GO TRANSIT POLITICAL ACTION TASK FORCE AGENDA MONDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2014 3:00 P.M. CHARLIE WARD ROOM, BRANTFORD CITY HALL ROLL CALL 1. DECLARATION OF CONFLICTS OF INTEREST 2. PRESENTATIONS AND DELEGATIONS Presentation 2.1 Chris Prentice, IBI Group Re: Item 3.1 - Final Draft Report - GO Transit Business Case Delegations (list, if any, available at meeting) 3. ITEMS FOR CONSIDERATION 3.1 Final Draft Report - GO Transit Business Case A. THAT the January 31, 2014 Final Draft Report entitled GO Transit Business Case as prepared by the IBI Group BE RECEIVED; and B. THAT Route Alternatives 1A (Hamilton via McMaster University) and 1B (Hamilton via Mohawk College) BE ENDORSED as the preferred interregional service links for Brantford with peak hours only service level; and C. THAT the report BE SUBMITTED to Metrolinx as the Business Case justification for Metrolinx to amend its service area to include the City of Brantford and County of Brant and as the basis for Metrolinx to introduce new intercity GO Transit bus public transportation service to Brantford; and D. THAT the findings from the GO Transit Business Case BE PRESENTED to Committee of the Whole at its March 3, 2014 meeting.
GO Transit Political Action Task Force AGENDA February 10, 2014 Page 2 4. CONSENT ITEMS 4.1 Minutes THAT the following minutes BE RECEIVED: 4.1.1 Project Initiation Meeting GO Business Case Study June 21, 2013 5. ADJOURNMENT
Draft Final Report GO Transit Business Case by IBI Group January 31, 2014
Table of Contents 1 Introduction... 1 1.1 Background... 1 1.2 Objectives... 1 1.3 Report Structure... 2 2 Market Potential... 3 2.1 Existing Public Transit Services... 3 2.1.1 GO Transit... 3 2.1.2 VIA Rail... 3 2.1.3 Greyhound... 4 2.1.4 Summary... 5 2.2 Current Demand... 5 2.2.1 Primary Trip Markets... 5 2.2.2 Demand by Mode... 7 2.3 Summary... 10 3 Service Concepts... 12 3.1 Routes... 12 3.2 Service Levels... 14 3.3 Scheduling Assumptions... 14 4 Benefits and Costs... 15 4.1 Social Benefits... 15 4.2 Revenues... 15 4.2.1 Ridership Forecast... 15 4.2.2 Fare Assumptions... 16 4.2.3 Annual Revenues... 17 4.3 Operating Costs... 17 4.4 Other Considerations... 18 4.4.1 Abbott Court Park and Ride... 18 4.4.2 Vehicle Storage... 18 4.4.3 Downtown Terminal, Stops and Shelters... 18 January 31, 2014 i
4.5 Summary... 19 5 Brantford-Operated Service... 20 5.1 Revenues... 20 5.2 Operating Costs... 20 5.2.1 Running Times... 20 5.2.2 City Operation... 21 5.2.3 Contracted Operation... 22 5.3 Other Considerations... 22 5.3.1 Capital Costs... 22 5.3.2 Staffing... 23 5.3.3 Accessibility and AODA Compliance... 23 5.3.4 Public Vehicle Operating Licence... 24 5.4 Summary... 24 6 Conclusions and Recommendations... 26 6.1 Conclusions... 26 6.2 Recommendations... 27 Appendix A Licence Plate Survey Maps... 28 Appendix B Route Schedules... 31 Appendix C Ridership and Revenue Estimates... 34 January 31, 2014 ii
Table of Exhibits Exhibit 2.1: VIA Rail Winter 2014 Weekday Timetable... 4 Exhibit 2.2: Greyhound Summer 2013 Weekday Timetable... 4 Exhibit 2.3: Travel Cost and Time Comparison... 5 Exhibit 2.4: Destinations for GGH Trips Originating in Brantford (2006 TTS)... 5 Exhibit 2.5: Mode Split for GGH Transit Trips Originating in Brantford (2006 TTS)... 6 Exhibit 2.6: Licence Plate Survey Summary... 7 Exhibit 2.7: VIA Rail Ridership Counts... 8 Exhibit 2.8: Greyhound Sales: Brantford Transit Terminal (April 2013 Avg. Weekday)... 9 Exhibit 2.9: Brantford Auto Trips (daily round trips)... 10 Exhibit 2.10: 2012/2013 Daily Round Trips from Brantford... 11 Exhibit 3.1: Route Concept Alternatives... 13 Exhibit 4.1: Forecast Daily Ridership... 16 Exhibit 4.2: Fare Assumptions... 16 Exhibit 4.3: Annual Revenue Estimates by Route and Service Span GO Transit... 17 Exhibit 4.4: Gross Annual Operating Costs by Route and Service Span GO Transit... 17 Exhibit 4.5: Forecast Daily Park and Ride Users (Full-Day Service)... 18 Exhibit 4.6: Ridership, Revenues, and Operating Costs GO Transit... 19 Exhibit 5.1: Annual Revenue Estimates by Route and Service Span BT Operation... 20 Exhibit 5.2: Route Lengths, Speeds, and Cycle Times... 21 Exhibit 5.3: Gross Annual Operating Costs Brantford Transit Operation... 21 Exhibit 5.4: Gross Annual Operating Costs Contracted Operation... 22 Exhibit 5.5: Net Annual Operating Cost Contracted and Brantford Transit Operation... 25 Exhibit 6.1: Net Annual Operating Costs-GO Transit, Brantford, and Contracted Operation... 27 January 31, 2014 iii
1 Introduction With a projected 75% increase in population over the next 30 years, Brantford is emerging as one of southern Ontario s fastest growing municipalities. To help facilitate and accommodate this growth, municipal officials have expressed interest in improving public transportation connections between the city and other municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), an area consisting of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and the outer ring of municipalities surrounding it. However, Brantford is not currently part of the service area for GO Transit, the provincial agency responsible for providing regional transit service in the GGH. This report is intended to provide the business case for GO Transit to expand its service area so that Brantford can be connected to the rest of the GGH by high-quality public transportation. 1.1 Background The GO Transit service area is defined by a regulation issued by the Minister of Transportation. Since 2012, representatives from the City of Brantford, the provincial government and Metrolinx have engaged in discussions to expand the GO Transit service area to include the city of Brantford and extend GO Transit services to the city. The primary outcome of these preliminary discussions was the decision to proceed with the preparation of a business case to justify the extension of service. This study is being carried out in conjunction with the City s review of its Transportation Master Plan (TMP). Although not formally a part of the TMP, this business case was completed recognizing the population and travel demand forecasts being developed as part of that study. 1.2 Objectives The objectives of the Business Case are to: Determine the feasibility of introducing new inter-municipal public transit service to Brantford; Establish the market potential for such a new service; Develop service concepts to meet the markets identified; Estimate the ridership, revenues, and operating costs of the alternative service concepts; Identify legislative and logistical requirements for operating the service; and Evaluate the alternative service concepts and identify preferred routes. January 31, 2014 1
