ALBERTA SOLAR MARKET OUTLOOK CanSIA Solar West 10 May 2017
Current Alberta Based Solar Programs 2 Residential and Commercial Solar Program Alberta Municipal Solar Program On-Farm Solar PV Program (Growing Forward 2) Renewable Electricity Program Alberta Request for Information (135,000 MWh) Alberta Indigenous Solar Program
Purpose of the Study By 2030, what size could the solar market be in Alberta? (System Level Approach) By 2030, what size could each market segment be in Alberta? (Market Segment Approach) Approaches System Level Approach Market Segment Approach A B C D E
Study Conclusions 4 6% of electricity from solar PV by 2030 is reasonable Policy and regulatory design will have major impacts on growth The residential sector is important for the Solar PV industry Utility scale solar PV will be the key factor for growth Three market segments are directly tied to microgeneration regulations Structual limitations may affect the commercial/industrial market segment Solar PV Ready requirements are needed in the commercial/industrial market segment Community based solar has a large potential (connecting at distribution level voltage)
How Alberta compares to Ontario 5 Alberta Ontario Factor Population 4.28 million 13.98 million 3x Number of singledetached houses (2011 Statistics Canada) Grid connected peak demand 883,265 2,718,880 3x 11,229 MW 20,836 MW 1.8x Installed Solar 16 MW DC 2,227 MW DC 139x Ontario market is significantly larger than Alberta in population, residences, grid connected peak demand. Alberta s peak demand is driven by industrial rather than residential load.
6 System Level Approach - 2030 A 3% of electricity supplied by solar PV B 6% of electricity supplied by solar PV
7 Analysis reveals that Solar PV could supply 6% of Alberta s Load by 2030 (up to 4.3 GW DC ) 19% 19% Installed Solar PV as a Percentage of Total Generating Capacity 16% 16% Installed Solar PV Capacity by 2030 % of Installed Total Capacity 8% Ontario - 2016 8% California - 2016 8% 8% 8% North Carolina - 2016 Arizona - 2016 Alberta A - 2030 Alberta B - 2030 8% 8% 8% A 3% of Load B 6% of Load (MW AC ) (MW DC ) 1,768 2,130 8% 3,536 4,260 16% Ontario - 2016 California - 2016 North Carolina - 2016 Arizona -2016 Alberta A - 2030 Alberta B - 2030
8 Installed Solar PV per Capita Comparison With Other Jurisdictions Alberta B - 2030 Alberta A - 2030 Germany - 2016 Arizona -2016 North Carolina - 2016 California - 2016 Ontario - 2016 193 317 391 418-100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 444 508 835 2016 Alberta has 4 watts per person 2016 Comparison Solar PV per capita ranges between 193 508 watts per person 2030 Alberta A and B range between 418-835 watts per person.
Implications of achieving 6% of energy from Solar PV 9 The analysis of the net-load for B in 2030 demonstrates Ramping requirements for conventional generation compared to the AESO Long Term Outlook scenario (no solar PV generation) increased in the winter (2x) similar in the summer Low risk for overgeneration and curtailment during summer or winter Solar generation contributes 14 percent of AESO load in the winter, 23 percent of AESO load in the summer at peak solar production.
10 Market Segment Approach C low growth rates based on announced programs D double the low growth rates E US growth rates
Market Segment Approach 11 Market Segments Microgeneration Regulation Community - Distribution Connected Utility Scale Residential Commercial/ Industrial Farm Five Market Segments identified Three fit under the current microgeneration regulation
Microgeneration Regulations in Alberta Affects Project Economics, Regulations are Designed to Match Load 12 Size Electricity Pricing of net production Wholesale Project over pricing, with time 5 MW ac of day pricing Service Charges No reduction in service charges Notes Not considered micro-generation, >5 MWac Electrical Panel M M 150-5 MWac Total Production Project size between 150kW ac to 5 MW ac Wholesale Pricing, with hourly pricing Ability to reduce service charges Large Microgeneration Electrica l Panel M Up to 150 kwac Net Production Project less than 150kW ac Retail Pricing Ability to reduce service charges Small Microgeneration 12 Electrical Panel M Net Production
13 2030 Microgeneration Market Potential (2,454 MW DC ) - after meeting structural, shading and ownership requirements Market Segment in 2030 Residential Market Commercial/Industrial Market Total number of potential buildings 315,000 residential rooftops 3,000 commercial/ industrial buildings Market Size Potential 1,890 MW DC 302 MW DC Farm Market 18,500 farms 262 MW DC TOTAL 2,454 MW DC
Residential Market Deployment by 2030 14 C D E 99 MW AC (120 MW DC ) 2.6% of all residences 172 MW AC (207 MW DC ) 4.5% of all residences 470 MW AC (566 MW DC ) 12% of all residences
Commercial Market Deployment by 2030 15 C D E 99 MW AC (120 MW DC ) 4% of all commercial/industrial buildings 172 MW AC (207 MW DC ) 7% of all commercial/industrial buildings 178 MW AC (214 MW DC ) 7% of all commercial/industrial buildings
Farm Market Deployment by 2030 16 C D E 12 MW AC (14 MW DC ) 1% of all farms 21 MW AC (25 MW DC ) 2% of all farms 9 MW AC (11 MW DC ) 1% of all farms
Community Market Deployment by 2030 17 C D E 174 MW AC (210 MW DC ) 311 MW AC (375 MW DC ) 322 MW AC (388 MW DC )
