Quarter 3, 2017
Key results quarter 3 2017 BVRLA business fleet leasing sector including contract hire and finance lease for both cars and vans is 1,338,000, 1% down on the previous quarter. Total car leasing fleet (all leasing types) was unchanged compared to the previous quarter, with core risk products including contract hire and finance falling by 1%. Growth in Personal Contract Hire has reduced from 7% in Q2 2017 compared to the previous quarter to 3% in Q3 2017. The LCV market continues to grow quarter on quarter but the pace of growth has slowed to around 1% growth quarter on quarter. More members reported on the average age of their car and LCV fleets (data collected for the first time last quarter). This lead to an adjustment in the average age of car to 24 months; and the average age of LCV is 29 months. The average fleet emissions of new cars added to the BVRLA fleet reduced very slightly to 111.6g/km. UK government s average fleet emissions for the quarter have not yet been published. The proportion of low emissions (formerly VED bands A, B and C) continues to rise, all other bands remained the same or fell, except band D and F which rose very slightly. The proportion of petrol cars added to the fleet increased by 4.8% compared to the previous quarter, replacing diesel which declined by 4.5%. Members confidence about the economy and the fleet leasing sector remains negative, but unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Members remain positive about fleet growth, but have become progressively less positive each quarter since Q4 2016. Members remain concerned about used car values, but have become progressively less negative since Q4 2015.
BVRLA Fleet Leasing Sector (contract hire and finance lease only, cars and vans) Total BVRLA business fleet leasing sector for cars and LCVs has reduced from 1,350,000 to 1,338,000 due to two successive quarters in which car risk fleet has contracted by 1% compared to the previous quarter. Overall fleet size is still growing year on year with continued (but slowing) growth in the number of LCVs. (000 s) (000 s) (000 s) Market growth YoY TOTAL CARS LCVS TOTAL CARS LCVS Q3 17 1,338 964 374 2.5% 0.3% 10.3% Q2 17 1,350 979 371 7.6% 2.4% 14.9% Q1 17 1,345 987 358 6.5% 3.6% 15.3% Q4 '16 1,335 985 350 6.6% 3.6% 16.2% Q3 '16 1,306 967 339 5.0% 2.2% 13.8% Q2 '16 1,255 936 319 4.6% 2.1% 12.4% Q1 16 1,239 933 306 4.7% 2.1% 13.4% Q4 15 1,228 931 297 Q3 15 1,220 927 293 Q2 15 1,201 917 284 *This figure is business fleet leasing i.e. contract hire and finance lease only, calculated from BVRLA membership figures at Q3 2016, and subsequently adjusted by percentage growth from a sample group plus actuals where available. Actual figures are available for c.70% of the total fleet. The sample group contains data on larger fleets with smaller fleets assumed to grow at a similar rate. It excludes contract purchase, personal contracts, fleet management and Motability vehicles. Market growth is further adjusted to reflect a change in the sample group from Q3 2016.
Trends by contract type, cars Declining pace of growth since Q4 2016 has continued into Q3 with 0% growth quarter on quarter and slower growth year on year (6% down from 12% in Q4 2016). % Growth year on year 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 TOTAL 9% 10% 10% 12% 11% 8% 6% Fleet Leasing* 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 0% PCH 53% 55% 49% 47% 42% 36% 28% Rest 15% 16% 19% 25% 17% 9% 9% % growth quarter on quarter 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 TOTAL 2% 3% 3% 4% 1% 0% 0% Fleet Leasing* 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% PCH 12% 11% 8% 10% 8% 7% 3% Rest 6% 5% 5% 8% 1% 2% 4% *non captive finance BVRLA members only included in sample group. Feet leasing includes contract hire and finance lease only
Other leasing fleet size measures Total SMMT new fleet registrations CARS Vehicle Type Sales Type Group Detailed Sales Type Description Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 CARS BUSINESS DIPLOMATIC/CONSULAR 0 0 1 2 0 CARS BUSINESS BUSINESS: OTHER 28,375 19,317 32,422 19,489 26,067 CARS BUSINESS BUSINESS:LEASING/CONTRACT HIRE 2,447 1,582 2,313 1,327 1,803 CARS FLEET DEALER VEHICLE 58,144 37,682 56,903 45,679 54,683 CARS FLEET FLEET: OTHER 46,976 34,782 53,898 33,847 40,226 CARS FLEET FLEET: LEASING/CONTRACT HIRE 111,565 99,709 116,072 92,934 98,833 CARS FLEET FLEET: DEMONSTRATOR 95 152 153 184 304 CARS FLEET FLEET: MOTABILITY 61,100 53,430 56,997 56,167 57,048 CARS FLEET FLEET: RENTAL 58,639 43,853 81,143 72,564 49,056 367,341 290,507 399,402 322,220 328,020