1.3 Report Structure This report consists of the following five chapters: Chapter 2 Market Potential - assesses existing travel demand to and from Brantford in the context of existing public transportation services; Chapter 3 Service Concepts - identifies four route alternatives to address the travel demand identified in Chapter 2; Chapter 4 Benefits and Costs - forecasts projected ridership, revenues, and operating costs for each of the conceptual routes under the assumption that they will be operated by GO Transit; Chapter 5 Brantford-Operated Service - explores the option of the service being operated by the City and describes the costs, benefits, and logistics of this scheme; and Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations - summarizes the major findings of this business case and presents recommendations for service implementation. January 31, 2014 2
2 Market Potential This chapter: Catalogues existing transit services operating between Brantford and the GGH to establish potential competition for any new transit service; Identifies the primary GGH travel markets for Brantford residents with the aim of focusing the development of service priorities and concepts; and Determines the current daily demand on all modes between Brantford and its primary travel markets to inform ridership forecasts. 2.1 Existing Public Transit Services Public transit service between the city of Brantford and the GGH is currently provided by two operators: VIA Rail Canada and Greyhound Canada. VIA operates ten trains (five in each direction) weekdays between downtown Brantford and Toronto s Union Station, including five during peak commuting hours. Greyhound offers ten daily trips (five in each direction) between Brantford and Hamilton, eight of which begin or end in Toronto. A number of Brantford residents also travel to Toronto using GO Transit s Lakeshore West rail line. Most users drive from Brantford to stations in Burlington to catch one of the nine AM peak period trains to Toronto. Although not available for use by the general public, Mohawk College also operates a regularlyscheduled shuttle between its Fennell Street campus in Hamilton and its satellite campus in Brantford. However, with the closure of all Mohawk operations in Brantford planned for later this year, it is unlikely that the shuttle will continue to operate in the future. The services provided by these operators are further described in the following subsections. 2.1.1 GO Transit Frequent rail service is provided by GO Transit between their Aldershot Station in Burlington and Union Station in Toronto. Aldershot, as with many other GO stations, offers ample free parking to cater to passengers wishing to drive to the station. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some Brantford residents commuting to Toronto drive to Aldershot and other GO stations on the Lakeshore West line to continue their journey downtown. There are nine trains departing Aldershot for Union Station between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. and 10 trains departing Union Station for Aldershot between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. Off-peak service now operates every 30 minutes. On an express train, the travel time between Aldershot and Union Station is approximately 55 minutes; on a run making all station stops, the travel time is approximately 67 minutes. As of February 1 st 2014, fares from Aldershot are $10.55 per direction for a single cash ticket or, assuming less than 36 one-way trips per month, $9.20 per direction using a PRESTO card. Discounts are available for seniors and students. 2.1.2 VIA Rail VIA Rail provides the quickest public transit service between Brantford and downtown Toronto with an average journey time of approximately one hour and ten minutes. Trains operate between Brantford s VIA station at West Street and Wadsworth Street and Toronto s Union Station. Most trains also stop in Aldershot and Oakville, but the first eastbound trip of the day January 31, 2014 3
operates non-stop between Brantford and Toronto, while the third daily westbound trip stops only in Aldershot. The weekday timetable is shown in Exhibit 2.1. Exhibit 2.1: VIA Rail Winter 2014 Weekday Timetable Depart Brantford Eastbound Arrive Oakville Arrive Union Depart Union Westbound Arrive Oakville Arrive Brantford 07:25-08:35 07:35 07:59 08:43 08:48 09:38 10:04 12:15 12:40 13:27 12:03 12:48 13:11 16:35-17:41 16:40 17:27 17:52 17:30 17:56 18:44 20:44 21:29 21:51 19:05 19:28 20:09 A typical one-way fare in economy class between Brantford and Toronto is $34.00. However, for frequent trip makers, VIA offers a commuter pass valid for 20 one-way trips within a 30 day period. As of the time of writing, this pass is sold for $297.00, which equates to $14.85 per trip. Starting in August 2012, VIA also began charging cars to park at its lot adjacent to the rail station. The cost is $4.00 for a 12 hour period, $6.00 for a 24 hour period, or $34.00 weekly. 2.1.3 Greyhound Greyhound Canada operates intercity coach service between London and Toronto via Brantford s downtown transit terminal. Eight daily trips link Brantford and Toronto but the service is not oriented towards a typical commuting schedule as the first trip does not arrive in Toronto until 11:20AM. Also, journey times are highly susceptible to traffic conditions and can vary from 90 minutes to more than two hours and forty minutes. Commuter service is provided to and from Hamilton. Four peak period trips link the two cities with an average journey time of approximately 55 minutes. All trips stop at both McMaster University and the Hamilton GO Centre, with others serving other towns in Hamilton and Brant. Exhibit 2.2: Greyhound Summer 2013 Weekday Timetable Depart Brantford Eastbound Arrive Hamilton Arrive Toronto Depart Toronto Westbound Arrive Hamilton Arrive Brantford 06:30 07:25 - - 08:00 09:00 08:40 09:30 11:20 12:45 14:00 14:50 12:30 13:20 14:30 15:15 17:00 17:55 19:05 19:40 20:45 16:15 18:15 19:00 21:35 22:05 23:05 22:30 23:30 00:05 An advanced-purchase web fare between Brantford and Toronto is approximately $12.00 one way, but tickets can cost as much as $28.00 when purchased on the day of travel. Unlimited travel on a monthly commuting pass can be purchased for $365.00, or approximately $9.00 per direction for a daily commuter. Between Brantford and Hamilton, one-way fares range from $5.00 for an advanced-purchase web fare to $13.60 for a ticket purchased on the bus. A monthly commuting pass is $165.00, or approximately $4.13 per direction for a daily commuter. January 31, 2014 4
