INVESTOR PRESENTATION 16 March 2016
Company 02 Overview 01 Refining Industry Key 04 Financials 03 Investments
Refining Industry
02.01.2014 15.02.2014 31.03.2014 14.05.2014 27.06.2014 10.08.2014 23.09.2014 06.11.2014 20.12.2014 02.02.2015 18.03.2015 01.05.2015 14.06.2015 28.07.2015 10.09.2015 24.10.2015 07.12.2015 20.01.2016 04.03.2016 Brent Crude Oil Prices $/Barrel 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 108,0 115,3 106,1 101,2 CONS Excess Crude Supply Cooling Chinese Economy Consumption is lower than usual in the winter months because of the El-Nino effect High production from the OPEC and non-opec producers Entry of Iranian production The amount of additional new refining capacity in ME and China. 65,7 60,4 45,2 94,6 84,3 55,0 55,0 71,7 62,0 66,7 PROS Increased geopolitical risk perception Potential high consumption due to the lower price environment. Narrowed spread between the Brent and WTI and increased spread between the light and heavy crudes Worsening situation of the economies in oil dependent countries 26,0 39,2
Thousand Barrels/Day Refinery Capacity Change 3.000 200 270 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.000 520 880 1.000 0-1.000-2.000-3.000 530 160 334 810 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1.678 1.790 526 250 150 640 1.041 1.110 799 510 309 198 400 390 181 120 0 340 84 302 135 160 195 180 52 40 885 1.000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-255 -145-240 -140-5 -443-100 20 305 63 65 China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan North America -543-486 -109-266 -775-421 -546-352 -189-218 Europe Source : Tüpraş, Reuters, Reports 5
Refinery Value Market Position Proportion of products sold domestically Local Competition Infrastructure Value Added Ability to upgrade Correlated to complexity Local Market Dynamics Growth trends Supply / Demand balance Cost Base Energy Efficiency Raw Material costs Scale Automation 6
Product Crack $/bbl 23,00 21,00 19,00 17,00 15,00 13,00 11,00 9,00 7,00 5,00 Jet Fuel Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F Gasoil 25,00 23,00 21,00 19,00 17,00 15,00 13,00 11,00 9,00 7,00 5,00 Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F Note: 2009-March 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (April-December estimation PIRA 7
Product Crack $/bbl 25,00 Gasoline 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F Naphta 5,00 0,00-5,00-10,00-15,00-20,00 Jan Feb March April May June July Agust Sept Oct. Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F 2009 2010 2011 2012 10,00 0,00-10,00-20,00-30,00-40,00-50,00-60,00 Note: 2009- March 2016 Platts Data, 2016 (April-December) estimation PIRA LPG 8
Crude Differentials $/Barrel 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0 2,0 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-10,0-12,0 Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel 2009-2012 Min/Max 2012 2014 2011 2013 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Differentials Trends Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0-2,5-3,0-3,5-4,0 9
Gross Margin $/bbl Med Complex Refining Margins 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00-1,00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2,00 Max-Min 2004-2009 Average 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10
