Energy Efficiency Transport Sector Danida Fellowship Course 2015 Xianli Zhu Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency (C2E2) UNEP DTU Partnership 18 August 2015
Outline Status & trends of energy use in the transport sector Opportunities for energy efficiency improvement Barriers and policy instruments 2
Global oil consumption by the transport sector Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2014 In 2012, of the 3652 Mtoe of oil consumed worldwide, 63.7% was by the transport sector
Energy consumption in transport World transport energy use by mode, 1971 2012 Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspective 2012 Road transport modes account for most energy consumption The share of road in total transport final oil use has grown from less than 50% in 1973 to nearly 76% in 2012
2010 transport energy by source and by mode (total ~2,200 Mtoe) Source: WEF, Repowering Transport, 2011
Determinants of Transport Fuel consumption Total transport demand (in person*km or ton*km) Model split Load factor vehicle energy efficiency
Oil prices on the international market Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2014
Passenger LDV (Light Duty Vehicle )Sales Worldwide
Historic road freight trends Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Freight transport activity is linked to economic growth and goods demand. Energy use in the road freight sector has dramatically increased since 1990 in both OECD and non OECD countries. Since 2000, growth has slowed in the OECD, while the non OECD has experienced higher growth rates.
ksepe1 The importance of urban mobility Between 2000 and 2010, total global passenger and freight travel increased by an average of 4% per year. As a result, global transport energy use increased 30% in the last decade, while annual global transport emissions grew by nearly 2 GtCO2e The shifts to motorised transport, paired with overall growth in travel demand, have had considerable impact on how efficiently people and goods are moved. Many cities worldwide are already experiencing severe and increasing congestion, along with deteriorating local air quality and increasing noise pollution. To combat these trends and to reach 2DS objectives, understanding of urban mobility needs to improve. Although urban transport plays an increasingly important role in transport and energy discussions, data on urban mobility and transport energy use remain limited. Dedicated policy support for analysis of urban mobility is required, including funding for studies of travel behaviour and choices
Slide 10 ksepe1 this and next 5 slides are really loaded with info, it needs to be more structured and focused. The storyline is not very clear to me Ksenia Petrichenko, 13-08-2015
General observations about transport (1) The transport sector remains dependent on oil because it has high energy density and remains cost competitive compared with most alternative fuels. The past decade s economical, political and oil market turbulence was mirrored in the transport sector, which saw erratic trends in vehicle sales in many countries. To reach 2DS targets, an Avoid/Shift /Improve philosophy is needed.
General observations about transport (2) Improving the fuel economy of current internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by using cost eff ective technologies offers great potential Deployment of electric vehicles has already started, with major producers selling about 40 000 during 2011. The next few years will be critical to build markets and promote customer acceptance of this innovative technology, especially in regions that are heavily cardependent. Advanced technologies, such as electric and fuel cell vehicles, can be mainstreamed for less cost than is commonly believed.
Opportunities for policy action (1) Building a sustainable transport system is cheaper than a conventional one Financial flows shift from operating costs (fuels) to investment costs (infrastructure for mass transit, efficient vehicles) The role of governments and MDB are key to support this long term vision through targeted transport system investments Developing countries are primary targets, as the transport system is still to be built
Opportunities for policy action (2) Eliminate fuel subsidies and set taxation systems to reflect the full range of external costs of fuels and vehicles, including CO2, pollutant emissions, traffic congestion and other impacts. Implement and tighten fuel economy standards for all types of road vehicles, including cars andtrucks, with a five to ten year vision. Support urban and regional development of infrastructure for electric vehicle recharging, with a coherent policy framework including price incentives to promote electric and plug in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEV). Implement high quality mass transport systems in urban areas. Create international frameworks and incentive systems to spur rapid efficiency improvements and CO2 reductions in shipping and aviation.
