The Québec Graduated Licensing System for Novice Drivers: A Two-Year Evaluation of the 1997 Reform Bouchard, J.; Dussault, C.; Simard, R.; Gendreau, M.; Lemire, A.M. Highway Safety Research and Strategy, Société de l assurance automobile du Québec, Québec, Canada 333, boul. Jean-Lesage, Québec (Québec) Canada G1K 8J6 Keywords:Young drivers, new drivers, alcohol, crashes, graduated licensing. Abstract Since July 1997, the revised Québec graduated licensing system () encompasses a learning period (accompanying rider, zero BAC and ceiling of 4 demerit points) of 12 months for all new drivers, with the possibility of reducing it to 8 months by taking a driving course, and a probationary period (zero BAC and ceiling of 4 demerit points) of two years applying only to drivers under 25 years of age. Prior to the 1997 reform, the Québec had only minor restrictions (ceiling of 10 demerit points instead of 15 for a regular licence). This paper presents an evaluation of the 1997 reform using a before/after design (2 years/2 years) with a comparison group. The record of the group (learner and probationary) is compared to a non- group composed of all young drivers (18-24 year-olds) holding a regular licence. Using the same design, preliminary results have shown that the net one-year effect of the revised was to reduce fatalities by 32.8% and injuries by 15.1%. The twoyear evaluation found a 4.9% reduction in fatalities and a 14.4% reduction in injuries. Possible reasons for this disparity between results are discussed and for the first time, the study evaluated the impact of Zero Alcohol on collision involvement. Introduction As in many jurisdictions in North America and elsewhere, Québec legislators have adopted a graduated licensing system (). Known as Bill 12, the legal provisions of were passed into law by the National Assembly on December 20, 1996. Bill 12 also included other measures concerning DWI and driving while suspended. On June 30, 1997, the went into effect and five months later, on December 1, 1997, provisions concerning DWI and DWS became effective. The graduated system applies to all new Québec drivers and it aims to provide them with better preparation for driving in an environment with less risk of accident before granting them full driving privileges (Dussault and Letendre 1999). In 1996, more than 85% of new drivers were under the age of twenty-five. People under age 25 accounted for 12% of all licence holders, but 24% of drivers involved in bodily injury accidents. The main factors explaining the overrepresentation of young drivers in accidents is a high degree of risk-taking and a lack of driving experience, while driving skills seem to be much less of a cause. Data show that Québec drivers under age 25 have the highest rate of offences leading to the entry of demerit points on their record per 100 licence holders.
The new operates at two levels: learner s licence and probationary licence. The learner s licence is issued for at least twelve months when the aspiring driver, who must be 16 years of age or older, has passed the driving knowledge test. The twelve-month period may be reduced to eight months if the learner takes a practical course given by a recognized driving school. The lengthier initial learning period is intended to allow the learner to acquire better driving experience. The learner is allowed to drive accompanied by someone who has held a valid driver s licence for at least 24 months. Lengthening the initial learning period and withdrawal of the obligation to take a driving school s practical course are two major changes introduced by the. The probationary licence, while continuing to allow its holder to acquire safe driving experience, aims above all to reinforce the process of developing responsible road use behaviour. This licence differs from the learner s in that it confers on the holder the right to drive without having an accompanying rider. Another distinguishing feature of the probationary licence is that it is issued for two years, or until the holder reaches age 25, whichever comes first. Thus only those new drivers who are under 25 become subject to a probationary licence, while formerly, all learners were issued a probationary licence for two years once they had passed their road test, regardless of age. Both in the case of learner s licence and probationary licence holders, the demerit point ceiling that triggers licence suspension was lowered considerably and the notion of zero tolerance with regard to alcohol use and driving was brought into effect. The number of demerit points went down from ten to four, but the length of the suspension remains the same as prior to the reform. Both groups of licence holders are prohibited from driving with any amount of blood alcohol and the penalties are the same for both groups: a licence suspension for three months and a fine of $300 to $600. Graduated licensing systems implemented in Canada and elsewhere have been evaluated (Langley et al., 1996; Boase and Tasca, 1998; Ulmer et al., 1999; Mayhew et al., 1999). Encouraging results have been found indicating that the programs, even with different features, are working well. Methods The study design involved a before-and-after comparison with a control group. Data were obtained from the Société de l assurance automobile du Québec which keeps accident statistics for all Québec drivers. For learner s and drivers during their probationary period, safety record indicators were established for the first two years of the reform that is from July 1, 1997 through June 30, 1999. The indicators (number of victims or of drivers involved in accidents according