Million Vehicles Turkish Sector Outlook 25 20 15 10 5 0 Primary driver of demand is growing vehicle parc Auto sales continue to massively outstrip removals Very high gasoline tax has led to LPG & Diesel substitution Gasoline car sales improving 8,7 10,2 12,2 Vehicle 13,8 4,1 4,8 6,1 7,0 7,2 7,6 Parc 14,3 15,1 16,1 17,0 8,0 17,9 18,8 19,9 8,4 8,7 9,0 9,4 4,6 5,4 6,1 6,8 7,1 7,5 8,1 8,6 9,3 9,9 10,5 200 150 100 50 0 79,4 43,6 Air Passengers - Million 85,5 102,8 44,3 52,2 59,4 117,6 130,0 149,5 65,4 35,8 41,2 50,6 58,3 64,5 73,4 80,3 165,7 181,4 83,9 76,1 85,4 97,5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Domestic International Jet Fuel demand growing strongly Highly competitive liberalised market Big infrastructure investments Istanbul has become a hub for Turkish Airlines Fuel Oil demand is declining Natural gas substitution Switching is dependent on price Long Term Asphalt Demand Growth Infrastructure investments Passenger Car Other *By the end of November 11
12 Month 2015 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton) 25,0 20,0 Diesel 5,0 4,0 Jet Fuel* +15,8% +13,1% 15,0 10,0 17,43 20,18 3,0 2,0 4,10 4,64 5,0 1,0 0,0 2014 2015 0,0 2014 2015 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 Gasoline +9,1% 1,92 2,09 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,54 Fuel Oil -18,5% 0,44 0,5 0,10 0,0 2014 2015 0,00 2014 2015 * Tüpraş sales + Distributor s Imports 12
Turkey s Import / Export Balance (Net) 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0-4,0-5,0-6,0-7,0-8,0-9,0-10,0-11,0-12,0-13,0-14,0-3,0 Export -3,0-3,1 Import -3,1-3,0 2,1 2,5 2,4 Million Ton 2,5 3,0-10,0-10,8-12,0-12,7-12,3 LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1,5 1,6 1,0 1,8 1,6
Company Overview
Tüpraş Refining Assets Black Sea Baku İstanbul MARMARA İzmit Ankara Kırıkkale İzmir Batman Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million Tons 100% of Turkey s refining Capacity Current Nelson Complexity(NC): 9.5 Kirkuk İzmit 11.0 MT Capacity NC: 14.5 Storage Capacity : 3.0 Mn M 3 İzmir 11.0 MT Capacity NC: 7.66 Storage Capacity : 2.5 Mn M 3 Lube Oil Production 400 thousand ton Kırıkkale 5.0 MT Capacity NC: 6.32 Storage Capacity : 1.4 Mn m 3 Batman 1.1 MT Capacity NC: 1.83 Storage Capacity : 0.3 Mn m 3 15
OPET Tüpraş Share 40.0 % 1.419 İstasyon 1.003 Opet Marka 416Sunpet Marka 1.1 Million M3 Storage Major Terminals in Marmara, Agean, Black Sea & Mediteranean International Trading London Jet Fuel Sales Turkish Airlines JV Lubricants Fuchs JV A Sector Leader 2nd Biggest Player # 1 Brand 16
Million Tons DİTAŞ Deniz Taşımacılığı Tüpraş Share %79.98 Cumhuriyet Sevgi Gönül Leyla Suna Esra & Aylin Crude 2001 164,86 K DWT Products 2008 10,98 K DWT Products 2009 10,98 K DWT Products 2011 6 K DWT Products 2012 55 K DWT Bitumen 2x20 K DWT Esra 2014 Aylin 2015 25 18,0 19 Tugboats 20 2,6 9,6 15 10 5 0 19,3 14,8 3,1 11,8 9,6 8,4 5,2 3,1 3,5 6,4 4,8 6,6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Crude Products Financials Million $ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net Sales 146,4 159,0 103,7 101,7 113,6 Op. Profit 17,9 22,8 25,2 27,3 36,8
0,59 0,30 0,00 1,43 3,11 2,39 2,57 5,47 11,54 Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons) Crude Type - 2015 30% 7% In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11 countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API 63% Heavy / Sour Medium Heavy / Sour Light & Sweet 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 7,2 9,7 5,3 5,1 0,6 1,5 2,0 2,1 1,9 2,9 2,8 2,0 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,4 3,8 3,1 5,7 6,1 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,1 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,7 1,0 0,0 2,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 IRAN RUSSİA S.ARABİA TURKEY IRAQ KAZAKSTAN ITALY LİBYA OTHER 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 18
