Emission and Air Quality Trends Review

Emission and Air Quality Trends Review Georgia March 2012 1

Summary 2

Project Objective To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality over the past ten years in easy to understand visual and tabular formats 3

Emission Trends Summary All pollutants with the exception of VOC and NH3 have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across Georgia Increases due to agricultural and forestry categories NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions 4

Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) 5

Georgia Emission Change (NOx) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 10,031-11,830-27,062-68,208-72,306-62,406-61,491-66,552-73,710-119,371-116,924 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0-1,013-2,284-1,495-1,585-1,816-1,212-1,279-951 -1,453-1,259-809 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 1,352 3,711-42,589-43,334-44,079-45,890-46,227-46,564-46,902-47,239-47,576 Other Fuel Combustion 0 488 684 3,615 2,903 2,192 1,480 1,448 1,417 1,386 1,354 1,323 Industrial Processes 0-1,771-1,098-7,827-6,956-6,085-6,748-6,815-6,882-6,950-7,017-7,084 Highway Vehicles 0 11,262-2,937-6,024-24,762-43,499 50,808 30,882 10,957-8,969-28,894-48,820 Off-highway Vehicles 0-247 -293 6,521 6,940 7,360 2,313-565 -3,444-6,323-9,201-12,080 Miscellaneous 0-4,472-3,919-6,409-3,930-1,450-10,591 5,035 21,662 7,977 14,571 14,571 Total 0 15,630-17,967-81,270-138,930-159,684-72,246-79,011-90,358-134,943-197,057-217,399 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 6% -7% -16% -39% -42% -36% -36% -39% -43% -69% -68% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -29% -66% -43% -46% -52% -35% -37% -27% -42% -36% -23% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 1% 4% -45% -45% -46% -48% -49% -49% -49% -50% -50% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 4% 6% 31% 25% 19% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% Industrial Processes 0% -6% -4% -27% -24% -21% -23% -24% -24% -24% -24% -25% Highway Vehicles 0% 4% -1% -2% -8% -14% 16% 10% 3% -3% -9% -16% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 0% 0% 7% 8% 8% 3% -1% -4% -7% -10% -13% Miscellaneous 0% -42% -37% -60% -37% -14% -100% 47% 204% 75% 137% 137% Total 0% 2% -2% -11% -19% -22% -10% -11% -12% -19% -27% -30% 6

Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) 7

Georgia Emission Change (SO2) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 4,486-21,057 8,852 37,440 43,995 110,943 132,469 131,244-1,853-242,589-287,534 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0 1,821-2,605-7,068-7,218-8,248-7,835-8,683-8,819-9,010-8,993-9,046 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 2,272 3,901 40,968 43,789 46,610 48,163 47,131 46,100 45,068 44,037 43,005 Other Fuel Combustion 0 100 181 6,111 3,600 1,088-1,424-1,473-1,523-1,572-1,621-1,671 Industrial Processes 0 1,215 2,244-23,103-23,185-23,268-25,359-25,522-25,685-25,848-26,011-26,174 Highway Vehicles 0-403 -41-790 -2,639-4,488-4,864-5,742-6,620-7,498-8,376-9,254 Off-highway Vehicles 0 202 330 427 2,020 3,613 1,098-53 -1,205-2,356-3,507-4,658 Miscellaneous 0-1,371-1,219 2,986 2,760 2,534-2,877 4,713 12,578 5,996 9,522 9,522 Total 0 8,323-18,264 28,383 56,566 61,835 117,845 142,840 146,071 2,927-237,538-285,811 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 1% -4% 2% 7% 9% 22% 26% 26% 0% -48% -57% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 19% -27% -74% -76% -87% -82% -91% -93% -95% -95% -95% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 5% 8% 86% 92% 98% 101% 99% 97% 95% 92% 90% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 3% 5% 154% 91% 27% -36% -37% -38% -40% -41% -42% Industrial Processes 0% 3% 6% -65% -65% -65% -71% -71% -72% -72% -73% -73% Highway Vehicles 0% -3% 0% -7% -22% -37% -40% -48% -55% -62% -70% -77% Off-highway Vehicles 0% 2% 4% 5% 24% 43% 13% -1% -14% -28% -41% -55% Miscellaneous 0% -48% -42% 104% 96% 88% -100% 164% 437% 208% 331% 331% Total 0% 1% -3% 5% 9% 10% 19% 23% 23% 0% -38% -46% 8