to levels of injury severity) were compared with those obtained for the period from January 1, 1995 through December 31, 1996. The six-month period immediately before the reform (January through June 1997) was left out of consideration to avoid the effect of anticipation as evidenced by the considerably more numerous learner s licence holders than normal, reflecting the desire to avoid being subject to the legal framework of the reform. Since the comparison covers different years, factors other than the reform could have influenced safety record changes. For that reason, it was decided to consider the corresponding variation in the accident toll for a control group, very similar to the groups compared, comprised of drivers under age 25 who are regular licence holders. A preliminary evaluation of was conducted to examine changes in fatalities and injuries among drivers one year after the new measures took effect (Simard et al., 1999). The study found that the number of victims killed dropped by 32.8% but given the small number of victims the significance is limited. The study also found a drop of 15.1% in the number of victims injured.
The evaluation after two years updated those results and for the first time the study evaluated the impact of the Zero Alcohol tolerance on collision involvement. Since the BAC level of young drivers was not available, the indicator that was used is the variation in the number of nighttime single-vehicle crashes. The nighttime definition that was retained is "collisions involved between 9pm and 6am". Though this indicator is far from perfect, single crashes occurring during these hours are more likely to be related to alcohol use. This assessment took into account only car drivers; impact of on motorcyclists has been evaluated separately. Also, the results still remain preliminary and must be interpreted in light of the relatively short period and the inherent limits of comparison with the control group chosen. Results the on the number of licences issued and licence holders The introduction of has temporarily affected the licensing rate. As shown in Figure 1, there was a strong increase in the number of learner s licences issued during the last three months before the reform. More than 20,000 aspiring drivers applied for a licence to avoid being subject to the new requirements. A minimum period of three months applied for those holders, so by December 1997 their number had declined considerably. Figure 1: Number of learner s licences issued per month, January 1995 to June 1999 30000 25000 Number 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 July July Jan July July 95 96 97 98 99 From January to December 1998, the number of learner s licence holders rose sharply, from 84,064 to 116,377, because of the arrival of new applicants and the lengthening of the time learners are required to hold their licence before they can be issued a probationary licence. During the first half of 1999, the number of learner s licence holders stabilized around 118,000. By comparison, before the reform, that number oscillated around 75,000 each month.
There also were changes in the number of probationary licence holders. It first increased slightly at the start of 1996 to level off at around 160,000 through 1997. Then, with fewer new probationary licence holders because of the longer learning period and the fact that some of them graduated to a regular licence, their number declined through 1998 and early 1999. Thus, the number of probationary licence holders moved from 158,722 in January 1998 to 118,680 in June 1999, but the decline seems henceforth completed. A few words about the regular driver s licence holders aged 18 through 24 since this population has been used as control group. Their number hovered around 340,000 throughout 1996 and early 1997. Then, it increased by about 3% to some 353,000 holders in June 1998. Since the beginning of 1999, their number stabilized at around 360,000. To summarize, graduated access to the driving privilege resulted in about 20,000 more learners or probationary licence holders during the summer of 1997 compared to a base level of about 235,000. Since June 1998, the overall population of new drivers fluctuated between 235,000 and 240,000, so we can now talk of stabilization. the on the accident toll of young drivers Table 1 shows that from January 1995 to December 1996, learner s and probationary licence holders were involved in accidents causing death to 187 people. Following the reform, from, that number was down to 147, a decrease of 21.4%. Over the same periods, regular licence holders were involved in accidents causing death to 294 and 243 people respectively, a decrease of 17.3%. Consequently, the net impact of on the number of fatalities involving drivers subject to the reform was a reduction of 4.9%. Table 1: on the number of fatalities involving young drivers Drivers' Group 1995 to Dec. 1996 NUMBER OF FATALITIES group Learner 17 12 29.4% Probationary 170 135 20.6% Total (All ) 187 147 21.4% 4.9% Regular Licence (18-24 yrs) 294 243 17.3% N/A Regarding the number of injuries, Table 2 shows that during the pre-reform period, the group was involved in accidents causing injuries to 13,937 people. A decrease of 8.6% was observed during the post-reform period, group being involved in accidents causing injuries to 12,741 people. The pre-post comparison for the control group indicated that these drivers were involved in accidents causing respectively 19,261 and 20,563 injuries, an increase of 6.8%. The net impact of on the number of injuries involving young drivers subject to the reform was a reduction of 14.4%.