Margin Environment O 06 H 06 K 06 N 07 E 07 Ş 08 T 08 A 08 M 09 E 09 M 10 A 10 O 11 H 11 K 11 N 12 E 12 Ş 13 T 13 A 13 M 14 E 14 M 15 A 15 O 16 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Tüpraş Refining Margins ($/bbl) 9,62 5,30 5,32 5,54 Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Mediterranean Ural Complex Margin 1,95 Annual 10,55 3,21 2,45 1,67 1,95 Med Complex 2,89 Month 1,17 4,21 11,86 6,47 4,83 2013 2014 2015 Annual 1,67 2,01 4,83 4,77 Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers refining margin due to: Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish market (for diesel, jet fuel, LPG and specialist products such as lube oil and extract) Access to cheaper sources of crude oil Ability to use heavier and sour crudes Proximity to major suppliers Reduces transport costs Implemented cost reduction measures Energy efficiency programs Capacity to produce higher value added range of refined products Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients High export capability 19
Gross Refinery Margins, $/v 20-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 J-99 A-99 J-99 O-99 J-00 A-00 J-00 O-00 J-01 A-01 J-01 O-01 J-02 A-02 J-02 O-02 J-03 A-03 J-03 O-03 J-04 A-04 J-04 O-04 J-05 A-05 J-05 O-05 J-06 A-06 J-06 O-06 J-07 A-07 J-07 O-07 J-08 A-08 J-08 O-08 J-09 A-09 J-09 O-09 J-10 A-10 J-10 O-10 J-11 A-11 J-11 O-11 J-12 A-12 J-12 O-12 J-13 A-13 J-13 O-13 J-14 A-14 J-14 O-14 J-15 A-15 J-15 O-15 J-16 Mediterranean Tüpraş ABD WTI Singapore 20
60,4 69,6 74,4 71,3 78,7 76,8 86,1 91,1 98,1 Production Capacity Utilisation (%) Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons) 120 100 80 69,2 77,1 7,5 5,5 2,9 2,4 74,9 81,6 79,1 3,6 +27,6% 102,5 4,4 8 7 6 5 5,71 5,51 4,55 7,32 7,42 6,82 6,47 6,25 6,07 5,51 4,63 5,41 60 8,7 4 4,19 4,32 4,06 40 3 3,31 20 Crude Oil Other 2 1 Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 21
4th Quarter Product Yields 22
12M Product Yields 23
Refining Sales 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Domestic Sales, Million Tons 1,8 1,8 1,8 1,82,0 8,6 7,9 8,1 6,7 9,2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 4,8 3,33,63,9 2,8 3,02,82,9 2,9 1,9 Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen Sales Breakdown & Comparison 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 Export Domestic 22,2 5,3 16,9 %+29,5 %+31,9 28,7 6,5 22,2 2014 2015 Total Sales, Million Tons 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 5,6 4,6 4,2 4,64,3 8,8 8,0 8,2 6,8 9,3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5,1 3,53,7 3,9 3,0 3,02,82,9 2,9 1,9 Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Bitumen Sales to distributors in Turkey are made at prices established by Tüpraş In accordance with a formula based on Italian "CIF" prices plus a margin below a maximum approved by EMRA Tüpraş's prices are affixed to all distributors, including Opet, on an equal basis Export sales are generally made to traders, on FOB basis
12M Trading Activities Exports, Ton*000 4.000 3.559 2014 3.000 2.508 2.670 2.551 2015 2.000 1.000 349 129 27 35 0 Gasoline Middle Dist. Fuel Oil Other Exports High CUR = big increases in export Finished Products High Sulfur Diesel imports decreased due to low desulphurisation arbitrage profits. ULSD imports were higher due to the trading arbitrage. Intermediates Additional HVGO + LCGO imported to increase Capacity Utilisation of conversion units. 1.000 800 600 400 Product Imports, Ton*000 2014 882 804 2015 637 692 588 532 274 800 600 400 Intermediate Imports, Ton*000 436 733 12M 2014 12M 2015 200 0 0 0 24 49 61 200 0 HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil 25
Sales By Customer 2015 Customer Groups Sales to Distributors Military 2% Export 23% Asphalt 10% Distributors 40% Others 31% OMV POAŞ 25% Petkim 1% Other 5% LPG Dist. 3% Jet Fuel 5% THY Opet 11% TOTAL 4% TP 4% BP 6% Shell 13% OPET 17% Total: 28.7 million ton Distributors : 12.8 million ton 26
Investments
