GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM NATURAL GAS VEHICLES Prepared For: Canadian Natural Gas Vehicle Alliance Prepared By Consultants Inc. 11657 Summit Crescent Delta, BC Canada, V4E 2Z2 Date: January 31, 2003
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6% from 1990 levels by the period 2008 to 2012. Transportation represents the single largest source of Canada s GHG emissions, accounting for 27 per cent of the total. Transportation emissions arise from all sectors of the commercial economy and are inherent to the movement of people and goods for social and recreational activities. Hence, measures to reduce emissions from the transportation sector must be considered very carefully and respect the ramifications of such measures on the economy and peoples day-to-day activities. Emissions from transportation are growing faster than the average for all emissions and are forecast to exceed 1990 levels by 27 per cent in 2010 and 42 per cent by 2020. The objectives of this work are to document the benefits of the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel in three classes of vehicles. The vehicles classes that are of interest are: Light duty vehicles using compressed natural gas, with a focus on full size passenger cars and vans. Medium duty vehicles that could be fuelled with either compressed or liquefied natural gas. These might be refuse haulers or urban buses. Heavy-duty trucks that use liquefied natural gas and the Westport Cycle engines. For each of these classes of vehicles the impact that the fuel and engine has on greenhouse gas emissions, on the cost effectiveness of the greenhouse gas emission reduction and on criteria air contaminants are calculated and reported. Natural gas can be used as a vehicle fuel in light duty vehicles and in various medium and heavy-duty vehicle applications. The use of natural gas in current vehicles results in reduced greenhouse gas emissions for most but not all scenarios. The GHG reductions are greatest for light duty vehicles where the natural gas replaces gasoline and in heavy-duty vehicles that use the new Westport Cycle. The use of natural gas in spark ignited converted diesel engines produces the smallest reduction in GHG emissions. If these medium duty applications use LNG as the fuel, there could be small increases in GHG emissions depending on how the LNG is produced. The greenhouse gas emission reductions for light duty natural gas vehicles in Canada for the year 2002 average 21.0% compared to gasoline powered vehicles. Depending on the province, the full cycle GHG reduction varies from 16.3 to 21.7%. There is the potential to build more efficient natural gas engines that take full advantage of natural gas s high-octane value. It is assumed that some progress in this area will be continue to be made and that by 2010 the GHG reduction offered by natural gas vehicles will increase to 25.9% across Canada, with a provincial range of 21.9 to 26.6%. These results are summarized in the following table. Table ES-1 Summary of GHG Results Light Duty Vehicles % GHG Change 2002 % GHG Change 2010 Canada -21.0-25.9 British Columbia -21.6-26.6 Alberta -16.3-21.9 Saskatchewan -17.3-22.7 Ontario -21.7-26.1 i
The natural gas engines used in medium duty trucks and buses are generally modified diesel engines. The modifications include a lower compression ratio and the addition of a spark ignition system to start the combustion. The efficiency of these engines is lower than the equivalent diesel engine. The greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of diesel fuel are generally lower than those associated with gasoline since there is less energy used in the refinery for diesel production that there is for gasoline production. These two factors contribute to a lower percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for the medium duty natural gas engines compared to the reduction for light duty vehicles and engines. These medium duty vehicles can be fuelled by compressed or liquefied natural gas. The choice of fuel depends in part on the desired range of the vehicle. The liquefied natural gas can be produced by a variety of processes, all of which have different greenhouse gas emissions. The results of the GHG modelling are shown in the following table. Table ES-2 Summary of GHG Results Medium Duty Vehicles 2002 2010 % GHG Change % GHG Change Compressed Natural Gas -2.6-13.2 Liquefied Natural Gas Efficient Large Scale Plants 9.1-2.9 Small Scale Plants 1.3-10.7 The engines used in heavy-duty vehicles are the new Westport Cycle engines. They use a combination of high-pressure natural gas injection and a diesel fuel pilot to achieve almost the same relative efficiency of a diesel engine. The result is a much larger reduction in GHG emissions than the spark ignited engines used in the medium duty vehicles. Table ES-3 Summary of GHG Results Heavy Duty Vehicles 2002 2010 % GHG Change % GHG Change Liquefied Natural Gas Efficient Large Scale Plants -10.5-21.6 Small Scale Plants -16.8-27.7 Policy makers are interested in the relative costs of the various options available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. The cost effectiveness of the various options considered here has been calculated based on the methodology developed by Natural Resources Canada. The results for the different vehicle options are summarized in the following tables. Table ES-4 Cost Effectiveness LDV, Crown Victoria Taxi Taxes Excluded Taxes Included Government Perspective Consumer Perspective $/tonne GHG reduced $/tonne GHG reduced 2002 88.04 45.55 2010, discounted to 2002 7.19-9.68 ii
Table ES-5 Cost Effectiveness Summary, Transit Buses Taxes Excluded Taxes Included Government Perspective Consumer Perspective $/tonne GHG reduced $/tonne GHG reduced Compressed Natural Gas 2002 984.64 59.54 2010, discounted to 2002 7.90-79.60 Liquefied Natural Gas Efficient Large Scale Plants 2002 GHG s increase GHG s increase 2010, discounted to 2002 176.60-221.40 Small Scale Plants 2002 GHG s increase GHG s increase 2010, discounted to 2002 48.21-60.44 Table ES-6 Cost Effectiveness Summary, Class 8 Trucks Taxes Excluded Taxes Included Government Perspective Consumer Perspective $/tonne GHG reduced $/tonne GHG reduced Efficient Large Scale Plants 2002 200.68-22.77 2010, discounted to 2002 17.49-38.59 Small Scale Plants 2002 141.43-16.05 2010, discounted to 2002 13.68-30.20 The natural gas vehicles also offer reductions in most of the criteria air contaminants. For each of the vehicle and fuelling pathways considered the life cycle criteria air contaminants are calculated and presented. iii
