Developing the Mayor s Transport Strategy 2017 A view from civil engineers

Developing the Mayor s Transport Strategy 2017 A view from civil engineers

What is the Mayor s Transport Strategy? The Mayor s Transport Strategy (MTS) is one of the Mayor s strategic policy frameworks effecting the future development of London. Alongside the London Plan (the Mayor s spatial strategy) and four other documents (covering the environment, economic development, accessibility and local implementation) the MTS is a key part of implementing the Mayor s vision for London. The MTS sets out an integrated strategy for London s transport system and is developed in conjunction with Transport for London (TfL), the boroughs and transport providers like Network Rail. It covers all forms of transport from walking and cycling to river and freight. The MTS also has an impact far greater than London s transport decision. With a transport budget of 10.4 billion 1, the Mayor is directly involved in determining how London manages issues like population growth, carbon emissions, employment, productivity and air quality. MTS 2001 MTS 2010 For example, the 2001 MTS under Ken Livingstone set out plans for the Congestion Charge and the transformation of the bus network, setting out TfL as a multi-modal agency. In 2010, Boris Johnson s MTS removed the Western Extension of the Congestion Charge Zone and was more modally agnostic, choosing to smooth traffic rather than promote other transport modes. 1 Transport for London Business Plan, Transport for London, December 2016

The MTS also provides the background for future infrastructure investments and sets out decisions on the prioritisation of upcoming projects. As a statutory document, all 32 boroughs are required to set out a local implementation plan showing how they will follow and develop the policies set out by the Mayor. A City for All Londoners 2 In October 2016, Mayor Sadiq Khan published a City for All Londoners. The document offered the first opportunity since his Manifesto to see what Mayor Khan will look to change. It reveals the Mayor s direction of travel, giving a good indication of what can be expected in the MTS and his other strategies. In particular, the document highlighted: New terminology The document introduced a number of new concepts and associated vocabulary. Good growth is mentioned throughout, referring to the principle that development and regeneration must be looked at holistically, taking into account the local amenities, availability of green spaces, quality of the environment and affordability. This means a shift to more mixed use developments and a renewed push for affordable housing. The Healthy Street is also a new term introduced in the document. This is a new approach to creating streets which promote active travel, have clean air and are safe. While this concept will be applied differently according to the location, examples such as the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street and the Rotherhithe to Canary Wharf cycle bridge are mentioned. Transport priorities In terms of transport, the document gave a number of infrastructure projects the Mayor would like to see brought forward, including East London river crossings, extension of the Tramlink and Overground and improved bus services. However, two projects are mentioned particularly frequently: Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo line extension to Lewisham, both of which are highlighted as key to providing additional capacity to the system. The devolution of suburban rail services, starting with Southeastern in 2018, is also mentioned as part of the Mayor s bid to the Government for further fiscal and transport powers. Energy and the environment Much of the environmental policies are focused on the two goals of improving air quality and making London a zero-carbon city by 2050. Before A City for All Londoners, Mayor Khan had announced the proposed T-charge, extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone and clean bus corridors. On energy, the document sets out 2 A City for All Londoners, GLA, November 2016

how the Mayor will create a roadmap to reduce carbon emissions to 2050 and will set up Energy for Londoners, a new agency focusing on smart meter roll out, supporting photovoltaic solar, retrofitting buildings and assisting in local community energy enterprises. The document does also mention moving towards a circular economy, ensuring the city is resilient to extreme weather conditions caused by climate change and the need to break down silos between different environmental sectors. Timeframe for the new MTS The development of the MTS began in late 2016 and will continue to an indicative end date of Autumn 2017. The development of the MTS consists of: 1. Pre Consultation Phase (January to April) Preliminary Engagement with stakeholders to develop MTS. 2. Statutory Consultation Phase (May to July) A draft MTS is produced and a statutory consultation of stakeholders is held. 3. Finalisation of the MTS (Autumn) A Review of the consultation responses and amendments to the MTS followed by a formal review of the document by the London Assembly.

The Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) London ICE works to be the voice of civil engineering. We do this through raising the profile of civil engineering in the media, developing policy positions on the key issues of the day and working with government to deliver improvements to our infrastructure and beyond. In the London region, ICE works with the Mayor, London Assembly Members, Councils and London Members of Parliament, providing impartial and expert advice on a range of issues. We have advised TfL on their plans for the Comprehensive Spending Review, responded to consultations on the Silvertown Tunnel and Crossrail 2 schemes and in the lead up to the 2016 Mayoral Elections we also published our Infrastructure for London Manifesto, detailing our recommendations for the next Mayor of London. On Monday 6 February 2017, ICE London held a MTS Workshop to hear the views of our members. Around 50 civil engineers attended, hearing from Lucinda Turner, Acting Director of Borough Planning and providing their feedback on the initial plans for the MTS. This document sets out a summary of their views, covering the three topics discussed at the event: Delivering Mode Shift How do we deliver modal shift and prioritise essential vehicles? How do we get buy in of London s residents and businesses? Tackling air quality & carbon emissions What are the next round of interventions needed to improve air quality? To what extent should carbon reduction be a driving force of the MTS? Investing in transport to deliver housing & jobs Balance between enhancing the existing system vs new infrastructure?

How can we promote good growth e.g. more sustainable travel? We will use the views and expertise of those members at the workshop in developing our thoughts on the MTS. ICE London will continue to work with the Mayor, GLA and TfL to assist in the development of the MTS and the other statutory strategies relating to the infrastructure sector. This document sets out ICE London s initial thoughts.

Delivering mode shift With limited space on the road, mode shift from private to public transport is essential. How can we get more people cycling, walking and using rail? Over the past 15 years there has been a steady shift from public to private transport as improvements to the network have been made. There has been a 39% increase in those using the Underground, a 78% increase for rail use, a 71% increase for bus use and a 125% increase in bike use. Simultaneously private vehicle use is down by 10%, although Light Goods Vehicles (LGV) use has increased. 3 Road space use TfL However, further mode shift is still required. Changes to the layout of roads, construction activity and the growth of delivery vehicles have meant that congestion is steadily rising. Many Londoners are committed to car use as they like having a convenient and reliable mode of transport, particularly in outer London. Overcrowding on the tube and rail network also poses a risk to London s transport system. Schemes like Crossrail, the Northern Line Extension and upgrade works to various stations and lines will help boost capacity. Yet, keeping up with demand is a big challenge in 2016/17 total journeys are forecast to reach 1.4 billion. 4 Bus services must also be re-examined and a bus review is currently being planned by TfL as part of the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street. Usage of buses has begun to fall. Bus 3 Transport for London data provided to ICE London for the workshop 4 TfL Budget 2016/17 and Business Plan, Transport for London, March 2017

journeys fell by 3.7% in the past year leading to a 2% fall in revenue. 5 This has been due to falling reliability of journey times and service. Taxis and private hire vehicles have also become cheaper and their ease of use has increased, possibly pulling travellers away from other forms of public transport and walking and cycling. Disruptive services like Uber have provided a new paradigm for London s transport system. Cycling growth continues to increase, assisted by the development of the 160 million cycle super highway improvements. However, there are concerns that this growth may plateau as cycling fails to attract those outside an already engaged group. Making the cycling community more diverse and open to those who have not previously considered it will remain a challenge. What do civil engineers think? A number of our members at the MTS session were keen for the transport system to be more rationalised to changing use throughout the day. Put simply, our members felt that a smarter transport system will allow TfL to do more with the assets it has. A number of measures to achieve this were mentioned: A modular bus system: Currently, there are only a set number of bus vehicle types meaning that some buses will be carrying spare capacity on their journeys. Modular buses that are able to add or remove new passenger space as and when required would be a much needed and new innovation. This will ensure that buses are not travelling across London and using road space half empty. A smarter congestion charge: The Congestion Charge Zone charges road users for day when they enter central London. A smarter congestion charging system could allow for vehicles to be charged varying rates depending on different factors. Vehicles could be charged by how long they spend in the charging zone, the time of day they are traveling or even how much pollution they will produce. By doing so, TfL could ensure that the congestion charge isn t a blunt instrument and instead actively incentivises less road use. An orbital rail link: Workshop members agreed that transport links in and out of central London has and continues to improve. They cited projects like Crossrail, the Northern Line Extension and proposed projects like Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo Line Extension as examples of better radial access. However, to reduce growing car use in outer London, members spoke about the need to increase connectivity via orbital rail links. 5 Transport for London Quarterly performance report, Quarter 1 2016/17, Transport for London