Investments, million $ 1.400 1.200 1.000 974 1.213 207 959 RUP with Supplementary Projects Others 800 600 400 200 0 628 213 258 231 1.006 761 344 701 177 397 153 150 190 268 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 268
İzmit Waste Water Treatment Other Major Projects İzmir Crude Oil Revamping Kırıkkale Power Plant Project Aims To reduce the need for fresh water What the Project Entails A water treatment plant to process municipal & refinery waste water Two temporary systems were built to serve until the main system was completed Project completed in 2015 Investment 22 Million USD Project Aims Eliminating low energy efficiency in the furnaces Enables sustainable full capacity utilization What the Project Entails Configuration Changes De-salter & Pre-flash column Heat recycling Heat Exchanger Replace column internals New pre-flash drum Expectations Investment: 31.9 Million USD IRR > 40% Project Aims Improving Energy Efficiency at Kırıkkale with a combined heat & power plant The other refineries are already equipped Expected completion: 2016 What the Project Entails A new gas turbine New steam turbines New boilers One existing steam turbine will be utilized Total power: 60 MW Investment 84 Million USD IRR: >30% 29
Key Financials
Profitability Indicators, 12 M & 4Q 4 th Q Full Year (%) 2014 2015 2014 2015 (%) 76,27 43,69-43 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 98,99 52,46-47,01 31,91 30,27-5,1 Processed Crude API 32,29 31,35-2,91 70,50 77,50 7,0 White Product Yield, (%) 72,20 75,40 3,20 3,84 3,54-7,8 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 1,95 4,83 148,2 4,56 5,17 13,3 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 3,21 6,47 101,6 13,2 422,0 - Operating Profit, (mn. $) 199,3 1.012,2 408-41,1 362,4 982 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 220,1 1.218,6 454 43,4 481,4 1.008 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb 317,3 1.191,0 275 247,7 564,9 128 EBITDA (mn.$)-cmb- CCS 554,1 1.379,1 149-10,9 421,8-3.980 EBITDA *(mn. $) 338,2 1.397,4 313 193,4 505,3 161 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 575,0 1.585,5 176 * In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB rules is that these should be included in operationg profit
-1.955-653 0,10 0,22 0,19 0,18 578 551 0,24 0,26 0,30 1.340 0,32 0,33 0,30 0,30 1.994 1.696 1.869 1.598 1.663 0,35 0,35 2.452 2.577 2.748 2.370 0,40 Financial Highlights (mn $) 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0-200 830 1.329 169 468 779 271 328 256 134 262 EBITDA 272 422 715 1.397 560 410 106 89 338 361 315 415 226 153 78 95 79 150 150-27 -11 2009 2010 2011 2012R 2013 2014 2015 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Net Income 938 817 740 285 629 667 174 271 490 47 91 206 175 268 47 309 435 230 171 522 165 273 75 145 194 161 75 231 67 72 112 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net Debt/(Cash) Return on Average Equity 3.000 2.000 1.000 0-1.000-2.000-3.000 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 1Q 2014 1Q 2014 1H 2014 9M 2014 2015 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 9M 2015 32
Balance Sheet Analysis Cash & Equivalents (Billion $) Receivables (Billion $) 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1,831,81 1,41 2,16 1,721,69 1,30 1,641,68 1,21 1,04 1,04 0,82 Dec.12Mar.13 Jun 13 Sep13 Dec 13Mar.14 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1,19 1,341,45 1,33 0,93 0,71 0,520,51 0,09 0,20 0,66 1,07 0,88 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Financial Loans (Billion $) 2,9 3,1 3,4 3,7 3,1 3,2 3,2 3,3 3,7 3,6 3,6 3,4 0,9 1,0 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,6 2,4 0,8 0,5 0,8 0,4 2,0 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Payables (Billion $) 3,46 3,223,10 3,28 2,882,972,94 3,04 2,46 1,741,70 1,591,36 LT Loans ST Loans 33