2.1.4 Summary Exhibit 2.3 compares the cost, frequency, and travel time of the trips made by operators of transit service between Brantford and other GGH municipalities. Exhibit 2.3: Travel Cost and Time Comparison Service Provider Brantford-Toronto Lowest Trip Cost Number of AM Peak Period Trips One-Way Travel Time VIA Rail $14.85 1 1:10 GO Transit (Aldershot) Brantford-Hamilton $8.45 + gas 9 ~1:40 Greyhound $4.13 1 0:55 VIA Rail offers the fastest travel time between Brantford and Toronto, but the service is expensive in relative terms and travellers do not have a wide choice of departure times. By comparison, parking at a GO Transit lot and riding its Lakeshore West Line is cheaper and more convenient, but the journey time is some 40% longer. Greyhound is the only operator providing service between Brantford and Hamilton; fares are low, but the journey time is long (55 minutes) relative to a comparable car trip. No carriers currently provide public transit service between Brantford and Waterloo Region. 2.2 Current Demand 2.2.1 Primary Trip Markets Exhibit 2.3 presents the destinations for all GGH-bound daily trips travelling to and from the city of Brantford based on the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS). Clearly, Hamilton and Waterloo Region represent the two largest trip markets (attracting 49% and 23% of trips, respectively) with Halton, Peel and Toronto regions attracting the majority (but a smaller individual share) of the remainder. However, as discussed below, Toronto attracts more transit trips from Brantford than any other GGH municipality due to its size and existing transit connections. As such, Hamilton, Waterloo, and Toronto are considered the three primary markets for potential transit service from Brantford. Halton and Peel were not considered as primary markets because, even though they attract a larger number of trips than Toronto, the dispersed nature of destinations within those areas make them unlikely to attract a large number of transit trips. Furthermore, transit trips to these municipalities could be served via connections from routes to Hamilton or Toronto. Exhibit 2.4: Destinations for GGH Trips Originating in Brantford (2006 TTS) 49% 23% 11% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% Hamilton Waterloo Halton Peel Toronto Niagara Wellington York Others January 31, 2014 5
Hamilton Hamilton is the primary destination for GGH-bound trips for Brantford residents with approximately 8,700 people making the journey on a daily basis. In addition to Brantford s historical link with Hamilton, the city is an important employment centre and is sufficiently close to Brantford to facilitate commuting between the two cities. Hamilton is also home to two large post-secondary institutions: McMaster University and Mohawk College. Enrollment at McMaster numbers some 30,000 while Mohawk College has approximately 12,000 students at its Hamilton Campus. As a result, Hamilton is a primary transit market for Brantford on the basis of the large number of trips travelling there. Even if a very low transit mode split is achieved, there will likely still be sufficient demand for transit to justify a basic service. Hamilton is also an attractive market for transit service because a nearly equivalent number of people make the reverse trip from Hamilton to Brantford. When travel demand is balanced is this manner, transit service can be provided more economically because revenue can be generated in both directions. Toronto As the economic heart of the GGH, the province, and the country, Toronto attracts regular trips from Brantford despite the large distance between the two cities. Although the absolute number of daily trips to Toronto is far lower than to Hamilton (and, in fact, lower than to Waterloo, Halton or Peel), it is the top destination for transit travel from Brantford. Whereas Hamilton attracts some 50 Brantford trips per day on public transportation, Toronto attracts 175. As shown in Exhibit 2.5, more than two thirds of all transit trips to the GGH from Brantford end in Toronto, making it a strong primary market. In part, this imbalance reflects the existing and historical availability of public transit service to Toronto via rail and bus and, contrastingly, the relatively poor level of service to Hamilton. Waterloo Region With 4,500 or 23% of all trips, Waterloo Region attracts the second highest number of Brantfordbased travel to the GGH. Most of these, some 2,500 trips per day, are destined for Cambridge, while a smaller number end in the cities of Kitchener (1,100) and Waterloo (400). In a similar manner to Hamilton, there has been an historic economic link between Brantford and Cambridge. The two cities are only 25 kilometers apart and are both important regional centres for manufacturing. Exhibit 2.5: Mode Split for GGH Transit Trips Originating in Brantford (2006 TTS) Auto Driver 84% Passenger 15% Transit 2% Toronto Hamilton Halton January 31, 2014 6