Table 2: on the number of victims injured in accidents involving young drivers Drivers' Group 1995 to Dec. 1996 NUMBER OF INJURED group Learner 1 086 1 029 5.2% Probationary 12 851 11 712 8.9% Total (All ) 13 937 12 741 8.6% 14.4% Regular Licence (18-24 yrs) 19 261 20 563 µ 6.8% N/A Since the population of new drivers has known some fluctuations with the introduction of, as well as in the control group, the rate of victims per 100,000 licence holders has been examined. The learner s and probationary licence holders population used in this study consists of 228,172 drivers before the reform (monthly average) and 240,990 after the reform, while the population of regular licence holders was established respectively at 344,459 and 354,122 drivers. Table 3 shows that, after the reform, the rate of victims killed in the group was 61 per 100,000 licence holders, 25.6% lower than the rate of 82 per 100,000 observed before the reform. By comparison, the rate of victims killed in the control group decreased by 19.6% for a net reduction of 7.4%. Regarding injuries, the rate of victims dropped by 13.4% in the group and rose by 3.8% in the control group, a net reduction of 16.7%. Consequently, a decrease of 16.5% in the rate of victims killed or injured in the group can be associated with the new measures. Table 3: on the rate of victims per 100,000 licence holders Victims according to severity 1995 to Dec. 1996 RATE OF VICTIMS group Killed 82 61 25.6% 7.4% Injured 6 108 5 287 13.4% 16.7% All 6 190 5 348 13.6% 16.5% Killed 85 69 19.6% N/A Injured 5 592 5 807 µ 3.8% N/A All 5 677 5 876 µ 3.5% N/A the on the number of victims in nighttime single vehicle crashes (9pm to 6am) During the post-reform period, there has been a reduction in the number of victims killed or injured in nighttime single vehicles crashes involving young drivers. The reduction has been observed for the group as well as the control group, as shown in Table 4. The number of victims killed has decreased by 40.0% while the number of those injured decreased by 11.7% among the target group. This was due mainly to the decrease in the number of crashes involving probationary licence holders. Since fatalities and injuries involving the control
group also has shown a decrease of 5.3% and of 3.8%, an overall reduction of 8.9% in the number of victims in nighttime single vehicle crashes can be linked to. Table 4: on the number of victims killed or injured in nighttime single vehicle crashes involving young drivers, between 9pm and 6am Victims according to severity 1995 to Dec. 1996 NUMBER OF VICTIMS group Killed 40 24 40.0% 36.7% Injured 1 620 1 430 11.7% 8.3% All 1 660 1 454 12.4% 8.9% Killed 57 54 5.3% N/A Injured 1 953 1 879 3.8% N/A All 2 010 1 933 3.8% N/A Discussion The introduction of has temporally affected the licensing process since thousands of young people have applied to obtain their learner s licence before the coming into effect of the reform. In the months following this important date, fewer learner s licences were issued simply because there were fewer prospective holders on the market. The process returned rapidly to normal which means that the number of learner s licences issued remains at their former level. It seems that does not discourage young Quebecers from becoming drivers even in a much less permissive system. In fact, a survey conducted in June 1998 indicated that young people and parents both agreed with the new measures (Som, 1998). One of the most convincing results concerned the zero alcohol provision, which was strongly supported by 97% of parents and 90% of teenagers. Two years after the implementation of the new requirements, the before-and-after study found that the net impact of the was to reduce fatalities by 4.9% and injuries by 14.4%. These results seem less encouraging than those obtained in the previous study tracking the one-year effect and showing an impact of 32.8% in reducing fatalities and of 15.1% in reducing the number of injured victims. Some factors can explain the disparity between