FX Risk Exposure (31 December 2015 ) Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash 550 Receivables 188 Stock 675 Forward 2,003 Payables 904 ST Financials 351 RUP 300 LT Financials: 2,337 RUP Loans: 1,550 Eurobond: 700 Other credits 88-177 million $ Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,709 mn $
Future Expectations Brent Price Estimation The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band. Med Complex Margin We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5-4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016. Tupras Net Margin For Tupras net refinery margins, we expect this to be in the region of 5.8-6.3 dollars per barrel Capacity Utilisation Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %. Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons Investment Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars
Income Statement 4Q 4 Q 2014 2015 % Diff. Million USD 2014 2015 % Diff. 3.974,2 3.031,3-24 Net Sales 18.164,8 13.570,7-25 98,0 454,5 364 Gross Profit 577,5 1.535,7 166-108,1-98,8-9 Operating Expenses -334,6-322,6-4 23,2 66,3 185 Income/Loss from Other Oper. -43,6-200,9 361 13,2 422,0 3.098 Operating Profit 199,3 1.012,2 408-28,6 10,9-138 Income/Loss from equity & Inv. -7,6 26,7-450 -15,4 432,9-2.913 Operating Profit Before Finance 191,6 1.038,9 442 64,9-60,0-192 Financial Income 228,1 317,3 39-94,5 2,0-102 Finance Expenses -335,8-537,7 60-45,0 374,9-932 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 84,0 818,6 875 90,8 284,8 213 Net Profit 667,2 938,0 41
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference % Difference Current Assets 2.984 3.015-31 -1 Cash & C. Equivalents 1.041 1.681-640 -38 Receivables 882 87 796 920 Derivatives 6 28-21 -77 Inventories 723 1.022-299 -29 Pre-paid expenses 45 53-8 -15 Other Current Assets 285 144 141 98 Long Term Assets 5.776 6.443-667 -10 Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 264 315-51 -16 Fixed Assets 3.950 4.600-651 -14 Pre-paid expenses 62 112-50 -45 Deferred Tax 1.101 1.131-30 -3 Other Long Term Assets 314 284 29 10 Total Assets 8.760 9.458-698 -7
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities Million USD 31.12.2015 31.12.2014 Difference % Difference Short Term Liabilities 3.036 3.692-656 -18 Financial Loans 644 335 308 92 Payables 1.363 2.464-1.101-45 Derivatives 13,89 0,03 13,86 47.258 Deferred Incomes 8 8-0,12-1 Provisions 24 47-23 -48 Other ST Liabilities 984 838 146 17 Long Term Liabilities 2.845 3.087-242 -8 Financial Loans 2.768 3.009-241 -8 Payables & Provisions 67 76-9 -12 Derivatives 9 0 9 4.325 Other LT Liabilities 1 2-1 -29 Equity 2.856 2.655 201 8 Minority Interests 22 24-2 -10 Total Liabilities 8.760 9.458-698 -7
Dividends (TL) Total Payout (Million TL) 7 1.200 6 985 5,83 964 1.000 5 4 3 2 579 2,31 3,24 626 2,50 2,94 746 2,98 4,96 3,93 3,85 4,78 396 800 600 400 1 1,73 1,58 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout 2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive 39
Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
Doğan Korkmaz CFO Turgut Tuncay Önbilgin Investor Relations and Reporting Director The Investor Relations section of our company website has a rich content of updated information for the interested investors Investor Relations and Reporting Directors Tel. : 262 316 3269 Fax : 262 316 30 10-11 Güney Mah. Petrol Cad. No.25 PK.41790 Körfez-Kocaeli www.tupras.com.tr E-mail: info@tupras.com.tr www.tupras.com.tr
Supplements
HIGH DEMAND (12 Month 2015 - Turkish Consumption (Million ton)) 25,0 20,0 Diesel +15,8% 5,0 4,0 Jet Fuel* +13,1% 15,0 3,0 10,0 17,43 20,18 2,0 4,10 4,64 5,0 1,0 0,0 2014 2015 0,0 2014 2015 Gasoline Fuel Oil 2,5 2,0 +9,1% 0,60 0,50-18,5% 1,5 1,0 1,92 2,09 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,54 0,44 0,5 0,10 0,0 2014 2015 0,00 2014 2015 * Tüpraş sales + Distributor s Imports