2.2.2 Demand by Mode This subsection estimates existing demand between Brantford and the three primary trip markets. To accomplish this, data was compiled from a variety of sources ranging from surveys conducted for the purposes of this study to large scale vehicle surveys conducted by the Ministry of Transportation. While the TTS is an appropriate tool to investigate high-level travel patterns, it is not the best source of data available to conduct a detailed study of demand between these two trip markets and was used sparingly for this analysis. The survey is poorly calibrated to travel to and from Brantford (auto volumes are calibrated only as far west as the Halton-Hamilton boundary). As such, mode-specific data sources were used, as described below. GO Transit (Park and Ride) Trips On Tuesday, June 25 th 2013 and Thursday, June 27 th 2013, IBI Group staff carried out licence plate surveys at two GO Transit park-and-ride lots: Burlington and Aldershot. These two stations were selected because they are the most readily accessible by Brantford residents. Although Aldershot is closer to Brantford than Burlington, it was hypothesized that some Brantford residents may travel further down Highway 403 to Burlington to take advantage of the lower fares from this station. The approach of the survey was to have one surveyor at each station collecting licence plate numbers from a random sample of approximately 25% of parked vehicles. Surveys took place just after the morning peak commuting period in order to capture the maximum number of vehicles at the station. Once collected, licence plate numbers were sent to the Ministry of Transportation for processing. Valid plate numbers were tagged with the Forward Sortation Area (FSA) code of the vehicle owner (i.e. the first three postal code characters), which were in turn used to determine the originating municipality of the vehicle. Exhibit 2.6 presents the results of the survey. The sample size reflects the number of valid plates that were collected during the survey, and the expansion factor is the reciprocal of the percentage of parked vehicles that were sampled. The expansion factor was multiplied by the number of vehicles with Brantford and Brant County FSAs to obtain an estimate of the total number of Brantford and Brant trip origins. Exhibit 2.6: Licence Plate Survey Summary Station Parking Capacity Parking Utilization Day 1: Tuesday, June 25 th, 2013 Aldershot 1,619 85% Burlington 2,273 90% Day 2: Thursday, June 27 th, 2013 Aldershot 1,619 85% Burlington 2,273 90% Sample Size 405 (29%) 495 (24%) 418 (30%) 690 (34%) Expansion Factor Vehicles: Sampled (Brantford/Brant) Vehicles: Expanded (Brantford/Brant) 3.40 8 / 4 27 / 14 4.13 5 / 1 21 / 4 3.29 15 / 7 49 / 23 2.96 3 / 1 9 / 3 January 31, 2014 7
The results of the Tuesday survey imply that 66 vehicles had travelled from Brantford and Brant County (48 of which were from the City of Brantford), while the Thursday survey estimated 84 (58 of which were from the City of Brantford). Although the variation between these two results is relatively large, they are within the same order of magnitude and provide a reasonable estimate of total demand. There are, however, two caveats related to the survey results. First, the FSA returned from the Ministry of Transportation is not guaranteed to be the same as the trip origin; the vehicle may be operated by a relative of the vehicle owner living elsewhere or the owner may not have updated their place of residence after moving. Second, this survey captured only vehicle-trips, not person-trips; it is possible that some commuters car-pool to the stations. This would not have been captured by the survey. Maps showing the number of registered vehicles surveyed per FSA are provided in Appendix A; each map combines the records from each station to show all the vehicles surveyed on a given date. GO Transit s biennial ridership survey was used to validate the results of the licence plate exercise. Conducted in 2011/2012, GO s latest survey recorded 79 (one-way) daily passengers on the Lakeshore West rail line that originated in Brantford. The survey also recorded 20 Brantford trip origins on GO s Lakeshore West bus service between Hamilton and Aldershot; it is likely that many of these trips continue on to Toronto and are included in the 79 rail passenger figure. Union Station was the destination of all Brantford trip origins. VIA Rail Trips Boarding and alighting counts at Brantford s VIA Rail station were taken to gain an appreciation for the number of riders using the service. Exhibit 2.7 presents the number of Toronto-bound boardings and Brantford-bound alightings for each of the 10 daily trains serving the station over a two day period. Exhibit 2.7: VIA Rail Ridership Counts To Toronto Boardings From Toronto Alightings Tuesday, July 16th 7:25 5 8:43 8 8:48 16 13:27 5 12:03 13 17:41 36 16:40 9 18:44 28 20:44 4 20:09 7 TOTAL 47 TOTAL 84 Thursday, July 18th 7:25 14 8:43 10 8:48 19 13:27 7 12:03 13 17:41 48 16:40 10 18:44 32 20:44 4 20:09 0 TOTAL 60 TOTAL 97 The results are unusual in that the total number of boardings and alightings do not balance on a daily basis: On both count days, there were significantly more alightings than boardings. Generally speaking, it is expected that boardings and alightings should balance in the long run to close trip origins and destinations. The results seen here could either be a random January 31, 2014 8
occurrence, or they could be indicative of multi-modal trip making. An example of this latter case could be a trip taken on Greyhound for its outbound leg and VIA on its return leg because of more favourable departure times, fares, or other reasons. There could also be examples of extended period (multi-day) commuting (out one day, back a day or two later). The lower number of inbound trips may be an indication that carpooling may be easier to accomplish on the outbound trip in the morning. Despite the imbalance, the counts show that regular commuters do not appear to make up a large proportion of riders. Although the number of PM peak period arrivals (17:41 and 18:44 trains) were well above average, the number of boardings on the first eastbound trip of the day was well below average on Tuesday and only slightly above average on Thursday. Greyhound Trips As agents for the coach line, Brantford Transit staff sell tickets for Greyhound Canada at their downtown terminal. Ticket sales data was provided to IBI Group for the purposes of this study. Although the data represent a good sample of trips, riders may also purchase tickets over the internet or directly from the driver. For the last outbound trip of the evening, the transit centre is unmanned and passengers must purchase their ticket in another way. These purchases are not recorded by the ticket office. A 2010 study conducted by Statistics Canada showed that 55% of travel-related purchases were made over the internet. Assuming that the Canadian average is a good representative for Brantford Greyhound users, the number of total daily trips can be extrapolated using this data. An additional 10% of trips was added