Tackling air quality & carbon emissions London is set to grow over the coming decade. But if it is to achieve good growth, the Capital must ensure it is able to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions, so that development does not come at the expense of the environment. Air quality has become a significant environmental concern for Londoners. Mayor Sadiq Khan has announced a package of measures including a 10 emissions surcharge, bringing forward of the Ultra-Low Emission Zone to 2019 and expanding it. On carbon emissions, Mayor Sadiq Khan has also committed to making London zero carbon by 2050, a goal that will require the decarbonisation of the transport system. The take up of ultra-low emission vehicles is currently less than 1%, but forecasts predict that light ultra-low vehicle use will increase by 2% in 2020, up to 10% by 2030 and to 25% by 2040. 6 TfL will need to consider how the take up of ultra-low emission vehicles can be sped up. This will also mean examining how TfL s full fleet of vehicles can be fully electrified, which may require costly and substantial upgrades to the Grid. Predicted NOx emissions 2020 TfL 6 Transport for London data provided to ICE London for the workshop

Whilst electrified car travel will reduce emissions, it is also not carbon neutral electric cars will put pressure on the Grid which may displace carbon generation, not remove it. This means that as electric vehicle technology becomes cheaper, TfL will need to ensure car use continues to fall overall. For heavy vehicles, the issue is a lack of ultra-low emissions vehicles on the market take up will be less than 1% in 2020 and 2030 and 5% by 2040. 7 With the rise of delivery goods vehicles and increases in construction work, TfL will need to consider how these vehicles can be integrated into road network to ensure they minimise pollutant and carbon emissions. What do civil engineers think? Members at the MTS Workshop provided some new ways in which TfL and the Mayor of London could reduce air pollutants and carbon emissions. They understood that a shift to electricity demand will put further strain on the National Grid and could lead to the outsourcing of carbon emissions and pollutants. They provided a number of ideas for the upcoming MTS: A greater focus on consolidation: Consolidation, whereby deliveries are brought together at a consolidation centre so that vehicles do not arrive to site half empty, should be more prevalent in London. TfL could take a bigger role in co-ordinating freight travel and possibly using the rail system and water network to make more deliveries. Changing people s behaviour: Making transport users aware of the impact of their travel options. TfL must work to show people what their carbon footprint is and how they can reduce it. Similarly, with air pollution, car users should be notified when there is high air pollution in the capital and dissuaded from travelling using private vehicles. Reducing the number of failed deliveries: A high percentage of deliveries to private homes are turned away as no one is available to accept them. TfL should work with the freight industry to understand how this can be reduced. Some delivery systems are better than others for example, food deliveries are likely to planned so someone is there to collect (this may be because food can go off, making it a time sensitive item to deliver). TfL should work to see how people can be incentivised to accept other deliveries in a similar way. This could involve locker deliveries at stations or possibly planning a charging system for those that do not accept first time deliveries. 7 Transport for London data provided to ICE London for the workshop