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I 1. INTRODUCTION... 1 1.1 METHODS OF ANALYZING EMISSIONS... 1 1.2 GHGENIUS MODEL... 2 1.3 OBJECTIVES... 4 2. NATURAL GAS AS A VEHICLE FUEL... 6 2.1 UPSTREAM NATURAL GAS SYSTEM... 6 2.2 COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS... 8 2.3 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS... 9 3. LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES... 11 3.1 VEHICLE DESCRIPTIONS... 11 3.2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS... 13 3.3 COST EFFECTIVENESS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTIONS... 15 3.4 COST EFFECTIVENESS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS GAS PRICES... 21 3.5 OTHER EMISSIONS... 22 3.5.1 Certification Data... 22 3.5.2 In Use Emissions from Fleet Data... 23 3.5.3 EPA Mobile6... 24 3.5.4 GHGenius Results... 25 4. MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES... 27 4.1 VEHICLE DATA... 27 4.2 ENGINE AND EMISSION DATA... 27 4.3 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS... 32 4.3.1 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles... 32 4.3.2 Liquefied Natural Gas Vehicles... 34 4.4 COST EFFECTIVENESS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTIONS... 36 4.4.1 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles... 37 4.4.2 Liquefied Natural Gas Vehicles... 37 4.5 OTHER EMISSIONS... 38 4.5.1 Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles... 38 4.5.2 Liquefied Natural Gas Vehicles... 39 5. HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES... 41 5.1 VEHICLE DESCRIPTIONS... 41 5.2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS... 42 5.3 COST EFFECTIVENESS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTIONS... 43 5.4 OTHER EMISSIONS... 44 6. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION... 46 6.1 LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES... 46 6.2 MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES... 47 6.3 HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES... 50 7. REFERENCES... 52 v
TABLE OF TABLES TABLE ES-1 TABLE ES-2 TABLE ES-3 TABLE ES-4 TABLE ES-5 TABLE ES-6 SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES... I SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES... II SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES... II COST EFFECTIVENESS LDV, CROWN VICTORIA TAXI... II COST EFFECTIVENESS SUMMARY, TRANSIT BUSES... III COST EFFECTIVENESS SUMMARY, CLASS 8 TRUCKS... III TABLE 1-1 GHG EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORTATION... 1 TABLE 2-1 INPUTS FOR NATURAL GAS UPSTREAM EMISSIONS... 6 TABLE 2-2 UPSTREAM NATURAL GAS EMISSIONS... 6 TABLE 2-3 GASOLINE EMISSIONS... 7 TABLE 2-4 DIESEL EMISSIONS... 7 TABLE 2-5 GAS COMPOSITIONS... 7 TABLE 2-6 EMISSIONS ASSOCIATED WITH COMPRESSION AND DISPENSING... 8 TABLE 2-7 COMPARISON OF CNG AND GASOLINE GHG EMISSIONS- CANADA 2002.. 8 TABLE 2-8 COMPARISON OF CNG AND GASOLINE GHG EMISSIONS- US 2002... 9 TABLE 2-9 LNG GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CANADA 2002... 10 TABLE 2-10 LNG GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS UNITED STATES 2002... 10 TABLE 3-1 NATURAL GAS VEHICLES 2003.... 11 TABLE 3-2 LDV VEHICLE PARAMETERS... 11 TABLE 3-3 NGV RELATIVE VEHICLE EFFICIENCIES... 12 TABLE 3-4 FUEL ECONOMY TEST DATA... 13 TABLE 3-5 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CROWN VICTORIA 2002... 14 TABLE 3-6 GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS 2002... 14 TABLE 3-7 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CROWN VICTORIA 2010... 15 vi
TABLE 3-8 GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS 2010... 15 TABLE 3-9 NATURAL GAS PRICING... 17 TABLE 3-10 VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS... 17 TABLE 3-11 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS WITHOUT TAX INCENTIVES... 18 TABLE 3-12 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS WITH TAX INCENTIVES... 19 TABLE 3-13 2010 COST EFFECTIVENESS CROWN VICTORIA... 20 TABLE 3-14 GAS PRICING SCENARIOS... 21 TABLE 3-15 COST EFFECTIVENESS ALTERNATIVE PRICING SCENARIOS... 21 TABLE 3-16 COST EFFECTIVENESS DISTRIBUTION AND COMPRESSION SENSITIVITY... 22 TABLE 3-17 2002 VEHICLE CERTIFICATION DATA... 22 TABLE 3-18 1996 CROWN VICTORIA FLEET DATA... 23 TABLE 3-19 1999 E350 FLEET DATA... 23 TABLE 3-20 MOBILE6 EMISSION FACTORS... 24 TABLE 3-21 GHGENIUS EXHAUST EMISSION RESULTS... 25 TABLE 3-22 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS - 2002... 26 TABLE 4-1 MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLE APPLICATIONS... 27 TABLE 4-2 DIESEL EMISSION STANDARDS... 28 TABLE 4-3 COMPARISON CUMMINS ENGINES... 28 TABLE 4-4 DYNAMOMETER TEST RESULTS... 29 TABLE 4-5 DYNAMOMETER TEST RESULTS- BUSES... 30 TABLE 4-6 EMISSION RESULTS DETROIT DIESEL ATLANTA BUSES... 30 TABLE 4-7 GHGENIUS INPUT VALUES... 31 TABLE 4-8 ENGINE EMISSION RATES FROM GHGENIUS -2002... 32 TABLE 4-9 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TRANSIT BUS 2002... 33 TABLE 4-10 GHG EMISSION REDUCTIONS 2002... 33 TABLE 4-11 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TRANSIT BUS 2010... 34 vii
TABLE 4-12 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS LNG TRANSIT BUS 2002... 35 TABLE 4-13 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS LNG TRANSIT BUS 2010... 36 TABLE 4-14 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS URBAN BUSES... 37 TABLE 4-15 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS LNG URBAN BUSES LARGE SCALE LIQUEFACTION... 37 TABLE 4-16 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS LNG URBAN BUSES SMALL SCALE LIQUEFACTION... 38 TABLE 4-17 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS CNG BUSES 2002... 39 TABLE 4-18 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS LNG BUSES 2002... 40 TABLE 5-1 HEAVY-DUTY ENGINE COMPARISON... 41 TABLE 5-2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS LNG WESTPORT CYCLE TRUCK 2002... 42 TABLE 5-3 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS LNG WESTPORT CYCLE TRUCK 2010... 43 TABLE 5-4 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS WESTPORT CYCLE - LARGE SCALE LIQUEFACTION... 43 TABLE 5-5 GHG COST EFFECTIVENESS WESTPORT CYCLE - SMALL SCALE LIQUEFACTION... 44 TABLE 5-6 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS LNG WESTPORT CYCLE 2002... 45 TABLE 6-1 SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES... 46 TABLE 6-2 COST EFFECTIVENESS SUMMARY, CROWN VICTORIA TAXI... 47 TABLE 6-3 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS - LDV 2002... 47 TABLE 6-4 SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES... 48 TABLE 6-5 COST EFFECTIVENESS SUMMARY, MEDIUM DUTY VEHICLES... 48 TABLE 6-6 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS CNG BUSES 2002... 49 TABLE 6-7 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS LNG BUSES 2002... 50 TABLE 6-8 SUMMARY OF GHG RESULTS HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES... 50 TABLE 6-9 COST EFFECTIVENESS SUMMARY, HEAVY DUTY VEHICLES... 51 TABLE 6-10 LIFE CYCLE CRITERIA AIR CONTAMINANTS LNG WESTPORT CYCLE 2002... 51 viii
TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 1-1 FULL CYCLE INCLUDING FUEL AND VEHICLE CYCLES... 2 FIGURE 3-1 RELATIVE EFFICIENCY NATURAL GAS LDV S... 12 FIGURE 3-2 ENERGY PRICE FORECASTS... 16 FIGURE 3-3 SENSITIVITY OF COST EFFECTIVENESS TO INCREMENTAL VEHICLE COST... 19 FIGURE 3-4 SENSITIVITY OF COST EFFECTIVENESS TO INCREMENTAL VEHICLE COST, INCLUDING TAXES... 20 FIGURE 4-1 MEDIUM DUTY NATURAL GAS ENGINE RELATIVE EFFICIENCY... 32 ix
x
1. INTRODUCTION Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6% from 1990 levels by the period 2008 to 2012. Transportation represents the single largest source of Canada s GHG emissions, accounting for 27 per cent of the total. Transportation emissions arise from all sectors of the commercial economy and are inherent to the movement of people and goods for social and recreational activities. Hence, measures to reduce emissions from the transportation sector must be considered very carefully and respect the ramifications of such measures on the economy and peoples day-to-day activities. Emissions from transportation are growing faster than the average for all emissions and are forecast to exceed 1990 levels by 27 per cent in 2010 and 42 per cent by 2020. The GHG emissions from transportation are shown in the following table (Environment Canada, 1997, 1999, 2001). Table 1-1 GHG Emissions from Transportation 1990 1999 2010 K tonnes % of Total K tonnes % of Total K tonnes % of Total Carbon Dioxide 140,000 30.2 179,000 32.8 189,000 31.8 Methane 23 0.7 35 0.8 21 0.5 Nitrous Oxides 29 32.6 29 17.0 25 12.5 CO 2 Equivalents 149,000 25.2 189,000 27.0 197,000 25.8 There are a number of the ways of reducing emissions such as reducing energy use or intensity, switching to biofuels, or switching to fuels with lower carbon content. The use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel is an example of switching to a fuel with lower carbon content. This report analyzes the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of using natural gas as a vehicle fuel. 1.1 METHODS OF ANALYZING EMISSIONS The full cycle concept of analysis considers all inputs into the production and use of a fuel. It combines the fuel production, vehicle manufacture and fuel use in a single analysis (see Figure 1-1.) It is also referred to as the fuel cycle by some authors. The ultimate result is a value that can be used for comparison of different commodities on the same basis, such as per unit of fuel energy or per kilometre driven. Greenhouse gas emissions over the full cycle include all significant sources of these emissions from production of the energy source (i.e. crude oil, biomass, natural gas, etc.), through fuel processing, distribution, and onward to combustion in a motor vehicle for motive power. A life cycle analysis should also include greenhouse gas emissions from vehicle material and assembly as these emissions are affected by the choice of alternative fuel/vehicle technology. Wide ranges of emission sources are involved in the production and distribution of fuels, and these vary depending on the type of fuel. 1
Figure 1-1 Full Cycle including Fuel and Vehicle Cycles 1.2 GHGENIUS MODEL The GHGenius greenhouse gas model is based on a model originally developed by Dr. Mark Delucchi in the late 1980 s. That original model was partially Canadianzed by Delucchi in 1998. In 1999, Levelton (1999) further developed the model for Canada for the Transportation Table of the National Climate Change Process. Subsequent to that work, Levelton and used the model for evaluation of ethanol produced from corn (Levelton, 1999b) and ethanol produced from lignocellulosics (Levelton, 1999c) for projects for Agriculture and Agri-Foods Canada. used the model for an evaluation of ethanol production using wheat in Alberta (Cheminfo) and for evaluating various fuel cell cycles for Methanex Corporation (, 2000). In 2001 the data from most of these projects was incorporated into a model update, some changes to the structure of the model were made to make it more user friendly and it was renamed GHGenius. In 2001 Levelton,, and Delucchi undertook a major upgrade of the model for Natural Resources Canada. This involved adding more detail to some of the model calculations, adding data for Mexico, expanding the forecast period to 2050 and providing the ability to regionalize the output on a North American basis. This report has utilized version 2.1F of the model, which incorporates the latest fuel cycles and more comprehensive output data than earlier versions. The natural gas vehicle energy and emissions data in the model has been reviewed as part of this work. Where appropriate some changes to the model input data have been made where more up to date information was available. These changes to the model have been identified in this report. The GHGenius model is capable of estimating full fuel cycle emissions of the primary greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the criteria pollutants, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, sulphur oxides, non-methane organic compounds (also known as VOC s) and total particulate matter from combustion sources. The greenhouse gases included in the calculations for this report are carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O). The emissions have been weighted according to IPCC guidelines where CO 2 has a weighting factor of 1.0, CH 4 is assigned a value of 21.0 and N 2 O has a weighting factor of 310. These are the 100-year global warming potential (GWP) multipliers recommended by the IPCC. Throughout the report, we will report primarily CO 2 equivalent values. This will be the weighted sum of the three greenhouse gases. In some areas, this will be further broken down to provide detail on the separate gases. 2