to account for the tickets purchased from the driver on the last outbound trip. Below, Exhibit 2.8 presents the average number of weekday tickets sold out of this ticket office during the month of April, 2013, as well as an extrapolation of the likely daily trip total. Exhibit 2.8: Greyhound Sales: Brantford Transit Terminal (April 2013 Avg. Weekday) Destination Average Weekday Ticket Sales (Brantford Transit Terminal) Extrapolated Daily Round Trips Hamilton 20 50 Toronto 10 25 Mississauga 1 2 McMaster University 1 2 Burlington 1 2 The table provides a further indication of the destination preference among Brantford travellers with Hamilton being the primary destination while Toronto is second with roughly half the number of trips. Other locations in the GGH do not attract a significant number of trips on Greyhound. Auto Trips The Waterloo-Wellington-Brant (WWB) passenger vehicle survey was used to estimate auto passenger and auto driver demand for trips to Hamilton and Toronto. The Ministry of Transportation, Ontario conducted this licence-plate-trace/mail-back survey at ten strategic locations in the WWB area in the spring of 2012. This survey represents an excellent source of data for this project because: It is the most recent data available; At 10%, the sampling rate is higher than most other major surveys; and January 31, 2014 9
There is information about whether a reverse trip was made on the same day. Unfortunately, data for trips to and from Waterloo Region was not collected as part of the WWB survey. Instead, these trips were estimated from data published in the Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Daily auto trips to Toronto, Waterloo Region, and Hamilton are shown in Exhibit 2.9. Exhibit 2.9: Brantford Auto Trips (daily round trips) Toronto 350 150 Auto Driver Auto Passenger Waterloo 3,750 650 Hamilton 6,450 2,200-2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 The data show that, every day, approximately 8,700 round trips are made by car from Brantford to Hamilton; three-quarters of these trips are drivers while the remainder are passengers. Trips to Toronto have a higher proportion of passengers; of the 500 daily auto trips to Toronto, approximately 150, or 30%, are passengers. The 4,400 daily trips to Waterloo Region have the highest proportion of auto drivers at 85%. 2.3 Summary The preceding analysis has established the demand between Brantford and its primary trip markets. Based on the available information sources and research, Hamilton is the largest total trip market (all modes) with more than 8,700 people travelling from Brantford to Hamilton and back on a daily basis. Although trips to Toronto represent 4% of the total GGH trips from Brantford, it is considered to be the second potential market given the available GO connections and population of Toronto and the municipalities along the Lakeshore West line. Waterloo Region attracts the second highest number of Brantford-based travel to the GGH with 3,500 or 23% of all trips per day, most of these, some 2,400 trips per day, are destined for Cambridge, while a smaller number end in the cities of Kitchener (900) and Waterloo (300). Halton and Peel are not considered as primary markets because, even though they attract a larger number of trips than Toronto, there are few practical GO connections available beyond the GO rail stations in Milton, Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville. As well, the travel patterns within those areas are very dispersed which limits the potential demand for any form of direct transit service from Brantford. From a transit use perspective and share of total trips, there are currently more trips taken by transit from Brantford to Toronto than to Hamilton with approximately 175 round trips being made (26% of the trips) on a daily basis compared to approximately 50 trips to Hamilton (0.5% of trips). Overall, public transit use to both destinations is approximately 2% of all trips. Exhibit 2.10 summarizes travel to the three primary trip markets (Hamilton, Toronto and Waterloo Region) and provides a breakdown of the share of travel by mode. January 31, 2014 10
Exhibit 2.10: 2012/2013 Daily Round Trips from Brantford Mode Hamilton Waterloo Region Toronto Trips Mode Share Trips Mode Share Trips Mode Share Auto Driver 6,450 74% 3,750 85% 350 52% Auto Passenger 2,200 25% 650 15% 150 22% GO Transit Park and Ride 0 0 0 0% 80 11% Greyhound 50 0.5% 0 0% 25 4% VIA Rail 0 0 0 0% 75 11% TOTAL 8,700 100% 4,400 100% 680 100% All three primary markets have sufficient demand to warrant the provision of a new public transit service. Hamilton and Waterloo are large regional centres that could be served with new direct bus service, while trips to Toronto could be served by new connecting service to GO Transit. On the basis of this demand, the next chapter develops route concepts to serve these primary markets. January 31, 2014 11
3 Service Concepts This chapter outlines the development of the route concepts designed to serve the primary markets identified in Chapter 2. Specifically, the objectives of the chapter are to: Outline the development of the service concepts including routing, stops, and service levels; and Discuss special circumstances that should be addressed at the time of detailed service planning. 3.1 Routes Four alternative route concepts were developed to serve the primary travel markets identified in Chapter 2. Each of these routes would operate from the downtown transit terminal in order to maximize connectivity with the Brantford Transit network and to provide a convenient central access point for riders. The routes are described in detail below and are illustrated in Exhibit 3.1. Alternative 1A Hamilton GO Centre via McMaster University: This alternative would travel from downtown Brantford via Colborne/Dalhousie and Wayne Gretzky Parkway to Highway 403. The route would then divert to McMaster University before terminating at Hamilton GO Centre via Main/King Street. At Hamilton GO Centre, connections would be available to GO Transit s Lakeshore West train (peak periods only), QEW express bus (direct to Union Station), and Highway 407 bus. Alternative 1B Hamilton GO Centre via Mohawk College: This alternative provides similar service to 1A, except that it serves Mohawk College instead of McMaster University. The route