Global EV Outlook 217 Marine GORNER Vienna, 28 September 218 IEA
Electric Vehicle Initiative Government-to-government forum, now comprising 15 countries Currently chaired by China and coordinated by the IEA Released several analytical publications (Global EV Outlook, City casebook) Engaged stakeholders in high-level roundtables Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22) Just launched the EV3@3 Campaign, aiming to achieve a 3% market share for EVs by 23
Global EV Outlook 217 Annual EVI report drafted at IEA Data reporting (EV stock, sales, EVSE, battery costs) Policy analysis and TCO assessment CO 2 impact and role of EVs in low carbon scenarios (23 timeframe) Insights on grid integration
Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical Global electric car fleet 2 Others Germany 1 5 1 France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway 5 Japan 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 USA China The global electric car fleet reached 2 million units in circulation last year. Growth rates observed in 216 and before (>4%) need to be maintained in future years
China United States Norway United Kingdom France Japan Germany Netherlands Sweden Others New electric car registrations (thousands) Market share (216) New electric car registrations reach 75 units in 216 Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales shares in selected countries, 21-16 216 BEV sales (%) 35 35% 216 PHEV sales (%) 3 3% 21 25 2 15 1 25% 2% 15% 1% 211 212 213 5 5% 214 % 215 216 216 market share 95% of global electric car sales in 216 took place in 1 countries, and 6 countries had a market share above 1%: Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, France, United Kingdom, China
E-mobility is also gaining ground in non-car modes; China leads the way Electric 2-wheelers: > 2 million, mainly in China. In other countries: ~2 in India, ~3 in the Netherlands, ~1 in the UK Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: ~4 million in China Electric buses: 35 in China. In Europe: deployment stage and ambitious procurement plans
Charging outlets (thousands) Year-on-year growth rate EVSE deployment rates were higher than e-car adoption rates in 216 Global charging outlets, 21-16 2 5 2 Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW) Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla Superchargers, inductive chargers 5% 4% Private chargers Publicly available fast chargers 1 5 3% Publicly available slow chargers 1 2% Growth rate of publicly available fast chargers 5 1% Growth rate of publicly accessible slow chargers 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 % Growth rate of private chargers Publicly accessible infrastructure is growing to support the emerging EV market, especially publicly accessible fast chargers. This shows encouraging signs in addressing the chicken-and-egg issue.
Global distribution of electric cars and EVSE outlets EVSE outlets by country and type of charger, 216 Electric car stock 2 million Publicly available slow chargers 212 outlets Publicly available fast chargers 11 outlets China 7% 6% 7% 7% 28% 32% 5% 7% 8% 13% 8% 12% 25% 17% 5% 5% 81% Japan United States United Kingdom Germany France Norway Netherlands Canada Others Publicly accessible EVSE deployment varies greatly between markets and private chargers are estimated to be six times more numerous than publicly accessible chargers
Frequency of charging Norway study confirms home charging is predominant Charging habits for a sample of Norwegian electric car users, 216 1% 9% Daily 8% 7% 3-5 times per week 6% 5% 4% One or twice a week Less frequently 3% 2% Never 1% % Home Workplace Other (public, commercial and fast chargers) BEV Home Workplace Other (public, commercial and fast chargers) PHEV Source: Learning from Norwegian Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Users, Norway Institute of Transport Economics 216 The rate of fast charging infrastructure use is very low and is usually planned. Several factors could explain this, including an early market effect.
EV/EVSE ratio Will EV vs. public EVSE ratios converge as EV markets grow? EV/EVSE ratios in various EV markets (publicly accessible EVSE) 3 25 2 Slow Fast 15 Assumption used for fast charging 1 Assumption used for slow charging 5 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Electric car stock share % 1% 2% 3% 4% Electric car market share There is wide variability in EV/EVSE ratios in current market conditions. More advanced markets suggest that this could converge towards 15 EVs per slow charger and 13 EVs per fast charger.
Electric cars in the vehicle stock (millions) Prospect for EV uptake in different scenarios Global electric car fleet 22 2 IEA B2DS 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Consistent with the ambition of the EV3@3 campaign IEA 2DS Paris Declaration IEA RTS Historical 4 2 21 215 22 225 23 Cumulative country targets (as of 216) Cumulative OEMs announcements (estimate) EVs will be needed to meet sustainability goals, as suggested by the EV3@3 campaign target. Early action, active government support and industry commitment are essential.
Publicly accessible chargers (millions) Prospects for EVSE uptake in different scenarios (based on EV secanrios) Global publicly accessible EVSE stock 15 225 15 23 1 1 5 5 Today RTS Paris Declaration 2DS B2DS Today RTS Paris Declaration 2DS B2DS Slow Fast Depending on the scenario considered, EVSE outlets will range between 2 and 7 million in 225 and between 4 and 15 million by 23. Interoperability will be key.
TWh Impact of EV adoption on global electricity demand Global electricity demand, 215 and 23, 2DS 3 25 2 15 1 5 Industry Buildings Transport and Other EVs Total 215 23 The additional energy demand from electric car loads is sizeable but largely manageable in comparison with total energy use and additional loads arising in other sectors.