Other gases and contaminants associated with the production and use of fossil and renewable fuels, such as carbon monoxide, non-methane organic gases, oxides of nitrogen and particulates, also have the potential to influence climate change, either directly or indirectly. The global warming potential of these other gases has not been considered in this study, to be consistent with the approach being used by the National Climate Change Secretariat. The full cycle model predicts emissions for past, present and future years using historical data or correlations for changes in energy and process parameters with time that are stored in the model. The model is thus capable of analyzing what is likely to happen in future years as technologies develop. The model allows for segmentation of the predicted emissions into characteristic steps in the production, refining, distribution and use of fuels and the production of motor vehicles. The fuel cycle segments considered in the model are as follows: Vehicle Operation Emissions associated with the use of the fuel in the vehicle. Includes all three greenhouse gases. Fuel Dispensing at the Retail Level Emissions associated with the transfer of the fuel at a service station from storage into the vehicles. Includes electricity for pumping, fugitive emissions and spills. Fuel Storage and Distribution at all Stages Emissions associated with storage and handling of fuel products at terminals, bulk plants and service stations. Includes storage emissions, electricity for pumping, space heating and lighting. Fuel Production (as in production from raw materials) Direct and indirect emissions associated with conversion of the feedstock into a saleable fuel product. Includes process emissions, combustion emissions for process heat/steam, electricity generation, fugitive emissions and emissions from the life cycle of chemicals used for ethanol fuel cycles. Feedstock Transport Direct and indirect emissions from transport of feedstock, including pumping, compression, leaks, fugitive emissions, and transportation from point of origin to the fuel refining plant. Import/export, transport distances and the modes of transport are considered. Feedstock Production and Recovery Direct and indirect emissions from recovery and processing of the raw feedstock, including fugitive emissions from storage, handling, upstream processing prior to transmission, and mining. Fertilizer Manufacture Direct and indirect life cycle emissions from fertilizers, and pesticides used for biomass feedstock production, including raw material recovery, transport and manufacturing of chemicals. Land use changes and cultivation associated with biomass derived fuels 3
Emissions associated with the change in the land use in cultivation of crops, including N 2 O from application of fertilizer, changes in soil carbon and biomass, methane emissions from soil and energy used for land cultivation. Carbon in Fuel from Air Carbon dioxide emissions credit arising from use of a renewable carbon source (Biomass) that obtains carbon from the air. Leaks and flaring of greenhouse gases associated with production of oil and gas Fugitive hydrocarbon emissions and flaring emissions associated with oil and gas production. Emissions displaced by co-products of alternative fuels Emissions displaced by DDGS, a co-product of ethanol production, equal to emissions from corn feed and soybean meal displaced net of emissions from transport of the product to the end-users. Vehicle assembly and transport Emissions associated with the manufacture and transport of the vehicle to the point of sale, amortized over the life of the vehicle. Materials used in the vehicles Emissions from the manufacture of the materials used to manufacture the vehicle, amortized over the life of the vehicle. The model inputs are all in US units. Most of the full cycle energy and greenhouse analyses found in the literature use US units. We have generally presented emission results in grams/mile units and the cost effectiveness results in Canadian $/tonne. 1.3 OBJECTIVES The objectives of this work are to document the benefits of the use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel in three classes of vehicles. The vehicles classes that are of interest are: Light duty vehicles using compressed natural gas, with a focus on full size vehicles and vans. Medium duty vehicles that could be fuelled with either compressed or liquefied natural gas. These might be refuse haulers or urban buses. Heavy-duty trucks that use liquefied natural gas and the Westport Cycle engines. For each of these classes of vehicles the impact that the fuel and engine has on greenhouse gas emissions, on the cost effectiveness of the greenhouse gas emission reduction and on criteria air contaminants will be calculated and reported. The report also discusses how the results may differ in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario and how they will change between 2002 and 2010. The GHGenius model has good data for the upstream emissions from the production and distribution of natural gas. The data for the emissions of criteria air contaminants from light duty vehicles is based on the US EPA emissions model Mobile6. The fuel economy data will be adjusted to reflect that of the target vehicles and the actual 2002 performance of the vehicles. 4
The best data to use for the medium and heavy-duty vehicles, for both the natural gas engines and the diesel engines that they are compared with, has been assembled and used in the model. The entire vehicle related parameters used in the model have thoroughly reviewed as part of this work. The production of liquefied natural gas can be accomplished by a variety of means and there have been some significant changes in technology and energy efficiency in the recent past. The more promising of these technologies will be reviewed and their impact on emissions will be identified. The goal of the work is to prepare a technical report on the impacts of using natural gas as a vehicle fuel. The report has been written in clear language so that it can be understood by a wide audience. 5
2. NATURAL GAS AS A VEHICLE FUEL Natural gas has been commercially used as a vehicle fuel in Canada since the early 1980 s. Almost all of this fuel has been compressed natural gas. There are now 129 public compressed natural gas refuelling stations in Canada (Canadian Natural Gas Vehicle Alliance). There is growing interest in liquefied natural gas as a fuel for medium and heavyduty vehicles. The advantage of liquefied natural gas is that the energy density is higher and thus the vehicles can obtain more range, a critical feature for acceptance by the commercial fleet operators. 