these results, particularly in the number of fatalities. Firstly, the 1995 comparison-year, which was not included in the former study, has worked in favour of the control group simply because young drivers holding a regular licence had a poor road safety record in 1995. Secondly, the control group also presented a better record than expected during the post-reform period, with a drop of 17.3% in the number of fatalities. A tentative explanation would be that the control group has been affected positively by the reform, knowing that all young drivers have been literally bombarded with information concerning the new restrictions and the penalties. Another explanation would be the impact of the taking effect of other provisions of Bill 12 on December 1, 1997. Severe measures like administrative licence suspension and vehicle impoundment were implemented and largely promoted. Even if these measures also applied to the group, they are more likely to affect drivers with regular licences, outside the learning process.
One question remains. Does Zero Alcohol provided the expected results? To tentatively answer this question, the indicator that has been used is the number of nighttime single vehicle crashes. Data show that the number of victims in these crashes involving young drivers subject to has decreased substantially after implementation of the program. Fatalities dropped by 40% and injuries by 11.7% but considering the performance of the control group, a reduction of 36. 7% and of 8.3% can be associated with. Since this type of crash is often related to alcohol use, the results although preliminary and imperfect are encouraging. In the future, it will have to be corroborated by more precise measuring of the BAC level among drivers killed and the BAC level among the driving population. In conclusion, the results obtained by this preliminary evaluation of Québec's graduated licensing system demonstrate that the reform has been effective in reducing the number of fatalities and injured victims in accidents involving the target group. Nevertheless, the good road safety record of the control group tempered the overall effects of the program. Final evaluation expected after full implementation (three-year effect) should allow establishing the real contribution of to road safety improvement. To that extent, it will be interesting to verify if produces long and lasting effects after young drivers have completed the full cycle. References Boase, P., Tasca, L., Graduated Licensing System Evaluation, Interim Report '98, Toronto, Ontario, Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, July 31, 1998, 28 pp. Dussault, C., Letendre, P., Graduated Licensing in Québec : the search for balance between mobility and safety, pp. 195-200, in Automobile Insurance: Road Safety, New Drivers, Risks, Insurance Fraud and Regulation, Dionne/Laberge-Nadeau Ed., Center for Research on Transportation, Université de Montréal, KAP, Boston/Dordrecht/London, 1999, 351 pp. Langley, J.D., Wagenaar, A.C., Begg, D.J., An evaluation of the New Zealand graduated driver licensing system, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 139-146, 1996. Mayhew, D.R., Simpson, H.M., Des Groseillers, M., the graduated driver licensing program in Nova Scotia, Traffic Injury Research Foundation, Ontario, Canada, September 1999, 33 pp. Simard, R., Bouchard, J., Gendreau, M., Lemire, A.-M., Nouveau programme d accès graduel à la conduite en vigueur depuis le 30 juin 1997 Mise à jour de l évaluation préliminaire jusqu au 30 juin 1998, SAAQ, Québec, Canada, January 1999, 36 pp. SOM Inc. Sondage sur la connsaissance de la nouvelle réglementation introduite par la loi 12 et l adhésion à ses principes, présenté à la Société de l assurance automobile du Québec, September 1998, 47 pp. Ulmer, R.G., Preusser, D.F., Williams, A.F., Ferguson, S.A., Farmer, C.M., Effect of Florida s Graduated Licensing Program on the Crashes of Teenage Drivers, Arlington, VA, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, January 1999, 10 pp.