Long term perspectives for electric transport Martine Uyterlinde - ECN Policy Studies DTU workshop, March 17, 2009 www.ecn.nl
Main messages Several innovations have a large long term potential for CO 2 emission reduction The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - depending on the method of electricity generation - air quality advantage is less significant The obvious competitor: a hydrogen-fuelled electric (fuel cell) vehicle 2 18-8-2009
Policy options - road transport 1. Reduce transport demand 2. Improve driving behaviour 3. Improve vehicle efficiency 4. Use low carbon fuels supported by EU policies European car standards Renewable target Fuel quality directive Dutch policy Road pricing Promotion Ecodriving Fiscal measures Biofuels target extra innovation? Alternative drive trains and fuels Innovative technology 3 18-8-2009
Market share The innovation cycle Pace in which phases are run through differs Commercialisation R&D Demonstration Early markets In-car EV PHEV ITS Coop ITS H2FC 2 nd gen Biofuels/SNG 1 st gen Biofuels HEV CNG Time 4 18-8-2009
Electric and hybrid vehicles History - In the 1990s prototypes were developed; bottlenecks battery technology and range - Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) in California postponed Recent developments: - Battery technology strongly improved - Hybrid technology developed - Many initiatives (new) market actors - Batteries may provide a buffer between mismatch in energy production and consumption However - Battery still heavy and expensive - Charging time and driving range remain challenges 5 18-8-2009
6 18-8-2009 New market actors
x mln 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Scenario: from hybrid to all-electric Improved battery technology (cost, weight, range) Charging infrastructure set up Hybrid strong breakthrough via CO 2 standards in EU Further price decreases Trust in battery technology Solutions driving range (fast charging, battery swaps) Further price decreases Tot 2020 2020 2030 2040 Elektrisch All-electricvervoer PHEV Hybride Benzine/Diesel/LPG Petrol/Diesel/LPG 7 18-8-2009
CO 2 reduction: substituting electricity for gasoline CO 2 in g/km - + Baseline: efficient gasoline (2020) I. Higher efficiency of electricity (same elec. fuel mix) II. Load shifting affects elec. fuel mix III. Improving integration of renewables Total CO 2 effect can be + or - 8 18-8-2009
CO 2 emissions well to wheel In 2040: 7,5 Mton reduction (2 11) Development electricity generating mix: - Basis: from 500 g/kwh in 2020 to 300 in 2040 (RES & CCS) - Coal: 600 g/kwh - RES-E: 100 [Mton] 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 g/kwh 0 5 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Other innovations EV and PHEV Historische Historical data data Referentiescenario Reference Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 33 with met 100 100 g/kwh g/kwh Scenario 33 with met 600 600 g/kwh 9 18-8-2009
Impact on air quality [kton NOx] 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Referentiescenario Reference Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 [kton PM10] 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reference Referentiescenario Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 3 10 18-8-2009
Comparing the obvious competitors Both hydrogen and electric vehicles offer: 1,7 - Diversification Energy density (kwh/kg) Scarce resource - Zero direct emissions System innovation required Production,storage and Distribution (strengthening Plug-in hybrid existing grid) - Efficiency gain compared distribution to ICE predecessor Many differences Refill in minutes; Consumer acceptance Hydrogen Platina for both Perception less safe? Electricity Diesel: 12 0,13 Lithium Long recharge time Drive range New actors Oil companies Electricity suppliers New business concepts Production method CCS essential Renewables Fossil fuels + CCS 11 18-8-2009
Conclusions In the long run, large CO 2 emission reductions in road transport are possible - innovations currently available have insufficient potential in the long run - options with a large potential are still in the demonstration phase The CO 2 emission reduction from electric vehicles can be substantial - depending on the method of electricity generation - the air quality advantage is less significant The obvious competitor: a hydrogen-fuelled electric (fuel cell) vehicle - both require a system innovation - too early to pick a winner 12 18-8-2009
Thank you! See also: report ECN E-08-076 13 18-8-2009