21. April 2016 Innovative Flugantriebe - Dr. Jörg Sieber 1 MTU Aero Engines AG. The information contained herein is proprietary to the MTU Aero Engines group companies. Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs Wie ist der Stand der Wissenschaft und welche Ansätze gibt es, die Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs zu verringern? Experte: Prof. Dr. Volker Grewe, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. BDL Forum»Klimaschutz im Luftverkehr«Berlin, 21. April 2016 17
Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs: Wie ist der Stand der Wissenschaft und welche Ansätze gibt es, die Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs zu verringern? Robert Sausen, Volker Grewe DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen BDL-Forum: Klimaschutz im Luftverkehr Berlin, 21. April 2016
CO 2 equivalent emissions of EU-15 Change since 1990 3Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 17.04.2016 data: http://unfccc.int/
Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Emissions of CO 2 equivalents comprises CO 2, CH 4, NO 2, SF 6, HFCs, CFCs (without gases from the Montreal Protocol) country / sector emissions 2012 [Tg CO 2 ] tendency France 452 Germany 936 United Kingdom 579 internat. aviation 528 data: unfccc.int 4 17.04.2016
Atmospheric effects of emissions from aviation Emissions CO 2 H 2 O NO x VOC SO 2 Particles Changes in atmospheric composition CO 2 H 2 O CH 4 O 3 Particles Clouds Contrails 5Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Climate forcings 17.04.2016 Direct greenhouse gases Indirect greenhouse gases Direct aerosol effect Clouds
Radiative forcing from aviation 2005 T surf = λ RF Total anthropogenic forcing 1.6 W/m 2 Aviation fraction: CO 2 1.6 % Total 4.9 % 6Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 17.04.2016 Lee et al., 2009
Radiative forcing from aviation 2005, updated by recent DLR results T surf = λ RF 7Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 17.04.2016 recent DLR results Note: Different bases years and different emission data have been used
Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Weighing the non-co 2 effects Fixed multiplier for the CO 2 emissions? no incentive to work on the non-co 2 effects multiplier does not account for different aircraft or different flight trajectories Radiative forcing (RF)? RF is a measure of the emissions of the past Global warming potential (GWP)? used in the Kyoto Protocol to calculate CO 2 equivalents does not account for the heat capacity of the climate system problems the short-lived climate forcers AGWP Average temperature response (ATR)? accounts for both, short-lived and long-lived climate forcers provides consistent results for pulse emissions and longer emission scenarios ATR = H = 1 H H 0 T ( t) dt 0 RF spec ( t) dt 8 17.04.2016
Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 How can we mitigate the climate impact of aviation? Focus more on emissions: Reduction of the specific emissions Reduction of the absolute emissions Focus more on impact of emissions: Climate optimized aircraft Eco-efficient flight trajectories 9 17.04.2016
Change of aviation RF from global changes of cruise altitude Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Frömming et al., 2012 10 17.04.2016
Impact of unit "emissions" as function of latitude and altitude of emission RF from H 2 0 RF from contrails Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 RF from O 3 CH 4 lifetime change Fichter, 2009 11 17.04.2016
Climate optimized aircraft Cumulative potential for all routes operated by redesigned A/C Max Mach 0.775 / Max Altitude 10500m Redesigned A/C considerably improves climate impact mitigation potential and cost penalty Koch (2012)
Reducing the climate impact by changing cruise altitude and cruise speed for a fleet of A330-220 Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 based on Dahlmann et al., 2013 13 17.04.2016
Relation between direct operating costs and climate impact for two different weather situations Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Grewe et al., 2014 14 17.04.2016
Zusätzliche Diagramme
Globaler Treibstoffverbrauch des Luftverkehrs und Passagierkilometer Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Lee et al., 2009 16 17.04.2016
Radiative forcing from transport 2005 T surf = λ RF Total anthropogenic forcing 1.6 W/m 2 Indirect effects on cirrus clouds? Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 based on Righi et al., 2013 17 17.04.2016
What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Fuel emissions Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al., 2016 18 17.04.2016
What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Perform Monte-Carlo simulations: pdf of ATR Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al., 2016 19 17.04.2016
What can we do about the uncertainty? An example from aviation: 4 slightly different emissions scenarios Perform Monte-Carlo simulations: pdf of ATR Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Dahlmann et al., 2016 20 17.04.2016
Sausen & Grewe @ BDL 2016 Direct operation cost and change in average temperature response for A330-220 flights from Hong Kong to Taipei at different flight altitudes and cruise speeds Dahlmann, 2011 21 17.04.2016