Air Quality Trends Summary Average O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in Georgia O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in all current O 3 and PM 2.5 non-attainment areas in Georgia 9

Max O 3 DVs and Trend 10

Average O 3 DVs and Trend 11

O 3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 12

Max PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 13

Average PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 14

Max PM 2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend 15

Average PM 2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend 16

Annual PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 17

24-Hour PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 18

Background 19

Project Objective To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality in the U.S. over the past ten years in easy to understand visual and tabular formats Include additional qualitative assessment of meteorological influences on these trends as available for temperature and rainfall anomalies 20

Emission Trends 21

Emission Trends Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA emission inventories for years within the study period of interest (1999-2010) By pollutant and source category electric generation fuel combustion industrial fuel combustion other fuel combustion industrial processes on-road vehicles non-road engines and vehicles miscellaneous 22

Emissions Data Summary Data Obtained from EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites EPA s Trends reports and emission comparisons include interpolations of all categories between key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2012 projection) Pollutants: VOC, NOx, CO, SO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5 and NH 3 Project Improvement The Study Team augmented above data with year specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2010), MOVES onroad emissions (2005 through 2010), and wildfire emissions data (2005 through 2009) 23

Georgia Emission Trends (VOC) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 1,093 1,020 939 1,146 1,160 1,188 1,268 1,265 1,328 1,193 1,004 1,048 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 59 58 36 108 125 139 177 205 223 195 232 253 Industrial Fuel Combustion 10,210 10,156 10,598 3,912 3,892 3,872 3,828 3,827 3,826 3,825 3,824 3,823 Other Fuel Combustion 26,789 22,517 22,527 16,301 14,555 12,809 11,063 10,798 10,534 10,269 10,004 9,740 Industrial Processes 213,880 205,502 206,580 261,173 261,824 262,474 263,055 261,482 259,910 258,338 256,766 255,193 Highway Vehicles 207,562 207,136 202,096 185,958 174,613 163,269 148,167 140,349 132,532 124,714 116,897 109,079 Off-highway Vehicles 66,974 66,541 66,104 83,632 81,708 79,783 77,668 74,524 71,381 68,237 65,094 61,950 Miscellaneous 28,181 18,276 19,495 87,840 94,907 101,973 454 200,079 397,817 227,473 334,219 334,219 Total 554,748 531,206 528,374 640,070 632,783 625,507 505,679 692,530 877,550 694,244 788,039 775,305 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Other Fuel Combustion 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Industrial Processes 39% 39% 39% 41% 41% 42% 52% 38% 30% 37% 33% 33% Highway Vehicles 37% 39% 38% 29% 28% 26% 29% 20% 15% 18% 15% 14% Off-highway Vehicles 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 15% 11% 8% 10% 8% 8% Miscellaneous 5% 3% 4% 14% 15% 16% 0% 29% 45% 33% 42% 43% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 24

Georgia Emission Trends (VOC) 25

Georgia Emission Composition (VOC) 26

Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 172,708 182,740 160,878 145,646 104,500 100,403 110,302 111,218 106,156 98,999 53,337 55,784 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 3,462 2,448 1,178 1,967 1,877 1,645 2,249 2,182 2,510 2,008 2,203 2,653 Industrial Fuel Combustion 95,269 96,621 98,980 52,680 51,935 51,190 49,379 49,042 48,704 48,367 48,030 47,693 Other Fuel Combustion 11,623 12,110 12,307 15,238 14,526 13,814 13,103 13,071 13,040 13,009 12,977 12,946 Industrial Processes 28,719 26,949 27,621 20,893 21,763 22,634 21,971 21,904 21,837 21,770 21,702 21,635 Highway Vehicles 313,568 324,829 310,630 307,544 288,806 270,069 364,376 344,450 324,524 304,599 284,673 264,748 Off-highway Vehicles 91,445 91,198 91,151 97,965 98,385 98,805 93,758 90,879 88,001 85,122 82,243 79,365 Miscellaneous 10,608 6,136 6,689 4,199 6,679 9,158 18 15,644 32,270 18,585 25,179 25,179 Total 727,402 743,031 709,435 646,132 588,471 567,718 655,155 648,390 637,043 592,459 530,345 510,002 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 24% 25% 23% 23% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 10% 11% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Industrial Fuel Combustion 13% 13% 14% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% Other Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% Industrial Processes 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% Highway Vehicles 43% 44% 44% 48% 49% 48% 56% 53% 51% 51% 54% 52% Off-highway Vehicles 13% 12% 13% 15% 17% 17% 14% 14% 14% 14% 16% 16% Miscellaneous 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 5% 3% 5% 5% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 27