2.1 UPSTREAM NATURAL GAS SYSTEM The GHGenius model has Canada specific information included for the upstream (to the burner tip or inlet to conversion system) emissions for natural gas production. The data that was used for the inputs was taken from the Canadian Gas Association publication Air Emissions from Natural Gas. This Canada specific data for energy used to produce natural gas and for methane losses is summarized in the following table. The base year for the data is 1996 and it is assumed that there is a 1% improvement in losses in energy recovery and distribution per year and a 0.5% improvement in processing, transportation and storage. Table 2-1 Inputs for Natural Gas Upstream Emissions Recovery Energy Pipeline Energy Gas Lost in Recovery Gas Lost in Processing Gas Lost in Transportation and Storage Gas Lost in Distribution GHGenius 556,481 BTU/Ton NG 0.031 BTU/BTU 0.61% of gas recovered 0.11% of gas processed 0.28% of gas transported 0.17% of gas distributed The model does not allocate the methane losses from the transmission and storage segment by distance directly. In practice these emissions are probably lower in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan where the gas does not travel as far and higher in Ontario and Quebec. The other emissions are independent of distance. The greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production and distribution of natural gas up to a compressor at a station are shown in the following table. All emissions in the report are presented as grams of CO 2 equivalent using the 100 year IPCC global warming potential factors. Table 2-2 Upstream Natural Gas Emissions Natural Gas to NGV Stations 2002 2010 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Distribution and Storage 2,327 2,307 Fuel Production 3,039 3,047 Feedstock Recovery 899 899 Gas Leaks 3,945 3,683 CO 2 Removed 676 676 Total 10,886 10,612 6
These emissions are significantly less than the emissions associated with crude oil production and refining in Canada. This accounts for part of the reduced greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas for vehicles. The average emissions associated with gasoline for the two years of interest are shown in the following table. The driving force behind the increased emissions is the changing crude oil slate. The model has equations for both energy efficiency improvements in oil sands and heavy oil production and for the changing mixture of crude oil types expected over time. The net effect is that more heavy oil and tar sand production offsets the improved energy efficiency of those operations. The model also projects efficiency gains at the oil refineries partially offset by changing gasoline standards. Table 2-3 Gasoline Emissions Gasoline Delivered to Station 2002 2010 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Distribution and Storage 1,311 1,249 Fuel Production 10,832 10,736 Feedstock Recovery 9,229 10,394 Gas Leaks 2,740 3,683 CO 2 Removed 0 0 Total 24,112 26,062 The emissions associated with diesel fuel are shown in the following table. The diesel fuel specification is changed after 2006 to require less than 15 ppm sulphur. This will require some extra energy use in the refinery, which has been accounted for in the model. Table 2-4 Diesel Emissions Diesel Delivered to Station 2002 2010 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Distribution and Storage 1,186 1,176 Fuel Production 7,200 7,898 Feedstock Recovery 9,488 10,697 Gas Leaks 3,091 2,932 CO 2 Removed 0 0 Total 20,965 22,703 The composition of the natural gas has been set to equal that reported by Radian. Table 2-5 Gas Compositions % Vol. Methane 94.4 Ethane 2.7 Propane 0.4 Butane 0.1 Pentane plus 0.0 Carbon Dioxide 0.5 Nitrogen 0.0 Total 0.999 7
2.2 COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS Compressed natural gas refuelling stations take natural gas from the distribution grid and compress the gas to approximately 3600 psi, at which pressure it is stored onsite in tanks. The distribution grid pressure can vary from less than 30 psi to as high as 600 psi depending on the location of the station. An average of 65 psi has been used for modelling. The gas is dispensed from the storage tanks to the vehicle by the pressure differential between the storage tanks and the vehicle. The compressor is usually driven by an electric motor, although natural gas engines have been used for some systems around the world. The energy consumed during the compression stage is a function of the compressor inlet pressure and the compressor outlet pressure. Since the emissions associated with electricity production vary from one province to the next depending on the mix of generating systems, there can be some differences in emissions for compressed natural gas between provinces. Alberta and Saskatchewan with their high proportion of coal fired electric generators have the highest emissions for compression. The emissions associated with the compression and dispensing of the fuel is shown in the following table for the four provinces and two years of interest. The differences between 2002 and 2010 are driven by the changing mix of electrical generating equipment in the provinces. Table 2-6 Emissions Associated with Compression and Dispensing 2002 2010 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Canada 395 486 British Columbia 151 160 Alberta 2,184 2,114 Saskatchewan 1,803 1,790 Ontario 129 389 The emissions of greenhouse gases associated with compressed natural gas for Canada for the year 2002 are compared to the emissions for gasoline in the following table. Table 2-7 Comparison of CNG and Gasoline GHG Emissions- Canada 2002 Gasoline CNG Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Dispensing 95 395 Fuel Distribution and Storage 1,311 2,327 Fuel Production 10,832 3,039 Feedstock Recovery 9,229 898 Gas Leaks 2,740 3,945 CO 2 Removed 0 676 Total 24,207 11,280 The GHGenius model is also capable of modeling the emissions in the United States. There are significant differences in the natural gas industry, the oil refineries and the electric power generators in the US compared to Canada. The following table shows the same comparison between gasoline and CNG for the United States in the year 2002. 8