would exit Highway 403 at the Lincoln Alexander Parkway and arrive at Mohawk via Garth Street and Fennell Avenue before reaching the downtown via West Fifth Street. Alternative 2 Aldershot GO Station via McMaster University: Alternative 2 would bypass downtown Hamilton in favour of providing a more direct connection to GO Transit Lakeshore West rail service at Aldershot Station in Burlington. An intermediate stop would be maintained at McMaster University. Alternative 3 Ainslie Street Transit Terminal, Cambridge: This alternative would travel north from the downtown terminal via Brant Avenue and St. Paul Avenue. The route would then use King George Road/Highway 24 to reach Grand River Transit s Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. Optionally, the route could be extended to connect to GO Transit bus services at Cambridge Smart!Centres. This extension would also serve manufacturing and industrial employment located along Franklin Boulevard. Alternatives 1A, 1B, and 2 would stop at an existing park-and-ride lot located on Abbott Court (near Highway 403 at Garden Avenue). The lot, owned and operated by the MTO, would increase the potential catchment area of the new service by providing travellers the option to drive to the new service. It should be noted that GO Transit will be introducing two additional peak hour trains from Hamilton in 2015. However, these trains will run from the former CN station at James Street North, not the downtown Hunter Street (former TH&B/CP) station. As well, all day GO train service, when introduced, will operate from the James North station. If alternatives 1A or 1B are implemented, the service may have to be extended to serve this new station in the future. January 31, 2014 12
Exhibit 3.1: Route Concept Alternatives HALTON WATERLOO McMaster University Legend Alternative 1A: Hamilton o-via McMaster University Alternative 1 B: Hamilton o-via Mohawk College o-alternative 2: Aldershot GO o-alternative 3: Cambridge Brantford Transit Terminal Court BRANT IBI GROUP January 31, 2014 13
3.2 Service Levels Route frequencies were assumed to be one bus per hour in order to provide sufficient convenience to attract riders. Although more frequent service would attract additional ridership, the number of new riders would not justify the expense of increasing service levels. Three service span options are proposed for evaluation: Peak Period Service: Seven weekday round trips between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. and between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m.; Weekday Service: Thirteen weekday round trips between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m.; and Six Day Service: Thirteen round trips between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. Monday Saturday. Although these were the base options considered for this Business Case, additional service levels could be considered at a later date. For example, service into the late evening would provide connections for students with night classes, while Sunday service would facilitate weekend travel to and from Brantford. However, at projected ridership levels, such improvements would increase the net operating cost of the services. As a result, it is proposed that, for the purposes of this business case, only the three service level options noted above be considered. 3.3 Scheduling Assumptions High-level schedules were developed for each route alternative in order to facilitate the costing process. Buses were assumed to depart the Brantford Transit terminal every hour, on the hour, and that their operating speeds closely resembled current GO Bus speeds. It was additionally assumed that not all stops would be made on all trips. For example, trips departing Hamilton for Brantford in the a.m. peak were assumed to not stop at McMaster University because of the low demand during this period. Similarly, trips departing Brantford during the p.m. peak were also not assumed to stop at McMaster. Assumed schedules for each route alternative can be found in Appendix B. It should be recognized that real-world conditions will necessitate revisions to these schedules prior to implementation. For example, ensuring connections to departing GO trains while also maintaining transfer connections in downtown Brantford will require detailed study that was not necessary for this business case. The schedules used for this study reflect the best estimates available and are sufficient for the purposes of this study. January 31, 2014 14
4 Benefits and Costs This chapter analyzes the costs and benefits of each route identified in Chapter 3. The analysis will: Identify the social benefits associated with the new service Present ridership forecasts; Describe fare assumptions; Determine the operating cost for each route and service span alternative; and 4.1 Social Benefits The introduction of new inter-municipal transit service from Brantford will bring a number of benefits to both the city itself and to the wider area that the route will serve. Most significantly, the new service would greatly improve travel options for residents particularly those that do not have access to a private vehicle. Where service currently exists, it is offered at irregular intervals and not always at convenient commuting times. In the case of Waterloo Region, no direct public transit services are available. New service would greatly facilitate travel without the need for a car, opening up new employment and scholastic opportunities and improving the quality of life for many residents. For residents that do have access to a vehicle, new transit service would provide the opportunity to save money by leaving their car at home or at a park-and-ride lot. As frequent users of public transit, students represent a particularly important market for the new service. The new route would allow Brantford-based students to continue to live at home while studying in a different city, saving them money on rent and the cost of owning a private vehicle. Each of the proposed routes provides connections to major post-secondary institutions, be it McMaster University and Mohawk College in Hamilton or Laurier University and the University of Waterloo (via GRT s iexpress service between Cambridge and Waterloo). Finally, it should be recognized that continued growth in Brantford will lead to increasing congestion on the major traffic arteries that serve it particularly Highway 403. The introduction of new public transit service is an important step towards managing this congestion. Congestion mitigation, particularly in the context of reduced auto trips, also brings significant environmental benefits including reductions in greenhouse gases and other harmful pollutants that result from long-distance auto trips. 