Policy Package There is no single policy, which can accelerate energy efficiency in transport and address all existing barriers EFFECTIVE POLICY PACKAGE is needed Sustainable transport strategies, targets, roadmaps 'AVOID' unnecessary travel & transportation: need to travel is reduced 'SHIFT' to more efficient means of transport: walking, cycling, public transport 'IMPROVE' efficiency of transport: individual motorised transport (cars, motobikes) P, R, E, I P, R, E, I, T R, E, I, T P planning R regulatory E economic I information T technological
What is modal shift? Why do we care? Modal shift is the changing of travel patterns by mode not necessarily more or less travel, just different. Different modes have different characteristics Cost Energy efficiency, CO2 rates Space efficiency Speed, comfort, door to door convenience Safety, security Availability
Modal choices affect final energy demand Energy intensity of different modes of transport, 2010 Air and light road passenger modes are more energy intensive than public or mass passenger transport modes Air and light road freight modes are also more energy intensive than large road vehicles, rail and shipping
Why do cars often dominate urban travel? In most countries, those who can afford to buy a motorbike or a car do, and then travel by car for a large share of their trips Seen as fast, convenient, comfortable, low (marginal) cost, high status Public transport seen as slow, uncomfortable, high marginal cost, low status Changing this picture requires shifting all these variables for both modes.
How to make modal shift happen Pull Invest heavily in high quality bus and rail transit systems High quality Infrastructure for walking and cycling Land use macro: encourage growth in transitoriented way, better integrate, improve institutional framework Land use micro: connectivity between transit and NMT, streetscapes, walkability Support for cultural change Push Increase the cost of car use! Tax vehicle ownership Fuel pricing Road pricing, parking pricing and restrictions Restricted car use zones
Avoid & Shift Policy tools Planning (compact cities, transport integration in land use planning e.g. transit oriented development) Taxation and charges (fuel taxation, cordon pricing, congestion charging, parking fees, road pricing for freight) Regulations (access restrictions eventually time related, e.g. for freight deliveries, reserved/dedicated lanes) Investments (public transport infrastructure, subsidies to public transport operations)
Transport Demand Management (TDM) TDM is a strategy which aims to maximize the efficiency of the urban transport system by discouraging unnecessary private vehicle use and promoting more effective, healthy and environmental friendly modes of transport, in general being public transport and non motorised transport Key categories of TDM strategies: Improved transportation options: biking and walking, transit and ridesharing Incentives to use alternative modes and reduce driving: universal transit passes, telework, flexible work schedules, road and parking pricing, road space allocation (bike lanes, transit only lanes) Parking management: parking cash out programmes, priority parking for carpools, etc, land use management, mixed use management, increased densities in transit corridors Policy and institutional reforms: Commute Trip Reduction Acts & programmes, Growth and Transportation Efficiency Centres
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards Standards for vehicles, which set legal max. limits for vehicle fuel use per km of driving (or the inverse kilometres or miles per litre or gallon) tested over a driving test cycle in order to encourage or require manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles. Key implementation points: ambitious targeted level of fuel efficiency performance, determined timing format tailored to the local market broad coverage (all major types) consideration for cost effectiveness of vehicles manufacturing reliable fuel economy testing procedures technical capacity for implementation and enforcement enforcement & compliance control adequate and regular update Supporting policies: Vehicle fuel economy information and labelling Fiscal measures & incentives Awareness raising and eco driving
Comparison of light duty vehicles fuel efficiency standards IEA 2013. Energy Efficiency Market Report
Fiscal measures & Incentives Fiscal measures are used to influence the types of vehicle purchased and their use by consumers through price signals. Vehicle taxes Taxes to be paid by vehicle owners, either annually or at the time of purchase. Can be aligned with fuel efficiency or CO2 emissions values of vehicles to make fuel efficient vehicles more fiscally attractive Can be combined with a rebate to customers purchasing lower emitting/fuel consuming vehicles Fuel taxes An excise tax imposed on the sale of the fuel for transportation May be able to affect both consumer vehicle choice and driving behaviour. Road pricing Charges on vehicles for usage of the road at times when its capacity falls well short of demand Varying charges can reflect the degree of congestion and smooth out peak flows Incentive to choose the time, route and mode of travel
Dr. Xianli Zhu E mail: xzhu@dtu.dk www.energyefficiencycentre.org