Table 2-8 Comparison of CNG and Gasoline GHG Emissions- US 2002 Gasoline CNG Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Dispensing 376 1,571 Fuel Distribution and Storage 893 2,509 Fuel Production 15,070 1,500 Feedstock Recovery 1,279 0 Gas Leaks 6,701 1,676 CO 2 Removed 3,522 8,865 Total 27,841 16,121 2.3 LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS Natural gas can be liquefied and stored as a liquid if the temperature is reduced to 161C. The fuel must be stored under moderate pressures of 50 to 150 psi in an insulated container to reduce the heat transfer and the re-gasification of the liquefied natural gas. The primary advantage of LNG is its storage density. The density is 600 times greater than at atmospheric conditions. The storage density of CNG by comparison is approximately 200 times that at atmospheric conditions. There are a number of refrigeration processes that are used to cool and liquefy the natural gas. Greenhouse gas emissions arise from the substantial amount of energy required to drive motors and compressors in the refrigeration process; as well there can be some carbon dioxide in the natural gas that must be removed prior to liquefaction and there can be methane leaks from the process. The energy required for the liquefaction of the natural gas can vary from 6% to 30% of the energy in the LNG. Delucchi (1998) has assumed that large plants require 18% fuel gas to drive the process, Wang (1999) has assumed that new plants will require 9% of the energy in the LNG and that it is supplied 98% from natural gas and 2% by electricity. The Australia Greenhouse Gas Office has reported on the total plant emissions for a proposed project in Australia and compared the emissions to a plant that was based on 1995 technology. For the 1995 technology, they reported emissions of 24,400 g CO 2 eq/million BTU and for the new plant designed to minimize the GHG emissions the total emission rate was reduced to 16,200 g CO 2 eq/million BTU. LNG is used primarily as means of moving remote gas to markets and for peak shaving applications where gas is liquefied and stored in periods of low demand and then gasified and consumed at high demand periods. These types of LNG plants are large and are not necessarily located in locations that are convenient for transportation applications. One of the interesting technologies that is being developed for small-scale liquefaction systems is the turboexpander technology developed by Idaho National Engineering and Environment Laboratory (INEEL). The concept is to use a turboexpander to drop the pressure of a highpressure gas pipeline down to the local distribution pressure and to cool a portion of the gas as it expands through the expansion device. There is very little outside energy that must be applied to this system it is assumed that only 2% of the energy produced is used in the system. INEEL is developing systems that would produce 5,000 to 10,000 US Gallons per day of LNG. The system is designed to produce low cost LNG but a side benefit is that the greenhouse gases produced by the liquefaction process are also reduced. 9
There are also GHG emissions after the LNG is produced. The base assumptions in the model are that there are three product transfers of LNG and that the loss of LNG at each transfer was 2% by volume in 1995 and that 50% of the boil off is captured for reliquefaction or reuse. The rate of loss of boil off is assumed to drop at 5% per year after 1995. These assumptions can be modified. The greenhouse gas emissions for four scenarios are compared in the following table. Two of the scenarios involve large-scale liquefaction plants that may already exist and two involve the use of the energy efficient turboexpander systems. For each type of plant, two different product transfer and loss cases are shown. The amount of boil off captured and the annual improvements have not been changed from the base. There is a significant range in of greenhouse gas emissions possible depending on the scenario. Table 2-9 LNG Greenhouse Gas Emissions Canada 2002 Large Scale Large Scale Small Scale Small Scale Energy used 18% 12% 2% 2% Energy type Natural Gas Natural Gas Electricity Electricity LNG losses/transfer 2% 0.5% 2% 0.5% No. transfers 3 3 1 1 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Dispensing 12,066 7,795 1,089 1,077 Fuel Distribution and 2,866 2,822 2,342 2,330 Storage Fuel Production 3,098 3,051 3,059 3,043 Feedstock Recovery 916 902 905 900 Gas Leaks 11,335 5,385 6,451 4,465 CO 2 Removed 689 679 681 677 Total 30,971 20,634 14,526 12,493 For comparison the GHG emissions for LNG in the United States are shown in the following table for the same conditions. Table 2-10 LNG Greenhouse Gas Emissions United States 2002 Large Scale Large Scale Small Scale Small Scale Energy used 18% 12% 2% 2% Energy type Natural Gas Natural Gas Electricity Electricity LNG losses/transfer 2% 0.5% 2% 0.5% No. transfers 3 3 1 1 Grams CO 2 /million BTU Grams CO 2 /million BTU Fuel Dispensing 12,750 8,237 4,327 4,282 Fuel Distribution and 3,080 3,032 2,526 2,513 Storage Fuel Production 1,526 1,503 1,510 1,502 Feedstock Recovery 1,705 1,680 1,687 1,678 Gas Leaks 14,851 8,847 10,714 8,707 CO 2 Removed 696 685 688 685 Total 34,608 23,984 21,452 19,367 10
3. LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES Natural gas can be used in any size of vehicle. In North America, natural gas is available from the original equipment manufacturers in vehicles ranging from the Honda Civic to full size cars such as the Ford Crown Victoria and vans and pickup trucks. The full range of vehicles offered in North America is shown in the following table. Table 3-1 Natural Gas Vehicles 2003. Manufacturer Vehicle Engine Fuel Honda Civic GX 1.7L, 4 Cyl Dedicated CNG DaimlerChrysler Dodge Ram Van 5.2 L V8 Dedicated CNG Ford F 150 Pickup 5.4L V8 Bi-fuel CNG F 150 Pickup 5.4L V8 Dedicated CNG E Series Van, Wagon, Cutaway 5.4L V8 Dedicated CNG Crown Victoria 5.4L V8 Dedicated CNG General Motors Silverado, Sierra 6.0L V8 Bi-fuel CNG Express, Savana 6.0L V8 Bi-fuel CNG Express, Savana 6.0L V8 Dedicated CNG Cavalier 2.2L, 4 Cyl Bi-fuel CNG 3.1 VEHICLE DESCRIPTIONS Most of the natural gas vehicles are large with relatively low fuel economy ratings. This is driven in part by the fact that natural gas is usually less expensive than gasoline but the vehicles are more expensive. The total cost of ownership is more attractive for vehicles that consume large amounts of fuel. While this does not effect the percentage reductions in greenhouse gas emissions available from natural gas vehicles, it does impact the cost effectiveness of emissions reductions by natural gas vehicles. It also means that relatively large total reductions in transportation emissions can be achieved by replacing a small number of vehicles. Two vehicles have been chosen for the modeling work: the Crown Victoria, a full size passenger car and the E350 Van, which is often used in courier type service. The details of these vehicles and their gasoline counterparts are summarized in the following table. All of the data is from the US EPA database. The emission data is from the manufacturers certification test. Table 3-2 LDV Vehicle Parameters Crown Victoria Crown Victoria E350 Gasoline E350 CNG Gasoline CNG City Fuel Economy, 17 15 13 12 mpg US Highway Fuel 25 22 17 14 Economy, mpg US CO, G/mile 0.68 0.48 0.79 0.77 Aldehydes, G/mile 0 0.0003 0.001 0.0008 NMOG, G/mile 0.044 0.0019 0.088 0.009 NOx, G/mile 0.09 0.01 0.14 0.11 11