Georgia Emission Trends (NOx) 28

Georgia Emission Composition (NOx) 29

Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 504,113 508,600 483,057 512,965 541,553 548,108 615,056 636,583 635,358 502,261 261,525 216,579 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 9,507 11,328 6,902 2,439 2,288 1,258 1,672 824 688 496 514 461 Industrial Fuel Combustion 47,649 49,921 51,550 88,617 91,438 94,259 95,811 94,780 93,749 92,717 91,686 90,654 Other Fuel Combustion 3,975 4,075 4,157 10,087 7,575 5,063 2,552 2,502 2,453 2,403 2,354 2,304 Industrial Processes 35,748 36,963 37,992 12,645 12,562 12,480 10,389 10,226 10,063 9,900 9,737 9,573 Highway Vehicles 12,027 11,624 11,986 11,237 9,388 7,539 7,163 6,285 5,407 4,529 3,651 2,773 Off-highway Vehicles 8,494 8,696 8,824 8,921 10,514 12,107 9,592 8,441 7,289 6,138 4,987 3,836 Miscellaneous 2,877 1,506 1,658 5,863 5,637 5,411 0 7,590 15,455 8,872 12,399 12,399 Total 624,390 632,713 606,125 652,772 680,955 686,225 742,235 767,230 770,461 627,316 386,851 338,579 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 81% 80% 80% 79% 80% 80% 83% 83% 82% 80% 68% 64% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 8% 8% 9% 14% 13% 14% 13% 12% 12% 15% 24% 27% Other Fuel Combustion 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% Industrial Processes 6% 6% 6% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 3% Highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Off-highway Vehicles 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Miscellaneous 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 3% 4% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 30

Georgia Emission Trends (SO 2 ) 31

Georgia Emission Composition (SO 2 ) 32

Georgia Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 7,249 8,421 7,906 25,298 25,354 25,448 27,941 28,226 29,087 26,140 20,625 22,554 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 17,745 17,009 16,422 163 246 286 278 266 254 239 228 216 Industrial Fuel Combustion 21,656 21,842 22,449 7,753 7,944 8,135 8,268 8,288 8,308 8,329 8,349 8,369 Other Fuel Combustion 10,912 11,611 11,643 6,851 6,883 6,916 6,948 6,802 6,655 6,509 6,362 6,216 Industrial Processes 74,014 65,709 69,421 38,881 37,505 36,130 34,668 34,567 34,466 34,365 34,264 34,163 Highway Vehicles 7,123 6,926 6,550 6,366 5,997 5,627 12,058 11,267 10,475 9,684 8,893 8,101 Off-highway Vehicles 6,365 6,279 6,190 7,003 7,093 7,183 6,860 6,656 6,451 6,246 6,041 5,836 Miscellaneous 157,799 142,206 129,803 95,273 100,118 104,963 63,924 139,577 215,279 150,475 189,753 189,745 Total 302,863 280,003 270,384 187,587 191,141 194,687 160,945 235,648 310,976 241,986 274,516 275,201 Annual Emissions (Percent of Total) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 2% 3% 3% 13% 13% 13% 17% 12% 9% 11% 8% 8% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 6% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Industrial Fuel Combustion 7% 8% 8% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% Other Fuel Combustion 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% Industrial Processes 24% 23% 26% 21% 20% 19% 22% 15% 11% 14% 12% 12% Highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 7% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% Off-highway Vehicles 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% Miscellaneous 52% 51% 48% 51% 52% 54% 40% 59% 69% 62% 69% 69% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 33

Georgia Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) 34

Southeastern States Emissions Summary Annual Emissions (Tons) -- 2010 State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama 461,041 355,601 1,925,434 326,652 466,341 160,931 82,326 Florida 1,282,590 730,414 5,525,264 294,300 585,085 275,222 83,950 Georgia 775,305 510,002 3,539,660 338,579 822,183 275,201 124,271 Kentucky 282,730 336,745 1,160,828 305,066 292,611 95,472 61,100 Mississippi 373,623 263,319 1,243,900 95,473 426,657 119,233 76,560 North Carolina 480,018 388,082 2,359,723 211,531 353,051 124,037 178,400 South Carolina 349,417 234,926 1,584,306 128,184 333,281 100,109 40,906 Tennessee 367,226 369,361 1,640,624 221,101 296,994 97,194 43,448 Virginia 367,899 390,648 1,954,894 194,172 288,687 92,714 56,086 West Virginia 127,971 175,302 560,388 163,115 153,064 60,502 13,965 Total 4,867,820 3,754,399 21,495,022 2,278,171 4,017,954 1,400,616 761,011 35