HIGH COMPLEXITY #1 (Nelson Complexity of Refinining Companies) 7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,1 6,8 6,5 İzmit 16 After RUP 14 12 10 14,5 13,0 12,6 Tüpraş After RUP 11,8 11,6 11,5 11,0 10,4 9,9 9,8 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,2 9,2 9,0 8,8 8,7 8,4 8,0 Tüpraş Before RUP 8 6 5,9 5,8 5,8 4 2 0
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 2 (Resid Upgrading Units Production (Thousand Tons)) Raw Materials (kton) Products (kton) Natural Gas 246 Vacuum Resid 1,214 Atm. Dip 3,036 Total Feed 4,496 Total Production 4,250 45
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 3 (Tüpraş Total Production Change After RUP) Bitumen 2,9 Before RUP After Coke Fuel Oil 0,35 0,7 2,7 %-87 RUP production + 4 Refineries Capacities increase 9,1 mn tons, instead of 4,2 mn ton Others 1,4 0,3 %19 Diesel 5,6 5,5 Jet Fuel 3,6 0,9 %25 Gasoline&Na ptha 4,7 1,7 %35 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Million ton 46
HIGH COMPLEXITY # 4 (Tüpraş Tax Incentive From RUP) Large Scale Investment Incentive 21.10.2010 Valued at 30% of project cost Realised after completion Tax rate of 10% on project earnings until total incentive is reached Strategic Investment Incentives 19.10.2012 Valued at 50% of project cost Partly realised during construction Tax rate of 2% on project earnings until total incentive is reached Total incentive is 3,66 billion TL. 344 mn TL of Investment incentive income deducted from Strategic Investment Incentive total
HIGH QUALITY (Maximum on-road diesel sulphur limits, January 2014) 2014 2015 2020 2025 US& Canada 15 15 15 10 Latin America 630 450 195 40 Europe 20 18 12 10 Middle east 900 470 125 45 Russia & Caspian 90 70 55 40 Africa 2.800 2.000 850 390 Asia& Pasific 245 185 105 45 Source:Stratas Advisors Tüpraş and Turkey have the most stringent production limits on sulphur content 48
HIGH FLEXIBILITY (Tüpraş Refineries Simple Flow Diagram) 97,000 m3/bbl Crude Distillation (8) Naphtha Splitter (8) 43,000 m3/bbl Vacuum Dist. LPG Merox (6) Isomerisation (3) Kero / Diesel HDS (10) Unifiner Reformer (7) 6,400 m3/bbl 16,900 m3/bbl 37,300 m3/bbl 4,700 m3/bbl FCC(2) 17,400 m3/bbl Hydrocracker (4) FCC Gasoline HDS (2) 400 thousand ton/year Benzene Saturation (2) 2015 Yield Gasoline + Naphtha %21.9 Jet Fuel + Kerosene %19.0 Gas Oil %30.5 Lube Oil %0.5 (8) Bitumen / Lube Oil (1) 8,200 m3/day Coker Fuel Oil %21.9 Bitumen (4) Others %1.3 LPG %3.4
LOCATIONAL ADVANTAGE & HEAVIER CRUDES (Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (Million Tons)) 5,47 3,11 2,39 2,57 11,54 0,59 0,30 0,00 1,43 In 2015, Tüpraş purchased 21 different types of crude oil from 11 countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 7,2 9,7 5,3 5,1 0,6 1,5 2,0 2,1 1,9 2,9 2,8 2,0 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,4 3,8 3,1 5,7 6,1 1,6 1,5 1,5 1,1 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,1 0,1 0,7 1,0 0,0 2,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 IRAN RUSSİA S.ARABİA TURKEY IRAQ KAZAKSTAN ITALY LİBYA OTHER 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 50
51 www.tüpraş.com.tr COVERING WHOLE COUNTRY Operations Tüpraş operates the only 4 refineries in Turkey 3 Large Refineries produce Euro V Diesel & Gasoline, plus jet fuel, fuel oils, asphalt, LPG, naphtha and others Black Sea Baku İstanbul Marmara İzmit 11.0 MT Capacity NC: 14,5 Storage Capacity: 2.2 Mn M 3 Sales Channels: o Pipeline, Ship, Railway & Truck İzmir İzmit Ankara Mersin Kırıkkale Batman Ceyhan Kirkuk İzmir 11.0 MT Capacity NC: 7.66 Storage Capacity: 1.9 Mn M 3 Only lubricant, base Oil, producer Sales Channels: o Pipeline, Ship, & Truck Kırıkkale 5.0 MT Capacity NC: 6.32 Storage Capacity: 1.2 Mn M 3 Sales Channels: o Pipeline, Railway & Truck 1.1 MT Capacity NC: 1.83 Batman Storage Capacity: 0.2 Mn M 3 Asphalt - 70% of product yield o Sales Channels: o Semi-finished products sent for further processing Pipeline, Railway & Truck
