16TH ANNUAL ENERGY FORECASTING MEETING / EFG AUSTIN, TX APRIL 26-28, 2018 ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE MIKE RUSSO, ITRON, INC.
MONTHLY U.S. EV SALES Source: Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard, Inside EVs. 2016 Growth 37% 2017 Growth 26%
MONTHLY U.S. EV MARKET SHARE Sources: Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard, Inside EVs. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle Unit Retail Sales
TOP SELLING VEHICLES IN 2016 Source: USA Today, Kelly Blue Book
POPULAR MODELS Source: Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard, Inside EVs.» Approximately 200,000 vehicles were sold in 2017. Tesla accounted for 25% of all vehicle sales.
TOP 10 MODELS Model Units Sold in 2017 Cost Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly. Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.» Annual kwh is based on 12,000 miles driven» Range shown is for electric drive only Fuel Economy (kwh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kwh Tesla S 27,060 $ 73,000 32 218 3,840 Chevy Bolt 23,297 $ 36,620 28 238 3,360 Tesla X 21,315 $ 100,150 36 200 4,320 Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 $ 27,100 25 25 1,500 Chevy Volt 20,349 $ 33,220 31 53 1,860 Nissan LEAF 11,230 $ 30,680 30 107 3,600 Ford Fusion 9,632 $ 33,120 35 22 2,100 Ford C-Max 8,140 $ 27,120 35 20 2,100 BMW i3 6,276 $ 44,450 29 114 3,480 Fiat 500e 5,380 $ 31,800 30 84 3,600
TOP 10 MODELS Model Units Sold in 2017 Cost Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly. Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.» Annual kwh is based on 12,000 miles driven» Range shown is for electric drive only Fuel Economy (kwh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kwh Tesla S 27,060 $ 73,000 32 218 3,840 Chevy Bolt 23,297 $ 36,620 28 238 3,360 Tesla X 21,315 $ 100,150 36 200 4,320 Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 $ 27,100 25 25 1,500 Chevy Volt 20,349 $ 33,220 31 53 1,860 Nissan LEAF 11,230 $ 30,680 30 107 3,600 Ford Fusion 9,632 $ 33,120 35 22 2,100 Ford C-Max 8,140 $ 27,120 35 20 2,100 BMW i3 6,276 $ 44,450 29 114 3,480 Fiat 500e 5,380 $ 31,800 30 84 3,600
TESLA MODEL 3» Advertised base price of $35,000; before federal and state incentives» Range of 220-310 miles» With optional extended range battery ($9,000) and auto pilot ($5,000), cost approaches $50,000.» Currently a 12-18 month wait for vehicle delivery.
FEDERAL CREDIT» The tax credit is $2,500, for vehicles with at least 5 kwh of capacity, plus an additional $417 for each kwh in excess of 5 kwh. The maximum incentive is $7,500. Model Credit Tesla S $ 7,500 Chevy Bolt $ 7,500 Tesla X $ 7,500 Toyota Prius Prime $ 4,502 Chevy Volt $ 7,500 Nissan LEAF $ 7,500 Ford Fusion $ 4,007 Ford C-Max $ 4,007 BMW i3 $ 7,500 Fiat 500e $ 7,500
EXPIRATION OF FEDERAL CREDIT» Credit phases out for a manufacturer s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which 200,000 vehicles have been sold. Example 200,000 th Tesla sold August 5 th 2018 Phase out starts beginning of the second calendar quarter Phase out further reduced beginning of the fourth calendar quarter Full Credit Amount 50% of Credit 25% of Credit Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 2019
WHICH MANUFACTURE WILL HIT 200,000 FIRST? Units Sold in the U.S. Since 2009 Maker Prior to 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Ttl GM 7,671 23,461 23,633 21,260 19,046 28,887 43,893 4,327 172,178 Tesla 1,900 2,650 17,650 16,689 25,416 47,119 50,147 7,860 169,431 Nissan 9,674 9,819 22,610 30,200 17,269 14,006 11,230 1,045 115,853 Toyota 0 12,942 13,117 14,448 4,191 2,474 20,936 3,546 71,654 Ford 500 3,054 14,981 21,947 18,923 24,796 19,589 1,953 105,743 Source: Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard, Inside EVs.» General Motors and Tesla will likely hit the 200,000 mark at some point in 2018.» 2018 YTD includes sales through February.
EV SALES PROJECTIONS» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook EVs account for 7% of new vehicles sales in 2025 and 12% by 2040 12
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 13
REVISION OF PAST EIA EV FORECASTS» EIA Annual Energy Outlook Slowly becoming a believer 14
OTHER EV FORECASTS Sources: 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017, Energy Policy Simulator. 15
GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK» Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales shares in selected countries: 2010-2016 Source: Global EV Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, 2017. 16
GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK» Market share of electric cars in leading EV countries: 2016 Source: Global EV Outlook 2017, International Energy Agency, 2017. 17
FACTORS THAT IMPACT EV ADOPTION» Electric rates.» Pairing with PV system» Charging Infrastructure» State, Local, and Utility Incentives» Social Perception
BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EIA BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS Source: EIA AEO 2018
POLICY DRIVES ADOPTION: VERMONT» Vermont Utilities, in Conjunction with Nissan, offered: $10,000 dealer rebate on every Leaf (Nissan funded) $500-$1,200 Utility rebate Free Level 2 chargers w/ unlimited off-peak charging at flat rate $7,500 Federal Incentive» Out-of-pocket costs were as low as $11,300 for a new Leaf» As a result over 150 Nissan Leafs were sold in Vermont last summer: this represented 3.2% of all U.S. Leaf sales in a market with only 0.2% of the U.S. population.» Burlington VT dealership was #2 in Leaf sales in the nation, second only to San Francisco.
DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE? TEXAS 29,000 miles or 2.4 years» $0.12 per kwh» $2.29 per gallon of gasoline» $7,500 federal EV credit» $2,500 state EV Credit
DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE? MASSACHUSETTS 99,000 miles or 8.3 years» $0.24 per kwh» $2.45 per gallon of gasoline» $7,500 federal EV credit» $2,500 state EV Credit
WHAT ABOUT MAINTENANCE COSTS» EVs are regularly advertised as having lower maintenance costs than their gas counterparts Nissan Leaf maintenance schedule calls for annual brake fluid changes; approximately $125. Tesla s first year scheduled maintenance cost is $475-$625, depending on the model. 3 year maintenance plans can be purchased at a discount.» Gasoline vehicle maintenance costs can increase over time with procedures such as transmission fluid changes, brake pads (EVs brake components tend to last longer due to regenerative braking), and spark plug replacement.
CHARGING PROFILE Source: Joint IOU Electric Vehicle Load Research Report, filed with the Public Utilities Commission of the State of California, Dec 2016.» EV charging could have significant impact on peak particularly where solar is shifting the peak to the late afternoon and early evening.
IMPLICATIONS ON SYSTEM PROFILE» New England utility with projected EV sales of 40% of total vehicle sales» No EV incentive charging rate results in a 8% peak increase and moves the peak 3 hours into the evening.» Incentive rate would result in only a 2% peak increase.
USEFUL RESOURCES» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Fuel Economy www.fueleconomy.gov List all current EV and PHEV on sale; prices, driving range, and federal incentives» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Alternative Fuels Data Center www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric.html List of federal and state laws and incentives» Inside EVs www.insideevs.com National monthly sales data by make and model» Plugin Cars www.plugincars.com/ Buyers guide and vehicle reviews
THANK YOU BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS Mike Russo Michael.russo@itron.com 617.423.7660 X4 www.itron.com