Emission Changes The following slides represent the percentage-based emissions change from 1999 to 2010 for each pollutant as well as a comparison map of 2010 annual emissions Negative values indicate decrease in emissions, positive values indicate an increase 36

Georgia Emission Change (VOC) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0-73 -154 54 67 96 175 172 236 100-89 -44 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0-1 -23 48 66 80 117 146 163 135 172 193 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0-54 388-6,298-6,319-6,339-6,383-6,384-6,385-6,386-6,387-6,388 Other Fuel Combustion 0-4,272-4,262-10,488-12,234-13,980-15,726-15,990-16,255-16,520-16,784-17,049 Industrial Processes 0-8,378-7,300 47,293 47,944 48,594 49,175 47,602 46,030 44,458 42,886 41,313 Highway Vehicles 0-426 -5,466-21,604-32,949-44,293-59,395-67,213-75,030-82,848-90,665-98,483 Off-highway Vehicles 0-433 -870 16,659 14,734 12,809 10,694 7,550 4,407 1,263-1,880-5,024 Miscellaneous 0-9,905-8,685 59,659 66,726 73,793-27,726 171,898 369,636 199,293 306,038 306,038 Total 0-23,542-26,373 85,323 78,035 70,760-49,069 137,783 322,802 139,497 233,291 220,557 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -7% -14% 5% 6% 9% 16% 16% 22% 9% -8% -4% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -2% -39% 82% 111% 134% 198% 246% 275% 228% 290% 325% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% -1% 4% -62% -62% -62% -63% -63% -63% -63% -63% -63% Other Fuel Combustion 0% -16% -16% -39% -46% -52% -59% -60% -61% -62% -63% -64% Industrial Processes 0% -4% -3% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20% 19% Highway Vehicles 0% 0% -3% -10% -16% -21% -29% -32% -36% -40% -44% -47% Off-highway Vehicles 0% -1% -1% 25% 22% 19% 16% 11% 7% 2% -3% -8% Miscellaneous 0% -35% -31% 212% 237% 262% -98% 610% 1312% 707% 1086% 1086% Total 0% -4% -5% 15% 14% 13% -9% 25% 58% 25% 42% 40% 37

2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (VOC) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1,600 700 to 1,100 400 to 700 0 to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions 1999 to 2010 VOC Tons Per Year > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to 2010 2010 38

2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (NOx) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1,600 700 to 1,100 400 to 700 0 to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions 1999 to 2010 NOx Tons Per Year 27,000 to 223,000 12,000 to 27,000 6,000 to 12,000 2,000 to 6,000 0 to 2,000 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions NH3 Tons Per Year 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1,600 700 to 1,100 400 to 700 0 to 400 Annual 2010 Emissions PM-10 Tons Per Year 9,000 to 145,000 6,000 to 9,000 5,000 to 6,000 3,000 to 5,000 0 to 3,000 Annual 2010 Emissions PM-2.5 Tons Per Year Emission Change (%) 1999 to 2010 6,900 to 55,500 3,600 to 6,900 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 Emission Density (Tons) Annual 2010 Emissions 2010 SO2 Tons Per Year 44,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 40

2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (SO2) 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1,600 700 to 1,100 400 to 700 0 to 400 Annual Emissions Change Annual 2010 Emissions SO2 Tons Per Year 1999 to 2010 44,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 0 to 1,000 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions VOC Tons Per Year 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to 2010 2010 42