Utility Solar Market Deployment by 2030 18 C D E 996 MW AC (1200 MW DC ) 1909 MW AC (2300 MW DC ) 1727 MW AC (2080 MW DC )
Market Segment Analysis Results of C, D, E 19 Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC ) 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0 13 Total Projected Solar Capacity in C, D, and E 2,706 2585 1489 1379 832 867 393 284 240 13 13 2016 2020 2025 2030 Year C D E Significant range in deployment based on C,D,E (1379 to 2706) US based growth rates ( E) has the highest deployment rate Current based policies, if continued, have the lowest deployment rates
Market Segment Makeup 20 Utility 74% Residential 7% Commercial / Industrial 7% Farm 1% Community Generation 11% Utility scale sector dominates C, D, E Community generation has largest uncertainty in deployment, since current lack of policy
21 Summary of the Study
22 Barriers to Solar Development and Policies to Address Them Barrier Technical - Commercial/Industrial roof suitability Economic - Project economics Commercial - Access to low cost financing Organizational - Development competencies and industry capability Policy - Lack of programs for Community Solar Policies Changes to micro-gen to allow significant export volumes and more flexible ownership structures, require new commercial construction to be solar ready Incentives, Changes to Net Metering regulations, reduction of permitting costs, Improve financing access for home and commercial building owners, continue REP with solar carve-out, mandated RPS for industrial consumers and electricity retailers. Training programs, simplified permitting process Design a policy and regulatory framework for Community Solar
Summary of the s 23 Approach Year - 2030 Installed Solar PV Capacity (MW AC ) Installed Solar PV Capacity (MW DC ) System Level A 1,768 2,130 B 3,536 4,260 Market Segment C 1,379 1,662 D 2,584 3,114 E 2,706 3,260 Solar development Could exceed 4 GW DC by 2030 Not clear if the System Level approach is optimistic or the Market Segment approach is conservative.
Study Conclusions 24 6% of electricity from solar PV by 2030 is reasonable Policy and regulatory design will have major impacts on growth The residential sector is important for the Solar PV industry Utility scale solar PV will be the key factor for growth Three market segments are directly tied to microgeneration regulations Structual limitations may affect the commercial/industrial market segment Solar PV Ready requirements are needed in the commercial/industrial market segment Community based solar has a large potential (connecting at distribution level voltage)
Thank You Paula McGarrigle, Managing Director, Solas Energy Consulting www.solasenergyconsulting.com
26 APPENDIX
Winter Net Load analysis Ramps are manageable 27 Energy (MW) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Winter Net Load Analysis (Wind and Solar) - B - 2030 Winter AIL Minus Wind Winter Net Load (Variable) Curve Winter Average Solar Generation Net Load in B requires increased rampdown in mornings, increased ramp-up in evenings. 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour
Summer Net Load analysis Ramps are manageable 28 Energy (MW) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Summer Net Load Analysis (Wind and Solar) - B - 2030 Summer AIL Minus Wind Summer Net Load (Variable) Curve Summer Average Solar Generation B Summer ramps are less demanding than winter ramps due to resource profile 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour
29 Summer Net Load analysis Comparison of System Ramping Requirements With and Without Solar MW/hour Winter 2030 Generation Ramping Requirements 1500 1000 500 0-500 -1000 566-675 953 7am 9am 4pm 10pm 11pm Time of Day -449 MW/hour 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 Summer 2030 Generation Ramping Requirements 708 596 7am 9am 4pm 9pm 10pm 11pm -438 Time of Day -409 AESO (Zero Solar) B AESO (Zero Solar) B Winter ramping requirements with solar differ in timing and magnitude compared to no-solar scenario. Summer ramping requirements are similar to no-solar scenario.
30 Market Segment Analysis Comparison of Assumptions Market Sector C D: Double C E: US installation growth rate Residential 8 MW DC /year 16 MW DC /year 29% / year Commercial / Industrial 8 MW DC /year 16 MW DC /year 12% / year Farm 1 MW DC /year 2 MW DC /year 12% / year Community 15 MW DC / year 30 MW DC / year 12% / year Utility 100 MW DC / year 200 MW DC / year 27% / year
Market Segment Analysis Growth over Time 31 Solar Capacity - C Projected Growth - D 3000 Utility Scale 3000 Utility Scale 2500 Community 2500 Community Farm Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC) 2000 1500 1000 Farm Commercial/Industrial Residential Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC ) 2000 1500 1000 Commercial/Industrial Residential 500 500 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year Projected Solar Capacity (MW AC) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Utility Scale Community Farm Commercial/Industrial Residential Projected Growth - E Utility scale development dominates capacity in all scenarios Residential plays a larger role in E 500 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year