4.2 Revenues Revenues for the new service will be a function of ridership, the average fare paid by those riders, and the nature of the co-fare agreement to be put in place between GO and Brantford Transit. Ultimately, decisions regarding fare levels and co-fare agreements will be the responsibility of GO Transit, but informed assumptions have been made here to estimate likely revenues. 4.2.1 Ridership Forecast Ridership estimates were developed on the basis of trips currently being made between Brantford and the areas proposed to be served by each route. Informed by transit mode splits observed elsewhere in the GGH, rates of diversion from other travel modes were applied to determine the number of riders that would use the service at different times of day. Data from a January 31, 2014 15
number of different sources were used for this purpose, including from the MTO 2012 Waterloo Wellington Brant passenger vehicle surveys, the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey (TTS), Greyhound ticket sales, and counts of VIA rail riders and Burlington park and ride users. The new service can be expected to achieve an approximate 1 to 3% mode split depending on the route alternative. This is consistent with GO Bus mode splits observed in the 2006 TTS. Under the peak-only scenario, daily ridership to Hamilton on routes 1A and 1B is projected to be in the order of 150 and 135 riders, respectively, while route 2 is projected to attract 120 daily riders to/from Aldershot and route 3 45 daily riders to/from Cambridge. These ridership levels are the same magnitude as forecasts established in past successful GO business cases. A 2006 report to expand GO Bus service to Peterborough predicted approximately 125 peak period riders with minimal potential for growth. Bus service was later introduced in 2009. A complete breakdown of all ridership forecasts is provided in Appendix C. It should be noted that the ridership estimates provided in Appendix C represent mature levels. That is, they represent the full potential once the travelling public is aware of the service and has adjusted their travel patterns accordingly. Typically, ridership in the first year of service is lower, and can be expected to be some 60% of mature levels. Beyond the first two years of service, ridership can be expected to grow in line with Brantford s population, or approximately 1.3% per year to 2021. A breakdown of daily ridership by route alternative is presented in Exhibit 4.1. Exhibit 4.1: Forecast Daily Ridership Peak-Only Service Full-Day Service Route Year One Year Two 2021 Year One Year Two 2021 1A: Hamilton via McMaster 90 150 170 150 250 280 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk 80 135 150 140 235 265 2: Aldershot via McMaster 70 120 135 100 175 200 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) 25 45 50 35 60 70 4.2.2 Fare Assumptions GO Transit operates a zone-based fare system, meaning that fares are a function of where a rider is coming from and where they are going to. Generally speaking, fares increase with the distance travelled, but there is no official formula that relates fare and distance. However, using current fare levels and route distances, it was possible to estimate such a formula and apply it to the new routes being considered. As such, the assumed fares for longer route alternatives are higher than for shorter route alternatives. It was also necessary to estimate the average fare paid for each route. Average fare is less than the adult cash fare because of discounts for students, seniors, and repeat trips (via PRESTO). Based on levels observed elsewhere in the GO system, the average fare paid was assumed to be 70% of the adult cash fare. On the basis of these assumptions, the fares for each route are summarized in Exhibit 4.2. Exhibit 4.2: Fare Assumptions Route Adult Cash Fare Average Fare Paid 1A: Hamilton via McMaster $7.25 $5.10 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk $7.25 $5.10 2: Aldershot via McMaster $7.70 $5.40 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) $5.65 $4.00 January 31, 2014 16
4.2.3 Annual Revenues Annual revenues for each route and service span were calculated by multiplying the total number of rides by the average fare. Estimated co-fare payments to Brantford Transit were then deducted from this total. GO Transit and many of its municipal partners have co-fare agreements that allow riders to access GO routes by local transit for free (or at discounted rates). Under these agreements, the municipal service provider accepts valid GO Transit fare media as the fare for the local route. They are then reimbursed by GO Transit for 75% of the local fare up to $1.75 per rider. Preliminary discussions with GO Transit have indicated that they are prepared to enter into a cofare agreement with Brantford Transit. As such, Brantford would receive co-fare payments from GO for each rider that uses Brantford Transit to access the service, regardless of their final destination. Consistent with patterns observed elsewhere in the GGH, it was assumed that 30% of riders will access the new service by local routes; Brantford Transit would offer their ride for free and would receive $1.75 for each rider from GO Transit. Exhibit 4.3 presents revenue estimates for each of the four route options and three service span scenarios, net of the co-fare deduction. As it attracts the highest ridership, route 1A returned the highest revenues. Exhibit 4.3: Annual Revenue Estimates by Route and Service Span GO Transit Route Peak-Only Weekday Six-Day 1A: Hamilton via McMaster $173,000 $292,000 $352,000 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk $154,000 $268,000 $323,000 2: Aldershot via McMaster $147,000 $214,000 $258,000 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) $37,000 $51,000 $61,000 4.3 Operating Costs Operating cost estimates for each route alternative and service