Georgia Emission Change (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0 1,172 657 18,049 18,105 18,199 20,692 20,976 21,838 18,890 13,376 15,305 Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0-736 -1,323-17,582-17,499-17,460-17,468-17,479-17,491-17,507-17,517-17,529 Industrial Fuel Combustion 0 186 793-13,903-13,712-13,520-13,388-13,368-13,347-13,327-13,307-13,287 Other Fuel Combustion 0 699 731-4,062-4,029-3,997-3,964-4,111-4,257-4,404-4,550-4,696 Industrial Processes 0-8,305-4,593-35,133-36,509-37,885-39,347-39,447-39,548-39,649-39,750-39,851 Highway Vehicles 0-197 -573-756 -1,126-1,496 4,936 4,144 3,353 2,562 1,770 979 Off-highway Vehicles 0-85 -175 638 728 818 496 291 86-119 -324-528 Miscellaneous 0-15,593-27,996-62,526-57,681-52,836-93,875-18,222 57,480-7,324 31,954 31,946 Total 0-22,860-32,479-115,276-111,722-108,176-141,918-67,215 8,113-60,877-28,347-27,662 Annual Emissions Change (from 1999) Source Category 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion 0% 16% 9% 249% 250% 251% 285% 289% 301% 261% 185% 211% Electric Utility Non-Coal Fuel Combustion 0% -4% -7% -99% -99% -98% -98% -98% -99% -99% -99% -99% Industrial Fuel Combustion 0% 1% 4% -64% -63% -62% -62% -62% -62% -62% -61% -61% Other Fuel Combustion 0% 6% 7% -37% -37% -37% -36% -38% -39% -40% -42% -43% Industrial Processes 0% -11% -6% -47% -49% -51% -53% -53% -53% -54% -54% -54% Highway Vehicles 0% -3% -8% -11% -16% -21% 69% 58% 47% 36% 25% 14% Off-highway Vehicles 0% -1% -3% 10% 11% 13% 8% 5% 1% -2% -5% -8% Miscellaneous 0% -10% -18% -40% -37% -33% -59% -12% 36% -5% 20% 20% Total 0% -8% -11% -38% -37% -36% -47% -22% 3% -20% -9% -9% 43

2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 US_CNTY by Emiss_2010_7 Annual Emission Summary (PM 1,600 to 24,800 1,100 to 1,600 700 to 1,100 400 to 700 0 to 400 2.5) Annual 2010 Emissions Annual Emissions Change PM-2.5 Tons Per Year 1999 to 2010 6,900 to 55,500 3,600 to 6,900 2,100 to 3,600 1,200 to 2,100 0 to 1,200 > 50% 10% to 50% -10% to 10% -50% to -10% < -50% Annual 2010 Emissions SO2 Tons Per Year 44,000 to 136,000 16,000 to 44,000 5,000 to 16,000 1,000 to 5,000 0 to 1,000 Annual 2010 Emissions VOC Tons Per Year 18,000 to 190,000 3,000 to 18,000 2,000 to 3,000 1,000 to 2,000 0 to 1,000 Emission Change (%) Emission Density (Tons) 1999 to 2010 2010 44

Southeastern States Emissions Change Summary Annual Emissions Change (Tons) -- 1999 to 2010 State VOC NOX CO SO2 PM-10 PM-2.5 NH3 Alabama -103,058-192,246-1,086,107-384,055-105,615-65,953-4,533 Florida 290,013-304,976-1,898,563-602,901-216,780-97,918-10,872 Georgia 220,557-217,399-640,689-285,811-51,107-27,662 23,176 Kentucky -51,370-353,317-695,501-470,135-43,955-35,271-34,520 Mississippi 62,461-128,839-129,156-132,917 9,036-8,641-192 North Carolina -170,476-272,347-1,480,053-370,497-44,015-39,519-14,403 South Carolina -18,367-122,278-523,137-165,929 22,642-991 5,836 Tennessee -130,298-229,801-810,170-378,523-62,393-46,641-42,408 Virginia -48,108-82,841-849,456-141,995-27,948-21,027-19,019 West Virginia -31,515-275,131-280,893-612,139-34,261-28,849-5,141 Total 19,841-2,179,174-8,393,725-3,544,902-554,396-372,472-102,076 45

Air Quality Trends Ozone & PM 2.5 47

AQ Trends Scope Compute, summarize and display ozone and PM 2.5 design value trends in the Southeastern states for the period 1999 2010 Create a spreadsheet database of O 3 and PM 2.5 values at each monitoring site for additional analyses 48

Design Values Ozone Annual 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 0.075 ppm PM 2.5 Annual Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 15 ug/m 3 PM 2.5 24-Hour Annual 98 th percentile of daily averages averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 35 ug/m 3 49

State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV Max DV: Maximum DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Average DV: Average of DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Compute linear trend via least-squares regression 50

