Beef Markets Outlook January 213 Mark Zieg AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 29
Irish Beef Markets Exports 444, Export Volumes by Destination (212) UK 231, Spain 11, France 46, Holland 36, Scandinavia 4, Italy 41, Germany 15, Ireland Export Statistics Year To Date: January October 212 % Change Partner Country 212/211 World - 15. United Kingdom - 12.69 France - 1.74 Netherlands - 17.7 Italy - 16.41 Sweden - 3.8 Spain - 7.55 Germany - 1.43 Denmark - 14.77 Belgium - 12.98 Poland - 33.9 Portugal - 36.6 Ghana 84.5 Czech Republic - 36.67 Russia - 82.1 Switzerland - 16.18 Source: Eurostat
EU Consumption determined by Economic Situation 16 14 Consumption: -1.2% in 212 12 1 8 6 211 212 4 2 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group
Consumption Outlook 213 16 14 12 Consumption: -1.2% in 212 => -.6% in 213 1 8 6 211 212 213 4 2 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group
EU Consumption Outlook Moderating 85 8 75 7 65 6.8% drop in EU consumption forecast : 212-22 55 5 29 21 211 212 215 22
Import & Export Developments in Main Markets Imports t cwe 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark 6 211 212 5 4 3 2 211 212 1 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark
Import & Export Outlook Imports t cwe 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark 6 211 212 213 5 4 3 2 211 212 213 1 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark
EU Trade Balance to 212 cwe 7 6 5 4 3 2 Imports Exports 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
Origins EU-27 Imports of beef products cwe 28 29 21 211 Jan-Sep 12 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 11-45kt Brazil 171 454 43.4% 149 7 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 78 38.9% 91 442 4.% -.4% -15kt Uruguay 66 42 16.8% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 39 473 17.3% - 3.7% Argentina -3kt 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.% 62 517 19.4% 38 83 17.% - 19.% Australia 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 17 5.6% 15 353 6.7% + 19.8% USA 6 547 1.7% 9 69 2.2% 15 29 4.% 22 914 7.1% 15 16 6.6% -.4% New Zealand 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8% 12 787 5.6% + 1.2% Namibia 1 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6% 8 975 2.8% 7 374 3.2% -.3% Switzerland 2 919.7% 4 394 1.% 4 45 1.2% 5 662 1.8% 3 438 1.5% - 18.5% Chile 2 55.6% 3 158.7% 2 441.6% 2 253.7% 1 34.6% - 1.3% Serbia 1 784.5% 99.2% 1 127.3% 785.2% 427.2% - 27.2% Botswana 1 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2% 98.3% 474.2% - 91.6% EXTRA EU 25/27395 63 431 182 378 954 322 849 228 48 % change + 9% - 12% - 15% - 5.8% Source: Comext
EU-27 Exports of beef and live animals cwe Destinations 28 29 21 211 Jan-Sep 12 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 11 Turkey 24.1% 571.2% 7 37 14.5% 166 737 26.2% 85 919 21.9% - 34.7% Russia 12 347 35.1% 5 881 2.4% 135 762 28.% 138 635 21.8% 7 32 17.9% - 3.% Lebanon 5 619 1.9% 7 838 3.1% 33 774 7.% 22 568 3.6% 18 49 4.7% - 5.9% Croatia 19 917 6.8% 25 126 1.1% 23 159 4.8% 24 969 3.9% 17 336 4.4% - 7.3% Sw itzerland 25 968 8.9% 19 72 7.7% 22 34 4.6% 26 431 4.2% 14 225 3.6% - 3.5% Algeria 1 689.6% 6 681 2.7% 16 151 3.3% 17 97 2.8% 11 399 2.9% - 23.1% Other Destinations 126 887 43.5% 125 591 5.4% 168 757 1.1% 237 927 37.5% 17 775 43.6% - 3.9% EXTRA EU 25/27 291 61 249 165 485 166 635 236 391 924 % change - 15% + 95% + 31% - 18.1% Source: Comext
EU Trade Balance Forecast 22 cwe 7 6 5 Import Levels to grow toward 4,t Exports slipping back to appprox.1,t 4 3 Imports Exports 2 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 215 22
World Beef Production 29-212 Overall decrease 425, tonnes / -.2% 12 1 8 6 29 212 4 2 Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
World Beef Production Outlook Total beef production to increase 1% 212-22 12 1 8 6 4 29 212 215 22 2 Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
Global Beef Exports have Declined Overall decrease 352, tonnes / -.7% 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 29 212 6 4 2 Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
25 Global Exports to 22 Growth of 2.7% 1,2m tonnes in global exports: 212-22 2 15 1 29 212 215 22 5 Argentina Brazil Uruguay United States Australia
Global beef Consumption and Imports tonnes (cwe) 8,. Consumption 75,. 7,. 65,. 6,. Growth of >1m tonnes in global Consumption: 212-221 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 tonnes (cwe) 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 Imports Growth of 1,6m tonnes in global Imports: 212-221 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 Source OECD-FAO
Summary Beef Markets Outlook Irish exports constrained in 212 by supplies and price competition in some markets EU consumption down 1.2% in 212 - set to decline.8% by 22 Domestic production declines to create opportunities in Fr, It, UK & NL Global beef exports declined by 35 tonnes in the last 3 years but likely to increase again by 22 Strongest international Import growth will be focussed on emerging and developing markets
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