Other leasing fleet size measures Total SMMT new fleet registrations LCVs Vehicle Type Sales Type Group Detailed Sales Type Description Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 LCVS BUSINESS BUSINESS: OTHER 13,461 9,554 14,855 12,959 14,466 LCVS BUSINESS BUSINESS:LEASING/CONTRACT HIRE 334 364 594 526 619 LCVS FLEET DEALER VEHICLE 4,597 2,593 5,081 3,682 4,652 LCVS FLEET FLEET: OTHER 37,042 35257 37,084 31,391 33,253 LCVS FLEET FLEET: LEASING/CONTRACT HIRE 19,996 17329 20,455 17,302 19,788 LCVS FLEET FLEET: DEMONSTRATOR 6 11 13 31 9 LCVS FLEET FLEET: MOTABILITY 147 119 76 68 117 LCVS FLEET FLEET: RENTAL 16,831 13,475 12,119 13,715 16,738 92,414 78,702 90,277 79,674 89.462
Contract duration and average annual contract mileage for total fleet - cars and LCVs Q2 2017 7 out of 10 Car & LCV contracts under 20K miles Mean contract mileage per annum for cars 15k miles and LCVs 17k miles 23% 38% 20% 20% 26% 18% 12% 15% 10% 7% 5% 0 10k 10k 15k 15k 20k 20k 25k 25k 30k 30k+ 0 10k miles 10 15k miles 15 20k miles 20 25k miles 25 30k miles 30k + miles Mileage per annum Cars LCVs 6% Mean contract duration cars: 3 years Mean contract duration LCVs: 4 years No material changes 4% 1% 20% 46% 5% 31% 42% 25% 18% 4% 4% 2% 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 or more 0 12 mths 13 24 mths 25 36 mths 37 48 mths 49 60 mths 61 mths+ Contract duration
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Age profile of fleet cars and LCVs Average age of cars is 24 months; average age of LCVs is 29 months 0% <1 year 1 2 years 2 3 years 3 4 years 4 5 years >5 years CAR LCV
MVRIS segment trends Around half of the fleet comprises super-mini, mini and lower medium. Dual purpose has consistently grown since 2012, with reductions in upper medium and other larger segments 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Upper medium Dual Purpose Executive Mini, super mini and lower medium
VED band profile* - Total fleet per quarter Band A Analysis VED VED BAND band Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2015 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 Q22017 2016 Q3 Q1 YoY 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 Emission 2017 level Q2 2017 Q3 BAND A 23.4% 24.4% 26.2% 27.8% 28.2% 27.1% 27.3% 27.5% Band A 24.8% 24.9% 26.6% 27.1% 27.3% +0.8% Band A (Up to 100g/KM CO2) Band A (<50g/KM CO2) 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% Band A (51 75g/KM B 20.9% CO2) 21.0% 21.1% 0.1% 23.0% 0.1% 0.2% 23.1% 0.7% +1.4% 0.8% Band B 0.3% (Up to 101g 0.3% 110g/KM CO2) 0.4% Band A (76 94g/KM CO2) 6.2% 6.4% 7.2% 8.6% 8.7% 7.7% 9.2% 9.3% Band C 20.5% 20.5% 20.1% 21.5% 21.5% +0.2% Band C (Up to 111 120g/KM CO2) Band A (95 100g/KM CO2) 15.5% 16.0% 16.6% 16.1% 15.9% 16.1% 14.6% 14.3% Band D 11.0% 11.0% 10.7% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% Band D (Up to 121g 130g/KM CO2) Band B (Up E to 101g 7.6% 110g/KM 7.6% CO2) 7.3% 19.5% 6.9% 20.2% 22.3% 6.9% 22.0% 0.7 % 22.5% Band 23.0% E (Up to 131g 23.1% 140g/KM CO2) 23.1% Band C (Up to 111 120g/KM CO2) 21.3% 20.8% 21.6% 21.1% 21.0% 21.5% 21.5% 21.4% Band F 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 0.5% Band F (Up to 141g 150g/KM CO2) Band D (Up to 121g 130g/KM CO2) 11.8% 11.7% 11.2% 11.0% 10.8% 11.0% 11.0% 11.2% Band G 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 0.4% Band G (Up to 151g 165g/KM CO2) Band E (Up to 131g 140g/KM CO2) 8.1% 7.8% 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% Band F (Up H to 141g 1.0% 150g/KM 1.0% CO2) 0.9% 4.8% 0.8% 4.6% 4.1% 0.8% 3.9% 0.2% 3.7% Band H 3.6% (Up to 166g 3.5% 175g/KM CO2) 3.6% Band G (Up to 151g 165g/KM CO2) 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% Band I 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% Band I (Up to 176g 185g/KM CO2) Band H (Up to 166g 175g/KM CO2) 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Band Band I (Up J to 176g 2.4% 185g/KM 2.4% CO2) 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% Band J 0.9% (Up to 186g 1.0% 200g/KM CO2) 1.0% Band J (Up K to 186g 1.6% 200g/KM 1.6% CO2) 1.5% 2.4% 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% Band K 0.5% (Up to 201g 0.5% 225g/KM CO2) 0.4% Band K (Up to 201g 225g/KM CO2) 1.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Band L 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Band L (Up to 226g 255g/KM CO2) Band L (Up to 226g 255g/KM CO2) 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Band M (Over M 255g/KM 0.2% CO2) 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Band 0.1% M (Over 255g/KM 0.1% CO2) 0.1% 95 100g/KM CO2, 51.9% <50g/KM CO2, 13.0% 76 94g/KM CO2, 33.8% 51 75g/KM CO2, 1.3% *Vehicle Excise Duty for reporting period refers to arrangements in place prior to new arrangements described in the Finance Bill in April 2017. NB Many of the changes in the Finance Bill were subsequently withdrawn in order to ensure the speedy passage of the Bill through Parliament before it dissolved as a result of the announcement of a general election in June, proposed changes to the vehicle excise duty arrangement were retained.