Data Handling Procedures O 3 design value (DV) for each overlapping threeyear period starting with 1999-2001 and ending with 2008-2010 DV calculated using annual 4 th highest daily max 8-hr averages and percent of valid observations, based on EPA data handling conventions Data associated with exceptional events that have received EPA concurrence are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at least 8 out of 10 three-year periods between 1999 and 2010 51

Data Handling Procedures Annual PM 2.5 DV and 24-hr PM 2.5 DV for each overlapping three-year period starting with 1999-2001 and ending with 2008-2010 DV calculations based on EPA data handling conventions Data extracted from monitors that have a nonregulatory monitoring type are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in at least 8 out of at 10 three-year periods between 1999 and 2010 52

Ozone Concentration [ppm] Trend Calculation 0.11 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 Trend in units of ppb/year New York-N. New Jersey-Long Island,NY-NJ-CT Max O3 Design Values 0.04 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Scale in units of ppm Least squares trend: Slope = -2.3 ppb/yr Trends based on linear least squares fit to rolling three year design values (DVs) Negative trend indicates improving air quality DVs based on each 3-year period: 1999-2001, 2000-2002, 2008-2010 Notes On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in year shown (i.e., 2007-2009 DV plotted as 2009 value) Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000 ppb = 1 ppm); DVs are plotted as ppm 53

Max O 3 DVs and Trend 54

Average O 3 DVs and Trend 55

Ozone Trends by Site in Georgia Monitoring Sites County Trend [ppm/yr] 1302100124420101 Bibb, GA -0.0024 1305100214420101 Chatham, GA -0.0009 1306700034420101 Cobb, GA -0.0020 1307700024420101 Coweta, GA -0.0023 1308500014420102 Dawson, GA -0.0011 1308900024420101 De Kalb, GA -0.0013 1309700044420101 Douglas, GA -0.0020 1311300014420101 Fayette, GA -0.0010 1312100554420101 Fulton, GA -0.0020 1312700064420101 Glynn, GA -0.0013 Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 56

Ozone Trends by Site in Georgia Monitoring Sites County Trend [ppm/yr] 1313500024420101 Gwinnett, GA -0.0013 1315100024420101 Henry, GA -0.0017 1321300034420101 Murray, GA -0.0016 1321500084420101 Muscogee, GA -0.0008 1321510034420101 Muscogee, GA -0.0021 1322300034420101 Paulding, GA -0.0022 1324500914420101 Richmond, GA -0.0016 1324700014420101 Rockdale, GA -0.0015 1326110014420102 Sumter, GA -0.0016 Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 57

O 3 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 58

Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August Temperature 2003-2010 Blue colors represent the coldest years, red hottest 2006, 2007 and 2010 most ozone conducive in Southeast from temperature standpoint 59

Qualitative Meteorological Trends June-August Precipitation 2003-2010 Red colors represent the driest years, dark green wettest 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010 most ozone conducive in Southeast from precipitation standpoint 60

Max PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 61

Average PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend 62

Max PM 2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend 63

Average PM 2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend 64

PM 2.5 Trends by Site in Georgia Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring Site County Annual DV 24-Hr DV 130210007 Bibb -0.36 N/A 130210012 Bibb -0.38-0.81 130510017 Chatham -0.48-1.16 130630091 Clayton -0.53-2.12 130670003 Cobb -0.52-1.48 130890002 DeKalb -0.53-1.52 130892001 DeKalb -0.63-1.82 130950007 Dougherty -0.32-0.12 131150003 Floyd -0.47 N/A 131350002 Gwinnett -0.50-1.93 Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 65

PM 2.5 Trends by Site in Georgia Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring Site County Annual DV 24-Hr DV 131390003 Hall -0.60 N/A 131850003 Lowndes -0.27 N/A 132150001 Muscogee -0.27-0.68 132150011 Muscogee -0.46-1.81 132230003 Paulding -0.46-2.71 132450005 Richmond -0.44 N/A 132450091 Richmond -0.32-1.02 133030001 Washington -0.39-2.57 133190001 Wilkinson -0.39-1.10 131530001 Houston N/A -1.15 Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed 66

Annual PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 67

24-Hour PM 2.5 Trend Slopes at Monitoring Sites 68

Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual Temperature 2003-2010 Blue colors represent the coldest years, red hottest 2006 and 2007 most PM 2.5 conducive in Southeast from temperature standpoint 69

Qualitative Meteorological Trends Annual Precipitation 2003-2010 Red colors represent the driest years, dark green wettest 2006, 2007 and 2010 most PM 2.5 conducive in Southeast from precipitation standpoint 70