span were provided by GO Transit and are shown in Exhibit 4.4. The costs are based on schedules provided by IBI Group, as well as GO s internal estimates of route kilometres, travel time, and dwelling time. It was determined that, with the exception of the Cambridge route, three buses would be required to provide hourly service, corresponding to three, five, and six drivers for peak-only, weekday, and six-day service, respectively. Exhibit 4.4: Gross Annual Operating Costs by Route and Service Span GO Transit Route Peak-Only Weekday Six-Day 1A: Hamilton via McMaster $505,000 $965,000 $1,170,000 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk $480,000 $890,000 $1,075,000 2: Aldershot via McMaster $565,000 $1,090,000 $1,325,000 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) $310,000 $575,000 $700,000 These costs are comparable to those provided by GO Transit in previous business case studies for GO bus expansion. For the 2006 Peterborough GO feasibility study, the cost to provide seven round trips (consistent with the peak-only service being considered in this report) is estimated at $600,000 in 2005 dollars. January 31, 2014 17
It should be noted that the cost estimates for route 2: Aldershot via McMaster are based on the assumption that service would overlap with GO s existing route #15, which provides service between McMaster University and Aldershot GO Station. If sufficient capacity exists, costs savings could be realized by combining these two routes, either by extending certain route 15 trips to Brantford or by introducing a transfer at McMaster University. Further study will be required to assess whether this is feasible if the Aldershot route is selected for implementation. 4.4 Other Considerations 4.4.1 Abbott Court Park and Ride A new park-and-ride lot with approximately 50 spaces has been recently constructed on Abbott Court at Highway 403 in Brantford s east end. Route alternatives 1A, 1B, or 2 would stop at the lot, providing users a direct ride to Hamilton or Aldershot. For those riders travelling to Hamilton, it is estimated that 50% of riders in the morning peak period will use the park and ride lot, while 25% of riders will use it in off-peak periods. For persons destined for Aldershot, 50% of Brantford residents that currently use GO Transit s park-and-ride lots in Burlington are assumed to shift to the Abbott Court lot. Forecast daily park and ride users (assuming full-day service) are presented in Exhibit 4.5. Overall, it is estimated that 20 to 25 people per day would potentially use the park and ride lot in the first year, increasing to 40 in year 2 and 45 by 2021. These figures assume full-day service. Exhibit 4.5: Forecast Daily Park and Ride Users (Full-Day Service) Route Year One Year Two 2021 1A: Hamilton via McMaster 25 40 45 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk 20 30 35 2: Aldershot via McMaster 20 35 40 3: Cambridge 0 0 0 A visual inspection of the lot during working hours has revealed that very few spaces are available for new users. On this basis, it is likely that the lot will need to be expanded to accommodate the users of the new service. A cost estimate will need to be developed in with with the MTO and take into account the design and location characteristics of the site. 4.4.2 Vehicle Storage If a service is introduced, GO will wish to store its buses in Brantford in order to minimize deadheading (that is, the distance between where the bus is stored and where revenue service begins). In other GGH municipalities, buses are typically stored at facilities belonging to the local city/transit agency. GO has included in its costing an allowance for storage of buses locally. They would likely approach the City to store buses at the City transit facility. While indoor storage would be preferred, outdoor storage may be acceptable. 4.4.3 Downtown Terminal, Stops and Shelters Space will need to be provided at the downtown terminal for the route(s). Given that the terminal is at capacity, the required space will need to be on-street. The length would be approximately 60 feet per loading area. Modifications may be required to street and adjacent sidewalk area to facilitate passenger loading. Additional and specific stops for the routes may also be desired. The design and cost estimates of these improvements would need to be determined at the time the service is confirmed. January 31, 2014 18
4.5 Summary This chapter has established the benefits and costs of introducing new GO Transit service to the City of Brantford. Such a service would provide more travel options for Brantford residents, increase the mobility of students, mitigate congestion, and help the environment. Exhibit 4.6 presents a summary of the annual riders, revenues, and annual operating costs for each of the 12 route and service span alternatives. Annual ridership was developed by multiplying appropriate daily to annual factors while the net costs are the difference between the gross operating costs presented in Exhibit 4.4 and the annual revenues presented in Exhibit 4.3. The routes with the highest ridership potential are 1A, 1B and 2. As with most public transit routes, the cost of providing the service exceeds the revenues collected. As such, the net cost increases with increases to service. The lowest net cost is for peak-only service on route 3; however, this route also has the lowest ridership potential. Routes 1A and 1B present a better balance between the number of riders served and net operating cost. For this reason, routes 1A and 1B are the preferred routes. Exhibit 4.6: Ridership, Revenues, and Operating Costs GO Transit Route Annual Riders Annual Revenues Annual Op.Costs Net Annual Cost 1A: Hamilton via McMaster Peak-Only 38,000 $173,000 $505,000 $332,000 Weekday 64,000 $292,000 $965,000 $673,000 Six-Day 77,300 $352,000 $1,170,000 $818,000 1B: Hamilton via Mohawk Peak-Only 33,800 $154,000 $480,000 $326,000 Weekday 58,800 $268,000 $890,000 $622,000 Six-Day 71,000 $323,000 $1,075,000 $752,000 2: Aldershot via McMaster Peak-Only 30,300 $147,000 $565,000 $418,000 Weekday 44,000 $214,000 $1,090,000 $876,000 Six-Day 53,200 $258,000 $1,325,000 $1,067,000 3: Cambridge (Ainslie Street) Peak-Only 10,800 $37,000 $310,000 $273,000 Weekday 14,800 $51,000 $575,000 $524,000 Six-Day 17,800 $61,000 $700,000 $639,000 January 31, 2014 19