Investing in transport to deliver housing & jobs Housing demand has ballooned in London making land a highly valued commodity. The role of transport in development has become much more pivotal investment in transport infrastructure is now seen as a key way of spurring redevelopment and jobs. Currently, London is falling short of its target to build 50,000 homes a year, with only around 25,000 built annually in the last few years. With demand for housing in the Capital at a high, residents are seeing greater costs to buy and rent. Transport can play a key role in unlocking growth. In 2013, 48% of planning applications cited Crossrail as a key factor for development and housing delivery has been twice as fast around TfL stations. Delivering more transport hubs will be key in achieving housing growth Crossrail 2 has forecast that the new line could provide up to 200,000 new homes. 8 38 Opportunity Areas have been set up in order to spur housing growth. These are areas that have land available to build more housing and which could densify further. Many of these Opportunity Areas will rely on transport infrastructure investment, such as Old Oak Common and Park Royal which will have a station on both the High Speed Two and Crossrail lines. 8 Crossrail 2 website

Questions over density are also important. London, compared to other global cities is quite spread out and could develop housing and business clusters closer together. Advocates for this approach often favour the development of more high-rise districts within the Capital. Alternatively, London could seek to expand its borders, an issue that has been controversial due to the Green Belt, an area of land protected from further development. Jobs and economic growth is also a vital consideration. The Central Activities Zone (CAZ) in London is a centre of high productivity and growth, but there are questions over whether economic growth should be spread more across the city. Simultaneously, the new MTS must consider whether London should be a city where people commute into a central area or whether people should have jobs available closer to where they live. If London is to become more of a commuter city, decision makers in the wider South East will need to come together to build the new housing. With 5,700 acres of land, TfL has a significant role to play. How the Mayor of London can provide more housing at affordable rates with good transport links will determine if London is able to continue its successful growth. What do civil engineers think? At the MTS Workshop, our members recognised that there are a number of competing visions of how London could develop. They provided some ideas on what would ensure London continues to grow successfully: Crossrail 2 is vital: Crossrail 2 could support 60,000 new jobs across the UK supply chain while under construction and 200,000 jobs across London and the South East once operational. 9 The route from the South East to North West will unlock housing growth across South East England, especially in places like the Upper Lea Valley. Upgrades to the current system are as important as new infrastructure projects: Upgrades to the current transport system can often yield as big returns as new projects. For example, The New Tube for London programme, which will improve signalling, stations and provide more walkthrough access will increase capacity on the Piccadilly Line by 60%, on the Central and Bakerloo lines by 25% and on the Waterloo and City Line by up to 50%. 10 London needs to develop a courteous city model: However London develops, the city needs to be developed so that different methods of transport are not in conflict. This may mean separate cycle paths or providing more pedestrian routes and will be important in ensuring London remains a healthy place to live. 9 Crossrail 2 website 10 TfL Budget 2016/17 and Business Plan, Transport for London, March 2017

What next? ICE London will continue to work with the Mayor of London and TfL to find the best solutions for the MTS. We bring with us the expertise of all our 9,000 members and we want your thoughts and views. No matter what your level of experience or expertise in civil engineering, we want to hear your views on what you want from the MTS. How do you see your city developing? How do you think the transport system can be improved? What actions need to be achieved? Get in touch Email: max.sugarman@ice.org.uk View our website: www.ice.org.uk/london Join the debate on Twitter: @ICE London #ICEMTS17 Want to become a member of the ICE London Transport Expert Network? The London Transport Expert Network (TEN) contains a number of ICE London members with the expertise to assist the region in its public voice activities. TEN members are the first point of contact for issues relating to ICE London s policy and public affairs activity, providing a pool of expertise the Institution can use to promote transport infrastructure to policy makers, the media and the public. To become a member, email Max Sugarman at max.sugarman@ice.org.uk Acknowledgements ICE London would like to thanks all participants at the MTS Workshop, Lucinda Turner for speaking at the event and TfL for their assistance.