BOTTOM UP ENERGY AND SMART GRID EVERY DAY DEMOCRACY INDUSTRY TENTATIVE TIMELINE Intelligent mobility and Every Day Democracy: (Berlin, July 2013) Post waste management and Global Governance(Naples, April 2013) Eco cities and internet energy (Tel Aviv, October 2013)
THE T REX OF THE XXTH CENTURY (1901)....AND THE CAR OF THE FUTURE (1903)
THE COST OF CONGESTION PER CITY (2007 2008) Congestion: 27 billion per year for 8,5 million people. 2007 5.507 5.408 2.394 2.355 786 1.397 1358 1.358 1.364 1.070 1.333 1.198 1.020 1.141 755 2008 10.277 10.345 2.353 2.361 712 709 A VISION AND VALUE STUDY ON THE TOP 10 ITALIAN CITIES: Average distance Average speed Fuel consumption Average carbon emission Number of car per inhabitant Average time spent in congestion* bari bologna firenze genova milano napoli palermo roma torino venezia * Percentage of time spent in car driving below 30km/h Source: Vision & Value, based on Octotelematic, ACI, MISE, ICE, and Eurostat data THE COST OF CONGESTION PER CITIZEN Cost of congestion per citizen per year (Euro, 2007 2008) Source: Vision & Value, based on Octotelematic, ACI, MISE, ICE, and Eurostat data
Demand THE LEVERS Intelligent vehicles Green and Smart vehicles Regenerative brakes Bicycles Driverless car Adressing congestion Matching demand and supply Intelligent traffic management Parking pricing Smart car sharing system Flexible congestion rights supply Intelligent infrastructures Diversification of public transport Charging station Intelligent parking Maglev technology 190 below 50 years old CHANGE IN NUMBER OF CARS (MIO) 350 20 10 340 60 44 BRICS (and 23 China) 708 308 Core = USA, Japan, 5 Big EU Cars rest of the world 2006 Cars 2006 Change 15 50 age bracket Change above 50 Source: Vision estimates based on Ward s Automotive Groups Cars core 2010 Change rest of the world Cars 2010
100 DRIVING LICENCE (USA) 90 80 70 60 50 40 1983 2010 30 20 10 0 16 17 18 19 20 24 25 29 30 34 35 39 40 44 45 49 50 54 55 59 60 64 65 69 70+ Source: The Economist THE CHALLENGE TO THE CAR 1. WHY DO HUMANS USE A 1 + TON VEHICLE TO MOVER 70 KG OF HUMAN BEING MEAT AROUND? 2. WHY DO HUMANS CONTINUE TO USE FOSSIL ENERGY TO POWER THE VEHICLE WHEN THEY COULD SPEND BETWEEN 90 AND 80 % LESS BY USING OTHER FORM OF ENERGY? 3. WHY THEN SUCH VEHICLES RESULT UNUSED FOR 90% OF THEIR LIFE?
SMARTER CARS 1. WHY DO HUMANS USE A 1 + TON VEHICLETOMOVE70KGOFHUMAN OF HUMAN BEING MEAT AROUND? 2. WHY DO HUMANS CONTINUE TO USE FOSSIL ENERGY TO FEED THE VEHICLE WHEN THEY COULD SPEND BETWEEN 90 AND 80 % LESS BY USING OTHER FORM OF ENERGY? 3. WHY THEN SUCH VEHICLES RESULT UNUSED FOR 90% OF THEIR LIFE? 1. SMALLER CARS? 2. ELECTRIC CARS? 3. CARS SHARING? SMARTER CITIES 1. BYCICLES 1. RESERVED LANES, 2. DRIVELESS CARS 2. INTERACTIVE ROAD 3. ELECTRIC CARS 4. CONGEST AND POLLUTE POLICIES 3. DISTRIBUTION 4. PARKING, CONGESTION CHARGE INFRASTRUCTURE
THE FLEXIBLE CONGESTION RIGHTS The price should reflect: The h characteritics i of vehicles (dimension, consumption, footprint) The timing (peak hour, night, holydays) The place (distance from congested area) Trip: duration of the journey THE WAY FORWARD 1. MEASURE THE PROBLEM 2. ENCOURAGE DIVERSITY 3. TRY CONGEST AND POLLUTE PAY MECHANISMS (FCR) 4. PUT TOGETHER THE FOUR QUADS FOR INNOVATION TO HAPPEN POLICY INDUSTRY RESEARCH OPINION MAKING
WWWVISIONWEBSITE WWW.VISIONWEBSITE.EUEU