Profile of total car and LCVs by CO2 emissions CO2 emissions for BVRLA fleet are 111.7g/km - a slight decrease from the previous quarter but up 1g/km year on year. This is largely accounted for by the increased percentage of Personal Contract Hire funded vehicles which have higher emissions. Average emissions for total fleet BVRLA BVRLA National Average BVRLA BVRLA (g/km) CARS Whole fleet CARS New registrations CARS new registrations LCVS Whole fleet LCVS New registrations Q4 2012 128.8 131.6 Q1 2013 129.8 129.7 Q2 2013 126.5 128.8 Q3 2013 126.9 127.6 Q4 2013 124.7 119.1 127.4 Q1 2014 123.9 117.9 126.1 Q2 2014 123.5 117.8 125.9 Q3 2014 121.5 116.7 123.8 Q4 2014 121.2 114.7 123.1 Q1 2015 119.5 112.6 122.3 Q2 2015 118.3 113.0 122.1 Q3 2015 117.8 112.6 120.8 Q4 2015 117.8 112.2 120.5 Q1 2016 117.7 110.7 119.8 Q2 2016 116.0 111.0 120.4 Q3 2016 115.3 110.7 120.2 Q4 2016 114.4 110.9 120.8 174.5 167.6 Q1 2017 113.1 110.8 120.5 174.5 165.9 Q2 2017 112.9 111.8 121.3 169.4 162.0 Q3 2017 112.6 111.7 NA 169.0 160.7
Profile of cars and LCVs by CO2 emissions CO2 emissions for BVRLA fleet are 111.7g/km a slight decrease from the previous quarter but up 1g/km year on year. The year on year increase is largely accounted for by the increased percentage of Personal Contract Hire funded vehicles which have higher emissions. BVRLA CARS Whole fleet BVRLA CARS New registrations National Average CARS new registrations BVRLA LCVS Whole fleet 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 Comparison of CO2 emissions Contract hire versus personal contract hire in BVRLA fleet* Contract hire Personal contract hire 111.0 g/km 120.0 g/km * Early findings from an analysis of emissions by finance type. Sample size is currently small.
Profile of total car fleet fuel type Observed trends continue: decline of proportion of diesel cars in fleet replaced largely by petrol and some electric/hybrids CAR FUEL TYPE Q2 2017 TOTAL* NEW* PETROL 20.4% 29.7% DIESEL 74.1% 63.4% PURE ELEC 0.2% 0.2% PETROL ELEC 2.0% 2.1% DIESEL ELEC 0.3% 0.1% PLUG IN HYBRID 3.1% 4.5% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BVRLA Leasing Total Fleet BVRLA Leasing Total Fleet 74.1% 75.6% 20.4% 19.90% 5.6% 4.5% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 201420152015201520152016201620162016 BVRLA New Deliveries 63.4% 29.7% 6.9% Diesel Petrol Petrol Diesel Electric Electric Petrol Diesel Electric
Business Confidence Indicators UK Economy Fleet Size 100% BVRLA CBI 150% 100% 80% 0% 100% 60% 50% 40% 20% 100% 0% 0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 40% 60% 60% 80% 80% Margins 100% 100% 50% 0% 50% 50% Fleet Leasing Sector On balance members continue to feel that the UK economy and the fleet leasing sector is likely to deteriorate over the next six months. Members have become progressively less optimistic about fleet sizes since Q4 2016. However members have become less pessimistic about used car values since the start of 2016. On balance members continue to feel pessimistic about margins. Q4 13 Q1 14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q2 16 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q2 16 Q1 17 Q3 16 Q2 17 Q4 16 Q3 17 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q2 16 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q2 16 Q1 17 Q3 16 Q2 17 Q4 16 Q3 17 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Used Car Values Q4 13 Q1 14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q2 16 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q2 16 Q1 17 Q3 16 Q2 17 Q4 16 Q3 17 Q3 17 Q4 16 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q4 13 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Q4 14 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q1 15 Q4 15 Q2 15 Q1 16 Q3 15 Q2 16 Q4 15 Q3 16 Q1 16 Q4 16 Q2 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 16 Confidence measures take the form of improve/stay the same/ diminish in relation to the next six months compared to current. Confidence is reported on balance ie the percentage quoted is the difference between the percentage of respondents who took the view and the percentage who held the opposing view. CBI confidence index taken c. one month after end of quarter.