One of the key parameters in the GHGenius is the relative engine efficiency ratio between a gasoline engine and the alternative fuel engine efficiency. The fuels can have different relative efficiencies for the city and highway portions of the driving. The model makes its own calculation of vehicle weight impacts resulting from the fuel tank differences between fuels. The relative efficiency for the fuels can also change over time depending on the fuel. In the case of natural gas, with the high octane rating, the natural gas engines are projected to become more efficient over time as manufacturers design their engines to take advantage of the fuel properties. The relative efficiencies of a number of vehicles based on their EPA test data are shown in the following table. A gasoline vehicle has by definition a relative efficiency of 1.0. Table 3-3 NGV Relative Vehicle Efficiencies Vehicle City Cycle Highway Cycle Combined (55/45) 2002 Crown Victoria 0.83 0.92 0.87 2001Ford E250 0.92 0.92 0.92 2003 Dodge Ram 0.93 0.94 0.93 2002 Honda Civic 0.97 0.89 0.93 2001 Toyota Camry 0.96 0.94 0.95 Average 0.92 0.92 0.92 The Ford relative efficiencies are low compared to some of the other natural gas vehicles available. This value has a significant impact on the greenhouse gas reductions possible by using natural gas. With this data, the relative fuel economy information for light duty natural gas has been altered in the model to better reflect the current performance. The new efficiency results are shown in the following figure. The relative efficiency results for the year 2002 are 0.92 and for the year 2010, the projection is 0.96. Figure 3-1 Relative Efficiency Natural Gas LDV s 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 NG Relative Efficiency 0.95 0.90 0.85 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year 12
Actual performance in the real world can be different than vehicles achieve under controlled test conditions. This can be a result of different road and load conditions, different driving styles and other factors. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has published reports on two NG vehicle fleet trials: one involved Ford Victoria taxi cabs (NREL, 1999) and the other Ford E350 vans (NREL, 2000). The fuel economy results from these tests are shown and compared in the following table. The results are inconclusive with the Crown Victoria getting better fuel economy in the real world than on the dynamometer test but the E350 van showing the opposite trend. If the real world relative efficiency of CNG vehicles is better than shown in the dynamometer fuel economy tests then the projected greenhouse gas emission reductions will be conservative. Table 3-4 Fuel Economy Test Data In Use Dynamometer Test USMPG USMPG Crown Victoria CNG 17.30 15.9 Gasoline 17.31 17.9 CNG/Gasoline 1.0 0.89 E350 CNG 10.6 11.77 Gasoline 11.7 12.18 CNG/Gasoline 0.91 0.97 3.2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The greenhouse gas emissions for a Ford Crown Victoria are shown in the following table for both the gasoline version and the natural gas version. The calculations are for the year 2002 and the US EPA fuel economy ratings for the gasoline Crown Victoria of 17 mpg in the city and 25 mpg for the highway cycle are used as the model inputs. The vehicle manufacturing related emissions are higher for the NG vehicle because of the different type of fuel tank. While the emissions in g/mile are different for each of the natural gas vehicles because of the different fuel economies, the percent reductions will be the same for the vehicles as long as the relative efficiencies are the same. The results shown in the following table assume the average electricity mix in Canada. This table includes the emissions from the use of the natural gas in the vehicle whereas the tables in Section 2 of this report only dealt with the emissions up to the compressor in some cases and the nozzle in other cases. The units in Section 2 were grams of CO 2 equivalent/million BTU delivered and in Section 3; the units are in grams of CO 2 equivalent per mile driven. 13
Table 3-5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Crown Victoria 2002 Gasoline Natural gas G/mile G/mile Vehicle operation 425.4 373.7 Fuel dispensing 0.6 2.7 Fuel storage and distribution 8.1 16.0 Fuel production 81.4 20.9 Feedstock transport 1.2 0.0 Feedstock and fertilizer production 56.9 6.2 CH 4 and CO 2 leaks and flares 17.2 31.7 Emissions displaced by co-products 0.0 0.0 Sub total (fuel cycle) 590.8 451.1 % Changes (fuel cycle) -21.6 Vehicle assembly and transport 10.5 11.0 Materials in vehicles (incl. storage) and 46.7 49.7 lube oil production/use Grand total 648.0 511.9 % Changes to gasoline -21.0 It was shown earlier that the source of electricity used for the natural gas compressor does have an impact on the greenhouse gas emissions. In the following table the percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for a number of the provinces are shown. For this calculation, no attempt has been made to adjust the gasoline emissions to each province but there are some small differences that will impact the numbers. For example, the distance that crude oil or gasoline is pipeline and trucked will differ from province to province but that has not been accounted for. In all cases, there is a significant reduction in GHG emissions for the natural gas vehicles. Table 3-6 GHG Emission Reductions 2002 % GHG Change Canada -21.0 British Columbia -21.6 Alberta -16.3 Saskatchewan -17.3 Ontario -21.7 By the year 2010, it is expected that there will be further efficiency gains with the natural gas engines with respect to the gasoline internal combustion engine. There are a number of other efficiency gains throughout the economy but these are partially offset by other changes expected such as electricity becoming more carbon intense in future years. The projected GHG emissions in 2010 are shown in the following table. The natural gas vehicles are exhibiting a larger percentage reduction in GHG than in 2002 mostly due to the expected engine improvements. 14