COMPETITION # 1 (European Pump Price Comparison) 139 214 109 278 123 282 82 280 127 282 131 305 114 320 131 322 185 302 174 130 205 107 172 150 214 118 224 109 211 80 275 119 320 113 245 196 Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 ppm (Krş / Lt) 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 353 Tax Distr. Margin Pump No Tax 487 436 434 454 405 405 409 386 43 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 304 313 322 331 334 339 47 394 433 441 50 50 0 Spa. Ger. EU19 TR Fra. Gre. Eng. Ita Nor. 0 Spa. Ger. Gre. EU19 Fra. TR Ita. Eng. Nor. Not:e Price valid on 15 Feb 2016. Tukey diesel price 18 Feb. 2016. 52
COMPETITION # 2 (Regional Competition) Mediterranean Black Sea 53 Refineries 7.6 mn bpd 17 Refineries 1.6 mn bpd 53
COMPETITION # 3 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery) Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13 percent stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion. Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10 percent of its stakes to Socar, and the remaining 3 percent to Sermaye Investments Limited owned by SOCAR within 6 year at the same price. STAR Refinery Production (k ton) Fuels Diesel 5.000 Jet Fuel 1.700 Sulphur 158 Petrocoke 698 Petrochemical feedstock LPG 260 Naptha 1.300 Mixed xylene 460 Reformate 524 10,100 Credit : 3.3 Billion $ Equity : 2.4 Billion $ Total Investment: 5.7 Billion $ 3,3 billion dollar credit aggrement. First 4 year grace period total 15-18 year term. Project finance is supplied to company (US$ 1.5 billion) It is planned to be commissioned in 2018. 54
COMPETITION # 4 (Turkey consumption balance & the effect of new refinery) 2018 2018* Million ton Turkey Demand Tüpraş Production Turkey- Tüpraş Star SOCAR Deficit/ (Excess) Crude Oil 28,1 10,0 Semi product+other charge 0,8 Total processed 28,9 10,0 Products LPG 4,1 1,1-3,0 0,3-2,7 Petrochem. charge: Naptha, Reformate/xylene 2,8 0,6-2,2 2,3 0,1 Gasoline 2,2 5,7 3,5 3,5 Jet fuel/kerosene 5,4 5,6 0,2 1,7 1,9 Diesel 21,9 10,2-11,7 5,0-6,7 Fuel Oil 1,1 0,9-0,2-0,2 Asphalt 3,3 2,7-0,6-0,6 Sulphur & other 1,8 0,5-1,3 0,2-1,1 Coke 3,0 0,8-2,2 0,7-1,5 Total 45,5 28,4-17,1 10,1-7,0 *Expected to be completed by the end of 2018 55
7,1 7,1 6,9 6,1 4,8 5,0 3,4 3,5 3,6 1,9 3,2 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,6 1,7 1,4 2,4 0,8 2,8 1,3 3,4 2,0 1,1 0,5 Tüpraş HSE KPI: Loss Time Incident Frequency and Severity Frequency Ratios 8,0 7,0 6,0 Incident Frequency İncluding contractors Tüpraş Contractor Total 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 3,6 2,5 1,7 2,2 1,5 1,1 1,6 2,5 0,7 0,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2019 Loss Time Severity Frequency Rate (2015 Target 30) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 Tüpraş 92 44 40 53 65 61 59 719 20 Contractor 116 101 81 118 424 17 378 51 20 Toplam 105 73 57 83 289 26 308 315 20 loss time incident freaquency rate =number of incident *1000000/man hours loss severity frequency rate = loss time*1000000/man hours 56
Energy Saving Projects, mn$ 450 400 350 300 345 376 398 407 250 200 240 150 100 50 0 135 42 73 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Energy Index 119,1 99,2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Toplam Tüpraş Energy consumption (TJ) 76.653 65.265 67.010 70.792 71.086 69.147 67.034 90.796 577.783 Energy-saving(TJ) 978 10.891 3.155 3.053 5.255 2.841 1.772 1.031 28.976 Energy Efficiency Project 36 52 65 92 97 40 22 21 425 Savings (mn $) 42 32 62 105 106 31 22 10 407 57