Conclusion and further questions Mass electrification seems inevitable, together with large scale EVSE implementation Understanding the relevance of EVSE own energy use and charging efficiency is of interest to EVI activities and for the Global EV Outlook series: Does it represent a sizeable share of EVs total electricity use? Does it depend on the car (battery) or on the charger? Who should pay for that energy? Are there sizeable differences between slow and fast (or ultra-fast) charging? Do communication and interoperability features impact chargers own energy use? What are V2G capabilities impacts? Thank you for your attention.
Additional slides
Electric car sales are correlated to changes in EV policies BEV and PHEV changes in incentives in a selection of countries, 216 215 vs. 216 policy 215 vs. 216 sales Country developments growth 216 sales BEV PHEV BEV PHEV BEV PHEV China ~ 75% 3% 257 79 United States ~ 22% 7% 86 731 72 885 Norway ~ 6% 164% 29 52 2 66 United Kingdom ~ 4% 42% 1 59 27 43 France ~ 26% 36% 21 758 7 749 Japan ~ 48% -34% 15 461 9 39 Germany ~ -6% 2% 11 322 13 29 Netherlands ~ 47% -5% 3 737 2 74 Sweden ~ % 86% 2 951 1 464 Canada ~ 19% 147% 5 22 6 36 Denmark -71% -49% 1 218 182 South Korea ~ 75% -4% 5 99 164 Changes in electric car incentives, especially for vehicle purchase, can have an immediate and sizeable impact on electric car sales and steer the market towards either BEV or PHEV preference.
National average Beijing Shanghai National average Amsterdam National average San Francisco National average Oslo Bergen National average Stockholm National average Copenhagen National average London EV market share Cities can be a privileged space for EV support and deployment Market share of electric cars in leading EV countries compared to EV-friendly cities, 216 5% 47.7% 45% 4% 35% 3% 28.8% 36.% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1.4% 12.2% 7.3% 6.5% 6.4%.9% 5.% 3.4% 6.2% 3.6%.6% 1.4% 1.7% China Netherlands United States Norway Sweden Denmark United Kingdom In complement of government support, cities can implement measures to enhance the valueproposition of driving electric and act as innovation test-beds for the future of mobility
Battery cost (USD/kWh) Battery energy density (Wh/L) Battery costs and range as key factors for the success of e-mobility Evolution of battery energy density and cost, 29-16, and future prospects 1 5 Conventional lithium ion 9 45 Advanced lithium ion Beyond lithium ion 8 4 7 6 35 3 US DOE battery cost (BEV) US DOE battery cost (PHEV) Cost claimed by GM and Tesla (BEV) 5 4 25 2 GM battery cost target (BEV) Tesla battery cost target (BEV) 3 15 US DOE battery cost target (PHEV) 2 1 US DOE energy density (PHEV) 1 5 US DOE energy density (BEV) 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 22 222 Potential US DOE energy density target (PHEV) Battery costs and energy density progresses are expected to keep delivering positive outcomes. This will further help lowering adoption barriers.
215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 215 23 Powertrain and fuel costs over 3.5 years of use (USD) Cost-competitiveness prospects and policy needs Comparative cost of passenger car technologies by country/region in the 2DS, 215 and 23 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Engine Engine improvements Battery Electric motor Home charger Fuel Fuel Tripling mileage case United States China Japan Europe ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV ICE PHEV BEV Achieving cost-competitiveness over the next decade will require policy instruments to allow market scale-up, reflect the cost of externalities of ICEs, and encourage synergies with new mobility models.
EV support policies CO 2 -based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates Feebates VAT exemptions Purchase incentives Circulation incentives Differentiated plates Access to bus lanes Free/dedicated parking Circulation/congestion charge exemption Fuel economy standards, ZEV mandates Fuel taxes Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives Standards, regulations and mandates Charging infrastructure roll-out Large scope for city-level action Direct public investment Public-private partnerships Charger standards harmonization Fast and slow charging network planning Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects
gco2/km EVs benefit the environment and are essential to CO 2 emissions reduction On-road WTW CO 2 emissions for various technologies by country/region, RTS and 2DS, 215 to 23 3 ICE gasoline 25 ICE gasoline hybrid 2 ICE diesel 15 1 5 215 23 RTS 23 2DS FRANCE UNITED STATES CHINA JAPAN EUROPE PHEV - 2DS improvement PHEV - RTS improvement BEV - 2DS improvement BEV - RTS improvement If coupled to low-carbon power, the high energy efficiency of EVs offers prospects for substantial CO 2 emissions reductions. This complements their air quality, energy security and noise reduction benefits.
GW GW 2 Grid integration and synergies with variable renewables 1 Local demand profile and EV charging in the EU on a typical day, B2DS, 23 24 48 Hours Solar PV and controlled EV charging 5 4 3 2 EV charging coincident with renewables EV charging reducing generation ramping 1 24 48 Hours Demand load PV generation Electric car charging Net load with PV and electric car charging Flexible charging will ensure minimal investment needs in grid reinforcements and optimized load synchronization with high shares of variable renewables.