Table 3-7 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Crown Victoria 2010 Gasoline Natural gas G/mile G/mile Vehicle operation 428.1 354.7 Fuel dispensing 0.7 3.0 Fuel storage and distribution 7.7 15.0 Fuel production 80.3 19.8 Feedstock transport 1.2 0.0 Feedstock and fertilizer production 63.9 5.9 CH 4 and CO 2 leaks and flares 16.3 28.4 Emissions displaced by co-products 0.0 0.0 Sub total (fuel cycle) 598.2 426.8 % Changes (fuel cycle) -26.8 Vehicle assembly and transport 10.2 10.6 Materials in vehicles (incl. storage) and 43.8 45.8 lube oil production/use Grand total 652.2 483.2 % Changes to gasoline -25.9 Approximately 2.8% of the total GHG emissions in 2010 from the natural gas vehicle are due to the vehicle methane emissions. If these could be reduced by 95% (to a level comparable to the gasoline vehicle), by using a more methane selective catalyst then the reduction in GHG emissions from natural gas vehicles would increase to 27.9%. The differences in the emission reductions in each of the provinces of interest are shown in the following table. As is the case in 2002 there is a significant reduction in GHG emissions in all of the provinces. There are some small relative changes from the 2002 data as the model has projections of the electricity mix for each province for future years. The differences in the changing electricity mix account for the differences. Table 3-8 GHG Emission Reductions 2010 % GHG Change Canada -25.9 British Columbia -26.6 Alberta -21.9 Saskatchewan -22.7 Ontario -26.1 3.3 COST EFFECTIVENESS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTIONS There are many options available for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but they all have different costs and effectiveness. It is important to compare the options on an equivalent basis. GHGenius does this for transportation fuels. It follows a methodology developed by Natural Resources Canada. The GHG emissions over the life of a vehicle are compared to the difference in vehicle initial cost, maintenance cost and fuel cost. The future costs are discounted over time to provide a common basis for comparison. The discount rate used is 10%. 15
The cost effectiveness of an option can change over time as fuel prices or incremental vehicle costs change. Cost effectiveness can be different in different parts of the country due both to fuel prices and emission profiles and it be different from one vehicle to another depending on the miles travelled and the fuel used. It is also possible to develop cost effectiveness values for consumers that are different from governments because of the existence of tax incentives. There are therefore a wide variety of cost effectiveness values that can be calculated for natural gas vehicles. Analyses that provide only one value for an option risk losing many attractive solutions that are not covered by the option. This is particularly true for alternatives such as natural gas where are large portion of the cost effectiveness is driven by the incremental vehicle cost. In order to ensure that attractive solutions are not lost, a number of cost effectiveness calculations are performed for natural gas vehicles. For the light duty vehicles, two different vehicles used in different services are examined in different regions of the country and for different periods. The fuel assumptions used here are that crude oil costs $25 US/bbl. This equates to a pretax rack gasoline price in Canada of 31.3 cents per litre. The distribution and retail costs add 5.5 cents per litre making the pretax retail cost 36.8 cents per litre. The historical and possible future relationship between crude oil prices in Canada and natural gas prices are shown in the following figure. The crude oil price is the Edmonton Par price and the natural gas price is the Alberta Plant Gate Index. The ratio shown is the gas price divided by the oil price where both are converted to a common energy measurement. The future price forecasts are from Sproule (2003), a Canadian petroleum consulting company. Figure 3-2 Energy Price Forecasts Gas to Oil Ratio 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 16
There has been wide fluctuations in the ratio over the past ten years but the ratio has been trending higher over time. On a forward basis the ratio is approximately 0.77. If crude oil is $25 US/bbl then using the 0.77 factor, the price of natural gas in Alberta is estimated to be $4.80/GJ when the crude oil price is $25/bbl US. The price of natural gas at a service station will be the composed of the price of gas, the location differential between Alberta and the province of interest, the local distribution charge and finally the compression charge. In the following table this data is presented for BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario. Table 3-9 Natural Gas Pricing BC Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario Canada $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ $/GJ Gas Cost 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 Gas Cost Differential to 0.20 0 0.15 Included 0.10 Alberta below Local Distribution Cost 2.30 1.05 1.50 2.90 1.90 Compression Cost 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Total 10.30 8.85 9.45 10.70 9.80 For the year 2010 it is assumed that there are more NG vehicles in use and that the compression costs have decline as a result of the higher utilization rates of the compressors, a value of $2.00/GJ will be used. Utility companies typically offer incentives to purchase the vehicles. This helps to lower the vehicle cost and make them more attractive to purchasers. These incentives are recovered by the companies through the gas costs or the compression charges. The value of these incentives has been factored into the local distribution costs in the table. The GHGenius model has been used to evaluate the cost effectiveness from a number of perspectives. Two light duty vehicles have been chosen. The specifics of the vehicles are summarized in the following table. The incremental vehicle cost for 2002 is the difference in the US Government GSA purchase price for vehicles converted to Canadian dollars (GSA). The 2010 difference is an estimate based on higher volume production of the vehicles. It has been assumed that the maintenance costs are the same for the gasoline and natural gas versions and the economic life of these high mileage vehicles is assumed to be 5 years for the taxi (500,000 miles) and eight years for the van (400,000 miles). Table 3-10 Vehicle Characteristics Crown Victoria E350 Van Service Taxi Courier/Delivery Fuel economy, gasoline version 18.0 mpg 13.3 mpg Annual miles traveled, miles 100,000 50,000 Incremental vehicle cost 2002 $6,000 $8,000 Incremental vehicle cost 2010 $2,000 $2,000 The cost effectiveness for these two vehicles in the years 2002 and 2010 are summarized in the following table. The average gas costs for Canada have been used in the calculations. The values for the year 2010 are very low compared to other transportation options. They reflect the sensitivity of natural gas vehicles to the incremental vehicle pricing. These calculations are done on a tax excluded basis as that is the way that the Federal Government has looked at the cost effectiveness of transportation options. 17